Tullibody's Blog

[Tullibody]

Bottled it first, had a sip later

Could not get my mind and mouse hand to work in unison this morning despite looking forward to dealing and feeling confident and refreshed.
To wit: Initially the cable retreating from what looked like overnight resistance around 1.6760 /65 had fairly obvious support likely at 20-ish offered. It did (18 bottom) but I did nothing. Stalled around 35 offered – the resistance on the yin candle just completed – and a buy around 30 seemed the best should entre. It fell to 28 offered and again did nothing.
Maybe it all happened a bit to quickly – the first signal got hit about two minutes after I sat down and printed out my chart. Perhaps needed more time after the weekend. Who knows but I was surprised and disappointed
Meanwhile the dlr-swiss was falling from a rally stopped by overnight highs. Anything below 25 bid –where it had previously bounced was a sell. Did nothing until 1.3091 and then panicked out of it on a bounce from 81 to 89. Took two and dlr-swiss promptly fell in the 70s (and down to test 00 later) while cable pushed for a bridgehead in the mid 50s. Sigh, try again later.
Obviously the cable had a super run this morning from the very point I highlighted as support to 1.6870.
Bit before 1400, it is dodging about with a yin candle resistance having come off the top with support likely – if needed – about 20. On a dip go long at 1.6834 and watch somewhat crestfallen – what have I been trying to discipline myself about these last few weeks? -- as the 20 support comes into play. Bounces to early 30s offered and back down. This time it is more positive (didn’t buy again at the bottom; confidence a bit frail today) and into the money. The target is a profit of 20 (ie 54 bid). In due course it arrives, snout snaps shut and off to sit in the sun, 22 points to the good.
Not brilliant but after bottling (or something) earlier, some satisfaction beyond the numbers.
Om shanti.

 

[Tullibody]

Freudians and others please note

The morning session was a complete mess and I was lucky to get out flat. Four weeks ago however in the same market I would have been about 40-50 points down.
Long on cable at 0743 at 1.6839 thinking it was going to bounce from its overnight pullback and test the high around 85-90. It didn’t because the support was quite obviously about 30 below but it did get to about 56-7 bid which would have been a handy profit -- even if I had taken it following five consecutive lower prints (and conformed to a nascent new rule) which would have given me 11. It was quickly affirmed that the support after a hefty yin candle was in the teens or possibly 10 bid. Nevertheless I took another long at 1.6828 at 0814 and watched as the support did indeed kick in around 10 bid (didn’t dare risk another long although it would have made more sense than the first two). It managed to test around 52-53 bid – a sell there or nearby of one would have meant 15-25 profit depending – and I eventually sold both at 39 to get flat one and 11 the other. So up 11 after nearly 90 minutes of indecision.
I thought about yesterday’s nervy performance which came just after my capital had cleared a “big figure” just like markets are skittish either side of 00s, so was I; and there was a strange sense of needing to experience a fall after a successful week and a new confidence coming in my analysis – Freudians may recognise this as will, from a different perspective, masochists. It showed itself with an ill-considered long at 1.6845 based on the market bouncing. Again it didn’t but headed straight back to the 10-14 area. This time I took a deep-breath second long position at 18 and gratefully watched the bounce get up to around the early 20s bid. I sold one at 28 for 10 and the other at 30 for minus 10 and flat – entirely the wrong way to do that I now realise.
Basically a great number of points were there to be taken and absolutely none were.
When the U.S. figures came out at 1330, I went short the cable at 05 when the boys started to react but jumped off pretty quickly after it went straight to 91 then back up to 98 and 00 suggesting the market found the numbers less the unequivocal. Of course over the next 30 minutes, it fell to support around 1.765-70 (when I wasn’t looking).
I really wanted to take part again but I knew I couldn’t focus for some reason. So five up on the day it is.
Om shanti, tout le monde.

 

[Tullibody]

ding dong!

At the weekend I was reading that countless traders on the Chicago Merc and the CBOT had spent weeks diligently building up their trading accounts only to blow the lot in one manic session. Apparently something deep inside their psyche or somewhere makes them do this. What a bunch of dopes, I thought.
This morning I did exactly the same thing with not a shread of discipline or any regard for the approach I had been trying to develop over the past several weeks....evidently I need help. Fortunately I still have the book marked at that very page.
Hope springs eternal so 'til the morrow.
Om shanti

 

[Tullibody]

Much contrition and a flat book

The aftermath of yesterday’s horrors were quite far reaching – as they should have been – when I sat down and thought what I had done. I'll spare gentle readers the soul searching.
At least this morning while trying to come back from a heavy loss on the dollar-swiss I set an exit number and went, no waiting for the next tick and sweating for the first number to come back. It meant the trade was more or less flat.
Interestingly had I looked at the cable more closely, I would have seen it had just completed a hammer coming off a well established low and was worth a chance; it took off for a run of about 55. Observation and awareness not been high past coupla days; also a shade gun shy on the cable just now.
Probably nothing tomorrow as friends are here to see how us hillbillies live; we wander about in the hills basically and through money into bottomless pits....
Om shanti

 

[Tullibody]

More grief, more soul searching

After last week's fiasco and a little break, more stupidities kicked off this week cand my bland disregard for stop losses finally caused me grief. Yes I think, "Well, that's enough of a loss there" and I know I ought to jump when that level is hit but recently I have been seduced into being less stringent following several spikes which have come back in my favour. Not so this past couple of days and I have paid heavily. Now each trade is accompanied by a stop order at whatever level I feel would prove I'm wrong. This also has the effect of making sure I don't go into a trade where the depth of stop is going to be beyond my comfort zone -- about 1.5 pct of capital. So that's good and means I just have to concentrate on not turning a winner into a loser, a prime attribute sad to say.
Mixed results there; caught a cable short this PM before it vanished into the red but missed one a bit earlier to clocked a modest loss (stopped it before the stop level which was passed and a bit more later).
The other recent innovation is to go short at the bottom of the market, clownishly thinking support will collapse. So far it has not in three goes. Now I am only trading when tested support/resistance holds again and then only if the next level is at least twice as far away as my stop. Basic, basic stuff, punters, but its is amazing how a few winning days no matter how ramshackle can turn the mind away from any kind of discipline until a propper horsing sorts things out again, hopefully just before the dosh burns up.
Sadder and more aware.
Om shanti.

 

[Tullibody]

Through pollen drenched tears....

After many hours staring miserably from my hillside fastness, had a punt this morning and manage two points on the cable in an effort featuring a reversal which barely reversed, a stop which didn't fire and a successful bail out before a modest profit was swallowed and maybe 30 mins later, the market had a bit of squeeze higher hitting where I thought we might get to. No matter.
Another baby-level basic thought having watched the cable stuttering down towards my estimate of support (about 1.6635-40) from about 65. Later amid hay fever despair the realisation that the thing dismissed as too dangerous this morning, was the obvious play. To wit: Find a resistance that held (top of a yin candle at about 8AM and sell when that evidently holding with a stop (say) 15 above. Thus the line of least resistance on a plot where yin candles outweighed yang 2:1. Going with the flow/trend seems so obvious now I would be embarrassed were I not so miserable. Another piece of sense after all this nonsense has been ripped out of my pocket this past week or so. And, I survived near the capital floor for another day.
Om shanti.

 

[Tullibody]

Waited and wasted

Looked like there was plenty of potential around early today and so it proved with the dollar still firming. Marked off several long/short levels on the main currency one-hour charts and decided to do dlr-swiss long at 1.3430 when it got just north of some resistance. Hesitated and didn't get in for eight after that Then hesitated again when it came back from 57 a seller and decided to bail rather than risk a loss as the market started to wither. Two rules broken right of the stick! Just as well I jumped tho' as it went way south before bouncing and I would have been stopped out. Not confident/fast enough to make a real profit today. But things are getting better so not a complete waste.
Onm shanti.

 

[Tullibody]

Oh unhappy day

Sickener right from the off. Had problems getting on line this AM and when I did I misread the pound-dlr for a sterling long at 1.6539 as it seemed to be rising from support to get through a not very sturdy resistance. Totally wrong of course. Worse already. Put a stop on 15 or so below and went off then to find the stop hadn't fired and the market was 20 something down. Lost 28 and much faith in the d4f stop system as twas second time this had happened.
(a bit later in the same down move) shorted at 92and initially had about seven points to the good before market jumped up and rather than face a loss I decided to get out even and come back if looking good. Got a requote which I refused only for a spike to come up and I got out losing four.
(hours later) pound-dlr had eventually falled to the obvious support about 1.6460 or something and was wobbling around 00 looking like a short. Rather like this morning I went in more or less at the turn and having shown no inclination to make a profit beyond a pip or two and with no faith atall in a. my ability to pick 'em and b. d4f's ability to save my a£rse, got out losing 14. No idea what happened after that as I was deeply p1ssed off.
After a series of crappy days I am very close to the level at which I initially said I would quit. Trying very hard to be positive but God is my confidence shot!!
Om shanti.

 

[waytogo]

Why not take a few days off from trading? Sometimes when your on a losing streak like that, nothing is ever going to go right whatever you do! (I know, Ive been there). Take some time to re-visit charts if you use them, and re-evaluate your entries and exits, reduce your bet size, check your stop positions - have you been doing everything that your system tells you to and its just going through a bad phase, or are you jumping on board when you should be watching and waiting? I sympathise totally with you, as I've made all of those mistakes and still do - had all sorts of technical problems last week with trading platform, ISP etc and had a very bad week trading - entered a few trades in a rush and regretted it - then didn't have the confidence to go the other way where I would have made a profit - but I know it will get better as long as I am disciplined, and take things slowly. By the way, dont take any crap from d4f - make a fuss if they've done something wrong, and send emails to the compliance dept if you don't get anywhere on the phone

 

[Tullibody]

dipping the bread in ...

Hiya punters! Second try at posting this. Why does the machine think somebody else would contribute to my journal of woe? So briefly, lest it happens again. Spent last coupla weeks of thinking/sulking about what has gone wrong with methodology and inside the kopf as well, looking at patterns and trying to come up with something that might at least be less risky than hitherto. So, today clocked the pound-dollar as being in a local downtrend with resistance at various places 1.6365 through to 80 and support probably at 20-24 bid. When it started to run out of momentum at 65 a seller, decided that the bread could be dipped given I would pretty soon know if this was wrong and there was a good chance of a fall to the 20s. Short at 58 and a quick fall to 53 offered. Then things went a bit weird and the system seemed to freeze. Decided to take the five rather than get messed about. When order restored and the market was up two, noted on the 30 min candlestick chart a big yang candle giving support at 48-53. Despite that, morale greatly boosted. Probably try some more tentative moves next week before hols. A public thank you to waytogo for sympathetic and insightful comment after my last self-flagellating entry. It was very helpful.
Om shanti.

 

[Tullibody]

Another tiny step

Went long pound-dollar this morning after some problems getting into the system when the market had come off a support at 1.6229 approx. By the time I was aboard a bit after 10, it had rallied 20 points, Ideally I would have liked to have been on 15 points earlier but still. The upside looked reasonable (70-plus)and 36 bid would do as a confirmatiopn that I had got it wrong. After a couple of points higher cable slipped to test 38 bid three times at least. Eventually it began to squeeze a bit higher through routine offers at 50 and 55/57 where resistance came from a recent top. By now I knew that barring a. slippage and/or b. a black out of my new-found discipline, I was on a profit. Resistance clearly increased and momentum slowed once the offer was beyond 60. During my time in the market it offered 66 once and 59/64 twice and I took the second to book 10 points. That lasted 57 minutes and was sufficient test of the fortitude and resolve for one day given that this is not today's big issue.
Om shanti

 

[Tullibody]

off to the sun

Just one punt since last update; short cable on Tuesday just before the d4f system went funny. By the time I had tried to get in a couple of times and eventually phoned dealers it had squeezed up 16 points. Out of there losing just one more point than budget. It was a slightly dodgy effort as a bit more reflection indicated likely reward was definitely not more than twice likely risk. So gains on the week wiped. Since then preparations for hols have taken precedent and they are demanding. Out here on the slopes beyond the reach of broadband, sun tan lotion and sun hats do not much occupy the hillbilly mind. Hence much effort unless one resorts to protection by Bacofoil and bin lid. While away, much internal reflection to be done.
A bientot.

 

[Tullibody]

time to think Vorsprung durch Tech....

Thoughts of restarting trading this week were overturned by that Blaster thing which banjaxed comms here for 2/3 days. Since then, decided to have a pause in journal entries (cries of approval were heard!), the reason being that making mistakes aka losing money most days and then making it public does not help the karma or for that matter the equilibrium. So decided to spend some more time developing the technique before posting more offerings. The original idea was to add 50 pct to the starting capital, add more capital and go from there. Once that is achieved and I feel I have something POsitive to share with fellow users, I'll be back.
Meanwhile, keep the faith.

 

[Tullibody]

Clawing it back

Hiya! In the coupla months since I last posted, I admit I haven’t regained all losses and added copiously to the pot. I haven’t traded very often but even so, lost at one stage another 150 points despite certain adages being absorbed that should have made that impossible (ha!). To wit: What has happened once/twice will happen again -- support and resistance are likely to prevail. At least 90 percent of these losses came from failed breakouts apparently proving the point/my stupidity.
Since then I have clawed a lot back through simple responses to the pound-dollar’s observed behaviour. Which is….
Coming out of its overnight market most days it seems to turn at the bottom/top of a black/white 30 min or 1 hour candle (deal4free charts) and head off to a longer term support/resistance about 30-60 points away whence it often confirms its direction for the day. All I had to do was follow that. It took weeks of flaffing about before that began to happen, however.
The key to doing so was to decide how much to risk for what. For some reason I am comfortable risking 15/20 points and for that I want 30/40 points minimum profit targeting the first significant expected barrier in my direction.
So it makes sense to wait to enter at a point where the market appeared to confirm that it had reversed and a 15/20 stop loss would therefore be beyond the support/resistance. Does that make sense? In other words you didn’t just lose money, you lost the minimum amount of money which would prove the market had spoofed you. Most recent losses happened when I ignored that or leapt on to a 5-10 point breakout thinking the res/sup had failed only to find I was on at the top or bottom.
Today was a typical (good) example: 8AM. Cable tests 1.6755 bid overnight high and candle turns black for sell at 1.6750 or 45 making risk 15 or 20 respectively with a target of the twice-tested 1.6710/15 support. Didn’t quite make that but 20-25 profit was there with no real threat of loss. That’s what I’ve been trying recently.
Without being able to prove this, I think the reversal is more likely than a continuation. So how to play that? Dunno; that’s why I keep losing on it. Thoughts are wait until 15/20 stop loss would be under the support/resistance; wait for a pull back go with prevailing trend, trust RSI but not sure. From bitter experience, the risk seems greater. More next week, perhaps.
Thanks to those who expressed interest in the journal and offered encouragement.
Om shanti

 

[Tullibody]

A warning to young and old, (hu)man and beast

I only post today for your benefit, friends and punters. Since last Friday I have had a series of modest wins including this morning - short a downturn on the cable which I closed pocketing about 20 or so at 0928 GMT. Had just noted that in my book when of course the MPC came out (had forgotten about it) and the market was 50-60 points north in seconds. No idea what to do, so did nowt. Surprised to see GBP still heading upwards later and after contentedly watching from the side suddenly let the left click impulse take over and went long in the 1.6890s. I KNEW this was stupid and that it took no account of anything sensible. I just did it. Twas an expensive click of course compounded by assuming the subsequent pull back was permanent so another handful turned to dust as did the reverse when I closed the short. Three losses all because I junked all the discipline and consideration I have built up over the past several weeks. Beware the madness always lurks ....think the reforming smoker or drinker. Vigilance is vital friends or it's back to despair.

 

[Tullibody]

and I won't be the last.....

Hiya. At my last entry I said I wound post again when I achieved 50 pct profit etc. Well I didn't. Over the past 10 months there were many enforced and voluntary gaps in trading, several very good days but sadly more howlers. A seemingly viable trading philosophy had evolved however when I had to go off to see to the death of step father at end June. On return (July 12) I set myself some realistic targets for the week and the rest of the month and managed (all per system) a couple of losers, ditto winners, a winner, a missed chance due oversleeping, two losers and on the Friday three losers. Friday July 16 was the day when pound-dollar moved by about 240 points one way yet I lost 56. I decided that's it. No mas. I felt an acute sense of failure cushioned by knowing I am not the first and I definitely won't be the last. I have several mint condition trading books for sale and also the full (minus bulls*** rambling sections) of Pop (Phanton of the Pits) trading methodology which is very sensible but beyond me somehow. The books are: Nison Beyond Candlesticks, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, All About Futures (McCafferty and Wasendrof), Technical Analysis Plain and Simple (Kahn), The Way of the Warrior trader (McColl), The Disciplined trader (Douglas), The Mind of the Market (Chu), Escape to the Futures (Leo Melamed -- the man who inveted(?) financial futures). Anybody intersted pls private msg me. Meanwhile good luck to all; I've ejoyed t2w and it's been lots of fun despite....Om shanti.