Dentalfloss
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Dax ..poss bullf lag brewing on 1 min
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Morning Sir C.
Dentalfloss
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gbp buying...a tad
Dentalfloss
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from : Marc Ostwald
- Further rebound in China Services PMI to be digested ahead of Eurozone
readings, all eyes on US labour data and Fed speakers, also awaiting news
on China-US Trade talks
- Eurozone Services PMIs: preliminary readings seen confirmed, Spain also
& Italy seen edging higher, downside risks due to politics in Italy
- US Average Hourly Earnings: consensus looks for no change in y/y terms,
no pressure on Fed, real wages look unimpressive
- US Payrolls: expected to revert to average after February/March noise,
anecdotal evidence continues to point to robust labour demand
- US Unemployment Rate: expected to dip to cyclical lows
- Week Ahead: US & China Inflation, Europe Orders & Production, China
Trade accompanied by BoE and RBNZ rate decisions, Iran nuclear deal
decision, NAFTA talks
- Charts: China Caixin vs NBS Services PMIs; Weekly FX performance;
Leveraged Loans issuance, US HY OAS average spread vs USTs, JPM
EM Bond average spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Ahead of the long weekend in UK & Ireland, there is the monthly edition of the popular financial market game show known as the US Payrolls lottery. As an accompaniment on the data front, there are the remaining Services PMI from Asia and Europe, with UK New Car Registrations and French Trade, while the events schedule is topped by no less than six Fed speakers, offering the first round of post FOMC meeting views, with the overnight RBA quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) to be digested, as well as whatever emerges out of the US China trade talks (thus far positive, but looking unlikely to yield anything concrete). On that subject, it is well worth noting the following item from Wednesday: https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...ed-buying-u-s-soybean-supplies-bunge-ceo-says . Somewhat unusually today will also be the high water mark for corporate earnings, with the following among the headliners: Alibaba, Rosneft, SK Telecom; Air France-KLM, Assicurazioni Generali, BASF, BMW, BNP Paribas, Erste Group Bank, HSBC, ICAG, Lanxess, Repsol, Rheinmetall, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Smurfit Kappa, Societe Generale, Swedish Match, Swiss Re, Vestas Wind Systems; Berkshire Hathaway, CBOE Global Markets, Celgene, Newell Brands. Looking ahead to next week, US and Chinese inflation data will top the bill, China also has Trade, while the UK sees Industrial Production, Trade, BRC Retail Sales and RICS House Prices ato accompany the BOE rate decision and Q2 Inflation report, Japan has Household Spending, Canada looks to its labour market report, and Australia to Retail Sales. Today's other focal point is the continuing pressure in EM local and foreign currency bonds along with USD High Yield (see attached charts), which given USD strength and the Leveraged Loan issuance bubble has been something of a classic slow motion car crash, though the current bout of widening remains modest by any historical standard.
** Europe - April Services PMIs **
- Final Services PMIs for France, Germany and the Eurozone are as ever expected to be unrevised from the slightly better than expected, and modestly higher flash readings, and as such the main point of interest will be (again as ever) Spain and Italy, with the latter expected to edge higher to 53.0, after a sharp fall in march to 52.6 from 5.0, though the Manufacturing PMI dip suggests this may be a little optimistic. In truth, it is hard data that needs attention, with next week's German Orders and array of national Production readings offering some indication on the momentum going into Q2
** U.S.A. - April labour market report **
- Today's labour data will once again be mostly about the Average Hourly Earnings, with Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate very much subordinate. Average Hourly Earnings are rather drearily expected to rise 0.2% m/m (which one might term the default forecast of economists) that would leave the y/y rate unchanged at 2.7%, which is not weak per se, though it looks rather unimpressive in inflation adjusted terms (using the PCE deflator just 0.7%), even though it does fit with the anecdotal evidence suggesting corporates are allocating only small fractions of the tax cut to increase wages. Equally it allows the FOMC to stick with its current auto-pilot gradual policy tightening. Be that as it may, Payrolls are expected to stabilize after the February/March noise, and post a 193K rise, i.e. around the recent average, which at this stage of the economic cycle, and along with an expected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0% from March's 4.1%, signal solid labour demand. The Underemployment Rate will also need to be watched, though it has been stuck in a range of 8.0-8.2% for quite some time, and points to a little more 'slack' in the labour market than the headline rate. Average Weekly Hours are seen unchanged at 34.5, with the focus on Manufacturing and Mining Hours (last 40.5 and a whopping 46.0 respectively). As has been noted on a number of occasions, the US labour report's cache as THE no. 1 US monthly indicator is not what it was, and it will need to spring one or more surprises to have more than the normal 'churn and burn' impact.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
U.S.A. 01:00 Atlanta Fed's Bostic, KC Fed's George and Dallas
Fed's Kaplan participate in "Monetary Policy and
Reform in Practice" at Hoover Institution/Stanford
University "Currencies, Capital, and Central Bank
Balances: a Policy Conference"
Australia 02:30 RBA quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP)
Norway 08:00 Norges Bank's Olsen & Slyngstad participate in
consultation on management of Government Pension Fund
abroad 2017 at the Storting's Financial Committee
Malta 08:45 ECB's Constancio speaks on "Central Banks in
Historical Perspective: What Changed After the
Financial Crisis?"
Sweden 09:30 Riksbank's Ingves and Elmer hold press conference on
Riksbank's gold reserve
U.S.A. 17:45 NY Fed's Dudley speaks about the “Financial tumult of
our times and the challenges ahead” on Bloomberg TV
18:30 SF Fed's Williams to be interviewed on CNBC
20:00 SF Fed's Williams speaks at Hoover Institution/
Stanford University "Currencies, Capital, and Central
Bank Balances: a Policy Conference"
22:30 Fed's Quarles speaks on "Financial Stability,
Regulations and the Balance Sheet" at Hoover
Institution/Stanford University "Currencies, Capital,
and Central Bank Balances: a Policy Conference"
# Holidays: Japan - Greenery Day; Latvia - Independence Day
- Govt Bond Auctions / Buybacks:
Australia 02:00 AUD 600 Mln 2.75% 2029 ACGB
Malaysia 05:00 MYR 3.0 Bln 0.% Nov-2033 Govt
South Africa 10:00 Size t.b.c. I/L 1.875% 2029, 2.25% 2038 &
2.5% 2050 I/L Govts
India 10:30 Regular Govt Bond auction (size INR 10.0 to 30.0 Bln)
Iceland 11:30 Size t.b.c. 7.25% 2022 & 5.00% 2028 Govts
- Corporate Earnings:
Alibaba Group (Q4 5.51) // Air France-KLM (Q1 -0.25) • Assicurazioni Generali (Q1 0.41) • BASF (Q1 1.97) • BMW (Q1 3.08) • BNP Paribas (Q1 1.26) • GEA Group (Q1 0.30) • HSBC (Q1 0.21) • International Consolidated Air (Q1 0.08) • Repsol (Q1 0.43) • Smurfit Kappa (Q1 0.57) • Societe Generale (Q1 1.02) • Swiss Re (Q1 2.63) • Vestas Wind Systems (Q1 0.48) // Acadia Pharmaceuticals (Q1 $-0.56) • Biglari Holdings (Q1 $-0.25) • Celgene (Q1 $1.96) • CenterPoint Energy (Q1 $0.44) • Cheniere Energy (Q1 $0.60) • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (Q1 $-0.10) • Newell Brands (Q1 $0.26) • Vistra Energy (Q1 $0.07)
- Further rebound in China Services PMI to be digested ahead of Eurozone
readings, all eyes on US labour data and Fed speakers, also awaiting news
on China-US Trade talks
- Eurozone Services PMIs: preliminary readings seen confirmed, Spain also
& Italy seen edging higher, downside risks due to politics in Italy
- US Average Hourly Earnings: consensus looks for no change in y/y terms,
no pressure on Fed, real wages look unimpressive
- US Payrolls: expected to revert to average after February/March noise,
anecdotal evidence continues to point to robust labour demand
- US Unemployment Rate: expected to dip to cyclical lows
- Week Ahead: US & China Inflation, Europe Orders & Production, China
Trade accompanied by BoE and RBNZ rate decisions, Iran nuclear deal
decision, NAFTA talks
- Charts: China Caixin vs NBS Services PMIs; Weekly FX performance;
Leveraged Loans issuance, US HY OAS average spread vs USTs, JPM
EM Bond average spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Ahead of the long weekend in UK & Ireland, there is the monthly edition of the popular financial market game show known as the US Payrolls lottery. As an accompaniment on the data front, there are the remaining Services PMI from Asia and Europe, with UK New Car Registrations and French Trade, while the events schedule is topped by no less than six Fed speakers, offering the first round of post FOMC meeting views, with the overnight RBA quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) to be digested, as well as whatever emerges out of the US China trade talks (thus far positive, but looking unlikely to yield anything concrete). On that subject, it is well worth noting the following item from Wednesday: https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...ed-buying-u-s-soybean-supplies-bunge-ceo-says . Somewhat unusually today will also be the high water mark for corporate earnings, with the following among the headliners: Alibaba, Rosneft, SK Telecom; Air France-KLM, Assicurazioni Generali, BASF, BMW, BNP Paribas, Erste Group Bank, HSBC, ICAG, Lanxess, Repsol, Rheinmetall, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Smurfit Kappa, Societe Generale, Swedish Match, Swiss Re, Vestas Wind Systems; Berkshire Hathaway, CBOE Global Markets, Celgene, Newell Brands. Looking ahead to next week, US and Chinese inflation data will top the bill, China also has Trade, while the UK sees Industrial Production, Trade, BRC Retail Sales and RICS House Prices ato accompany the BOE rate decision and Q2 Inflation report, Japan has Household Spending, Canada looks to its labour market report, and Australia to Retail Sales. Today's other focal point is the continuing pressure in EM local and foreign currency bonds along with USD High Yield (see attached charts), which given USD strength and the Leveraged Loan issuance bubble has been something of a classic slow motion car crash, though the current bout of widening remains modest by any historical standard.
** Europe - April Services PMIs **
- Final Services PMIs for France, Germany and the Eurozone are as ever expected to be unrevised from the slightly better than expected, and modestly higher flash readings, and as such the main point of interest will be (again as ever) Spain and Italy, with the latter expected to edge higher to 53.0, after a sharp fall in march to 52.6 from 5.0, though the Manufacturing PMI dip suggests this may be a little optimistic. In truth, it is hard data that needs attention, with next week's German Orders and array of national Production readings offering some indication on the momentum going into Q2
** U.S.A. - April labour market report **
- Today's labour data will once again be mostly about the Average Hourly Earnings, with Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate very much subordinate. Average Hourly Earnings are rather drearily expected to rise 0.2% m/m (which one might term the default forecast of economists) that would leave the y/y rate unchanged at 2.7%, which is not weak per se, though it looks rather unimpressive in inflation adjusted terms (using the PCE deflator just 0.7%), even though it does fit with the anecdotal evidence suggesting corporates are allocating only small fractions of the tax cut to increase wages. Equally it allows the FOMC to stick with its current auto-pilot gradual policy tightening. Be that as it may, Payrolls are expected to stabilize after the February/March noise, and post a 193K rise, i.e. around the recent average, which at this stage of the economic cycle, and along with an expected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0% from March's 4.1%, signal solid labour demand. The Underemployment Rate will also need to be watched, though it has been stuck in a range of 8.0-8.2% for quite some time, and points to a little more 'slack' in the labour market than the headline rate. Average Weekly Hours are seen unchanged at 34.5, with the focus on Manufacturing and Mining Hours (last 40.5 and a whopping 46.0 respectively). As has been noted on a number of occasions, the US labour report's cache as THE no. 1 US monthly indicator is not what it was, and it will need to spring one or more surprises to have more than the normal 'churn and burn' impact.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
U.S.A. 01:00 Atlanta Fed's Bostic, KC Fed's George and Dallas
Fed's Kaplan participate in "Monetary Policy and
Reform in Practice" at Hoover Institution/Stanford
University "Currencies, Capital, and Central Bank
Balances: a Policy Conference"
Australia 02:30 RBA quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP)
Norway 08:00 Norges Bank's Olsen & Slyngstad participate in
consultation on management of Government Pension Fund
abroad 2017 at the Storting's Financial Committee
Malta 08:45 ECB's Constancio speaks on "Central Banks in
Historical Perspective: What Changed After the
Financial Crisis?"
Sweden 09:30 Riksbank's Ingves and Elmer hold press conference on
Riksbank's gold reserve
U.S.A. 17:45 NY Fed's Dudley speaks about the “Financial tumult of
our times and the challenges ahead” on Bloomberg TV
18:30 SF Fed's Williams to be interviewed on CNBC
20:00 SF Fed's Williams speaks at Hoover Institution/
Stanford University "Currencies, Capital, and Central
Bank Balances: a Policy Conference"
22:30 Fed's Quarles speaks on "Financial Stability,
Regulations and the Balance Sheet" at Hoover
Institution/Stanford University "Currencies, Capital,
and Central Bank Balances: a Policy Conference"
# Holidays: Japan - Greenery Day; Latvia - Independence Day
- Govt Bond Auctions / Buybacks:
Australia 02:00 AUD 600 Mln 2.75% 2029 ACGB
Malaysia 05:00 MYR 3.0 Bln 0.% Nov-2033 Govt
South Africa 10:00 Size t.b.c. I/L 1.875% 2029, 2.25% 2038 &
2.5% 2050 I/L Govts
India 10:30 Regular Govt Bond auction (size INR 10.0 to 30.0 Bln)
Iceland 11:30 Size t.b.c. 7.25% 2022 & 5.00% 2028 Govts
- Corporate Earnings:
Alibaba Group (Q4 5.51) // Air France-KLM (Q1 -0.25) • Assicurazioni Generali (Q1 0.41) • BASF (Q1 1.97) • BMW (Q1 3.08) • BNP Paribas (Q1 1.26) • GEA Group (Q1 0.30) • HSBC (Q1 0.21) • International Consolidated Air (Q1 0.08) • Repsol (Q1 0.43) • Smurfit Kappa (Q1 0.57) • Societe Generale (Q1 1.02) • Swiss Re (Q1 2.63) • Vestas Wind Systems (Q1 0.48) // Acadia Pharmaceuticals (Q1 $-0.56) • Biglari Holdings (Q1 $-0.25) • Celgene (Q1 $1.96) • CenterPoint Energy (Q1 $0.44) • Cheniere Energy (Q1 $0.60) • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (Q1 $-0.10) • Newell Brands (Q1 $0.26) • Vistra Energy (Q1 $0.07)
C
cantagril
Good Morrow, My liege!
My BEB machine is playing up yet again so no charts from me until next week. Am fiddling about with EG and GBPCHF atm and just closed Footsie short that I held overnight.
Right now, am long GBPCHF from 1.3540 from yesterday as a proxy for EG which I think may be too volatile for my taste today. I'm thinking of 1.3565/70 as a target area which I was hoping to get with the German numbers just out a few minutes ago - so now looking for 10h00 ones to sort me out
Dentalfloss
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gbpchf...a decent place for a swing long
Dentalfloss
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cos..if yu are wrong...then 1.3520 is horizontal supp
Dentalfloss
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1.3560 minor rez area/horizontal
1.3535 minor horizontal supp
1.3535 minor horizontal supp
Dentalfloss
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yu are getting in at the bottom..hopefully
change of trend....could be slightly bumpy until new uptrend established...ie a shakeout
change of trend....could be slightly bumpy until new uptrend established...ie a shakeout
Dentalfloss
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NFP day at the day care centre
we get out the bunting
some Hokee-Cokee on our new gramophone
sandwiches and tea
possibly even a glass of sherry
we get out the bunting
some Hokee-Cokee on our new gramophone
sandwiches and tea
possibly even a glass of sherry
C
cantagril
That's indeed what I'm hoping for...but it being Friday, who knows? Am quite used to getting shaken out
Dentalfloss
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cable....
1.3550 hold..??
1.3550 hold..??
Dentalfloss
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Dax
Dentalfloss
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looks like it wants to pop
Dentalfloss
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we could retrace a tad first
or the bull flag fails
prepare for both scenarios
or the bull flag fails
prepare for both scenarios
C
cantagril
.... long GBPCHF from 1.3540 from yesterday .. I'm thinking of 1.3565/70 as a target area which I was hoping to get with the German numbers just out a few minutes ago - so now looking for 10h00 ones to sort me out
Sorted but in the opposite direction. Shaken but not out - now trading at circa 1.3530. Just going to leave it in and see what happens later in the day.
Dentalfloss
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Breaking news
Bitcoin and Ethereum now allowed in ISA"S
Bitcoin and Ethereum now allowed in ISA"S
C
cantagril
long GBPCHF from 1.3540 from yesterday as a proxy for EG which I think may be too volatile for my taste today. I'm thinking of 1.3565/70 as a target area which I was hoping to get with the German numbers just out a few minutes ago - so now looking for 10h00 ones to sort me out
Didn't get it with the Germans but the Americans were kinder
Out at 1.3570 for +30
Dentalfloss
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