Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
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- 3,726
- Quiet start to the week statistically, UK Visa Spending to digest ahead
of India CPI & Industrial Production, also looking to Trump Budget &
Infrastructure proposals, digesting BoE Haldane Comments on rates;
markets very much focussed on internal dynamics
- Week Ahead: US and UK CPI top the agenda, implications for adjustment
in term premia critical
- Week Ahead: US & UK Retail Sales, German & Japan GDP also on the agenda
in holiday thinned week
- Charts: Germany/US 10 yr yield spread; US High Yield OAS spread vs Junk
bond ETF: Lipper High Yield fund flows; WTI Oil; Commodities CFTC
positioning; S&P sector performance; S&P earnings yield vs US 10 yr yield;
US Retail Gasoline Prices
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A relatively subdued start to the week in terms of data and events, with little more than Indian CPI and Industrial Production on the data schedule. Meanwhile the events schedule has OPEC's monthy Oil Market Report, following on from Friday's sharp sell-off, and in the US Trump is scheduled to put forward his budget and infrastructure spedning proposals (see comment below). However it will be the markets' internal dynamics that provide the biggest talking point. Friday's rebound in the US is being touted by some as signalling a (short-term) trough has been reached in equity markets. However a return to the low levels of volatility that has been in place in nearly all asset classes is unlikely, given that the return to a more normal level of long-term rate premia (as signalled by govt yield curves) looks to have a permanence to it, and thus requires many investors to rethink / revisit their asset allocation strategies. A return to the low volatility regime would require a clear signal that the world economy is slowing significantly - the risks are clearly in the opposite direction, and a re-emergence of fears about dis-inflation, which near term also looks improbable, in so far as one of the triggers for the recent turn in sentiment was that markets had been very complacent and heavily underpriced inflation (risk) premia.
RECAP The Week Ahead - preview: 12 to 16 February 2018
Following last week's tumult and turbulence, this Carnival and Lunar / Chinese New Year week is dominated by US economic data, and a more modest schedule elsewhere features UK inflation, along with German and Japanese Q4 GDP. There are some ECB and Fed speakers, but no G7 central bank policy meetings, while Sweden's Riksbank is seen holding policy. Politics will continue to cast a long shadow whether in the US, UK, Germany or or at this week's high level defence & security meetings. The corporate earnings schedule will again be plentiful in the US and Europe, while all of the major Eurozone countries hold auctions this week, and OPEC and the IEA publish their monthly Oil Market Reports.
* Statistically the US publishes pretty much all of its major monthly data, with pride of place likely to go to CPI. If the consensus for CPI is correct (headline 0.3% m/m 1.9% y/y vs. Dec 2.1% y/y, core 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y vs. Dec 1.8% y/y), then markets may take some comfort. But that would still give 6-mth annualized rates for headline and core of 3.6% and 2.1% respectively, with adverse base effects kicking in in the March through June period. Retail Sales will see the drop in Auto Sales drag on the headline print (exp. 0.2% m/m), but core measures are expected to be solid (ex-Autos 0.5%, 'control group' 0.4%). After a weather related 0.9% m/m surge in December, Industrial Production is expected to post a modest 0.2% m/m, though Manufacturing Output is seen picking up to 0.3% m/m from 0.1%, though the drop in Manufacturing Hours (-0.3% m/m) implies that may be a little optimistic. PPI, Housing Starts and a gaggle of surveys (NY & Philly Fed, NFIB and NAHB) are also due.
Following on from the seemingly less accommodative BoE policy meeting and inflation report, the UK has the full gamut of its inflation indicators. Forecasts imply that there will be few if any signs that the elevated levels of inflation are ebbing. CPI is expected to drop 0.6% m/m, but only edge down to 2.9% from 3.0%, while core CPI is seen down 0.9% m/m, implying an uptick to 2.6% from 2.5%, while RPI is forecast at unchanged at 4.1%. PPI requires some attention given widespread reports of businesses having to pass through rises in Input Prices (exp. 0.8% m/m 4.3% y/y vs. Dec 4.9%), though forecasts for Output Prices look for a marginal 0.2% m/m rise, and a drop in y/y terms to 3.0% from 3.3%. The seasonally very volatile UK Retail Sales are projected to recover modestly from December's -1.5% m/m with a rise of 0.4% m/m.
Elsewhere, German GDP is expected to have slowed to 0.6% q/q from Q3's 0.8%, as was implied by the preliminary data for 2017, this would see Q4 GDP up 3.0% y/y. Japan's Q4 GDP is also expected to decelerate to just 0.2% q/q or 0.9% SAAR vs. Q3's 0.6% and 2.5% respectively. It would mark the best run of sequential growth since the 1986 to 1989 period, with Business CapEx projected at a very solid unchanged 1.1% q/q, Private Consumption to rebound 0.4% after dropping 0.5% q/q in Q3, but with external demand making no contribution, and construction will also likely be a drag. The ever volatile Japan Private Machinery Orders are unsurprisingly expected to a mean reversion drop of 2.3% m/m after surging 5.7% in November, but still suggesting a solid underlying trend; PPI is also due. Otherwise there are Australian Unemployment, China monetary and lending indicators, Indian CPI and Industrial Production and Canadian Manufacturing Sales.
* Central banks: Fed speak is thin on the ground this with only Mester scheduled to speak at the time of writing, though there a good number of ECB speakers, mostly from the more hawkish wing of the council. Unsurprisingly Sweden's Riskbank is seen keep policy on hold, and some attention will have to be paid to the very gradual and tentative shift from some of the voting members to a less accommodative stance, but Ingves and the dovish majority certainly appear to be in no mood to pre-empt any moves by the ECB. In the EM / CEE space, there are policy meetings in Botswana, Egypt, Hungary, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Uganda, though no policy rate moves are expected.
* Politics: President Trump is due to announce his budget and infrastructure proposals, with reports suggesting that the GDP forecasts will be around 3.0% on average for the next few years, and perhaps more importantly, some very optimistic assumptions on where US Treasury yield will be over the next few years. UK PM May is due over the next few weeks to set out 'The Road to Brexit' in a series of six speeches (starting in Munich next Saturday), in an attempting both to quell the endless infighting in the Conservative party, and to counter considerable EU scepticism that the UK government actually has a clear picture of what it wants to achieve in negotiations (according a weekend BMG poll 74% of the UK public are unclear what the government's strategy is!). Meanwhile over in Germany, the prospects for the Grand Coalition being able to serve out a full-term look to be rapidly deteriorating, with many members of the CDU very unhappy with the coalition agreement, while SPD leader Schulz has been forced to give up on taking up the post of Foreign Minister in order to try garner the votes needed for approval from the SPD grassroots membership. The week also sees the annual meeting of NATO defence ministers, as well as the 2018 Munich Security Conference, against a backdrop of a myriad of geopolitical tensions, be that Syria and the Middle East more broadly, Ukraine or the South China Sea.
* Govt bonds: A busy week in the Eurozone with Italy kicking off proceedings ahead of Germany, France and Italy (see below), the UK sells 2057 Index-Linked Gilts and the US 30-yr TIPS, while Japan has 5-yr JGBs. Last week's turmoil saw the flow of corporate issuance slow to a trickle, and that may persist without some calm reasserting itself in equities and govt bonds.
* Corporate Earnings: Heineken, Michelin in Europe and FMC Corp and Loews get the week under way, while Tuesday has Martin Marietta, MetLife, Pepsico and Under Armour. A busy day on Wednesday has Japan Post Bank and Telstra in Asia,
Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, Liberty Global and ThyssenKrupp in Europe, while the US has Bunge, Cisco, Dr Pepper, Fannie Mae, Hilton, Marriott & Shire. Thursday brings Air Liquide, Airbus, Schneider Electric and Vivendi, and across the pond Con Edison and Bombardier. Allianz, Danone, EDF, Eni and Renault top Friday's run in Europe, with Coca-Cola, Deere & Co and Kraft Heinz rounding the week off in the US.
- Finally, if you are at a loose end this evening then tune into:
"The N@ked Short Club on Resonance FM between 9 and 10pm, live from the Burj Al-Phametriq in Dubai. Hosted by Dr. Stu, this edition will feature expert discussion of market turmoil, pensions, cryptocurrencies and other disruptions, plus heady music and psychic poetry. Guests include Paula Steele - Managing Partner at John Lamb, Marc Ostwald - Head of Research at ADM ISI, Con Keating - Head of Research at Brighton Rock, Claire Cummings - Owner, Cummings Law and Laurence Julius - Trustee, Director and Expert Investor. Poetry will be delivered by Arpit Kaushik; Dance by Ailgh O'Rhythm. Corporate sponsors: Madhoff Ponzi Bier. The show can be heard on 104.4FM within London, on Digital/ DAB in London, Brighton and on the English South Coast and via www.resonancefm.com, worldwide. Resonance is not-for-profit and a registered charity. With 4 million+ listeners, this extraordinary community radio station has been described as "the best radio station in London" (The Guardian) and "the best radio station in the world" (Village Voice"). The N@ked Short Club has been 5 times nominated for Sony Awards. This show happens during Resonance's Annual Fundraiser: go to www.fundraiser.resonance.fm for awesome auction items and details of amazing events."
from Marc Ostwald
of India CPI & Industrial Production, also looking to Trump Budget &
Infrastructure proposals, digesting BoE Haldane Comments on rates;
markets very much focussed on internal dynamics
- Week Ahead: US and UK CPI top the agenda, implications for adjustment
in term premia critical
- Week Ahead: US & UK Retail Sales, German & Japan GDP also on the agenda
in holiday thinned week
- Charts: Germany/US 10 yr yield spread; US High Yield OAS spread vs Junk
bond ETF: Lipper High Yield fund flows; WTI Oil; Commodities CFTC
positioning; S&P sector performance; S&P earnings yield vs US 10 yr yield;
US Retail Gasoline Prices
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A relatively subdued start to the week in terms of data and events, with little more than Indian CPI and Industrial Production on the data schedule. Meanwhile the events schedule has OPEC's monthy Oil Market Report, following on from Friday's sharp sell-off, and in the US Trump is scheduled to put forward his budget and infrastructure spedning proposals (see comment below). However it will be the markets' internal dynamics that provide the biggest talking point. Friday's rebound in the US is being touted by some as signalling a (short-term) trough has been reached in equity markets. However a return to the low levels of volatility that has been in place in nearly all asset classes is unlikely, given that the return to a more normal level of long-term rate premia (as signalled by govt yield curves) looks to have a permanence to it, and thus requires many investors to rethink / revisit their asset allocation strategies. A return to the low volatility regime would require a clear signal that the world economy is slowing significantly - the risks are clearly in the opposite direction, and a re-emergence of fears about dis-inflation, which near term also looks improbable, in so far as one of the triggers for the recent turn in sentiment was that markets had been very complacent and heavily underpriced inflation (risk) premia.
RECAP The Week Ahead - preview: 12 to 16 February 2018
Following last week's tumult and turbulence, this Carnival and Lunar / Chinese New Year week is dominated by US economic data, and a more modest schedule elsewhere features UK inflation, along with German and Japanese Q4 GDP. There are some ECB and Fed speakers, but no G7 central bank policy meetings, while Sweden's Riksbank is seen holding policy. Politics will continue to cast a long shadow whether in the US, UK, Germany or or at this week's high level defence & security meetings. The corporate earnings schedule will again be plentiful in the US and Europe, while all of the major Eurozone countries hold auctions this week, and OPEC and the IEA publish their monthly Oil Market Reports.
* Statistically the US publishes pretty much all of its major monthly data, with pride of place likely to go to CPI. If the consensus for CPI is correct (headline 0.3% m/m 1.9% y/y vs. Dec 2.1% y/y, core 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y vs. Dec 1.8% y/y), then markets may take some comfort. But that would still give 6-mth annualized rates for headline and core of 3.6% and 2.1% respectively, with adverse base effects kicking in in the March through June period. Retail Sales will see the drop in Auto Sales drag on the headline print (exp. 0.2% m/m), but core measures are expected to be solid (ex-Autos 0.5%, 'control group' 0.4%). After a weather related 0.9% m/m surge in December, Industrial Production is expected to post a modest 0.2% m/m, though Manufacturing Output is seen picking up to 0.3% m/m from 0.1%, though the drop in Manufacturing Hours (-0.3% m/m) implies that may be a little optimistic. PPI, Housing Starts and a gaggle of surveys (NY & Philly Fed, NFIB and NAHB) are also due.
Following on from the seemingly less accommodative BoE policy meeting and inflation report, the UK has the full gamut of its inflation indicators. Forecasts imply that there will be few if any signs that the elevated levels of inflation are ebbing. CPI is expected to drop 0.6% m/m, but only edge down to 2.9% from 3.0%, while core CPI is seen down 0.9% m/m, implying an uptick to 2.6% from 2.5%, while RPI is forecast at unchanged at 4.1%. PPI requires some attention given widespread reports of businesses having to pass through rises in Input Prices (exp. 0.8% m/m 4.3% y/y vs. Dec 4.9%), though forecasts for Output Prices look for a marginal 0.2% m/m rise, and a drop in y/y terms to 3.0% from 3.3%. The seasonally very volatile UK Retail Sales are projected to recover modestly from December's -1.5% m/m with a rise of 0.4% m/m.
Elsewhere, German GDP is expected to have slowed to 0.6% q/q from Q3's 0.8%, as was implied by the preliminary data for 2017, this would see Q4 GDP up 3.0% y/y. Japan's Q4 GDP is also expected to decelerate to just 0.2% q/q or 0.9% SAAR vs. Q3's 0.6% and 2.5% respectively. It would mark the best run of sequential growth since the 1986 to 1989 period, with Business CapEx projected at a very solid unchanged 1.1% q/q, Private Consumption to rebound 0.4% after dropping 0.5% q/q in Q3, but with external demand making no contribution, and construction will also likely be a drag. The ever volatile Japan Private Machinery Orders are unsurprisingly expected to a mean reversion drop of 2.3% m/m after surging 5.7% in November, but still suggesting a solid underlying trend; PPI is also due. Otherwise there are Australian Unemployment, China monetary and lending indicators, Indian CPI and Industrial Production and Canadian Manufacturing Sales.
* Central banks: Fed speak is thin on the ground this with only Mester scheduled to speak at the time of writing, though there a good number of ECB speakers, mostly from the more hawkish wing of the council. Unsurprisingly Sweden's Riskbank is seen keep policy on hold, and some attention will have to be paid to the very gradual and tentative shift from some of the voting members to a less accommodative stance, but Ingves and the dovish majority certainly appear to be in no mood to pre-empt any moves by the ECB. In the EM / CEE space, there are policy meetings in Botswana, Egypt, Hungary, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Uganda, though no policy rate moves are expected.
* Politics: President Trump is due to announce his budget and infrastructure proposals, with reports suggesting that the GDP forecasts will be around 3.0% on average for the next few years, and perhaps more importantly, some very optimistic assumptions on where US Treasury yield will be over the next few years. UK PM May is due over the next few weeks to set out 'The Road to Brexit' in a series of six speeches (starting in Munich next Saturday), in an attempting both to quell the endless infighting in the Conservative party, and to counter considerable EU scepticism that the UK government actually has a clear picture of what it wants to achieve in negotiations (according a weekend BMG poll 74% of the UK public are unclear what the government's strategy is!). Meanwhile over in Germany, the prospects for the Grand Coalition being able to serve out a full-term look to be rapidly deteriorating, with many members of the CDU very unhappy with the coalition agreement, while SPD leader Schulz has been forced to give up on taking up the post of Foreign Minister in order to try garner the votes needed for approval from the SPD grassroots membership. The week also sees the annual meeting of NATO defence ministers, as well as the 2018 Munich Security Conference, against a backdrop of a myriad of geopolitical tensions, be that Syria and the Middle East more broadly, Ukraine or the South China Sea.
* Govt bonds: A busy week in the Eurozone with Italy kicking off proceedings ahead of Germany, France and Italy (see below), the UK sells 2057 Index-Linked Gilts and the US 30-yr TIPS, while Japan has 5-yr JGBs. Last week's turmoil saw the flow of corporate issuance slow to a trickle, and that may persist without some calm reasserting itself in equities and govt bonds.
* Corporate Earnings: Heineken, Michelin in Europe and FMC Corp and Loews get the week under way, while Tuesday has Martin Marietta, MetLife, Pepsico and Under Armour. A busy day on Wednesday has Japan Post Bank and Telstra in Asia,
Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, Liberty Global and ThyssenKrupp in Europe, while the US has Bunge, Cisco, Dr Pepper, Fannie Mae, Hilton, Marriott & Shire. Thursday brings Air Liquide, Airbus, Schneider Electric and Vivendi, and across the pond Con Edison and Bombardier. Allianz, Danone, EDF, Eni and Renault top Friday's run in Europe, with Coca-Cola, Deere & Co and Kraft Heinz rounding the week off in the US.
- Finally, if you are at a loose end this evening then tune into:
"The N@ked Short Club on Resonance FM between 9 and 10pm, live from the Burj Al-Phametriq in Dubai. Hosted by Dr. Stu, this edition will feature expert discussion of market turmoil, pensions, cryptocurrencies and other disruptions, plus heady music and psychic poetry. Guests include Paula Steele - Managing Partner at John Lamb, Marc Ostwald - Head of Research at ADM ISI, Con Keating - Head of Research at Brighton Rock, Claire Cummings - Owner, Cummings Law and Laurence Julius - Trustee, Director and Expert Investor. Poetry will be delivered by Arpit Kaushik; Dance by Ailgh O'Rhythm. Corporate sponsors: Madhoff Ponzi Bier. The show can be heard on 104.4FM within London, on Digital/ DAB in London, Brighton and on the English South Coast and via www.resonancefm.com, worldwide. Resonance is not-for-profit and a registered charity. With 4 million+ listeners, this extraordinary community radio station has been described as "the best radio station in London" (The Guardian) and "the best radio station in the world" (Village Voice"). The N@ked Short Club has been 5 times nominated for Sony Awards. This show happens during Resonance's Annual Fundraiser: go to www.fundraiser.resonance.fm for awesome auction items and details of amazing events."
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
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dow needs to et into 24500 area
Dentalfloss
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eurusd
1.2300 area seems like a dumping ground
biggy is 1.2350/prev supp area
1.2300 area seems like a dumping ground
biggy is 1.2350/prev supp area
Dentalfloss
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our 12263 rez area held as supp area at the open....missed it..lol
Dentalfloss
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EG
in a supp area now
in a supp area now
Dentalfloss
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dax
dump from rez
excellent stuff...overshot a tad
dump from rez
excellent stuff...overshot a tad
Dentalfloss
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24535....yes sir
luvin it
luvin it
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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24535...and dump
tight stop
tight stop
Dentalfloss
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ditto 12370.......ahem...our 12350
Dentalfloss
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decent dump
Dentalfloss
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excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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$/Yen
Dentalfloss
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12300 for a pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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more fun watching the Curling
Dentalfloss
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run on GBP on friday
Eddie the Eagle disqualified
Eddie the Eagle disqualified
Dentalfloss
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Our 12350 rez area work in well today
