Trading with point and figure

Dow updated
our rez area worked well...got a brief touch and dumped
now in a minor downtrend
will support come in..??

2ym86ww.png
 
dow and dax have very deep supp areas...just a matter of which one is the main support for the next minor rally
 
Morning,

Hmm. Today looks to me rather like yesterday. The 15m EG chart doesn't look bullish but the 5m seems perkier. More numbers and natter on both sides of the channel so more volatility.

Long just 1L EG at .8830 - will take the 20 pips if we get to .8850 before the numbers and see what happens then.
 

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Digesting hawkish leaning FOMC minutes, awaiting Ifo survey, UK GDP
details, Index of Services and CBI Retail survey and 'account' of
ECB meeting and Fed speak; Canada Retail Sales, Mexico CPI also due;
UK to sell 2036 I-L and US completes $258 Bln funding with 7 yr

- Germany Ifo: modest dip expected, but still close to post reunification
highs

- ECB 'minutes': looking for clues on timing of QE end, and some likely
elusive clarification on what 'for a long time after' QE ends, means

- ECB succession: Weidmann unlikely to be nearly as hawkish as ECB boss,
still a number of obstacles to his appointment

- Charts: Fed and ECB rate probabilities, USD index, JPM EM bond spread
vs ETF, US HY Bond OAS spread vs. Junk bond ETF

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

As China returns from the Lunar New Year holidays, the daily calendar is reasonably busy, though it is likely to be the day's Fed speakers (Dudley & Bostic) and the account of the ECB's January policy meeting, which command most attention rather than the statistical run. The latter sees the detailed first revision to UK Q4 GDP and the latest Index of Services and CBI Distributive Trades survey, with the German Ifo Survey and French Business Confidence following the modest dip in PMIs yesterday, which rather too many commentators rushed to suggest that it signalled the best was over for Eurozone growth. Otherwise US weekly jobless claims, Canada Retail Sales and Mexico mid-month CPI top the Americas schedule, while tonight brings Japanese CPI. Today's busy corporate earnings schedule looks to Anglo American, AXA, Barclays, Centrica, Deutsche Telekom, Saint-Gobain, Telefonica & Valeo in Europe, with the US seeing Chesapeake Energy, Equifax, Herbalife, Hewlett Packard & Newmont Mining. On the govt bond auction front, the UK sells 2026 Index-Linked and the US concludes this week's $258 Bln borrowing binge with $29 Bln of 7-yr. In passing, a word on the chatter around Jens Weidmann as prospective ECB president, apparently made all the more likely by the nomination of de Guidos as Vice President, and the 'fact' that Merkel secure SPD approval of his nomination during coalition negotiations. Will this mean a more hawkish ECB? Perhaps at the margin, but that depends on the make-up of the ECB council, not on Weidmann! What appears to be poorly understood, Weidmann's roots are firmly in the German political establishment (he was Merkel's chief economic advisor) , and thus he is a product of 'Ordnungspolitik'. As president of the Bundesbank and being more than aware that one size does not fit all, it has been his job to represent Germany's interests, and his attacks on ECB monetary policy have been about representing Germany's interests, he would have to adopt a different approach in his new role as ECB chief (if appointed), as such a sharp shift from Draghi's gradualism would be very unlikely to be on the cards, unless it was supported by incoming economic data AND a majority on the ECB council. The perhaps more important issue is in fact that it would mean (as was the case with Bini Smaghi when Draghi was appointed) that Lautenschlaeger would be forced off the directorate, and as the only woman, this would raise a red flag, though there are other director level positions (e.g. Chief Economist) to be filled, which could redress this position. Talking of politics, and the demands being made by hardline Conservative MPs on the govt's approach to Brexit negotiations, today will also see a meeting between PM May and her Cabinet to try and thrash out the details of 'the road to Brexit', a task that has proven to be beyond them for the past 20months.

** Eurozone - January ECB meeting 'account' **
- Hot on the heels of the Fed minutes, comes the 'account' of the January ECB meeting, which will be interesting from the aspect that there appeared to be greater overall confidence that the ECB can now signal that it intends to terminate its QE programme. The press conference made it very clear that the biggest contingency would be the updated staff economic forecasts to be published at the March meeting. Whether these minutes offer anything more definitive on what exactly is meant by interest remaining at current levels for a 'long' time after the end of the QE programme is rather dubious.

from Marc Ostwald
 
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