Traders: Millions by the Minute

[NVP]

This isn't a kop out in answering your question - but I have confidential agreements with my clients for obvious reasons, so I can't divulge that information.

However, I can discuss a bit about what I do.

The whole idea for my service was born out of the Financial crisis. I was shocked at how many hedge funds lost large chunks of their clients money. Some funds dropped 50,60,70% of their clients money. For supposed experts and guardians of capital, it blew me away how such blow ups happened.

Therefore, I came up with the idea for MacroVIGILANCE to offer a global monitoring service using primarily time series data and proprietary models to navigate the asset universe. The more globalised the world becomes year on year, the more connected the global macro space becomes.

The global monitoring service is in a technical investment letter style format, providing clients with a big monthly report, a weekly brief and the odd storm warning if an important market is likely to cascade.

Additionally, I do specific research for clients on a bespoke basis.

My client base is global, but especially East coast US, the Middle East and Switzerland.

I don't always get it right, but I do the majority of the time and my models will sniff out trouble in a market most of the time before the big move gets underway. Obviously, they also highlight potential opportunities to the long-side.

Most of the clients I talk with subscribe to other services and look to build their world view through many different sources. I believe my service adds some value to their process the majority of the time.

Hope this goes in some way to answering your question.

Regards,

Simon

(Jack O Clubs - if you want to receive my next monthly report complimentary - pm me on T2W with your email address or contact me via my website, cheers)

hey Simon

I am always interested to increase my network of contacts .......would be interested to hear your views and perhaps receive a complimentary copy of your next report ....especially involving forex outlook

[email protected]

N

 

[simonmaelzer]

NVP - Tks, will email you a copy when it's published.

All the best,

Simon

 

[Pat Riley]

@simonmaelzer. You've chosen a strange way to introduce yourself and showcase your wares. I took the liberty of doing a bit of dd on ya, hope ya don't mind. Your sample reports are not institutional quality and that's probably OK as we tend to have our own research departments. People that we specifically know, headhunt and can thoroughly trust once we get them on board. If you're targeting the smaller outfits then they'll not be wanting to buy in research from a one man band. You need something a little more that a UK mobile number. There's no business address and although I've only made a superficial attempt to find macrovigilance as a registered corporate entity or yourself as a registered director of any compnay - without success, others will, be sure of that and so you need to get your bona fides sorted out. The website content also ping pongs from "I" to "we" with alarmin frequency. Are you London. Paris or Oz based? The website has an au reg and was only set up a couple of years back. It's tough gettin started, but ya need to focus on being honest about who and what ya are and who ya clients really are, if any. We all have to start somewhere and there's no shame in sayin so. I wish ya good luck.

 

[ffsear]

@Pat Riley remember you can tag people using the "@" symbol @simonmaelzer

Keeps the conversation flowing

 

[simonmaelzer]

everybody is talking about me

 

[simonmaelzer]

Pat,

Tks for your feedback.

Nothing wrong in dong some due diligence, I would have done exactly the same myself. And it's easy to do it on me as my name is fairly rare. Which Pat Riley are you by the way?


Actually, I came back on to T2W after not posting for years, just to mention my Training day offering and consequently have been dragged into a debate on what am I, who I provide research for etc.etc. It was never my intention to sell the research side of the business on here.

In hindsight trying to sell anything here seems to have been a bit of a faux pas, for that I sincerely apologise to everyone.

(Note to self - don't post business related stuff on a social forum unless you have the time to deal with fallout)

I'm both UK and France(South of France) based, operating as self employed. However, using MacroVIGILANCE as my identity. I am a bit stealth it has to be said. But my personal phone number is always available to call me in person. Plus I respond to emails promptly, unlike several global brands that don't seem to.

Yes, I only use a UK mobile as my work phone contact. I like to be able to turn it off at night and not have callers from Japan of Dubai call my house at 3am and wake the baby up. Yes, I could invest in a second phone line and take the phone off the hook at night. But why have two phone contacts when one is suffice. Plus, in the daytime when I am walking around Hossegor Lake(clue to where I live) on my lunch break, clients can still contact me. Additionally, this provides a direct line to me 7days a week, wherever I am, which I think is a good thing. Any interested parties can contact me to discuss business or the markets in general. Many other small businesses only have a mobile contact e.g. plumber, builder, hair dresser - so why can't I? Maybe it's good that I am not hiding behind an institutional switchboard or a big brand? I literally put myself and work out there, the good the bad and the ugly.

Yes, the website has only been set up since 2012. But my main product since 2009 has been the Macro Vigilance report, operating from my previous website (now defunct) Simon-maelzer.com - http://www.statscrop.com/www/simon-maelzer.com

I'll take "Your sample reports are not institutional quality" as good and bad. I am definitely trying to be maverick and original with my research and it is certainly not aimed at the herd. It's largely visual based with an element of systematic-ness about it with the proprietary models. And, I'll say it here, I am not the greatest writer out there(and proof reads are a ballache (and even then the odd thing can get missed - part of life, happens at all levels)), but I think my offering is quite original and possibly unique. People who manage assets, require a spectrum of perspectives to form their world views.

So, yes MV is a relatively new venture, but my experience and research in financial markets is not. Although, I'm not a veteran like Prechter, Pesavento, Armstrong, Faber, Fuller, Griffiths, Cox, Murphy, O'Neill, Gross, Buffett etc. But I certainly do hope to have the longevity they have experienced in this industry. Incidentally, I have read many an institutional and independent research note and on the majority of times I found the independents work more informative and enlightening - just my take on things.

Oh, the poor folk who followed Lehmans and Bear Stearns work:-0

I totally agree with you on your point "I" and "We", this probably needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. That said, a third party does contribute in a smaller way to the process, but I am largely a one man band as you say.

I do have to disagree with you on "smaller outfits not wanting to buy in research from a one man band" - my humble/modest client list says otherwise. Plus, it depends on what you are offering and at what price and if an individual sees value in what you do. I can assure you, people who mange real assets do value my work. I don't put testimonials on my website, as clients generally want to remain below the radar on what sources of intel they are subscribing too.


Thanks again for taking the time to comment.

All the best,

Simon

 

[NVP]

so is this to do with the bbc programme or have I missed something ? - sorry !

 

[robster970]

so is this to do with the bbc programme or have I missed something ? - sorry !

It's certainly off topic but it is entertaining

 

[NVP]

Remember when BBC the news needed a trader to interview at short notice, and this ****ing guy is what they came up with...

"I go to bed dreaming of a recession ?"

jees think it but dont say it ...........

 

[simonmaelzer]

so is this to do with the bbc programme or have I missed something ? - sorry !

Sorry NVP, it has gone off topic somewhat.

I originally put a badly thought out publicity on T2W (the second time by accident and then a third time to be ironic). This obviously backfired, I got egg on my face and the said adverts have now been deleted. But, there were some resulting questions that followed, that I hope have been addressed.

Hopefully, I can now put my input on this thread to bed.

Totally agree with you re: jees think it but dont say it ......... Some things you just don't say e.g to the wife "you look a bit fat in that"

 

[NVP]

Sorry NVP, it has gone off topic somewhat.

Totally agree with you re: jees think it but dont say it ......... Some things you just don't say e.g to the wife "you look a bit fat in that"

he did below ............

 

[Trader333]

The DT has just published this which may be of interest:

Return of the daytrader: can you earn a living by copying other investors?

Clever new websites let you mimic the strategies of successful traders with some claiming a sure-fire route to riches

It promises an irresistible combination of wealth and independence. All you need is a computer and an internet connection and then you can earn a fortune from the comfort of your home.

This is the lure of financial trading for profit. As the popular BBC programme Millions by the Minute has shown, the dream seems to be gaining hold. It appeals to parents who hope to be able to squeeze in some profitable trading between school runs. And it is equally a way out for those who simply don’t want or don’t fit into the corporate world of the office.

Now (NYSE: DNOW - news) the world of social media has added an additional, attractive twist to the dream of being your own boss and making a killing. With “copy trading” which enables you to mimic the investment moves of the “professionals” you can supposedly cash in even if you know nothing at all about the markets.

Derrick Clark, a 43-year-old businessman, was keen to trade the global currency markets in his spare time to pull in a little extra income. He was excited about the possibilities, but also in awe of the challenges and pitfalls.

He knew rapid buying and selling of shares and other financial securities was notoriously tricky and that many beginners struggled to make a profit. Copy trading, however, seemed to offer a solution. It seeks to bypass many of the headaches involved in trying to become the next Warren Buffett.

Mr Clark signed up with ZuluTrade, one of a number of fast-growing copy trading or “social trading” platforms that allow novice traders to mimic the strategies of more experienced investors. The premise is simple: if you decide to “copy” another trader and they bet, for example, on the pound rising against the dollar, then so will you. Other providers include eToro and Currensee.

“Trading can be hard,” said Anastasios Frangos of ZuluTrade. “But with social trading there’s no need to study the markets. It’s ideal for people who don’t know how to trade they can simply copy more experienced traders.”

ZuluTrade customers sign up with a third party broker to trade the foreign exchange (“forex”) markets and an account can be opened for a few hundred pounds. It ranks its traders by historic performance to help users decide who to copy.

Mr Clark carefully analysed the data before he risked his hard-earned cash. At first it went well and he made some money. One particular trader had an army of copiers and looked like a safe pair of hands. “I watched him for 10 months and he never lost on a trade,” Mr Clark recalled. “But then it went horribly wrong.”

The market moved sharply in the opposite direction. Mr Clark closed his position quickly but others were not so lucky. “This trader lost millions in live accounts. It was epic.”

ZuluTrade has since introduced a raft of risk protection measures that seek to safeguard its users. But Mr Clark remains unconvinced.

“It’s just not realistic to think that anyone can accurately predict any market, especially forex, the vast majority of the time,” he said. “In my experience every trader with a lot of followers will eventually crash and burn.”

The biggest social trading platform is eToro, which has more than three million users worldwide. The firm’s boss, Yoni Assia, likens its offering to social media sites such as Facebook (NasdaqGS: FB - news) that allow people to chat and share online. “We’re a social network,” Mr Assia said. “It’s a place where people can communicate, follow and copy each other. It allows people with less understanding of the markets to see what more experienced investors are doing.”

>> Revealed: The top investments for monthly income

Customers are allowed to risk only 20pc of their total equity copying any one trader and an account can be opened for as little as £30. eToro operates like a spread-betting platform, allowing customers to bet on major markets but without the need to stump up the full value of the transaction.

However, the “spread” the gap between the buy and sell price on eToro can be more expensive than with well-known spread-betting operators such as IG Index and City Index.

“We’re helping people discover the wisdom of the crowds,” Mr Assia added. “By copying other traders people gain a better understanding of the markets and our research shows that eToro users are consistently more profitable than people who just trade manually.”

Brett Cooper runs a website that reviews copy trading providers and has written a book to help novices navigate the sector. He said: “Many platforms give the impression that it’s easy to make money copy trading, but it’s not. Finding someone to copy who knows what they are doing is hard and many of the traders on these platforms are just out to make a quick buck.”

On some platforms it looks as if a particular trader has made solid gains, Mr Cooper said, but the underlying data reveals that they are sitting on a number of losing positions that they have not closed yet in the hope the trades will bounce back.

“You still need to do your homework and put the time in,” Mr Cooper said. “You still need to apply careful risk assessment methods before you copy another trader.

“It’s still risky and the majority of people are not actually making any money.”

'It’s not life-changing but it is something I really enjoy'

How do “copy trader” sites work and if you sign up to one, who exactly are you copying? And how much does it cost?

Anyone can become a “popular investor” on eToro or a “signal provider” on ZuluTrade if they can convince enough people to copy their trades. “Signal providers” receive a commission for each trade executed by a live follower account while eToro rewards “popular investors” based on the number of copiers they rack up.

Unlike its rivals, Currensee vets the traders on its platform and customers choose from a select band of experienced traders to copy. It charges a 2pc service fee on the average capital in a user’s account.

Thomas Glaser (pictured at the top), a software developer from Berkshire, has been trading with eToro since April. Early on, one of the forex traders he was copying went bust, taking with them hundreds of copiers. “I was lucky to get out relatively unscathed,” he said. “There are a fair share of reckless traders out there.”

But he persevered, now sticking to blue-chip stocks. Over the past six months he has built up his own legion of copiers and has made a 6pc gain.

“It’s not a life-changing amount of money but it is something I really enjoy.”

 

[0007]

The DT has just published this which may be of interest:

Quite an informative article for those who are prepared to read it, digest and act sensibly. However, I feel that the "social traders" will bypass all that and just see the road to riches – probably appeal to those who go in for the near-certain loss of the Lottery every week.


I would have thought that the best place for any new trader – social or otherwise – to look is on this very site here where advice and opinions range from not so smart to really top notch. Anyone with half a brain cell who is prepared to do the study could do very well. Perhaps the best use of the television programmes on trading (does their popularity now mean we now at the top of the market?) is to illuminate the folly of the situations that some people are getting themselves into.

 

[Pat Riley]

“We’re helping people discover the wisdom of the crowds,”


Right. There was me thinking the original term was the madness of crowds.

 

[Forexmospherian]

The DT has just published this which may be of interest:

The comments from Mr Clark was interesting - re ' I followed a trader for 10 months and he did not have one losing trade - then it all went wrong etc etc'

That would mean one of three things normally -

The guy never closed losing trades and would be prepared to wait six months or even years for them to go back into a profit - OK with large capital and very very small stake sizes or with hedging - but so inefficient

The guy deliberately hid losing trades as he expected within 1000 pips or three months - they would turn and go his way

The guy made less than 20 or 30 trades and so was on a winning roll - and maybe never thought he may have 7 or 10 losers in a row etc

Newer traders copying would maybe not understand this and think - 10 months - no losing trade - this guy is one to back with the farm etc etc

If any new trader is looking at copying other successful traders - only copy those traders with over 5 years experience and at least 1000,- yes 1000 live trade history

That rules out 90+% of all swing traders and at least then if you do find someone - he might be good

Regards

F

 

[Mr. Charts]

“We’re helping people discover the wisdom of the crowds,”


Right. There was me thinking the original term was the madness of crowds.

Sometimes it's very profitable to run with the crowds as long as you wave goodbye when the crowds slow down before they reverse. You certainly don't want to stand in front of them charging at you, basking in the dubious self-delusional pleasure of being a contrarian.

 

[Pat Riley]

Sometimes it's very profitable to run with the crowds as long as you wave goodbye when the crowds slow down before they reverse. You certainly don't want to stand in front of them charging at you, basking in the dubious self-delusional pleasure of being a contrarian.

You're right in so far as it's six of one and half a dozen of the other. The problem comes down to inflexibility. If you're always with the crowd or always against it you're not going to do too well at all. And I'd suggest there's a distinct difference between the crowd and the money. The two sets merge and diverge. Bit like a Venn-Euler diagram with two circles where they are never quite totally discrete sets, but often there's little overlap.





I was agreein with ya by the way.

 

[Mr. Charts]

You must be flexible with the markets and go with the facts, rather than sticking with an opinion. Markets don't care about your opinion.
You sell when there are still people wanting to buy.
You cover shorts when there are still people wanting to sell.

 

[NVP]

NVP - Tks, will email you a copy when it's published.

All the best,

Simon

appreciated - and best wishes in your ventures

N

 

[neil]

Make-a- Loads-a- money

A mention on Elite Trader re the Porsche guy who didn't mention he was a vendor

www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/a-new-trader-documentary.286609/page-2