"Trading news"; please post examples as of Monday

[Rossini]

ha

 

[Black Swan]

i would have said that would effect the price of oil

Whale oil? Wow, that's some carry trade play.

 

[luckyd1976]

FWIW I'm looking to be converted to the ability to make trades exclusively on the basis of news, always open minded .

News traders are more LongTerm w/bigger funds. Once the Announcements come out they formulate their positions.

For us smaller players, News for me is about opportunities. Crazy stories that have no bearing on the companies fundamentals. IE... AAPL and Steve Jobs Health. That story is those prime examples of when you NEED to be a News Trader. Not so much the news but the reactions to the news creates almost risk free trades. Over the years my biggest stock picking gains have been from News Stories.

So I do agree somewhat that the News part is over-rated.

Because historically, anyone who has taken the trouble to do so has been blasted with the ‘well, anyone could say that in retrospect’. Sort of understandably too.

Very good point here Bramble...

 

[luckyd1976]

It doesn't. I don't trade the news but one of the thing I look out for is a reversal pattern just after or during high impact news. Not that I care or know what the news actually is but I know when it is. And that for me, is enough.

Exactly...
You look for those reactions. And decide if its worth it for a new Position

 

[Black Swan]

News traders are more LongTerm w/bigger funds. Once the Announcements come out they formulate their positions.

For us smaller players, News for me is about opportunities. Crazy stories that have no bearing on the companies fundamentals. IE... AAPL and Steve Jobs Health. That story is those prime examples of when you NEED to be a News Trader. Not so much the news but the reactions to the news creates almost risk free trades. Over the years my biggest stock picking gains have been from News Stories.

So I do agree somewhat that the News part is over-rated.


Very good point here Bramble...

One of the problems I'd have with news trading singularly is with for example the M&S report I mentioned yesterday. Their directors and public relations dept. 'leak' over the weekend that figures may disappoint, shares fall 1.5% yesterday, heh presto the figures aren't as bad (surprise surprise:whistling) shares rise by 10% today whilst Stuart Rose does his thing on R4 etc. making out he's the 'saviour' of the middle classes.

 

[luckyd1976]

One of the problems I'd have with news trading singularly is with for example the M&S report I mentioned yesterday. Their directors and public relations dept. 'leak' over the weekend that figures may disappoint, shares fall 1.5% yesterday, heh presto the figures aren't as bad (surprise surprise:whistling) shares rise by 10% today whilst Stuart Rose does his thing on R4 etc. making out he's the 'saviour' of the middle classes.

News does have it's inheirant problems. Leakage, lake of regularity, etc...

But some of the big News leakages can be tracked via the Options market. I dont have the software to monitor for Option Volume Monitoring Dev.

My biggest problem with News trading is that there's not enough market movable news that can be played for income. Face it most of us on these boards are here to make money. Without the deep pockets; news trading wont pay my bills.

 

[Black Swan]

News does have it's inheirant problems. Leakage, lake of regularity, etc...

But some of the big News leakages can be tracked via the Options market. I dont have the software to monitor for Option Volume Monitoring Dev.

My biggest problem with News trading is that there's not enough market movable news that can be played for income. Face it most of us on these boards are here to make money. Without the deep pockets; news trading wont pay my bills.

Bingo. Still yet to see a post to confirm specific news trading. Here's a thing, I use IG charts, yesterday for a couple of hours they went down, all of them; the simple, advanced, real time...phoned IG had a chat with one of the guys had a bit of a laugh with him, suggested he was monitoring all the calls and if a huge % of traders used them they'd make you subscribe for an extra fee...he actually said "well you could always trade the news" and began laughing...
Anyhow back on topic, I'd trade non farm pay roll and that's about it. Even then I'd sit by charts waiting for the price action, but without charts it's possibly the only thing I'd trade.

 

[luckyd1976]

Bingo. Still yet to see a post to confirm specific news trading.

Granted, no posts of mine to prove it. And I'm not big enough to make a living at NEWS. But how would you explain M&A take over announcements?

There are thousands of HFunds that play the Arb/Pair system on all Takeovers.

 

[luckyd1976]

Bingo. Still yet to see a post to confirm specific news trading.

How would you explain M&A take over announcements?

I dont want this to come across as picking on you, because I'm not. Im just curious because it seems that you dont even believe in News Trading.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Announcements and news are two diff things in my opinion.

Yahoo vs. Microsoft was everywhere and that was very tradeable.

 

[luckyd1976]

Announcements and news are two diff things in my opinion.

Yahoo vs. Microsoft was everywhere and that was very tradeable.

MHO, all Fundamentals (10Q/10K) to me is news as well. The notion that news trading just doesnt exsist, just doesnt make sense to me.

So what Announcements do and dont qualify as news???

 

[sweary_monkey]

no technicals, just fundamental research bolstered by 'stuff' (freely available in the mainstream media) that you've then traded succesfully.

OK, gonna make one post only on this thread as this seems like a fairly pointless argument. The 'news' today tells me the following: we looking at another equity capitulation here. FASB mark to mkt change tomorrow should see the financials bounce, then quickly get demolished as people realise it leaves them even scarier and Geithner's big idea dead in the water. G20 will be a disappointment no matter how it's spun as Merkel and Sarkozy have thankfully retained their sanity (USD/EUR back toward 1.25 their punishment for not rolling over). ADP data suggests non-farms will be rubbish again on Friday. S&P earnings start Tuesday and will be dreadful (potentially ex Financials if the FASB have their way, but no-one will believe them anyway) - look for EPS expectations to come down to about $45 and people to start talking about 500 again on the S&P (~3000 on the FTSE).

If that isn't instant enough for your gratification, look for long gilt futures to back off to 122.50 tomorrow when they try to auction a 30yr that nobody wants (though I'd be a buyer on weakness).

If none of the above happens: I'll lose some money (I'll live ) and you'll get to feel good about yourself, but you'll still have your head up your ****

 

[Black Swan]

OK, gonna make one post only on this thread as this seems like a fairly pointless argument. The 'news' today tells me the following: we looking at another equity capitulation here. FASB mark to mkt change tomorrow should see the financials bounce, then quickly get demolished as people realise it leaves them even scarier and Geithner's big idea dead in the water. G20 will be a disappointment no matter how it's spun as Merkel and Sarkozy have thankfully retained their sanity (USD/EUR back toward 1.25 their punishment for not rolling over). ADP data suggests non-farms will be rubbish again on Friday. S&P earnings start Tuesday and will be dreadful (potentially ex Financials if the FASB have their way, but no-one will believe them anyway) - look for EPS expectations to come down to about $45 and people to start talking about 500 again on the S&P (~3000 on the FTSE).

If that isn't instant enough for your gratification, look for long gilt futures to back off to 122.50 tomorrow when they try to auction a 30yr that nobody wants (though I'd be a buyer on weakness).

If none of the above happens: I'll lose some money (I'll live ) and you'll get to feel good about yourself, but you'll still have your head up your ****

erm..thanks for that. Head up ar5e? not so sure. Not gonna count up the on line economic feeds/news feeds/journals I subscribe to suffice to say it's considerable. However, I don't use them to trade. I read them, absorb the info. enjoy all the noise/opinion but that's about it.

You mention a bounce followed by "quickly demolished" can you put a time scale on that; day, week, month...?

You mention the Euro getting 'punished' as part of Sarky/Merkels' 'deviation' from group think....are you for real? Good luck with that... :whistling

 

[luckyd1976]

News trading. It makes everyone fight and argue the Data like Economists. Did I mention I hate Economists??? Everyone can find data and interpret/debate their view one way or another.

"They're not wrong they're just early" lol
Or "The rate of decline slowed" So less bad is Good??? lol

I hope everyone is profitable no matter how or what your views/methods to trade. Whatever works for you.

 

[sweary_monkey]

erm..thanks for that. Head up ar5e? not so sure. Not gonna count up the on line economic feeds/news feeds/journals I subscribe to suffice to say it's considerable. However, I don't use them to trade. I read them, absorb the info. enjoy all the noise/opinion but that's about it.

You mention a bounce followed by "quickly demolished" can you put a time scale on that; day, week, month...?

You mention the Euro getting 'punished' as part of Sarky/Merkels' 'deviation' from group think....are you for real? Good luck with that... :whistling

OK Guru master... 122.50 and lower hit on long gilt futs. Pure blind luck on my part.

You wanna use your voodoo to call an index and a level for tomorrow and we'll call it quits?

 

[Black Swan]

OK Guru master... 122.50 and lower hit on long gilt futs. Pure blind luck on my part.

You wanna use your voodoo to call an index and a level for tomorrow and we'll call it quits?

Nice one bud that made me chuckle...unfortunately being a short timeframe kinda whore I can only make predictions based on all my lagging indicators...
What's gonna happen in the next five minutes? er...not sure, only in two trades atm; bought ftse at 1:35 at 4050 and light crude same time at 5095...not sure how much life these trades have got left...

 

[JP1966]

Posted this on another thread but seems more relevant here. I am not saying either that you can't trade off a chart - there are thousands of different succesful styles after all. But to bash news as a method of making money is ignorant.

I have traded news for 20 years, even before you could do it on the internet and had to call for a price. Sure the price reacts quicker these days but you can still trade it.

To the oh so special Black Swan. When the gilt auction failed then Uranus might have been crossing Pluto at the time signalling a buy but no way in the world was I not selling sterling. Look at the ECB this week. Both fx and euribor etc moved on the less than expected cut and then reacted to Trichet's words once the press conference started.

How anyone can claim the price action was not in response to the news is beyond me.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Use the Spanish Hedge to handle beastly news broadcasts!

Well guys, this was a "News" trade. Maybe you guys can deploy spanish hedge for news event release ?

I didn't know what the news was until after I counted my stash of pips . Thats all the news I could care about !

Fundamentally, has the result of our efforts, made some cash ?

Anyway there is a thread for spanish hedge trades, techniques in the FX forum, just in case anyone else is , er, drawn to learning the art taught from the "woo shi spaniola trading school" thread here ; http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-discussion/57756-spanish-hedge-trades.html

Newcasters get paid to broadcast news, traders are paid from trade, regardless of the broadcast.

 

[OptionsHawk]

You can definitely get rich trading the news, especially if you get the news first. Case and point: Friday I had the rumor of the CBST Pharma takeover in my Live Trading Chat at 9:35am...well before any other site out there, and bought April $17.50 calls for $0.50, which were pricing around $2.75 by days end....nothing like 500%+ gains..

 

[Crap Buddist]

Sounds good to me Optionshawk, bit of insider dealing. I mean, who wouldn't use that information to make a killing ? You'd have to be in-human I'd say to "keep your hands off" .