US market commentary
- Thread starter xpertstocktrader
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ajaskey
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ajaskey said:
Here is the shorter term. The SOX ran up 90 days from July. Then took a break, jumped up, and then finished a little lower at the end of the second 90 days. The short term box mid-point is around March 12th.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11013825462&a=83440460&listNum=2
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xpertstocktrader
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Market commentary for 02/20/2007
Good day!
We had a typical options expiration day. A whippy day with action that was not worth trading. Friday was a very high risk market with perhaps scalp trade possibilities. I found a number of interesting charts but there wasn't any momentum after the setup and they moved back to their consolidation areas. I believe that one of most important aspects to be successful trader is to recognize risk. Capital preservation is important and Friday was day to do something else.
I expect to see more action today. The charts are telling us the bulls are in favor and they look like they want break above daily/weekly resistances. For now only the SPY has the room until the daily equal move resistance area (blue line). The QQQQ coming to the weekly previous high resistance and DIA still have problems with daily channel resistance. Also, DIA finished under 20sma 60 min resistance area. If we look in the past this isn’t first try for DIA and QQQQ to break above resistance lines. The last time they attempted to move forward they finished with a reversal and came back into the range/channel support area. This isn’t a reason to be pessimistic but it is enough reason to be careful. For a possible breakout on the daily/weekly charts I would like to see a stronger pace and heavier volume. That would be a healthy breakout.
Our open positions continue to do well and my bias for next week is on the long side but with caution for the reasons mentioned above. Generally that means: The DIA break above daily/weekly channel, the QQQQ 20sma weekly bounce and the SPY weekly continuation (10sma hold very nice for now).
Good luck trading today!!!!
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007dia60.jpg
Ivica
Good day!
We had a typical options expiration day. A whippy day with action that was not worth trading. Friday was a very high risk market with perhaps scalp trade possibilities. I found a number of interesting charts but there wasn't any momentum after the setup and they moved back to their consolidation areas. I believe that one of most important aspects to be successful trader is to recognize risk. Capital preservation is important and Friday was day to do something else.
I expect to see more action today. The charts are telling us the bulls are in favor and they look like they want break above daily/weekly resistances. For now only the SPY has the room until the daily equal move resistance area (blue line). The QQQQ coming to the weekly previous high resistance and DIA still have problems with daily channel resistance. Also, DIA finished under 20sma 60 min resistance area. If we look in the past this isn’t first try for DIA and QQQQ to break above resistance lines. The last time they attempted to move forward they finished with a reversal and came back into the range/channel support area. This isn’t a reason to be pessimistic but it is enough reason to be careful. For a possible breakout on the daily/weekly charts I would like to see a stronger pace and heavier volume. That would be a healthy breakout.
Our open positions continue to do well and my bias for next week is on the long side but with caution for the reasons mentioned above. Generally that means: The DIA break above daily/weekly channel, the QQQQ 20sma weekly bounce and the SPY weekly continuation (10sma hold very nice for now).
Good luck trading today!!!!
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02202007dia60.jpg
Ivica
xpertstocktrader
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Market commentary for 02/22/2007
Good day!
I guess this week the QQQQ's will show some strength and the DIA will be the weak index. The SPY is in the middle, but on the daily and weekly charts it looks the best for the long side. We saw a very whippy day that brought us high risk trading. After the morning gap down and whippy start the QQQQ first filled the gap. The SPY for most of the morning had problems with 200sma 5 min resistance area. The DIA was the weakest index and after morning gap to the previous day low support area the rest of the day it tried to fill the gap, but the 20sma 60 min yesterday was to strong for that and finished day in negative territory under the 60 min resistance. On the 60 min chart we can see that DIA starting to have rounding highs and forming cup pattern. On the daily chart consolidations at highs and channel resistance slowly losing the battle. Blue lines showing action in the past and very easily we could see the same in the coming days. For the DIA 60 min support area (today and yesterday lows) are very important. On the other side, the QQQQ buying pace isn’t strong and with intraday whippy action look like to go to the previous daily resistance area (45.40 areas). That kind of action is not giving me faith for the swing move up to new highs. We have a situation when DIA is losing steam with rounding highs, the QQQQ buying pace is slow and without strong volume and SPY staying in the 60 min consolidation and finished day in negative area. Right now we don’t have a short setup and the action explained above does not give me any faith to the long side. Being conservative the reasons given above are enough for me to stay in a caution mode for today.
I will continue to monitor the market after the open. I will wait for a healthy intraday breakout in any direction and then after consolidation I will look for a continuation. I will miss first move but I will take the continuation and that way I will try to protect myself from any false breakouts.
Swing traders still have harder time for new setups right now and it is best to stay with open positions and follow the action. If open positions are doing well you can always add. Right now I will take swing possibility only with small risk. Safest side is with intraday moves and faster trades and those who are not good with that (like me) need to use patience until market will show us direction.
Good luck trading today!!!!
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007dia60.jpg
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
I guess this week the QQQQ's will show some strength and the DIA will be the weak index. The SPY is in the middle, but on the daily and weekly charts it looks the best for the long side. We saw a very whippy day that brought us high risk trading. After the morning gap down and whippy start the QQQQ first filled the gap. The SPY for most of the morning had problems with 200sma 5 min resistance area. The DIA was the weakest index and after morning gap to the previous day low support area the rest of the day it tried to fill the gap, but the 20sma 60 min yesterday was to strong for that and finished day in negative territory under the 60 min resistance. On the 60 min chart we can see that DIA starting to have rounding highs and forming cup pattern. On the daily chart consolidations at highs and channel resistance slowly losing the battle. Blue lines showing action in the past and very easily we could see the same in the coming days. For the DIA 60 min support area (today and yesterday lows) are very important. On the other side, the QQQQ buying pace isn’t strong and with intraday whippy action look like to go to the previous daily resistance area (45.40 areas). That kind of action is not giving me faith for the swing move up to new highs. We have a situation when DIA is losing steam with rounding highs, the QQQQ buying pace is slow and without strong volume and SPY staying in the 60 min consolidation and finished day in negative area. Right now we don’t have a short setup and the action explained above does not give me any faith to the long side. Being conservative the reasons given above are enough for me to stay in a caution mode for today.
I will continue to monitor the market after the open. I will wait for a healthy intraday breakout in any direction and then after consolidation I will look for a continuation. I will miss first move but I will take the continuation and that way I will try to protect myself from any false breakouts.
Swing traders still have harder time for new setups right now and it is best to stay with open positions and follow the action. If open positions are doing well you can always add. Right now I will take swing possibility only with small risk. Safest side is with intraday moves and faster trades and those who are not good with that (like me) need to use patience until market will show us direction.
Good luck trading today!!!!
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02222007dia60.jpg
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
xpertstocktrader
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- 874
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Market commentary for 02/23/2007
Good day!
Not much to write about yesterday. A weak gap up in the QQQQ to the daily/weekly previous high resistance area (45.40), the SPY new daily high and small DIA gap up. Unfortunately, there wasn't any follow through to bring the indices to new highs. The DIA weakness took control of the market and after morning consolidation, we saw an intraday move down. The rest of day, we saw whippy action without any direction. The DIA weakness stalled at the daily channel low support area (also 20sma daily support area). On the daily DIA chart history repeated and after few consolidation days (blue line on the daily chart) we saw a pullback. The SPY after morning gap up went back to the 60 min consolidation area and stayed there for the rest of day (under 20sma 60 min) while the QQQQ tried to go back morning highs. We ended up seeing another whippy day without clear direction. The QQQQ buying pace is still poor without any real volume. The SPY closed neutral and DIA is back to its support area. Maybe we will see the DIA bounce today from the daily support area and maybe that will provide enough steam for QQQQ and SPY. Perhaps we will see some continuation selling of the DIA. I do think that we don’t have a clear signal right now and my bias is neutral. That means I will stay with the same tactic that I have been using the last several days.
I will follow market action and then I will see. It is most important to trade light without full risk and reduce your number of trades. If I see some nice long trades I will start with small lots and if we see the market breakup then I will add to my positions.
Remember today is Friday so don't expect much after the market opening action.
Good luck trading today!!!!
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007dia60.jpg
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
Not much to write about yesterday. A weak gap up in the QQQQ to the daily/weekly previous high resistance area (45.40), the SPY new daily high and small DIA gap up. Unfortunately, there wasn't any follow through to bring the indices to new highs. The DIA weakness took control of the market and after morning consolidation, we saw an intraday move down. The rest of day, we saw whippy action without any direction. The DIA weakness stalled at the daily channel low support area (also 20sma daily support area). On the daily DIA chart history repeated and after few consolidation days (blue line on the daily chart) we saw a pullback. The SPY after morning gap up went back to the 60 min consolidation area and stayed there for the rest of day (under 20sma 60 min) while the QQQQ tried to go back morning highs. We ended up seeing another whippy day without clear direction. The QQQQ buying pace is still poor without any real volume. The SPY closed neutral and DIA is back to its support area. Maybe we will see the DIA bounce today from the daily support area and maybe that will provide enough steam for QQQQ and SPY. Perhaps we will see some continuation selling of the DIA. I do think that we don’t have a clear signal right now and my bias is neutral. That means I will stay with the same tactic that I have been using the last several days.
I will follow market action and then I will see. It is most important to trade light without full risk and reduce your number of trades. If I see some nice long trades I will start with small lots and if we see the market breakup then I will add to my positions.
Remember today is Friday so don't expect much after the market opening action.
Good luck trading today!!!!
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02232007dia60.jpg
Ivica Juracic
xpertstocktrader
Established member
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- 874
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Market commentary for 02/26/2007
Good day!
Friday started with selling right at the open. Most of the day brought range action which brought higher risk. Indices finished Friday’s action in the negative area with the DIA being the weakest. Selling pace was not strong and after slightly new low the rest of the day daily the channel support line held and we saw consolidation action.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007dia60.jpg
The SPY made slightly lower low too, and daily 20sma support area held very well. We didn’t see much of change from day before. Also on the 60 min chart we can see that consolidation area is holding for now.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007spy60.jpg
The QQQQ was strongest index again and Thursday lows held very well. All day the QQQQ stayed in range action and above 20sma 60 min support line (blue line). On the daily chart we still have double top pattern possibility and without daily consolidation every breakup will be high risk for a daily breakout.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007qqqq60.jpg
We are entering this week without a clear direction and the weekly charts signals are mixed. The QQQQ is strongest but still in dangerous of a double top resistance. The SPY made doji bar which is telling us that we can see a move in either direction. If the SPY breaks up it has room for a larger gain but if it breaks down it will bring us to several daily/weekly support areas.
If we look at DIA daily chart we can see that last several times the channel line held very nice and if we count on past activity then we can expect a bounce at the start of this week. That is one scenario that we can get and in that case, the DIA could help the other Indices to break up on new weekly highs which will be signal for the bulls. Another possibility is this time the DIA channel support area doesn't hold and that could be the trigger for the bears and a swing move down possibility. Perhaps even strong enough for a longer correction. From a technical analyst viewpoint we have the same % for both scenarios. Right now we are in the middle of those possibilities and overall risk will remain higher until market decides what to do. I like the weekly chart of the SPY and QQQQ for long direction, but after several months of an uptrend to see a low risk setup we need to see a longer direction. That is for a low risk setup and market the doesn’t care about that. From the market action we can decide what risk we want to use in this situation. Right now we are in high risk market and for new swing setups and the best risk now is going with intraday moves. For swing traders we have several ways how to trade this market. One is to wait and manage open swing positions and until market shows us direction we must wait in cash. Another way I use is to take new swing trades with smaller risk and only after the market shows its direction I add to my positions.
I don’t have strong bias for today for the reasons explained above. I think that we have same chance for a move in either direction. I will just follow the market action and I will limit my risk for new setups.
It is also important is to cut the number of trades, because right now there is a high risk of overtrading.
Good day!
Friday started with selling right at the open. Most of the day brought range action which brought higher risk. Indices finished Friday’s action in the negative area with the DIA being the weakest. Selling pace was not strong and after slightly new low the rest of the day daily the channel support line held and we saw consolidation action.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007dia60.jpg
The SPY made slightly lower low too, and daily 20sma support area held very well. We didn’t see much of change from day before. Also on the 60 min chart we can see that consolidation area is holding for now.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007spy60.jpg
The QQQQ was strongest index again and Thursday lows held very well. All day the QQQQ stayed in range action and above 20sma 60 min support line (blue line). On the daily chart we still have double top pattern possibility and without daily consolidation every breakup will be high risk for a daily breakout.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02262007qqqq60.jpg
We are entering this week without a clear direction and the weekly charts signals are mixed. The QQQQ is strongest but still in dangerous of a double top resistance. The SPY made doji bar which is telling us that we can see a move in either direction. If the SPY breaks up it has room for a larger gain but if it breaks down it will bring us to several daily/weekly support areas.
If we look at DIA daily chart we can see that last several times the channel line held very nice and if we count on past activity then we can expect a bounce at the start of this week. That is one scenario that we can get and in that case, the DIA could help the other Indices to break up on new weekly highs which will be signal for the bulls. Another possibility is this time the DIA channel support area doesn't hold and that could be the trigger for the bears and a swing move down possibility. Perhaps even strong enough for a longer correction. From a technical analyst viewpoint we have the same % for both scenarios. Right now we are in the middle of those possibilities and overall risk will remain higher until market decides what to do. I like the weekly chart of the SPY and QQQQ for long direction, but after several months of an uptrend to see a low risk setup we need to see a longer direction. That is for a low risk setup and market the doesn’t care about that. From the market action we can decide what risk we want to use in this situation. Right now we are in high risk market and for new swing setups and the best risk now is going with intraday moves. For swing traders we have several ways how to trade this market. One is to wait and manage open swing positions and until market shows us direction we must wait in cash. Another way I use is to take new swing trades with smaller risk and only after the market shows its direction I add to my positions.
I don’t have strong bias for today for the reasons explained above. I think that we have same chance for a move in either direction. I will just follow the market action and I will limit my risk for new setups.
It is also important is to cut the number of trades, because right now there is a high risk of overtrading.
ajaskey
Well-known member
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- 281
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- 12
ammo said:
Yes, March 9th. In addition to the semis setting up, the brokers are pulling back nicely into the end of time.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XBD&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&id=p80274164513&a=80532257&listNum=2
xpertstocktrader
Established member
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Market commentary for 02/27/2007
Good day!
The market gapped up yesterday and that was it. We filled the gap and continued with selling pressure the rest of the morning. On the DIA 60 min chart we can see how important the 200sma area is. The DIA hasn't closed under the 200sma during its entire uptrend and you can see the support it holds. The daily channel was a support area too.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007dia60.jpg
The SPY had similar kind of action as DIA. It made a slightly lower low but was still the strongest index. The 60 min range area and daily channel (blue lines) support areas were still strong enough and held all selling pressures.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007spy60.jpg
Yesterday the QQQQ wasn’t as strong as last week and the 60 min triangle broke down. Daily double top hold last week QQQQ tried to see new highs and right now first daily support is 10sma and 44.75 support area (previous resistance now is support)
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007qqqq60.jpg
Overall, we didn’t see any real change on the daily chart. All indices closed almost at the same area as Friday’s close. This time QQQQ was weakest index unlike last week when it was the strongest and needed more activity for correction. If anyone read my commentary yesterday then I can just copy/past rest of it. We still don’t have clear signal. The QQQQ daily resistance is still holding and SPY/DIA daily support area is holding. That is frustrating because we have longer time frame that is whippy without a healthy trend. Despite the poor market our swings are doing well since there always will be opportunities.
Right now it is much harder to find new ideas and that is telling us something about the market. Each night scanning and preparing the watch list and the market action we can feel the market pulse. My watch list is small and that tells me we don’t have a predictable direction. I will use patience and I will wait, especially right at market open. Since DIA and SPY are at support areas I will favor a short direction, but because of my past experience I won’t bet heavily on that.
Risk remains high the same as yesterday. Cash is a position also and patience is your friend.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
The market gapped up yesterday and that was it. We filled the gap and continued with selling pressure the rest of the morning. On the DIA 60 min chart we can see how important the 200sma area is. The DIA hasn't closed under the 200sma during its entire uptrend and you can see the support it holds. The daily channel was a support area too.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007dia60.jpg
The SPY had similar kind of action as DIA. It made a slightly lower low but was still the strongest index. The 60 min range area and daily channel (blue lines) support areas were still strong enough and held all selling pressures.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007spy60.jpg
Yesterday the QQQQ wasn’t as strong as last week and the 60 min triangle broke down. Daily double top hold last week QQQQ tried to see new highs and right now first daily support is 10sma and 44.75 support area (previous resistance now is support)
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02272007qqqq60.jpg
Overall, we didn’t see any real change on the daily chart. All indices closed almost at the same area as Friday’s close. This time QQQQ was weakest index unlike last week when it was the strongest and needed more activity for correction. If anyone read my commentary yesterday then I can just copy/past rest of it. We still don’t have clear signal. The QQQQ daily resistance is still holding and SPY/DIA daily support area is holding. That is frustrating because we have longer time frame that is whippy without a healthy trend. Despite the poor market our swings are doing well since there always will be opportunities.
Right now it is much harder to find new ideas and that is telling us something about the market. Each night scanning and preparing the watch list and the market action we can feel the market pulse. My watch list is small and that tells me we don’t have a predictable direction. I will use patience and I will wait, especially right at market open. Since DIA and SPY are at support areas I will favor a short direction, but because of my past experience I won’t bet heavily on that.
Risk remains high the same as yesterday. Cash is a position also and patience is your friend.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
xpertstocktrader
Established member
- Messages
- 874
- Likes
- 6
Market commentary for 03/01/2007
Good day!
February is over and the Indices finished right at the December 2006 start. In other words, in one day, the market lost everything what made in three months. Yesterday's action didn't bring any big changes and we saw a consolidation day. Since today is the beginning of a new month, it is always good to look at the monthly charts to see the bigger picture. On all three charts, we can see a nice move up from May 2006. Those who have followed me from the beginning can remember that I have been looking for a correction for the last several weeks. Looking on the monthly chart nothing terrible happened and the market is just entering a monthly correction. Key word is monthly, and that means we can have that kind of action for several months. The QQQQ has already been consolidating for three months and we can see that the support area is still holding, while the DIA and the SPY (with Tuesday's action ) just started that process. We can't tell after one bar, what kind of a correction we will have, but if the support area will not hold, (red line) I believe that we a have higher possibility to see more of a correction and that the Indices will see the 10/20sma monthly support areas. Because of that action, the future days will be very important. I have read many comments on the reasons why we had that strong selling as well as what to expect from here. Some say that this is just temporary and others say that it is just the start of a recession and a bigger move down. From my chart analysis, I can say that both directions are very possible; from a bounce to highs to more selling, A quick move up to daily highs isn't the usual action and that is not what I will expect for the next few days. Maybe after a daily consolidation, but I will not expect that for this week. My basic prediction came from the consolidation and the action prior to that consolidation. Right now, it is impossible to predict the future from the chart action (at least for me) because Tuesday selling was unusual. Because of that, I will keep my trading small and with small risk. This is not the usual market action and so I will act accordingly.
With yesterday's action, the QQQQ stayed under the 100sma resistance area and above the price support area. Both areas are important for the next day activity. Breaking under the support area could bring more panic in the market, but it is also very possible could have a trap and bounce up. Intraday action wasn't interesting. We saw a consolidation day, which is quite normal after the strong moves we saw on Tuesday.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...qqqqmonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...3012007qqqq.jpg
The SPY showed us similar action. It was the strongest and part of day it traded above the 100sma (brown line), but finished under it, as did the other indices.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...7spymonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...03012007spy.jpg
The DIA brought the biggest panic on Tuesday and resistance is the same on the daily chart, 100sma. After the morning bounce of the day finished near the open, so saw little change.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...7diamonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...03012007dia.jpg
It is possible that many are frustrated because we didn't see a big bounce and capitalize on recouping some losses, but this is normal action and I think that we will see more back and forth action this week. Because of that, I will expect that risk will remain high until the market is back into usual trading activity without extremely large bars.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
February is over and the Indices finished right at the December 2006 start. In other words, in one day, the market lost everything what made in three months. Yesterday's action didn't bring any big changes and we saw a consolidation day. Since today is the beginning of a new month, it is always good to look at the monthly charts to see the bigger picture. On all three charts, we can see a nice move up from May 2006. Those who have followed me from the beginning can remember that I have been looking for a correction for the last several weeks. Looking on the monthly chart nothing terrible happened and the market is just entering a monthly correction. Key word is monthly, and that means we can have that kind of action for several months. The QQQQ has already been consolidating for three months and we can see that the support area is still holding, while the DIA and the SPY (with Tuesday's action ) just started that process. We can't tell after one bar, what kind of a correction we will have, but if the support area will not hold, (red line) I believe that we a have higher possibility to see more of a correction and that the Indices will see the 10/20sma monthly support areas. Because of that action, the future days will be very important. I have read many comments on the reasons why we had that strong selling as well as what to expect from here. Some say that this is just temporary and others say that it is just the start of a recession and a bigger move down. From my chart analysis, I can say that both directions are very possible; from a bounce to highs to more selling, A quick move up to daily highs isn't the usual action and that is not what I will expect for the next few days. Maybe after a daily consolidation, but I will not expect that for this week. My basic prediction came from the consolidation and the action prior to that consolidation. Right now, it is impossible to predict the future from the chart action (at least for me) because Tuesday selling was unusual. Because of that, I will keep my trading small and with small risk. This is not the usual market action and so I will act accordingly.
With yesterday's action, the QQQQ stayed under the 100sma resistance area and above the price support area. Both areas are important for the next day activity. Breaking under the support area could bring more panic in the market, but it is also very possible could have a trap and bounce up. Intraday action wasn't interesting. We saw a consolidation day, which is quite normal after the strong moves we saw on Tuesday.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...qqqqmonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...3012007qqqq.jpg
The SPY showed us similar action. It was the strongest and part of day it traded above the 100sma (brown line), but finished under it, as did the other indices.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...7spymonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...03012007spy.jpg
The DIA brought the biggest panic on Tuesday and resistance is the same on the daily chart, 100sma. After the morning bounce of the day finished near the open, so saw little change.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...7diamonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams...03012007dia.jpg
It is possible that many are frustrated because we didn't see a big bounce and capitalize on recouping some losses, but this is normal action and I think that we will see more back and forth action this week. Because of that, I will expect that risk will remain high until the market is back into usual trading activity without extremely large bars.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
xpertstocktrader
Established member
- Messages
- 874
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- 6
Market commentary for 03/02/2007
Good day!
Unfortunately, on Thursday we saw very exaggerated market action which led to a high risk, choppy environment. After a stronger gap down in the morning, the 5 min QQQQ chart made a false breakdown and trapped quite a number of traders. That was all the morning weakness we saw. After the 15 min reversal period, the market bounced and with the help of the 10:00am economic report the gap filled very quickly. Unfortunately, that was all the market action that we got. The rest of day the 60 min resistance held and with consolidation, the indices came up to the 20sma 60 min resistance area. Yesterday that resistance area was too strong for a breakout. Since Tuesday's selling was extremely strong, we still must wait to see what daily and intraday resistance area the market activity will bring. . For now, the market looks confused and because of that risk will remain high. My bias was with the bulls today, and it will be the same for the next few days. I will look for a bounce from the strong daily/monthly support area. That will be my focus, but I will follow the market action as usual. Right now, it is best to stick with intraday moves because risk is lower there. The main problem for the daily charts right now is the 100sma resistance area (brown line). The reason for my bullish bias is Thursday's action. With a gap down and new daily lows, I would expect that the market did what it likes to do and that is to trap the short traders who missed all this selling and were inpatient to wait for a new move down. We could also see profit taking and that could bring some buyers back, because they don’t want miss the possible bottom. This is just a possible scenario and bias. The important thing, as always in this kind of environment, is to stay with low risk trading .
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007dia60.jpg
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
Unfortunately, on Thursday we saw very exaggerated market action which led to a high risk, choppy environment. After a stronger gap down in the morning, the 5 min QQQQ chart made a false breakdown and trapped quite a number of traders. That was all the morning weakness we saw. After the 15 min reversal period, the market bounced and with the help of the 10:00am economic report the gap filled very quickly. Unfortunately, that was all the market action that we got. The rest of day the 60 min resistance held and with consolidation, the indices came up to the 20sma 60 min resistance area. Yesterday that resistance area was too strong for a breakout. Since Tuesday's selling was extremely strong, we still must wait to see what daily and intraday resistance area the market activity will bring. . For now, the market looks confused and because of that risk will remain high. My bias was with the bulls today, and it will be the same for the next few days. I will look for a bounce from the strong daily/monthly support area. That will be my focus, but I will follow the market action as usual. Right now, it is best to stick with intraday moves because risk is lower there. The main problem for the daily charts right now is the 100sma resistance area (brown line). The reason for my bullish bias is Thursday's action. With a gap down and new daily lows, I would expect that the market did what it likes to do and that is to trap the short traders who missed all this selling and were inpatient to wait for a new move down. We could also see profit taking and that could bring some buyers back, because they don’t want miss the possible bottom. This is just a possible scenario and bias. The important thing, as always in this kind of environment, is to stay with low risk trading .
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03022007dia60.jpg
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
ajaskey
Well-known member
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If you look at the first few pages of my charts you will see that almost everything is at a logical place in price (meaning, completely expected). Some like the semis (which I view as the "market") are in perfect position in both price and time.
I think the ETF/futures trade has moved the indices abnormally. The underlying charts still look great.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1744189
The SOX relative strength is very good and was great during Tuesday.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1744189&cmd=show[s86710695]&disp=P
The internet stocks look even better on RS. This is the opposite of what I would expect near a top.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1744189&cmd=show[s86710702]&disp=P
I think the ETF/futures trade has moved the indices abnormally. The underlying charts still look great.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1744189
The SOX relative strength is very good and was great during Tuesday.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1744189&cmd=show[s86710695]&disp=P
The internet stocks look even better on RS. This is the opposite of what I would expect near a top.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1744189&cmd=show[s86710702]&disp=P
xpertstocktrader
Established member
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Market commentary for 03/05/2007
Good day!
Friday was very slow day that continued very weak. Thursday’s low is holding and on the other side 100sma daily resistance is very strong. The DIA opened with small gap down and most of the time small gaps are filled right at the open which did happen. On the 30 min chart you can see that DIA has a problem with 20sma (blue line) last several days. The 20sma on the 60 min is very close and until we will see DIA under that resistance area it will be very hard to expect any real bounce possibility. On the daily/weekly chart we can see that December 2006 low area holding. On the 60 min charts we can see that volume decline and for now with that action I expect a rounding bottom action this week. Since we saw extremely strong move on the daily chart I will expect that kind of bottom (rounding lows) will be acting on the same time frame. I continue to expect the same action the next several days
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007dia30.jpg
The SPY had similar action on Friday with small gap down at the open. On the 30 min chart we can see similar action and the daily/weekly charts look almost the same. From a technical analyst daily view everything for the QQQQ looks the same for the SPY too. Friday’s finished under Tuesday low support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007spy30.jpg
The QQQQ was weakest index Friday and had biggest morning gap but it was still small enough to be filled right at the open. The QQQQ has problems with 20sma on the 30 min too. Every try for now finished with move down. On the daily chart the QQQQ is right now on the strong weekly support area. On the 60 min chart we can see that volume decline too. I have concern for a rounding bottom possibility on the QQQQ.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007qqqq30.jpg
I don’t have a strong bias for this week and I think that we will need more time perhaps weeks for the market to decide where it wants to go. If weekly support areas do not hold I expect a continued correction until 50sma support area. In addition, we can see rounding lows on the daily charts and bounce back to lower daily high which will bring more daily whippy action. I think it will be guessing to predict market direction as a technical analyst right now. The one thing I do know is risk and swing traders have very high risk. There are always opportunities and there will be "own way" stocks like OEH, but in this market it will not be easy to find them. Swing traders need to use patience and wait for better market action. Limiting risk being fast traders (scalp traders) is where I will be focused until market will improves. Right now I’m not interested for new short trades and if there are some, it will be only for day trade purposes. I think the market is extended for swing shorts and needs more consolidation for that opportunity.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
Friday was very slow day that continued very weak. Thursday’s low is holding and on the other side 100sma daily resistance is very strong. The DIA opened with small gap down and most of the time small gaps are filled right at the open which did happen. On the 30 min chart you can see that DIA has a problem with 20sma (blue line) last several days. The 20sma on the 60 min is very close and until we will see DIA under that resistance area it will be very hard to expect any real bounce possibility. On the daily/weekly chart we can see that December 2006 low area holding. On the 60 min charts we can see that volume decline and for now with that action I expect a rounding bottom action this week. Since we saw extremely strong move on the daily chart I will expect that kind of bottom (rounding lows) will be acting on the same time frame. I continue to expect the same action the next several days
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007dia30.jpg
The SPY had similar action on Friday with small gap down at the open. On the 30 min chart we can see similar action and the daily/weekly charts look almost the same. From a technical analyst daily view everything for the QQQQ looks the same for the SPY too. Friday’s finished under Tuesday low support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007spy30.jpg
The QQQQ was weakest index Friday and had biggest morning gap but it was still small enough to be filled right at the open. The QQQQ has problems with 20sma on the 30 min too. Every try for now finished with move down. On the daily chart the QQQQ is right now on the strong weekly support area. On the 60 min chart we can see that volume decline too. I have concern for a rounding bottom possibility on the QQQQ.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03052007qqqq30.jpg
I don’t have a strong bias for this week and I think that we will need more time perhaps weeks for the market to decide where it wants to go. If weekly support areas do not hold I expect a continued correction until 50sma support area. In addition, we can see rounding lows on the daily charts and bounce back to lower daily high which will bring more daily whippy action. I think it will be guessing to predict market direction as a technical analyst right now. The one thing I do know is risk and swing traders have very high risk. There are always opportunities and there will be "own way" stocks like OEH, but in this market it will not be easy to find them. Swing traders need to use patience and wait for better market action. Limiting risk being fast traders (scalp traders) is where I will be focused until market will improves. Right now I’m not interested for new short trades and if there are some, it will be only for day trade purposes. I think the market is extended for swing shorts and needs more consolidation for that opportunity.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
xpertstocktrader
Established member
- Messages
- 874
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- 6
Market commentary for 03/06/2007
Good day!
We had a trading day that at best can be described as difficult. High risk setups and choppy action suitable for scalp trading only.
The DIA was weak and closed under Friday’s low, but still above Thursday low and for now is support. Intraday action was the same on all three Indices. The 30 min chart we can see that the 20sma is still a resistance area and every try to break above that resistance area failed. After the morning gap down at daily low support area the DIA bounced to 30 min resistance area. The rest of the day was consolidation with two attempts to break 20sma. But since DIA didn’t have the strength, last 30 min we saw a move down to the low support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007dia30.jpg
The SPY showed us similar intraday action and we saw that the 20sma on the 30 min is the same strong support area that has held the last few days. The difference is the SPY closed on new daily lows.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007spy30.jpg
The QQQQ closed on a new daily low also. Intraday action was the same. After the morning gap, the QQQQ filled gap very soon and hit 20sma 30 min resistance area. With choppy intraday action, it tried one more time and in the last 30 min we saw selling to the morning low support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007qqqq30.jpg
The indices closed very weak. The SPY and the QQQQ made (and closed) at new daily lows, while DIA closed barely above its daily low. We didn't have a strong intraday selling pace but without strength all Indices closed at lows and that indicates to us the 30/60 min pennants/triangle will break lower. Unfortunately I don’t see and new LOW RISK short setups, but market bias in on short side. I see the Indices have more room for another daily move down to the 200sma support area on the daily chart. That is also 50sma weekly support areas. Without enough intraday/daily consolidation, time always is harder to find good swing setup, but right now day traders have higher risk market also. Bias is definitely on short side, but since market is extended we can see bounce and stronger 30/60 min correction any time.
Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
Good day!
We had a trading day that at best can be described as difficult. High risk setups and choppy action suitable for scalp trading only.
The DIA was weak and closed under Friday’s low, but still above Thursday low and for now is support. Intraday action was the same on all three Indices. The 30 min chart we can see that the 20sma is still a resistance area and every try to break above that resistance area failed. After the morning gap down at daily low support area the DIA bounced to 30 min resistance area. The rest of the day was consolidation with two attempts to break 20sma. But since DIA didn’t have the strength, last 30 min we saw a move down to the low support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007dia30.jpg
The SPY showed us similar intraday action and we saw that the 20sma on the 30 min is the same strong support area that has held the last few days. The difference is the SPY closed on new daily lows.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007spy30.jpg
The QQQQ closed on a new daily low also. Intraday action was the same. After the morning gap, the QQQQ filled gap very soon and hit 20sma 30 min resistance area. With choppy intraday action, it tried one more time and in the last 30 min we saw selling to the morning low support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03062007qqqq30.jpg
The indices closed very weak. The SPY and the QQQQ made (and closed) at new daily lows, while DIA closed barely above its daily low. We didn't have a strong intraday selling pace but without strength all Indices closed at lows and that indicates to us the 30/60 min pennants/triangle will break lower. Unfortunately I don’t see and new LOW RISK short setups, but market bias in on short side. I see the Indices have more room for another daily move down to the 200sma support area on the daily chart. That is also 50sma weekly support areas. Without enough intraday/daily consolidation, time always is harder to find good swing setup, but right now day traders have higher risk market also. Bias is definitely on short side, but since market is extended we can see bounce and stronger 30/60 min correction any time.
Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
xpertstocktrader
Established member
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- 874
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- 6
Market commentary for 03/07/2007
Good day!
With the lack of volume yesterday a large part of the rally was probably short covering verses a reversal of the trend. The indices gapped up in the morning above the 20sma 30 min resistance area, which was a strong area the last few days. With the gap up that resistance area, become support. Yesterday was strong enough to hold market action and for rest of day we saw intraday uptrend move. The DIA was strongest index yesterday. On the 60 min chart we can see that triangle was broken right at open with the gap up and 20sma 60 min wasn’t a big resistance for the DIA. All day pace was strong but the lack of volume concerned me. On the 60 min chart the volume is still declining and that is what I expected if the DIA was in a downtrend. With the morning gap and continued uptrend I expected stronger volume to confirm the possibility that the bears are history for now.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007dia60.jpg
The SPY showed similar action as DIA. The 60 min triangle (pennant) was different. Both indices finished the day above the daily support area, which is important support area for this week.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007spy60.jpg
The QQQQ was weakest again and on the 60 min chart, we can see similar action. Pace was much weaker and despite yesterdays trend day we stayed with a bad feeling. On the 60 min chart, the open we saw a kind of trap yesterday, because the Indices opened above triangles and Monday’s close suggested that we could see gap down yesterday. Since the Indices opened outside of 60 min triangle in a different direction that brought some panic for short traders.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007qqqq60.jpg
Right now, the biggest problem is volume. I will stay with caution in today trading. In addition, the buying pace is weaker than the selling pace on the QQQQ charts. All that indicates the Market is just in a process of consolidation, which is relief from the strong selling the last few days. That does not mean the trend is changing on the daily chart. Daily/weekly support area is still strong and it will be interesting to see if it can hold for rest of week. Risk will remain higher and I will stay with intraday action. To stay bullish right now the 20sma 60 min is very important support area for Indices. If it holds we could see more upward correction the next few days. Some swing trades possibilities on the horizon but I would like to see today’s open before I will bring any setup. I think we saw the daily low for next few days and that we will see more of a correction. I will follow the market as usual and bring opportunities as they present themselves.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
With the lack of volume yesterday a large part of the rally was probably short covering verses a reversal of the trend. The indices gapped up in the morning above the 20sma 30 min resistance area, which was a strong area the last few days. With the gap up that resistance area, become support. Yesterday was strong enough to hold market action and for rest of day we saw intraday uptrend move. The DIA was strongest index yesterday. On the 60 min chart we can see that triangle was broken right at open with the gap up and 20sma 60 min wasn’t a big resistance for the DIA. All day pace was strong but the lack of volume concerned me. On the 60 min chart the volume is still declining and that is what I expected if the DIA was in a downtrend. With the morning gap and continued uptrend I expected stronger volume to confirm the possibility that the bears are history for now.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007dia60.jpg
The SPY showed similar action as DIA. The 60 min triangle (pennant) was different. Both indices finished the day above the daily support area, which is important support area for this week.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007spy60.jpg
The QQQQ was weakest again and on the 60 min chart, we can see similar action. Pace was much weaker and despite yesterdays trend day we stayed with a bad feeling. On the 60 min chart, the open we saw a kind of trap yesterday, because the Indices opened above triangles and Monday’s close suggested that we could see gap down yesterday. Since the Indices opened outside of 60 min triangle in a different direction that brought some panic for short traders.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007qqqq60.jpg
Right now, the biggest problem is volume. I will stay with caution in today trading. In addition, the buying pace is weaker than the selling pace on the QQQQ charts. All that indicates the Market is just in a process of consolidation, which is relief from the strong selling the last few days. That does not mean the trend is changing on the daily chart. Daily/weekly support area is still strong and it will be interesting to see if it can hold for rest of week. Risk will remain higher and I will stay with intraday action. To stay bullish right now the 20sma 60 min is very important support area for Indices. If it holds we could see more upward correction the next few days. Some swing trades possibilities on the horizon but I would like to see today’s open before I will bring any setup. I think we saw the daily low for next few days and that we will see more of a correction. I will follow the market as usual and bring opportunities as they present themselves.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
xpertstocktrader
Established member
- Messages
- 874
- Likes
- 6
Market commentary for 03/08/2007
Good day!
Very choppy slow day. Good news is the indices are still above the 20sma 60 min support area. If the selling from the 15:00ET reversal time continues today at the open they will slip below that support.
The DIA started with weakness at the open, but 20sma 30 min held that opening weakness and bounced to new highs. That was a slightly higher high and we call that a double top pattern. Pace was slow all day and the volume is still declining. The 30 min double top did very nice and after 15:00ET reversal time started to move down. On the 30 min charts, we can see that selling pace was much stronger than the move up. That is something that suggests more correction at the open today. The DIA finished the day basically flat.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03082007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03082007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03082007dia30.jpg
The SPY showed again very similar action as DIA. Same support and resistance areas.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007spy30.jpg
The QQQQ continued to be the weakest index. On the 30 min chart, we can clearly see a double top pattern. On the daily chart QQQQ started with range action in the support area (red lines) and it will be interesting today if that range area will hold.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007qqqq30.jpg
I’m still worried about volume on long side. After 15:00 ET, we can see that volume started to increase and the selling brought a much stronger pace than Tuesday and yesterdays move up. Those are signs that bears are still here and for now still holding market action in their hands. After a choppy move up the indices gave back all the gains in last hour and finished the day flat. I think that we have room for more selling today especially in the morning. For that to happen we need to break the 20sma 60 min stronger support area. The next couple of days I expect the Indices to remain in a daily range action and that action reflects a higher risk.
The bulls and the bears each a strong story for their position but personally no one can predict which direction we are going in. I will wait for the daily consolidation first and then we will see. I will stick with intraday moves and open swings like SYMC, FLR and NX with smaller risk. Don't overtrade, it is easy to do. Risk is high and we will always have opportunities.
Remember we have the jobs report before the market opens on Friday so take that into consideration with any overnight holds today.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
Very choppy slow day. Good news is the indices are still above the 20sma 60 min support area. If the selling from the 15:00ET reversal time continues today at the open they will slip below that support.
The DIA started with weakness at the open, but 20sma 30 min held that opening weakness and bounced to new highs. That was a slightly higher high and we call that a double top pattern. Pace was slow all day and the volume is still declining. The 30 min double top did very nice and after 15:00ET reversal time started to move down. On the 30 min charts, we can see that selling pace was much stronger than the move up. That is something that suggests more correction at the open today. The DIA finished the day basically flat.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03082007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03082007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03082007dia30.jpg
The SPY showed again very similar action as DIA. Same support and resistance areas.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007spy30.jpg
The QQQQ continued to be the weakest index. On the 30 min chart, we can clearly see a double top pattern. On the daily chart QQQQ started with range action in the support area (red lines) and it will be interesting today if that range area will hold.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007qqqq60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03072007qqqq30.jpg
I’m still worried about volume on long side. After 15:00 ET, we can see that volume started to increase and the selling brought a much stronger pace than Tuesday and yesterdays move up. Those are signs that bears are still here and for now still holding market action in their hands. After a choppy move up the indices gave back all the gains in last hour and finished the day flat. I think that we have room for more selling today especially in the morning. For that to happen we need to break the 20sma 60 min stronger support area. The next couple of days I expect the Indices to remain in a daily range action and that action reflects a higher risk.
The bulls and the bears each a strong story for their position but personally no one can predict which direction we are going in. I will wait for the daily consolidation first and then we will see. I will stick with intraday moves and open swings like SYMC, FLR and NX with smaller risk. Don't overtrade, it is easy to do. Risk is high and we will always have opportunities.
Remember we have the jobs report before the market opens on Friday so take that into consideration with any overnight holds today.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
xpertstocktrader
Established member
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Market commentary for 03/09/2007
Good day!
That was nice gap in the morning and crap after 14:00 ET reversal time. Indices opened above Wednesday high and that should have brought some buyers because we basically saw a daily bear trap. That did not happen. We saw a small move up after morning gap and consolidation until 14:00ET reversal period and did it crap out.
The DIA opened above 10sma daily resistance area and brought a small run at the open until it hit the strong daily resistance which was the 100sma. The index didn’t have strength to move further up. The 20sma 60 min support area again was key for the afternoon move down. That is always an important support/resistance area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007dia60.jpg
What to say about SPY action? When I look daily and intraday charts I must be careful because the action is identical with DIA. The SPY finished day slightly under the 10sma on the daily chart.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007spy60.jpg
The QQQQ was the weakest again. It is far away from the 100sma on the daily chart and 10sma is stronger resistance. Despite the nice gap in the morning and the afternoon weakness the QQQQ closed above the 20sma 60 min.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007qqqq60.jpg
Volume is still light and that continues to worry me. I don’t feel this daily bounce is a new direction. It might be but without an increase in volume I doubt it. I believe the daily low will hold this week, and I believe that 100sma daily resistance area will hold this week also. That is the area where I expect to see a possible daily consolidation. Market is still affected by last weeks panic selling and it is having difficulty finding a direction. The 100sma daily is a strong resistance area and that is also the weekly 20sma resistance area. You all know that the 20sma is an important support/resistance area for me on any time frame chart.
I don’t have strong bias for today. I will be more on the short side at the open and I will expect the Indices will end up back in the middle of daily range. I will follow the volume and see if it improves. That will tell us about the market breadth. Remember today is Friday and usually we can expect tradable morning. After that things calm down and for the rest of day volume is usually light and that is not where I’m active. Of course I will follow the market action and bring possible day trades to the trading room. Open swing longs are doing well for now. For open swings now I want to have “own way”. That means that will not react with market action. Risk remains higher for swing traders and still best to stick with intraday action.
Remember this morning is the jobs report and that usually is a market mover. We also might get some resolution from the sub prime lending fiasco with NEW filing for chapter 11.
Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]
Good day!
That was nice gap in the morning and crap after 14:00 ET reversal time. Indices opened above Wednesday high and that should have brought some buyers because we basically saw a daily bear trap. That did not happen. We saw a small move up after morning gap and consolidation until 14:00ET reversal period and did it crap out.
The DIA opened above 10sma daily resistance area and brought a small run at the open until it hit the strong daily resistance which was the 100sma. The index didn’t have strength to move further up. The 20sma 60 min support area again was key for the afternoon move down. That is always an important support/resistance area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007dia60.jpg
What to say about SPY action? When I look daily and intraday charts I must be careful because the action is identical with DIA. The SPY finished day slightly under the 10sma on the daily chart.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007spy60.jpg
The QQQQ was the weakest again. It is far away from the 100sma on the daily chart and 10sma is stronger resistance. Despite the nice gap in the morning and the afternoon weakness the QQQQ closed above the 20sma 60 min.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/03092007qqqq60.jpg
Volume is still light and that continues to worry me. I don’t feel this daily bounce is a new direction. It might be but without an increase in volume I doubt it. I believe the daily low will hold this week, and I believe that 100sma daily resistance area will hold this week also. That is the area where I expect to see a possible daily consolidation. Market is still affected by last weeks panic selling and it is having difficulty finding a direction. The 100sma daily is a strong resistance area and that is also the weekly 20sma resistance area. You all know that the 20sma is an important support/resistance area for me on any time frame chart.
I don’t have strong bias for today. I will be more on the short side at the open and I will expect the Indices will end up back in the middle of daily range. I will follow the volume and see if it improves. That will tell us about the market breadth. Remember today is Friday and usually we can expect tradable morning. After that things calm down and for the rest of day volume is usually light and that is not where I’m active. Of course I will follow the market action and bring possible day trades to the trading room. Open swing longs are doing well for now. For open swings now I want to have “own way”. That means that will not react with market action. Risk remains higher for swing traders and still best to stick with intraday action.
Remember this morning is the jobs report and that usually is a market mover. We also might get some resolution from the sub prime lending fiasco with NEW filing for chapter 11.
Good luck trading today!!!!
I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
[email protected]