Dentalfloss
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dow in rez
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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the lower chart is actually 3 rev..not 2
2 rev is now too wide to fit on the screen
2 rev is now too wide to fit on the screen
Dentalfloss
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support held on pullback
pullback this morning was from rez...which we marked premarket
US session and it starts flying
pullback this morning was from rez...which we marked premarket
US session and it starts flying
Dentalfloss
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its not a case of taking 10 or 15 points here and there...lol
C
cantagril
Also trying to use Dentists's Dax charts as p(r)oxy indicators for the Stoxx. Up all of 2 pips in 3 hours...and I thought EG was slow
Finally out at 3415 +16
Dentalfloss
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Stoxx
Dentalfloss
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Finally out at 3415 +16
range was narrow...so, a decent result
range was narrow...so, a decent result
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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Dow into the open
Dentalfloss
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close up
Dentalfloss
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supp area seems to be holding...then we test 24900
24820-24850...bulls first priority..to hold
24820-24850...bulls first priority..to hold
Dentalfloss
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24825-24850 is first supp area
24915 is a bigger rez
its in supp now...a tad bullish if supp holds
24915 is a bigger rez
its in supp now...a tad bullish if supp holds
Dentalfloss
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Dax into the open
broken out
broken out
Dentalfloss
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12300 and 12325 other supports
Dentalfloss
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spx for some poss guidance
Oscar Reed
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Think the DAX might have broken down before the start.
Dentalfloss
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Cable
pulling back..a tad
pulling back..a tad
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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US data dominates once again via Industrial Production, Housing Starts and
JOLTS; final Eurozone CPI and gaggle of Polish data the other points of
interest; UK Tory party forum on Brexit, BoE FPC meeting, Norges Bank speak
and quarterly expiry in equity futures & options the other focal points
- US Housing Starts: modest setback seen after January surge, downside
risks, but Permits likely to point to continued underlying strength
- US Industrial Production: consensus expectations for a bounce predicated
on strong surveys suggesting January weakness was an aberration
- Charts: 10 yr chart on USD LIBOR OIS spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Just for a change this week (sarcasm is cheap! Ed.), the data schedule is dominated by US statistics via way of Housing Starts, Industrial Production, JOLTS Job Openings and preliminary Michigan Sentiment, with Polish Employment, Wages, Trade and core CPI as an accompaniment, though none of the latter will shift the NBP from continuing to signal rates are on hold for the next 12 months. On the events schedule there are the Bank of England's FPC statement, the UK Conservative Party forum to discuss / debate Brexit just ahead of next week's key EU Council meeting (22-24 March), which will, it is hoped, see Brexit arrangements confirmed along with approval of the transition agreement. That politics remains alive and well as an influence was well exemplified by the jolt from the broad array of Mueller subpoenas in the US yesterday, though it was equally notable that a rare show of unity between the US, UK, France and Germany in regards to Russia has at most prompted a grudging slip for the RUB. A smattering of Norges Bank 'speak' should help to clarify the modest hawkish shift in its trajectory signalled at yesterday's meeting. It is also quarterly expiry for equity futures and options, and inevitably market attention will also be turning towards next week's FOMC and G-20 meetings. A further talking point remains the widening in the LIBOR/OIS spread to the highest level since 2011, though a closer look at at 10-yr chart of this spread (see attached) does underline that while it is high, it is nowhere near GFC levels, even if momentum points to a further increase. Eminently it has obviously not been widening due to credit fears, but far more because of increased funding rates, repatriation of offshore monies (augmented by tax cut related flows), and probably most significantly from a sharp increase in US T-bill issuance. FX and risk asset markets have been largely impervious to the move, and while this is understandable from the aspect that the USD remains weak, due to concerns about the budget and trade deficits as well as the array of political risks, should USD sentiment improve the impact on carry trades into EM, and indeed on leveraged positions will likely be brutal.
** U.S.A. - Housing Starts, Industrial Production **
- This week's run of official data has been modestly disappointing in activity terms, with inflation readings in line or below forecasts, and as such a prompt for markets to cast some doubt on the 'headwinds turning to tailwinds' Fed narrative. Today's Housing Starts and Industrial Production readings are unlikely to profoundly shift that market narrative. Eminently Housing Starts are always good for a shock outlier reading, perhaps all the more so given expectations of a 2.7% m/m drop to a 1.29 Mln SAAR pace looks to be a very modest setback after a 9.7% m/m surge to 1.377 Mln SAAR in January; post hurricane rebuilding efforts and strength in the multi-family segment continue to underpin the sector, as more than amply demonstrated by yesterday's NAHB Housing Market Index (70 vs. Feb 72). As for Industrial Production, January's -0.1% m/m headline and flat m/m for Manufacturing Output were clearly rather disappointing in the context of strong national and regional manufacturing surveys, and expectations of 0.4% m/m and 0.5% m/m are predicated on the assumption that the January data were an aberration (though the Retail Sales data will have raised doubts in some minds). Whatever the outturn for today's data, it is very unlikely that markets will cast any significant doubt that the FOMC will shift its rate corridor 25 bps next week, the key question is whether the 'dot plot' shifts to a 'four rate hike' trajectory, and whether this is accompanied by a clearer signal that the majority are more confident on the inflation outlook, as a number of speeches havd suggested in the past 4 to 6 weeks.
from Marc Ostwald
JOLTS; final Eurozone CPI and gaggle of Polish data the other points of
interest; UK Tory party forum on Brexit, BoE FPC meeting, Norges Bank speak
and quarterly expiry in equity futures & options the other focal points
- US Housing Starts: modest setback seen after January surge, downside
risks, but Permits likely to point to continued underlying strength
- US Industrial Production: consensus expectations for a bounce predicated
on strong surveys suggesting January weakness was an aberration
- Charts: 10 yr chart on USD LIBOR OIS spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Just for a change this week (sarcasm is cheap! Ed.), the data schedule is dominated by US statistics via way of Housing Starts, Industrial Production, JOLTS Job Openings and preliminary Michigan Sentiment, with Polish Employment, Wages, Trade and core CPI as an accompaniment, though none of the latter will shift the NBP from continuing to signal rates are on hold for the next 12 months. On the events schedule there are the Bank of England's FPC statement, the UK Conservative Party forum to discuss / debate Brexit just ahead of next week's key EU Council meeting (22-24 March), which will, it is hoped, see Brexit arrangements confirmed along with approval of the transition agreement. That politics remains alive and well as an influence was well exemplified by the jolt from the broad array of Mueller subpoenas in the US yesterday, though it was equally notable that a rare show of unity between the US, UK, France and Germany in regards to Russia has at most prompted a grudging slip for the RUB. A smattering of Norges Bank 'speak' should help to clarify the modest hawkish shift in its trajectory signalled at yesterday's meeting. It is also quarterly expiry for equity futures and options, and inevitably market attention will also be turning towards next week's FOMC and G-20 meetings. A further talking point remains the widening in the LIBOR/OIS spread to the highest level since 2011, though a closer look at at 10-yr chart of this spread (see attached) does underline that while it is high, it is nowhere near GFC levels, even if momentum points to a further increase. Eminently it has obviously not been widening due to credit fears, but far more because of increased funding rates, repatriation of offshore monies (augmented by tax cut related flows), and probably most significantly from a sharp increase in US T-bill issuance. FX and risk asset markets have been largely impervious to the move, and while this is understandable from the aspect that the USD remains weak, due to concerns about the budget and trade deficits as well as the array of political risks, should USD sentiment improve the impact on carry trades into EM, and indeed on leveraged positions will likely be brutal.
** U.S.A. - Housing Starts, Industrial Production **
- This week's run of official data has been modestly disappointing in activity terms, with inflation readings in line or below forecasts, and as such a prompt for markets to cast some doubt on the 'headwinds turning to tailwinds' Fed narrative. Today's Housing Starts and Industrial Production readings are unlikely to profoundly shift that market narrative. Eminently Housing Starts are always good for a shock outlier reading, perhaps all the more so given expectations of a 2.7% m/m drop to a 1.29 Mln SAAR pace looks to be a very modest setback after a 9.7% m/m surge to 1.377 Mln SAAR in January; post hurricane rebuilding efforts and strength in the multi-family segment continue to underpin the sector, as more than amply demonstrated by yesterday's NAHB Housing Market Index (70 vs. Feb 72). As for Industrial Production, January's -0.1% m/m headline and flat m/m for Manufacturing Output were clearly rather disappointing in the context of strong national and regional manufacturing surveys, and expectations of 0.4% m/m and 0.5% m/m are predicated on the assumption that the January data were an aberration (though the Retail Sales data will have raised doubts in some minds). Whatever the outturn for today's data, it is very unlikely that markets will cast any significant doubt that the FOMC will shift its rate corridor 25 bps next week, the key question is whether the 'dot plot' shifts to a 'four rate hike' trajectory, and whether this is accompanied by a clearer signal that the majority are more confident on the inflation outlook, as a number of speeches havd suggested in the past 4 to 6 weeks.
from Marc Ostwald
