Trading the SPX

[ammo]

ajask, looks like you agree with a pullback at the end of this wave,do you have a top or date in mind

 

[ajaskey]

ajask, looks like you agree with a pullback at the end of this wave,do you have a top or date in mind

I think the bull move is over when this major wave is over.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2002-07-01&id=p01876170808&a=105137403&listNum=2

Waiting for the top at the end of the wave could get boring and expense for those who love to short. A time to watch for a turn is mid-June (90 days from the March turn). July/August will be 135 days for a full-up blowoff top. I would sell a move from here into July. I noticed that the SPX COTS commercials moved from slightly net short to net long last week. All the money (shorts and bond/CD holders) could decide to get in at the same time and this could go up like 1998-1999.

 

[Pat494]

It could be that some members are confusing a trending market ( which this one is ) with an oscillating market ( which at present it isn't ). So just because it's been going up and up doesn't mean to say that it will go down again ( as in an oscillating market ).
This market has still some steam left in it imho. I'm definately not jumping the gun for a short and getting caught short ! Just wait for it to top out and even that may only be retracement before going north again.

 

[ammo]

thursday is 10 trading days from may 11 reversal and also durable goods report,i think fri was a top as 2 resistance lines were touched,although our recent tops only provide a oneday selloff

 

[atholh]

Link to chart /// Ever since financial markets began recovering from the correction that began on February 27, the JPY has seen an unusually high correlation with equity markets. This could suggest that the same forces driving stock markets higher are the same that have caused the yen to weaken.

 

[ammo]

i don't trade the dollar but some chartists are claiming it's bottoming or firmingup finding support

 

[ajaskey]

Gann Angles

Here is how I believe Gann used "angles". The initial move was at the 8x1 line. Currently, we are at the 2x1 line. As long as we stay above the 1x1 line, (slope of previous move), then we are in the bull mode.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&st=2006-06-01&id=p22009629630&a=79321507&listNum=2

 

[Paddington]

ES 60 minute chart review

A sunday morning review of where we are on the SPX. Looking to go up in the short term here towards the top of its channel. Start of month and everything looking bullish for new money coming into mkt at the moment. I would have resistance being in the 1548-54 area on the June futures for a possible swing position short, marked on the attached chart. Any move above 1560 on this swing could suggest a channel break to the upside although given the time of year and speed of the move up since March this looks very unlikely

There was a good reaction friday from the early morning highs at 1543 reached on gap-up and good economic data. I was expecting to be long for daytrades but ended up shorting on two out of three trades due to the initial fast move to the upside. To me this looks a little early though to be topping and I would be looking around Wednesday/ Thursday for a swing short entry looking for a move back down to the trend line support if the market is in the range I'm looking for.

the two retracements shown on the 60 minute chart at 61.8% and 70.7% (23 and 28 points respectively) were mirrored by 50% retraces in the Dow which is looking the stonger index and would be looking for a larger rteracement than these to suggest a possible channel break if there is to be one at this time.

 

[ammo]

akask, on your page 2,spx lt,spx bear rectangle,spx sq of 52, and spx it all hit a line,are these support...short term?

 

[ammo]

if you connect nov 06 and an 07 lows you get temp support

 

[ajaskey]

akask, on your page 2,spx lt,spx bear rectangle,spx sq of 52, and spx it all hit a line,are these support...short term?

Those major lines are supportish. Can price go through them and recover? Yes. It needs to recover immediately though.

This situation appears simple to me. We have made a new short term low. We are oversold - and may become more so before the bounce. If the bounce takes us to overbought and we have not hit a new high, then it is time to sell. I use these charts to monitor overbought and oversold.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p62696406704&a=102282398&listNum=7

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p62696406704&a=102282422&listNum=7

 

[ajaskey]

Internals

A couple others to watch are the TRIN levels and the put/call level. All are near levels where I watch for a turn.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRIN&p=30&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p83656389909&a=80448581&listNum=7

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRINQ&p=30&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p97329954198&a=80448584&listNum=7

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89463897538&a=100095665&listNum=7

 

[ajaskey]

30/45 day cycle

 

[ammo]

andy thanks for the post,twas very helpful thanks

 

[ajaskey]

Mirror Mirror

What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.

 

[ajaskey]

 

[hornblower]

good chart says it all
looking to short the s &p today

 

[ammo]

tommorrow 7/25 is the 10th day since the fund managers had to get long on thur 7/12,after holding those positions for 10 days by law, we'll see if they still like em

 

[nkruger]

tommorrow 7/25 is the 10th day since the fund managers had to get long on thur 7/12,after holding those positions for 10 days by law, we'll see if they still like em

What's that all about, Ammo ? I've NEVER heard of it.....

 

[ammo]

to reduce the temptation of front running a big order,the houses{merrill,gsax,ubs....} must hold every position for a minimum of 10 business days starting with the day they made the trade,on that 240-260 point up day in the dow 7/12,they had to have been buyers on that record short squeeze,now they are stuck with them for a minimum of 10 days,tommorrow they can unload if needed or hold if it was a smart move..we'll see what the guys with all the cards do...