US market commentary
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firewalker99
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Doubt these things happen in one single day. I prefer to see some selling over a couple of days. But Mondays tend to be negative territory so who knows. Asia did it's part overnight but last two hours has been sideways consolidating around 11800. Still a long way to go, but I've got patience
Cheers FW
Good Trading
Hs
I'm expecting an "OMG moment" in US to bring us down to form higher low or perhaps marginal break of overnight lows... .... then we'll see........Doubt these things happen in one single day. I prefer to see some selling over a couple of days. But Mondays tend to be negative territory so who knows. Asia did it's part overnight but last two hours has been sideways consolidating around 11800. Still a long way to go, but I've got patience
Good Trading
Hs
xpertstocktrader
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Market commentary for 03/18/2008
Good day!
Indecision continued. I tried to explain in Monday's commentary why it is very risky to be active on days like this and why we can expect the same for this week. Because of that I just watched Monday's action and I feel good about it because we saw another whippy trading day. The day started with a strong gap down and everything looked ready for selling continuation. But again the indices did the opposite. The DIA was the leader and filled its' gap in about 90 minutes. The QQQQ was the weakest and didn’t filled its' gap but was very close to doing that. After the opening strength, the market was not strong enough to hold that area and consolidate for any kind of buying continuation possibility. Instead the market traded all the way back down and on the next move the QQQQ, the weakest indice, saw new lows while the DIA formed a slightly higher low. This was enough to bring the indices back again to the morning highs.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03182008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/031892008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03182008qqqq60.jpg
Generally it was an up-down-up day. There just was not enough time for another down move. The market had a half move down before the end of the trading day. On the daily charts we can see that the DIA and the QQQQ formed double bottoms, while the SPY reached its' January low and bounced from it. It is too early but right now it looks like a possible weekly double bottom. Volume was high again and right now it is impossible to predict the action with a good % to be right. You all know that I use pace and volume a lot for my trading. When we have a day where buying pace is the same as selling pace and same again as buying pace, my style says the best idea is to stay with cash as my position.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03182008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03182008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03182008qqqq.jpg
I believe that on Tuesday everyone will wait for the FED announcement. I will stay in the same mode as yesterday. I still think that there are too many situations out there with panic and emotions and that can move the market in any direction without reason. Because of that best I believe it will best to wait until things settle down. I think we are not far away from that (week or two). The best scenario is to allow the panic to play out so we can be finished with it and start again. We will see. We can expect some possible action in the morning, then choppy doldrums time and usually very whippy action after the FED announcement. I don’t expect that we will see any big moves before the FED announcement, but again, usually I have a bias when the market action can be predictable after TA, but when emotions move the market then is impossible for me to have bias. For the end of this commentary I would like to repeat again: CASH IS A POSITION TOO. Please don’t forget that.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Ivica
[email protected]
Good day!
Indecision continued. I tried to explain in Monday's commentary why it is very risky to be active on days like this and why we can expect the same for this week. Because of that I just watched Monday's action and I feel good about it because we saw another whippy trading day. The day started with a strong gap down and everything looked ready for selling continuation. But again the indices did the opposite. The DIA was the leader and filled its' gap in about 90 minutes. The QQQQ was the weakest and didn’t filled its' gap but was very close to doing that. After the opening strength, the market was not strong enough to hold that area and consolidate for any kind of buying continuation possibility. Instead the market traded all the way back down and on the next move the QQQQ, the weakest indice, saw new lows while the DIA formed a slightly higher low. This was enough to bring the indices back again to the morning highs.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03182008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/031892008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03182008qqqq60.jpg
Generally it was an up-down-up day. There just was not enough time for another down move. The market had a half move down before the end of the trading day. On the daily charts we can see that the DIA and the QQQQ formed double bottoms, while the SPY reached its' January low and bounced from it. It is too early but right now it looks like a possible weekly double bottom. Volume was high again and right now it is impossible to predict the action with a good % to be right. You all know that I use pace and volume a lot for my trading. When we have a day where buying pace is the same as selling pace and same again as buying pace, my style says the best idea is to stay with cash as my position.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03182008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03182008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03182008qqqq.jpg
I believe that on Tuesday everyone will wait for the FED announcement. I will stay in the same mode as yesterday. I still think that there are too many situations out there with panic and emotions and that can move the market in any direction without reason. Because of that best I believe it will best to wait until things settle down. I think we are not far away from that (week or two). The best scenario is to allow the panic to play out so we can be finished with it and start again. We will see. We can expect some possible action in the morning, then choppy doldrums time and usually very whippy action after the FED announcement. I don’t expect that we will see any big moves before the FED announcement, but again, usually I have a bias when the market action can be predictable after TA, but when emotions move the market then is impossible for me to have bias. For the end of this commentary I would like to repeat again: CASH IS A POSITION TOO. Please don’t forget that.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Ivica
[email protected]
firewalker99
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xpertstocktrader
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Market commentary for 03/20/2008
Good day!
Wednesday was an interesting day in that the indices were down considerably, however, the drop didn't seem to be that concerning. The FED did two things that surprised the markets. By only lowering the discount rate 75 basis points and a very strong statement that they are concerned and are going to act aggressively to curb inflation had a very strong reaction on the dollar. With the stronger dollar the entire commodity complex started to sell. Gold was down 60 dollars, Oil was down 6 dollars, copper, aluminum, etc was also down 5 to 10 percent. Commodity stocks were being liquidated or profit taking causing the DOW to be the weakest with Oil and Aluminum stocks in the index. We will have to see if the dollar's strength continues but eventually that will be good for the overall economy and the rest of the market.
The action Wednesday is the reason overnight trades after announcement FED are very high risk. True open was positive and the morning action was strong and brought the indices to new highs. The SPY and the QQQQ broke out from the 60 min range. After the correction from the high and the bounce to the lower 15 min high around noon the indices backed most Tuesday's gain and closed day at Tuesday low support area. We can clearly see that on the 60 min charts that we are back in the middle of the 60 min range. The DIA was weakest and filled Tuesday gap while the SPY and the QQQQ still have room for that. I am expecting that the SPY and the QQQQ will do that at the open Thursday morning.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008qqqq60.jpg
Unfortunately if anyone thinks we have seen the bottom might be disappointed. However if the QQQQ and SPY hold my thoughts from the opening statement may hold true. All the indices closed weak at lows. The DIA still has 10sma as support area, while the SPY and the QQQQ closed under all moving averages. If Tuesday gap won't hold, then very easily indices will retest previous low support area. Also we can see on the daily charts that indices action is very whippy with bigger mixed red and green bars. If you anyone remembers that I told that worst what we can expect will be daily/weekly rounding low pattern, right now the odds for that increase. Try to imagine a bigger time frame with small time frame and you will see that is a possible case. We can expect that daily whippy action will continue. If that is the case the scalp market will continue.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008qqqq.jpg
That is just one scenario. It will be clearer next week. We must concentrate on Thursday action first. It is last trading day before extended Holiday week. It is option expiration day. Look again on the daily charts, whippy action and big range bars. All that suggests is trading will be high risk. If anyone remembers Monday's commentary when I told you this week is great time for vacation, I still think that. Tomorrow we can expect whippy intraday action and there are two ways to survive that market action. One is with using bigger stops and be faster with taking profits. Another is cash and not trading. That is what I am going to do. Right now I don't have any bias and more and more I think that we could see the rounding action on the daily charts. I really hope that won't happen. Protect your account for new market opportunities. I will use this opportunity to wish you all a very nice holiday. I wish you all Happy Easter for those who will celebrate it and great long weekend for others.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Ivica
[email protected]
Good day!
Wednesday was an interesting day in that the indices were down considerably, however, the drop didn't seem to be that concerning. The FED did two things that surprised the markets. By only lowering the discount rate 75 basis points and a very strong statement that they are concerned and are going to act aggressively to curb inflation had a very strong reaction on the dollar. With the stronger dollar the entire commodity complex started to sell. Gold was down 60 dollars, Oil was down 6 dollars, copper, aluminum, etc was also down 5 to 10 percent. Commodity stocks were being liquidated or profit taking causing the DOW to be the weakest with Oil and Aluminum stocks in the index. We will have to see if the dollar's strength continues but eventually that will be good for the overall economy and the rest of the market.
The action Wednesday is the reason overnight trades after announcement FED are very high risk. True open was positive and the morning action was strong and brought the indices to new highs. The SPY and the QQQQ broke out from the 60 min range. After the correction from the high and the bounce to the lower 15 min high around noon the indices backed most Tuesday's gain and closed day at Tuesday low support area. We can clearly see that on the 60 min charts that we are back in the middle of the 60 min range. The DIA was weakest and filled Tuesday gap while the SPY and the QQQQ still have room for that. I am expecting that the SPY and the QQQQ will do that at the open Thursday morning.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008qqqq60.jpg
Unfortunately if anyone thinks we have seen the bottom might be disappointed. However if the QQQQ and SPY hold my thoughts from the opening statement may hold true. All the indices closed weak at lows. The DIA still has 10sma as support area, while the SPY and the QQQQ closed under all moving averages. If Tuesday gap won't hold, then very easily indices will retest previous low support area. Also we can see on the daily charts that indices action is very whippy with bigger mixed red and green bars. If you anyone remembers that I told that worst what we can expect will be daily/weekly rounding low pattern, right now the odds for that increase. Try to imagine a bigger time frame with small time frame and you will see that is a possible case. We can expect that daily whippy action will continue. If that is the case the scalp market will continue.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03202008qqqq.jpg
That is just one scenario. It will be clearer next week. We must concentrate on Thursday action first. It is last trading day before extended Holiday week. It is option expiration day. Look again on the daily charts, whippy action and big range bars. All that suggests is trading will be high risk. If anyone remembers Monday's commentary when I told you this week is great time for vacation, I still think that. Tomorrow we can expect whippy intraday action and there are two ways to survive that market action. One is with using bigger stops and be faster with taking profits. Another is cash and not trading. That is what I am going to do. Right now I don't have any bias and more and more I think that we could see the rounding action on the daily charts. I really hope that won't happen. Protect your account for new market opportunities. I will use this opportunity to wish you all a very nice holiday. I wish you all Happy Easter for those who will celebrate it and great long weekend for others.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Ivica
[email protected]
xpertstocktrader
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There isn't a time when emotions do not move the market
agree with you. I just think that now take full control and TA is not that usefull as usual. Agree with you.
xpertstocktrader
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Market commentary for 03/24/2008
Good day!
After a weak Wednesday close with the indices reaching their intraday support areas (60 min), we saw strength on Thursday. The day started with weakness at the open, but the selling pace was choppy, slow and on light volume which made me suspect of taking short trades and going with the market action. Soon the indices bounced which was the start of a nice recovery after the strong selling pressure from the day before. Since it was options expiration day, we took several short and long trades and most of them did well. On the 60 min charts we can see that the indices made lower highs and the SPY/QQQQ closed under its' 200ma resistance area. Volume was lighter which was expected because of the long holiday weekend. We can see that the 60 min whippy range action continued and we can't really determine from it what to expect for Monday's action.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008qqqq60.jpg
It is the end of the week so let’s take a look at the daily charts. We saw another large range bar, however, this time it was red. Over the last two weeks we can see that the action is very whippy without any trend direction. The action suggests that this daily indecision will continue over the next week too. Wednesday's high is the first resistance area for the DIA and the QQQQ, while the SPY has its' 50sma resistance area as well. Last week's volume is stronger which also suggest the bottoming process. I still think that the odds for rounding lows are higher. Unfortunately there is nothing new to add from the last few commentaries.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008qqqq.jpg
On the weekly charts we can see that the double bottom is holding very nicely, but we have a number of resistance areas right above. The DIA has its' 10, 100, and 200sma. The SPY has its' 10 and 20sma and the QQQQ has its' 10 and 100sma. On the other side the DIA still has room to reach its' 200sma weekly support area. We definitely do not have a clear direction for the near future. From my experience and with the number of resistance areas close overhead, the weekly charts are another reason why I see increasing odds for a rounding bottom on the daily charts.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008qqqqweekly.jpg
I think that the indices saw or they are very close to weekly/monthly lows. We do still, however, have the possibility for another DIA move down into its' 200sma support area. But for now definitely I think the bottom AREA is around. So far I don’t see strong bounces with heavy volume which will be the proof of a bottom and because of this reason I will stay in the same mode. I think that the bottoming process has started and now we must see where it leads us. Until the charts give us direction I think that every overnight trade will be higher risk, because the indices could continue with one day green, next day red bar action. Focus will stay on intraday trades and I will scan for the strongest and weakest names. I wish you all a nice holiday and long weekend and hope you all will have a wonderful time.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Ivica
[email protected]
Good day!
After a weak Wednesday close with the indices reaching their intraday support areas (60 min), we saw strength on Thursday. The day started with weakness at the open, but the selling pace was choppy, slow and on light volume which made me suspect of taking short trades and going with the market action. Soon the indices bounced which was the start of a nice recovery after the strong selling pressure from the day before. Since it was options expiration day, we took several short and long trades and most of them did well. On the 60 min charts we can see that the indices made lower highs and the SPY/QQQQ closed under its' 200ma resistance area. Volume was lighter which was expected because of the long holiday weekend. We can see that the 60 min whippy range action continued and we can't really determine from it what to expect for Monday's action.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008qqqq60.jpg
It is the end of the week so let’s take a look at the daily charts. We saw another large range bar, however, this time it was red. Over the last two weeks we can see that the action is very whippy without any trend direction. The action suggests that this daily indecision will continue over the next week too. Wednesday's high is the first resistance area for the DIA and the QQQQ, while the SPY has its' 50sma resistance area as well. Last week's volume is stronger which also suggest the bottoming process. I still think that the odds for rounding lows are higher. Unfortunately there is nothing new to add from the last few commentaries.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008qqqq.jpg
On the weekly charts we can see that the double bottom is holding very nicely, but we have a number of resistance areas right above. The DIA has its' 10, 100, and 200sma. The SPY has its' 10 and 20sma and the QQQQ has its' 10 and 100sma. On the other side the DIA still has room to reach its' 200sma weekly support area. We definitely do not have a clear direction for the near future. From my experience and with the number of resistance areas close overhead, the weekly charts are another reason why I see increasing odds for a rounding bottom on the daily charts.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03242008qqqqweekly.jpg
I think that the indices saw or they are very close to weekly/monthly lows. We do still, however, have the possibility for another DIA move down into its' 200sma support area. But for now definitely I think the bottom AREA is around. So far I don’t see strong bounces with heavy volume which will be the proof of a bottom and because of this reason I will stay in the same mode. I think that the bottoming process has started and now we must see where it leads us. Until the charts give us direction I think that every overnight trade will be higher risk, because the indices could continue with one day green, next day red bar action. Focus will stay on intraday trades and I will scan for the strongest and weakest names. I wish you all a nice holiday and long weekend and hope you all will have a wonderful time.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Ivica
[email protected]
ajaskey
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xpertstocktrader
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Market commentary for 03/25/2008
Good day!
Monday brought a strong move up, especially for the QQQQ. Unfortunately the volume was not that strong and Monday was a great day for the market and open long trades, but it was not a great day for new setups. The reason for that was there were several resistance areas that the indices had to overcome and there was not enough room for low risk setups. My point is to find low risk setups and on the 60 min charts we can see the reasons for that. After a strong move up from the daily lows from last Wednesday, the indices correction was stronger than we like to see and that suggested the possibility for triangle type action. Thursday's action was long and because of the correction type Wednesday's high was a stronger resistance area and that was the first reason why risk was higher yesterday after the open. Since the indices opened with a gap up there was not much room for a move up before Wednesday's high.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008qqqq60.jpg
The next resistance for the SPY and the QQQQ was the daily 50sma, another strong resistance area, and after all that the indices started with their intraday consolidation and that held for the rest of the day. Generally, after that move up in the morning, risk was high because of the resistance areas and the rest of the day risk stayed higher because of the daily resistance area. On the daily charts we can see that the QQQQ was much stronger and reached its' 60 min equal move. The SPY and the DIA have room for another move up.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008qqqq.jpg
We could see strength on Tuesday but also we could see a divergence because the QQQQ daily CCI is over 200 (+200) which suggests an overbought area, while the SPY and the DIA have room for another move up. My bias for Tuesday is on the long side, but we can also be prepared for a possible daily correction. Odds for possible daily/weekly rounding lows are still here and my focus will stay on intraday setups.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Ivica
Good day!
Monday brought a strong move up, especially for the QQQQ. Unfortunately the volume was not that strong and Monday was a great day for the market and open long trades, but it was not a great day for new setups. The reason for that was there were several resistance areas that the indices had to overcome and there was not enough room for low risk setups. My point is to find low risk setups and on the 60 min charts we can see the reasons for that. After a strong move up from the daily lows from last Wednesday, the indices correction was stronger than we like to see and that suggested the possibility for triangle type action. Thursday's action was long and because of the correction type Wednesday's high was a stronger resistance area and that was the first reason why risk was higher yesterday after the open. Since the indices opened with a gap up there was not much room for a move up before Wednesday's high.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008qqqq60.jpg
The next resistance for the SPY and the QQQQ was the daily 50sma, another strong resistance area, and after all that the indices started with their intraday consolidation and that held for the rest of the day. Generally, after that move up in the morning, risk was high because of the resistance areas and the rest of the day risk stayed higher because of the daily resistance area. On the daily charts we can see that the QQQQ was much stronger and reached its' 60 min equal move. The SPY and the DIA have room for another move up.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03252008qqqq.jpg
We could see strength on Tuesday but also we could see a divergence because the QQQQ daily CCI is over 200 (+200) which suggests an overbought area, while the SPY and the DIA have room for another move up. My bias for Tuesday is on the long side, but we can also be prepared for a possible daily correction. Odds for possible daily/weekly rounding lows are still here and my focus will stay on intraday setups.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Ivica
xpertstocktrader
Established member
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Market commentary for 03/26/2008
Good day!
A quick look at the daily charts will tell all about the intraday action on Tuesday. It was an NR7 bar, meaning the narrowest bar in the last seven days. That is always an opportunity for a trend day the next day. On the 60 min charts, we will see the reasons. All day we saw a divergence between the strongest QQQQ and the weakest DIA. That increased risk in an already high risk range action. On the 60 min charts we can see that the DIA and the SPY are forming triangle pattern and without the QQQQ chart my bias would be absolutely on the long side. But when I see yesterday's QQQQ third buying wave and when I see the buying pace I must be more conservative with a long bias. The QQQQ daily CCI is still in overbought area (over 200) and yesterday we saw a third choppy buying wave on lighter volume. The QQQQ suggests that a correction is close.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03262008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03262008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03262008qqqq60.jpg
If you remember, I mentioned in yesterday's commentary that we could see a divergence between the stronger QQQQ and the weaker DIA. The same applies for tomorrow. The SPY and the DIA have room for another 60 min move up (3rd buying wave), while the QQQQ already saw 3 buying waves and it is in overbought area. The DIA and SPY 60 min charts will be important to watch. If they will hold above their 20sma's odds for another buying wave will increase. If they break under this level, then we could see a selling synergy and the start of a daily correction. Right now the problem is that the last moves up on the daily charts were with decreasing volume and that is not what we like to see. That means less and less interest for the long side. If we add that to the still open odds for a daily /weekly rounding lows possibility, then we must be prepared for several selling days.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03262008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03262008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0326008qqqq.jpg
I know that sounds “smart” but right now we have 50/50 odds for the 60 min direction. We could see another pop up, but we could also see a reversal. I drew that on the 60 min charts (purple line). Whatever does happen, I think that risk for swing moves up is too high and before that possibility we must see a daily correction. Of course anything can happen. There will always be “own way” charts and they don’t care about the market action. Since we saw an NR7 bar, odds for a trend day are higher. Usually we mark the 60 min high/low and whichever direction is broken is typically the trend direction. I don’t know for sure what the market will do, but for now I’m prepared for possible strength in the morning and then I will look for a reversal. Again this is one scenario and we will see after the open. For now, staying with intraday moves is the safest way.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Ivica
Good day!
A quick look at the daily charts will tell all about the intraday action on Tuesday. It was an NR7 bar, meaning the narrowest bar in the last seven days. That is always an opportunity for a trend day the next day. On the 60 min charts, we will see the reasons. All day we saw a divergence between the strongest QQQQ and the weakest DIA. That increased risk in an already high risk range action. On the 60 min charts we can see that the DIA and the SPY are forming triangle pattern and without the QQQQ chart my bias would be absolutely on the long side. But when I see yesterday's QQQQ third buying wave and when I see the buying pace I must be more conservative with a long bias. The QQQQ daily CCI is still in overbought area (over 200) and yesterday we saw a third choppy buying wave on lighter volume. The QQQQ suggests that a correction is close.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03262008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03262008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03262008qqqq60.jpg
If you remember, I mentioned in yesterday's commentary that we could see a divergence between the stronger QQQQ and the weaker DIA. The same applies for tomorrow. The SPY and the DIA have room for another 60 min move up (3rd buying wave), while the QQQQ already saw 3 buying waves and it is in overbought area. The DIA and SPY 60 min charts will be important to watch. If they will hold above their 20sma's odds for another buying wave will increase. If they break under this level, then we could see a selling synergy and the start of a daily correction. Right now the problem is that the last moves up on the daily charts were with decreasing volume and that is not what we like to see. That means less and less interest for the long side. If we add that to the still open odds for a daily /weekly rounding lows possibility, then we must be prepared for several selling days.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03262008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03262008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0326008qqqq.jpg
I know that sounds “smart” but right now we have 50/50 odds for the 60 min direction. We could see another pop up, but we could also see a reversal. I drew that on the 60 min charts (purple line). Whatever does happen, I think that risk for swing moves up is too high and before that possibility we must see a daily correction. Of course anything can happen. There will always be “own way” charts and they don’t care about the market action. Since we saw an NR7 bar, odds for a trend day are higher. Usually we mark the 60 min high/low and whichever direction is broken is typically the trend direction. I don’t know for sure what the market will do, but for now I’m prepared for possible strength in the morning and then I will look for a reversal. Again this is one scenario and we will see after the open. For now, staying with intraday moves is the safest way.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Ivica
xpertstocktrader
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Market commentary for 03/31/2008
Good day!
Another week is gone and the rounding lows pattern is more and more possible. Friday was another untradeable day. The choppy action started right after the open and continued until the end of day with more weakness again on the DIA/SPY side. We can see that on the 60 min charts. The QQQQ stayed in a channel while the DIA and the SPY broke down under it. Volume was light and under average.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq60.jpg
This kind of market action is expected after we see declining volume on an upside move from lows. It also brings higher odds for rounding lows on the daily charts. For that possibility the indices need to break under all their daily moving average support and break near the daily lows. The SPY closed under its' 20sma 5 min, while the DIA closed above it and the QQQQ is obviously the strongest and closed above it’s 10sma support area. As traders we must recognize risk level and it is very high. The reason for that is the number of support and resistance areas in a very small area and anyone of them can be trigger a reversal. We can clearly see that on the daily charts
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq.jpg
On the weekly charts we can see that the DIA bounced from its' 20/100sma resistance area. The SPY bounced from its' 10sma and its' 200sma support area is very close, and the QQQQ bounced from its' 100sma and closed above its' 10sma. That is another example of the number of close support and resistance areas. All that increases odds for more of this kind of action with daily bounces between the previous highs and lows (range action)
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq.jpg
Monday will be a very important day for that possibility. If we will see another selling day then very possibly the indices will retest their lows. If we see a strong reversal then odds for new highs will increase. My bias is, unfortunately, more daily choppy action with more weakness. A weekly pivot is another possibility as well. That is all that the charts are suggesting as possibilities and scenarios. All this indecision creates this very high risk environment, especially for swing trades and overnight trades. It is important to see a move in the right direction to even consider holding a position overnight and in addition it should be done only with reasonable lots. Intraday action and trading plans based on smaller time frames will be lower risk and therefore will be my focus. I will again scan for swing moves and I will use those ideas for day trades. CASH IS POSITION TOO!!!!. Please remember that. If anyone has any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
Another week is gone and the rounding lows pattern is more and more possible. Friday was another untradeable day. The choppy action started right after the open and continued until the end of day with more weakness again on the DIA/SPY side. We can see that on the 60 min charts. The QQQQ stayed in a channel while the DIA and the SPY broke down under it. Volume was light and under average.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq60.jpg
This kind of market action is expected after we see declining volume on an upside move from lows. It also brings higher odds for rounding lows on the daily charts. For that possibility the indices need to break under all their daily moving average support and break near the daily lows. The SPY closed under its' 20sma 5 min, while the DIA closed above it and the QQQQ is obviously the strongest and closed above it’s 10sma support area. As traders we must recognize risk level and it is very high. The reason for that is the number of support and resistance areas in a very small area and anyone of them can be trigger a reversal. We can clearly see that on the daily charts
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq.jpg
On the weekly charts we can see that the DIA bounced from its' 20/100sma resistance area. The SPY bounced from its' 10sma and its' 200sma support area is very close, and the QQQQ bounced from its' 100sma and closed above its' 10sma. That is another example of the number of close support and resistance areas. All that increases odds for more of this kind of action with daily bounces between the previous highs and lows (range action)
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq.jpg
Monday will be a very important day for that possibility. If we will see another selling day then very possibly the indices will retest their lows. If we see a strong reversal then odds for new highs will increase. My bias is, unfortunately, more daily choppy action with more weakness. A weekly pivot is another possibility as well. That is all that the charts are suggesting as possibilities and scenarios. All this indecision creates this very high risk environment, especially for swing trades and overnight trades. It is important to see a move in the right direction to even consider holding a position overnight and in addition it should be done only with reasonable lots. Intraday action and trading plans based on smaller time frames will be lower risk and therefore will be my focus. I will again scan for swing moves and I will use those ideas for day trades. CASH IS POSITION TOO!!!!. Please remember that. If anyone has any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
xpertstocktrader
Established member
- Messages
- 874
- Likes
- 6
Market commentary for 04/03/2008
Good day!
As we expected, Wednesday brought a correction day. Very rarely will we see two trend days in row and when we do, volume will be much higher than average. I mentioned yesterday that volume was my biggest concern and Wednesday's correction proved that. After the open uncertainty and the pullback to the 5 min 20sma support area, the indices bounced to new highs and reached their previous resistance areas. The DIA and the SPY reached their equal move areas and their previous highs. We can see that on the 60 min chart. The QQQQ stalled at its' $46 whole number price resistance area. On the smaller time frames we can see that the selling pressure was stronger (second selling wave on the 5 min charts) and that brought concerns for long trades. The day closed with two selling waves on the 15 min charts which gives us room for possible selling pressure in the morning.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008qqqq60.jpg
Again, for a healthy daily trend reversal possibility, I would like to see more buying volume, what will be proof that interest on the long side is back. On the daily charts we can see that the indices show a 3rd buying wave (blue lines). It is very choppy action but still we can see three buying waves. Usually after three waves we will see a longer correction and that is another reason for concern on a long continuation. On a possible daily correction (that is what I will expect) it will be important to see the correction pace and the reaction to the daily 10 and 20sma support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008qqqq.jpg
I will expect to see a choppy correction on the daily chart. I know that it can be frustrating to see that we didn’t take advantage of the three buying waves, but when we see the whole chart and how choppy it is, then for me it is reasonable to stay with intraday moves and faster trades. There were plenty of false moves and breakouts. In other words I will say that we presently have a battle between the bulls and bears for control of the market. On the larger time frames (weekly/monthly) I’m not that optimistic and I think we will see more selling pressure and possibly even a move back to lows, but we will talk about that when the market gives us signals for that. For now we can say that the bulls are not yet strong enough for a recovery, only for a break (rest) from the trend down. Because of that my focus will continue to be with intraday action and scanning for the strongest and weakest charts and of course for own way charts.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
As we expected, Wednesday brought a correction day. Very rarely will we see two trend days in row and when we do, volume will be much higher than average. I mentioned yesterday that volume was my biggest concern and Wednesday's correction proved that. After the open uncertainty and the pullback to the 5 min 20sma support area, the indices bounced to new highs and reached their previous resistance areas. The DIA and the SPY reached their equal move areas and their previous highs. We can see that on the 60 min chart. The QQQQ stalled at its' $46 whole number price resistance area. On the smaller time frames we can see that the selling pressure was stronger (second selling wave on the 5 min charts) and that brought concerns for long trades. The day closed with two selling waves on the 15 min charts which gives us room for possible selling pressure in the morning.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008qqqq60.jpg
Again, for a healthy daily trend reversal possibility, I would like to see more buying volume, what will be proof that interest on the long side is back. On the daily charts we can see that the indices show a 3rd buying wave (blue lines). It is very choppy action but still we can see three buying waves. Usually after three waves we will see a longer correction and that is another reason for concern on a long continuation. On a possible daily correction (that is what I will expect) it will be important to see the correction pace and the reaction to the daily 10 and 20sma support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008qqqq.jpg
I will expect to see a choppy correction on the daily chart. I know that it can be frustrating to see that we didn’t take advantage of the three buying waves, but when we see the whole chart and how choppy it is, then for me it is reasonable to stay with intraday moves and faster trades. There were plenty of false moves and breakouts. In other words I will say that we presently have a battle between the bulls and bears for control of the market. On the larger time frames (weekly/monthly) I’m not that optimistic and I think we will see more selling pressure and possibly even a move back to lows, but we will talk about that when the market gives us signals for that. For now we can say that the bulls are not yet strong enough for a recovery, only for a break (rest) from the trend down. Because of that my focus will continue to be with intraday action and scanning for the strongest and weakest charts and of course for own way charts.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
xpertstocktrader
Established member
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- 874
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- 6
Market commentary for 04/04/2008
Good day!
We can say that today was a painful day for traders. Only scalp traders, over traders and patient traders had a busy day. We definitely don’t have good market conditions right now for swing traders. Thursday brought another small daily range bar with choppy intraday action. There was intraday strength but it was expected that Wednesday's high would hold. For the rest of the day we saw choppy action without a trend. Look at the 60 min charts. It was the second day in a row with range action and light volume. We can see that the 10and 20sma are trying to crossover and if the indices break under the 20sma that will be a signal for more of a correction from highs. That is an important support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008qqqq60.jpg
After Tuesday's strong move up on lighter volume, the last two days correction is going on declining volume, so we can imagine how choppy that can be. I don’t have a strong bias but for now I think that Wednesday's high will hold for the next few days and that we could see more of a daily correction from highs. We will see, but I know that any breakout try must be confirmed with volume. Generally the indices are stuck and the bounce from the daily low is on light volume and a weaker pace.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008qqqq.jpg
For now, the market action suggests that we will see more weekly weakness and new selling waves, but it is still too early to say for sure. I’m not optimistic with a true market recovery until I see huge buying interest. My focus will continue to be with the intraday action and patience. Also we must keep in mind that tomorrow is Friday and usually we will see some action in the morning and then volume will decline and choppy action will take control. I will look over the gainers list for individual names, possibly traps or own way charts.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
We can say that today was a painful day for traders. Only scalp traders, over traders and patient traders had a busy day. We definitely don’t have good market conditions right now for swing traders. Thursday brought another small daily range bar with choppy intraday action. There was intraday strength but it was expected that Wednesday's high would hold. For the rest of the day we saw choppy action without a trend. Look at the 60 min charts. It was the second day in a row with range action and light volume. We can see that the 10and 20sma are trying to crossover and if the indices break under the 20sma that will be a signal for more of a correction from highs. That is an important support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008qqqq60.jpg
After Tuesday's strong move up on lighter volume, the last two days correction is going on declining volume, so we can imagine how choppy that can be. I don’t have a strong bias but for now I think that Wednesday's high will hold for the next few days and that we could see more of a daily correction from highs. We will see, but I know that any breakout try must be confirmed with volume. Generally the indices are stuck and the bounce from the daily low is on light volume and a weaker pace.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008qqqq.jpg
For now, the market action suggests that we will see more weekly weakness and new selling waves, but it is still too early to say for sure. I’m not optimistic with a true market recovery until I see huge buying interest. My focus will continue to be with the intraday action and patience. Also we must keep in mind that tomorrow is Friday and usually we will see some action in the morning and then volume will decline and choppy action will take control. I will look over the gainers list for individual names, possibly traps or own way charts.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
xpertstocktrader
Established member
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- 874
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- 6
Market commentary for 04/07/2008
Good day!
Take a look at the table above and you can see that there are almost no changes and that speaks volumes about Friday's action. Over the last few days my commentaries continued to stress that we have had difficult trading days and Friday was no exception. Yes the indices made new highs but there was not enough volume for a true breakout. On the 60 min charts we can see that the indices broke on their 3rd try and usually that will be the charm, but we also know that if the 3rd try doesn't work we could see a strong reversal. On the charts we can see that the breakup didn’t work. Pace was ok, but volume was lacking which means that buyers were not interested in the upward direction. Also we can see that the pullback was strong, and will we see if Monday will bring more selling continuation.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqq60.jpg
From the daily charts we can see why the indices didn’t show significant changes. All the indices formed doji bars and that means indecision. Usually it means that whichever side is broken first will be the direction that we can expect. Overhead the SPY and the QQQQ have some room before their 100sma and their previous highs while the DIA already reached its' resistance area. I would like to note again that volume decreased on the move from lows. But let’s take a look at the weekly charts which might shed some more light.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqq.jpg
On first view we can see that all the indices are at their resistance areas of previous highs plus 20sma resistance areas. If we remember usually the first try to break a resistance area will fail and if we add the daily doji and the 60 min 3rd try failure breakup, all of that suggests that the long side will be higher risk. But that does not means that we can blindly go with short setups or even that the indices will bounce strongly from their resistance areas. It just means that that we must be cautious with new long trades because of the resistance areas.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqqweekly.jpg
I can say that that my bias is short because of volume, but I can’t say that I see a clear technical signal for that. I think that the market is not ready for a true recovery and I think that the bear trend isn’t finished yet. Right now it is important to remember that we are entering the earning season and as usual that will increase risk for o/n trades, in an already high risk market. I know that I sound like a broken record, but my focus will stay the same: intraday moves and focus on the strongest and weakest names. I will avoid o/n trades unless we will find “own way” charts.
If anyone has any questions or comments please feel free to contact me.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
Take a look at the table above and you can see that there are almost no changes and that speaks volumes about Friday's action. Over the last few days my commentaries continued to stress that we have had difficult trading days and Friday was no exception. Yes the indices made new highs but there was not enough volume for a true breakout. On the 60 min charts we can see that the indices broke on their 3rd try and usually that will be the charm, but we also know that if the 3rd try doesn't work we could see a strong reversal. On the charts we can see that the breakup didn’t work. Pace was ok, but volume was lacking which means that buyers were not interested in the upward direction. Also we can see that the pullback was strong, and will we see if Monday will bring more selling continuation.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqq60.jpg
From the daily charts we can see why the indices didn’t show significant changes. All the indices formed doji bars and that means indecision. Usually it means that whichever side is broken first will be the direction that we can expect. Overhead the SPY and the QQQQ have some room before their 100sma and their previous highs while the DIA already reached its' resistance area. I would like to note again that volume decreased on the move from lows. But let’s take a look at the weekly charts which might shed some more light.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqq.jpg
On first view we can see that all the indices are at their resistance areas of previous highs plus 20sma resistance areas. If we remember usually the first try to break a resistance area will fail and if we add the daily doji and the 60 min 3rd try failure breakup, all of that suggests that the long side will be higher risk. But that does not means that we can blindly go with short setups or even that the indices will bounce strongly from their resistance areas. It just means that that we must be cautious with new long trades because of the resistance areas.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqqweekly.jpg
I can say that that my bias is short because of volume, but I can’t say that I see a clear technical signal for that. I think that the market is not ready for a true recovery and I think that the bear trend isn’t finished yet. Right now it is important to remember that we are entering the earning season and as usual that will increase risk for o/n trades, in an already high risk market. I know that I sound like a broken record, but my focus will stay the same: intraday moves and focus on the strongest and weakest names. I will avoid o/n trades unless we will find “own way” charts.
If anyone has any questions or comments please feel free to contact me.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Hrmmm...thoughts? I don't like that volume at resistance at all.
I'd much rather have seen low volume on a failure to breakout, seems like possible distribution to me.
I might say that was decent volume, so all effort with no result.
$TRIN closed well above the 2.0 level.
Based on that alone...IF we don't have an up day Monday the mid term could be nasty n' bloody.
Blog Archive MC’s Friday night DOW review
This chart shows some volume stepping in at a trendline based on the weekly as well as a complete gap fill from back on 3/31. We now have the open gap above formed from todays opening gap down.
Monday should be interesting, then again what day in the market isn't interesting?
Thanks for the input guys...I'm still a noob and it's all JMHO. If I'm hijacking this thread please let me know and I'll make a new thread. Don't want to step on toes, I just like all your insight and thoughts.
Last edited:
xpertstocktrader
Established member
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- 874
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- 6
Market commentary for 04/14/2008
Good day!
Obviously the market didn’t like GE's earning's report and the indices opened with a strong gap down. It was not a textbook example, but it was a kind of daily bull trap that resulted in a trend day down and a weak close. On the intraday charts we can see that the indices didn’t have enough strength after the open for any bounce and that every attempt for a bounce finished with new lows resulting in a trend day. The SPY and the DIA found support at their 200sma 60 min while the QQQQ closed at its’ 20sma daily support area. All have room for more selling over the next few days.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0414008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0414008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0414008qqqq60.jpg
The daily volume was higher, but nothing climactic. The QQQQ volume was average, while the DIA and the SPY were slightly above average (blue line). On the charts we can see how the previous resistance areas are becoming a support area now which is always important to follow for expectations. Unfortunately, the idea for a possible weekly continuation pattern fell apart on Friday and all the indices are back to a short bias. The weekly charts will show us more clearly.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008qqqq.jpg
After two selling waves, the indices started with a weekly range action which was expected, because previously the selling pace was very strong and I didn’t expect that the market would recover very easily, especially not after only two selling waves. Because of that I still think that we can expect more weakness in the future (hope I will be wrong). Usually the first try to break a strong resistance area will fail, and that was the case with the 20sma weekly. We can see on the chart how that finished and Friday's session helped with that. If you remember my last Monday's commentary I was very suspicious with the long side and most of the week that feeling continued. But the Indices held very well and the weekly continuation pattern possibility was open until Friday. Volume was not huge and we can see a number of support areas before the previous lows so it is hard to expect that Friday's selling pressure is a trigger for a new weekly selling wave.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008qqqqweekly.jpg
But in case the selling will continue, than Friday's action is the start of a possible 3rd try on the weekly charts and it is good to keep that in mind. Friday gave us a trap and a strong move down, however volume was not excessive. (That concerns me for now). Usually traps have a tendency to go for several days in the same direction and if that will be the case the indices will trade back to weekly lows and that will be the 3rd try. We know that the 3rd try can be the charm and that could be the start of a 3rd weekly selling wave, which is not unusual. That is one possible scenario. Since Friday's selling volume was not very strong, and since the indices have plenty of support areas, the indices could stay in a weekly range for some time which also won’t be unusual. Obviously it is hard to be sure of a direction, but it is always good to have possibilities in mind. Right now it will be important to see Monday's action. We know that very often after a strong move, the next day we typically see consolidation-correction day. If that will be the case, it will be very important to see Monday's action. Should we have a strong bounce, then odds for selling continuation will decrease, however if we have a consolidation at lows, selling continuation will increase. There are many “ifs” and right now we can’t ignore them, but we can read risk. Intraday charts are extended and right now new low risk short trades will be higher risk until we will see consolidation. Because of that I don’t expect much from Monday's action and I will be again focus on intraday setups. There are too many support areas for low risk swing trades and we must use proper risk on them. I still have a short bias for the future and unfortunately I don’t think that the market crisis is finished. I will go day by day and we will see what we will get. Best
will be to see a weekly consolidation which will give us low risk possibilities for short setups and could lead into a weekly 3rd try break down.
If anyone has any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
Obviously the market didn’t like GE's earning's report and the indices opened with a strong gap down. It was not a textbook example, but it was a kind of daily bull trap that resulted in a trend day down and a weak close. On the intraday charts we can see that the indices didn’t have enough strength after the open for any bounce and that every attempt for a bounce finished with new lows resulting in a trend day. The SPY and the DIA found support at their 200sma 60 min while the QQQQ closed at its’ 20sma daily support area. All have room for more selling over the next few days.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0414008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0414008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0414008qqqq60.jpg
The daily volume was higher, but nothing climactic. The QQQQ volume was average, while the DIA and the SPY were slightly above average (blue line). On the charts we can see how the previous resistance areas are becoming a support area now which is always important to follow for expectations. Unfortunately, the idea for a possible weekly continuation pattern fell apart on Friday and all the indices are back to a short bias. The weekly charts will show us more clearly.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008qqqq.jpg
After two selling waves, the indices started with a weekly range action which was expected, because previously the selling pace was very strong and I didn’t expect that the market would recover very easily, especially not after only two selling waves. Because of that I still think that we can expect more weakness in the future (hope I will be wrong). Usually the first try to break a strong resistance area will fail, and that was the case with the 20sma weekly. We can see on the chart how that finished and Friday's session helped with that. If you remember my last Monday's commentary I was very suspicious with the long side and most of the week that feeling continued. But the Indices held very well and the weekly continuation pattern possibility was open until Friday. Volume was not huge and we can see a number of support areas before the previous lows so it is hard to expect that Friday's selling pressure is a trigger for a new weekly selling wave.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04142008qqqqweekly.jpg
But in case the selling will continue, than Friday's action is the start of a possible 3rd try on the weekly charts and it is good to keep that in mind. Friday gave us a trap and a strong move down, however volume was not excessive. (That concerns me for now). Usually traps have a tendency to go for several days in the same direction and if that will be the case the indices will trade back to weekly lows and that will be the 3rd try. We know that the 3rd try can be the charm and that could be the start of a 3rd weekly selling wave, which is not unusual. That is one possible scenario. Since Friday's selling volume was not very strong, and since the indices have plenty of support areas, the indices could stay in a weekly range for some time which also won’t be unusual. Obviously it is hard to be sure of a direction, but it is always good to have possibilities in mind. Right now it will be important to see Monday's action. We know that very often after a strong move, the next day we typically see consolidation-correction day. If that will be the case, it will be very important to see Monday's action. Should we have a strong bounce, then odds for selling continuation will decrease, however if we have a consolidation at lows, selling continuation will increase. There are many “ifs” and right now we can’t ignore them, but we can read risk. Intraday charts are extended and right now new low risk short trades will be higher risk until we will see consolidation. Because of that I don’t expect much from Monday's action and I will be again focus on intraday setups. There are too many support areas for low risk swing trades and we must use proper risk on them. I still have a short bias for the future and unfortunately I don’t think that the market crisis is finished. I will go day by day and we will see what we will get. Best
will be to see a weekly consolidation which will give us low risk possibilities for short setups and could lead into a weekly 3rd try break down.
If anyone has any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Silversea
Member
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If the SPX bounces up and retrace more than 50% of this drop it will start to form an ascending channel . But with Retail Sales this week and Oil making new Highs, I will have to agree with Ivica that the odds of another drop are increasing , in other words there will probably be a less than 50% bounce after Friday's drop.
The indexes did add a large amount of buying volume and that should cause the indexes to move higher at least modestly in the near term perhaps in the morning on Monday. But expect continual weakness for the rest of the day.
The indexes did add a large amount of buying volume and that should cause the indexes to move higher at least modestly in the near term perhaps in the morning on Monday. But expect continual weakness for the rest of the day.
xpertstocktrader
Established member
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Market commentary for 04/17/2008
Good day!
The market action continued with the same patterns, a trend day and after that several choppy worthless trading days. Wednesday brought a trend day. It was a day when stocks traded like they did in the old days. No matter which direction you traded, both shorts and longs both did great. It has been a while since we have had a "normal" trading day. Although it was nice, that does not mean I’m in love with the market action enough to decrease risk. The reason for that is visible on the 60 min charts. The resistance areas are close, the move is extended and we are in the earnings season and those are the main reasons why I didn’t want to take any overnight risk. My bias is on the long side and the reason for that is the difference between the selling and buying pace. After last Friday's bull trap action I was expecting much stronger selling pressure, but obviously the market is strong enough to absorb bad news…for now anyway.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0417008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0417008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0417008qqqq60.jpg
On the daily charts we can see that the indices have room for another move up, which can result with a morning gap, but with earnings we could also see a gap down. Volume is not climactic and still in an average area, which is not good for the long side, but it was enough for a nice day trading day. The Indices still have a number of resistance and support areas and because of that the swing risk remains high. The DIA broke above its' 20sma weekly, while the SPY and the QQQQ still have room to reach those areas.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04172008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04172008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04172008qqqq.jpg
I’m a swing trader, and I feel best there, but this is not the market for me and because of that I will remain with the same mode. Bias is bullish, but I will go day by day and we will see where that will bring us. Remember that after a trend day usually we will see a consolidation day. It was same on Monday and that is what I will expect for Thursday. Two trend days in row mean a strong reaction and we will very rarely see that. But let’s see how the market opens and be prepared for fast trading once again. I’m sure that the swing market will return, but for now we must be patient. Before that happens, let’s take what we can get.
If anyone has any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
The market action continued with the same patterns, a trend day and after that several choppy worthless trading days. Wednesday brought a trend day. It was a day when stocks traded like they did in the old days. No matter which direction you traded, both shorts and longs both did great. It has been a while since we have had a "normal" trading day. Although it was nice, that does not mean I’m in love with the market action enough to decrease risk. The reason for that is visible on the 60 min charts. The resistance areas are close, the move is extended and we are in the earnings season and those are the main reasons why I didn’t want to take any overnight risk. My bias is on the long side and the reason for that is the difference between the selling and buying pace. After last Friday's bull trap action I was expecting much stronger selling pressure, but obviously the market is strong enough to absorb bad news…for now anyway.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0417008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0417008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/0417008qqqq60.jpg
On the daily charts we can see that the indices have room for another move up, which can result with a morning gap, but with earnings we could also see a gap down. Volume is not climactic and still in an average area, which is not good for the long side, but it was enough for a nice day trading day. The Indices still have a number of resistance and support areas and because of that the swing risk remains high. The DIA broke above its' 20sma weekly, while the SPY and the QQQQ still have room to reach those areas.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04172008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04172008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04172008qqqq.jpg
I’m a swing trader, and I feel best there, but this is not the market for me and because of that I will remain with the same mode. Bias is bullish, but I will go day by day and we will see where that will bring us. Remember that after a trend day usually we will see a consolidation day. It was same on Monday and that is what I will expect for Thursday. Two trend days in row mean a strong reaction and we will very rarely see that. But let’s see how the market opens and be prepared for fast trading once again. I’m sure that the swing market will return, but for now we must be patient. Before that happens, let’s take what we can get.
If anyone has any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
xpertstocktrader
Established member
- Messages
- 874
- Likes
- 6
Market commentary for 04/21/2008
Good day!
Was GOOG the only reason for Friday's strong gap up, or was it short covering? There is not much to say about Friday's action. After the strong gap up, and open weakness, the indices started with a strong rally to new highs. The problem was volume and I will show you that on the larger timeframe charts. That is the reason why I’m cautious about the market action. After the noon consolidation, the indices started with a correction around the 14:00 pm EST reversal period. The rest of the day we saw a correction from highs, but without strong pace which increased trading risk and brought slow choppy market action. The day closed in the middle of the range.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008qqqq60.jpg
On the daily charts we can see that the day's intraday action resulted with a doji pattern, which means indecision. All is nice, the market is strong, the resistance areas are becoming support areas, but I’m worried about volume. On a strong gap up like Friday, I expect stronger volume and that is what I haven't liked over the last several days. The daily buying pace is strong but without volume support. We can see that the indices have room for more upside, but for me risk will remain higher because I don’t trust it to be a swing trader's environment right now. In addition, earnings season is another reason for added caution. We must keep in mind and respect, however, that the market has been absorbing bad news and looks very strong.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008qqqq.jpg
On the weekly charts we can see that the move up from lows is happening without volume support and on the QQQQ's chart we can see that it decreased. The SPY and the DIA are under their strong weekly resistance areas, while the QQQQ still has more room for a move up. It will be important to see over the next few days how the market holds Friday's gap. Will there be enough strength for a consolidation at highs or will we see a weekly range which will result with a pull back. Right now I don’t see a market reversal pattern and I still think that the weekly selling pressure is not over, but until that possibility we can only follow the market and trade with smaller risk.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008qqqqweekly.jpg
Also earning season will continue and that will keep me in the same mode. I don’t like that, but for now intraday trading is best for low risk trading. Every o/n trade will be higher risk because of earning news possibilities. Lately we can see that short trades haven’t work well, and I will be very picky with them. Also for the long side, we have strong resistance overhead and the market is already on the move (daily charts). Because of that I will pay attention to faster intraday moves (gaps, traps, and own way charts)
If anyone has any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
Was GOOG the only reason for Friday's strong gap up, or was it short covering? There is not much to say about Friday's action. After the strong gap up, and open weakness, the indices started with a strong rally to new highs. The problem was volume and I will show you that on the larger timeframe charts. That is the reason why I’m cautious about the market action. After the noon consolidation, the indices started with a correction around the 14:00 pm EST reversal period. The rest of the day we saw a correction from highs, but without strong pace which increased trading risk and brought slow choppy market action. The day closed in the middle of the range.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008qqqq60.jpg
On the daily charts we can see that the day's intraday action resulted with a doji pattern, which means indecision. All is nice, the market is strong, the resistance areas are becoming support areas, but I’m worried about volume. On a strong gap up like Friday, I expect stronger volume and that is what I haven't liked over the last several days. The daily buying pace is strong but without volume support. We can see that the indices have room for more upside, but for me risk will remain higher because I don’t trust it to be a swing trader's environment right now. In addition, earnings season is another reason for added caution. We must keep in mind and respect, however, that the market has been absorbing bad news and looks very strong.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008qqqq.jpg
On the weekly charts we can see that the move up from lows is happening without volume support and on the QQQQ's chart we can see that it decreased. The SPY and the DIA are under their strong weekly resistance areas, while the QQQQ still has more room for a move up. It will be important to see over the next few days how the market holds Friday's gap. Will there be enough strength for a consolidation at highs or will we see a weekly range which will result with a pull back. Right now I don’t see a market reversal pattern and I still think that the weekly selling pressure is not over, but until that possibility we can only follow the market and trade with smaller risk.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04212008qqqqweekly.jpg
Also earning season will continue and that will keep me in the same mode. I don’t like that, but for now intraday trading is best for low risk trading. Every o/n trade will be higher risk because of earning news possibilities. Lately we can see that short trades haven’t work well, and I will be very picky with them. Also for the long side, we have strong resistance overhead and the market is already on the move (daily charts). Because of that I will pay attention to faster intraday moves (gaps, traps, and own way charts)
If anyone has any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica