Trading Gold 2009

[JER08]

Although I am not an EW follower, I do appreciate your efforts on trying to explain it to the newbies.

I coverd all longs around 940, perhas rather premature unfortunately.

If one has longs from under 920, they should hold.

It should rise steadily from around this level. If it stalls I will be very cautious to long the retracements that would entail.

 

[2be]

Although I am not an EW follower, I do appreciate your efforts on trying to explain it to the newbies.

I coverd all longs around 940, perhas rather premature unfortunately.

If one has longs from under 920, they should hold.

It should rise steadily from around this level. If it stalls I will be very cautious to long the retracements that would entail.

Hi Jer08,
I use EW when I can spot them, I also like fibs in relation to pirce and time. I like Robert Miner book Dynamic trading and his last one too. When the EW counts are challenging I just trade momentum on shorter TFs. I also like cycles, momentum intraday cycles and historic cycles like Delta. When Delta is "working" for me, the results are very impresive. I am currently making some Delta counts on Gold, but do not want to confuse others on this thread, so I am posting only EW counts.

 

[Atilla]

Hi Jer08,
I use EW when I can spot them, I also like fibs in relation to pirce and time. I like Robert Miner book Dynamic trading and his last one too. When the EW counts are challenging I just trade momentum on shorter TFs. I also like cycles, momentum intraday cycles and historic cycles like Delta. When Delta is "working" for me, the results are very impresive. I am currently making some Delta counts on Gold, but do not want to confuse others on this thread, so I am posting only EW counts.

Gold is well extended and now imo would be a good time to take profits and try some short scalps. 4H charts look very toppy toppy...

 

[2be]

Gold is well extended and now imo would be a good time to take profits and try some short scalps. 4H charts look very toppy toppy...

It might retrace a bit, but not that much especially since Mr Obama's wanders on Wall St are "working". People are running for cover and Gold is likely to be popular as value holding deposit in time of uncertainty. I went both ways totay on intraday, and agree that some retracement is on cards, how deep it shall be. who knows?

 

[Atilla]

It might retrace a bit, but not that much especially since Mr Obama's wanders on Wall St are "working". People are running for cover and Gold is likely to be popular as value holding deposit in time of uncertainty. I went both ways totay on intraday, and agree that some retracement is on cards, how deep it shall be. who knows?

I recognise S1 @ 935 may act as some support but I have S2 @ 926 and a final target of 910-915 based on 4H charts.

 

[2be]

I recognise S1 @ 935 may act as some support but I have S2 @ 926 and a final target of 910-915 based on 4H charts.

It looks that Gold has done a classic retracement and confirmed support, above 930 level, I think it is 930.9 according to the High point reached on thr 10th October 2008, the principle of RBS seems to be holding the price above the 930 level. If this level holds, which is very likely, we know what to do
Please be careful and tight SL just below the 930 is highly recommended.
If the 930 level is crossed from the upside in a decisive way, then gold is likely to fall substancially, giving good apportunity to establish shorts. Until it happens I shall be long, but my sentiment shall change to short if the 930 level does not hold.

 

[2be]

It looks that Gold has done a classic retracement and confirmed support, above 930 level, I think it is 930.9 according to the High point reached on thr 10th October 2008, the principle of RBS seems to be holding the price above the 930 level. If this level holds, which is very likely, we know what to do
Please be careful and tight SL just below the 930 is highly recommended.
If the 930 level is crossed from the upside in a decisive way, then gold is likely to fall substancially, giving good apportunity to establish shorts. Until it happens I shall be long, but my sentiment shall change to short if the 930 level does not hold.

COT - Non commercial 188,898 longs to long commercials 282,764 shorts.
Gold held today in a tight range, but trading apportunity were provided by the momentum filters. Nothing special but for sure some good points.
CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - CMX (Futures Only)

 

[Atilla]

COT - Non commercial 188,898 longs to long commercials 282,764 shorts.
Gold held today in a tight range, but trading apportunity were provided by the momentum filters. Nothing special but for sure some good points.
CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - CMX (Futures Only)

In the absence of a banking crises gold is well overbought and at major resistance on Weekly and Daily charts now.

I hold the view it will test 935 & 922-26s very soon.

I'm very bearish short term. I'll change opinion if 945-50s are breached and then we may see 988. :whistling

 

[2be]

In the absence of a banking crises gold is well overbought and at major resistance on Weekly and Daily charts now.

I hold the view it will test 935 & 922-26s very soon.

I'm very bearish short term. I'll change opinion if 945-50s are breached and then we may see 988. :whistling

Taking into account TA Gold is well overbought, yet the uncertainty over the equity and commodities ( with the exception of farming) makes gold so atractive. Also according to the well documented thesis by John Murphey, Gold is a leading indicator for the CRB index, often by several months. That might be the case with this apparent unwilligness of gold to follow the TA ATM. in this sytuation, I am taking intraday trades in both directions as I am asking the same questions, is the Gold to test 860 zone before spiking up. or will it continue its bounce from the 930+ zone. I wish I knew, but for the intraday, I am going both ways using the momentum intraday cycles without establishing the midterm position.

 

[JER08]

Gold at 970, in my humble opinion it's pretty close to a short-term top.

The fundamentals are still sound, but nothing(or most things )goes up in a straight line.

 

[Atilla]

Gold at 970, in my humble opinion it's pretty close to a short-term top.

The fundamentals are still sound, but nothing(or most things )goes up in a straight line.

I think its going to have one more burst to shake out the stops and then tank to 960-40s to test support again. I guess we are heading to 980s. :whistling

 

[2be]

I think its going to have one more burst to shake out the stops and then tank to 960-40s to test support again. I guess we are heading to 980s. :whistling

Retracement might be in place after Gold breaches 1035, then a good retracement to 932 zone (already once tested). The immediate commitment of bulls shall/might be tested around the zone of todays high @ 988. COT indicates a strong commitment of non-commercials to the long positions, and probably a to the BIG round number. If 1000 is breached to the upside the last year's scenario (the weekly bull bar in March 2008) might be repeated and the zone of 1035 shall be reached. (1032.60 exactly) from which one would expect a retracement.
I shall trade Gold in the direction of EMA72 on H1 chart as a minimal indication of the sentiment for Gold, and shall also take notice of the new data related to COT. If there are smaller retracement to EMA21, or EMA72, I would likely take this as an apportunity to add to the longs.
Once the COT data is released I shall post again.
Happy trading to all,
2be

 

[N Rothschild]

Retracement might be in place after Gold breaches 1035, then a good retracement to 932 zone (already once tested). The immediate commitment of bulls shall/might be tested around the zone of todays high @ 988. COT indicates a strong commitment of non-commercials to the long positions, and probably a to the BIG round number. If 1000 is breached to the upside the last year's scenario (the weekly bull bar in March 2008) might be repeated and the zone of 1035 shall be reached. (1032.60 exactly) from which one would expect a retracement.
I shall trade Gold in the direction of EMA72 on H1 chart as a minimal indication of the sentiment for Gold, and shall also take notice of the new data related to COT. If there are smaller retracement to EMA21, or EMA72, I would likely take this as an apportunity to add to the longs.
Once the COT data is released I shall post again.
Happy trading to all,
2be

great analysis as usual, i can see gold becoming a real bull market like oil last year if wall street continues to crumble

 

[2be]

Retracement might be in place after Gold breaches 1035, then a good retracement to 932 zone (already once tested). The immediate commitment of bulls shall/might be tested around the zone of todays high @ 988. COT indicates a strong commitment of non-commercials to the long positions, and probably a to the BIG round number. If 1000 is breached to the upside the last year's scenario (the weekly bull bar in March 2008) might be repeated and the zone of 1035 shall be reached. (1032.60 exactly) from which one would expect a retracement.
I shall trade Gold in the direction of EMA72 on H1 chart as a minimal indication of the sentiment for Gold, and shall also take notice of the new data related to COT. If there are smaller retracement to EMA21, or EMA72, I would likely take this as an apportunity to add to the longs.
Once the COT data is released I shall post again.
Happy trading to all,
2be

The abc correction might be taking place visible on the h1 chart, the 965 - 963 zone might be reached as the low of the corrective c.The vertical lines are time fibs. The minimum for the price and time for the wave (failed) c has been achieved, but I think there is more downside pressure for gold to go lower before it continues its travel to the upside.

 

[Atilla]

The abc correction might be taking place visible on the h1 chart, the 965 - 963 zone might be reached as the low of the corrective c.The vertical lines are time fibs. The minimum for the price and time for the wave (failed) c has been achieved, but I think there is more downside pressure for gold to go lower before it continues its travel to the upside.

Currently I have 965 and then 950 as targets.

If 985 is breached to the upside then I would take some long bets and have 992 & 1003 as targets.

976 is my PP and looks like we are slipping below it at the moment.

 

[normbeef]

for what its worth (not much these days) i am dumping all my gold tomorrow.. I think 990.0 is the top for now, i am feeling strangely optimistic about the world ???... I am please to see home starts plummeting i take this as a sign the housing market will begin to recover towards the end of 2009 and dollar weakness resuming soon..

This Gold rush is finished.... (maybe) lol

 

[2be]

Currently I have 965 and then 950 as targets.

If 985 is breached to the upside then I would take some long bets and have 992 & 1003 as targets.

976 is my PP and looks like we are slipping below it at the moment.

If this abc retracement turns into an impulsive 12345 to the downside, then the 930 level shall be tested. For this reason I am very conservative with the profit targets, and shall establish long position only after a swing is confirmed, and will trail the SL.
When the price gets to the 965 zone, I shall go long, and see if the move up will become the 1st EW of the 12345 impulsive move up, or if this current move becomes the 4th of a 5 ew impulsine to the downside. One of these scenarios must happen. I am currently in favour of the move up to continue, but shall trade whichever way it turns. COT data shall assist and it will be released tomorrow. In the current uncertain climat I think that the non-commercials sentiment shall be to the long side. We shall see.
As I was typing it is likely that corrective "c" might have arrived at 100% ATP of the "a".
On retest of it (if there is one) I shall go long tomorrow morning.

 

[2be]

If this abc retracement turns into an impulsive 12345 to the downside, then the 930 level shall be tested. For this reason I am very conservative with the profit targets, and shall establish long position only after a swing is confirmed, and will trail the SL.
When the price gets to the 965 zone, I shall go long, and see if the move up will become the 1st EW of the 12345 impulsive move up, or if this current move becomes the 4th of a 5 ew impulsine to the downside. One of these scenarios must happen. I am currently in favour of the move up to continue, but shall trade whichever way it turns. COT data shall assist and it will be released tomorrow. In the current uncertain climat I think that the non-commercials sentiment shall be to the long side. We shall see.
As I was typing it is likely that corrective "c" might have arrived at 100% ATP of the "a".
On retest of it (if there is one) I shall go long tomorrow morning.

So far Gold has been doing well, wander if by the end of this session we might see the round number, I have moved thr SL to protect the earnings. It looks Gold is in the 1st EW of a 5 wave impulsive, with 1035zone in mind. We shall see.
Happy trading to all,
2be

 

[2be]

So far Gold has been doing well, wander if by the end of this session we might see the round number, I have moved thr SL to protect the earnings. It looks Gold is in the 1st EW of a 5 wave impulsive, with 1035zone in mind. We shall see.
Happy trading to all,
2be

COT points to the bullish sentiment for Gold.
Non-commertials long 195.966 short 30.045
Commercials Long 90.051 short 286.411
CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - CMX (Futures Only)
In view of the above the initial target of 1035 migh well be surpassed, that however does not mean that there shall not be a significant pullback, to the mid900ds, but after reaching the 1035 zone first at the very least.
There are rumors of the shortage of gold, we know what to do when the rumors abound!
I shall continue to trade in the same direction, paying attention to the momentum cycles on intraday, and to the EMA 72 on H1, the set up which allows me to trade the mid-term and intraday cycles. I would point to the importance of the market structure emerging as an impulsive 5EW.
Wishing all a very good weekend,
2be

 

[2be]

COT points to the bullish sentiment for Gold.
Non-commertials long 195.966 short 30.045
Commercials Long 90.051 short 286.411
CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - CMX (Futures Only)

In the coming week I shall be posting very little if at all, as I have to get few other things unrelated to trading in order, and on the top of it two of my computers which I use for charting Gold have been sent for service, making it harder for me to work on Gold this week. I still have the basic daily and DT and my trading platforms open, but I do some of my TA using MT4 which for that reason has been installed on the other computer/s. Gold looks to be trending well to the upside, but one has to remember that nothing goes in a straight lines, so some retracements are likely to occur. Be carefull to discern the differenve between a pullback and retracement. Retracement being a major move in the opposite direction of the current move from a significant area of S/R indicated by confluence of various Fibs, horizontal lines drawn from the points reached by price action, often confirmed by the bar formation/s, market rythm in relation to MAs, market symetry,and so on. The current situation is very uncertain and the capital is likely to be in things of value. In that respect Gold is a good candidate, especially when one can come to the coclusion that a 50 Pound note migh be less valuable then a 1Pound coin, as the 1 Pound coin has got some scrap metal value, or after drilling 2 holes it can be used as a button, while a 50 Pound note will not do well as a roll-up.
When the nation's printers are busy the inflation is inevitable.
Have a good week and watch the 1035 level on the Gold chart.
2be