Tossing a coin 500 times

[Mathemagician]

I don't think this is correct. It is an OR function, not an AND function: OR is adding the odds, AND is multiplying.

You have a 1/10 chance if you touch person A OR B, so 1/10 + 1/10 = 2/10 = 20%

It is correct. NOT(A OR B) = NOT(A) AND NOT(B).

jj

 

[firewalker99]

I don't think this is correct. It is an OR function, not an AND function: OR is adding the odds, AND is multiplying.

You have a 1/10 chance if you touch person A OR B, so 1/10 + 1/10 = 2/10 = 20%

That would imply there is no chance you will NOT get ill if you come in touch with 10 persons (1/10 + 1/10 ... = 100%) or more (>100%). You see, that can't be right

 

[firewalker99]

Please elaborate comrade.

Instead of flipping coins manually, try random.org.
You can generate up to 10.000 integers at once (1 and 0, with 1 being heads and 0 tails). You'll see it's very hard to come anywhere near a perfect 50:50, unless you start generating millions of numbers or flipping millions of coins.

 

[new_trader]

That would imply there is no chance you will NOT get ill if you come in touch with 10 persons (1/10 + 1/10 ... = 100%) or more (>100%). You see, that can't be right

Yes, I re-read the question.

 

[FXSCALPER2]

It is correct. NOT(A OR B) = NOT(A) AND NOT(B).

jj

Or A & B

 

[new_trader]

From my 500 - i have 260 heads and 240 tails. If i continue to flip, eventually i will get back to a perfect 50:50 split. Perhaps that is when i should stop flipping.

Are you trying to determine whether or not you have a fair coin or do you just want to achieve a 50/50 split in your results?

 

[Captain Currency]

i have 260 heads and 240 tails.

Thats one hell of an animal you have there JTrader

 

[peto]

Ok, I didn't do the toin cossing but I did another thing couple of years ago.
Picking 4 cards from a full deck trying to get at least a pair.

Amazingly enough, at one point I had a 4 four a kind...
You realize what the odds for that are? About 1 in a 6,5 million.
... :cheesy:

This is one of the very popular misconceptions where people mistakenly assume the odds to be much smaller than they are in reality.(*)

Is that correct? Assuming no jokers.....I make the first card a valid choice regardless of what you pick. 3 matching cards remain in the pack (of 51), so your second pick is a 51/3 chance of being a pair = 17/1. If you succeed then 2 matching cards remain in the pack so your chance of 3-of-a-kind is 50/2 on the next pick = 25/1. If successful then only 1 card in 49 must be chosen on the next pick. 49*25*17 = 1 in 21,000 ish

I loved the Monty Hall problem, not seen that before, thanks!

 

[firewalker99]

Is that correct? Assuming no jokers.....I make the first card a valid choice regardless of what you pick. 3 matching cards remain in the pack (of 51), so your second pick is a 51/3 chance of being a pair = 17/1. If you succeed then 2 matching cards remain in the pack so your chance of 3-of-a-kind is 50/2 on the next pick = 25/1. If successful then only 1 card in 49 must be chosen on the next pick. 49*25*17 = 1 in 21,000 ish

Yes 1 in 20825... my mistake! Thanks for pointing that out peto!
Looks like it wasn't so 'magical' after all lol.

I loved the Monty Hall problem, not seen that before, thanks!

Really? There are books written about that problem alone

 

[JTrader]

600 flips

Did 100 more flips yesterday = 45 heads 55 tails,
so now up to 305 heads and 295 tails.

 

[firewalker99]

Did 100 more flips yesterday = 45 heads 55 tails,
so now up to 305 heads and 295 tails.

I did 100000 yesterday in Excel
I was surprised at how far I was still off target.

 

[JTrader]

I did 100000 yesterday in Excel
I was surprised at how far I was still off target.

I like to exercise my fingers & thumb, thats why i toss manually...sorry i meant flip :whistling.

 

[JTrader]

...

all kinds of stuff.
the only advice I could give is dont flip coins when the 1:30pm PPI news is coming out, else you could get royally spiked.
(memo to self: print off the days major news events and nail it to my screen)

- i can just picture the scene!

Yes printing off the calendar each week is a bit of ball acher, and you still need to check for updates as sometimes they add announcements to the list late (forex factory). Also a good idea to print off the monthly oanda fx trade calendar.
I've done the same thing - forgotten about the news when in a trade, and it cost me about 10 pips. Just one of many mistakes that i am capable of!
Again, its sods law, i think if you make such a mistake, you are likely to get punished - as price will probably go against you - despite there being a 50:50 chance the news spike will go for or against you .

 

[firewalker99]

Are you trying to determine whether or not you have a fair coin or do you just want to achieve a 50/50 split in your results?

Interesting question and I'm surprised nobody has yet responded to it.

My question to you: from what point would you determine a coin to be unfair?

 

[new_trader]

Interesting question and I'm surprised nobody has yet responded to it.

My question to you: from what point would you determine a coin to be unfair?

I thought about your post with confidence level. Most people flipping a coin probably have 100% confidence that the coin they are flipping is fair. In which case, a coin flipping experiment is pointless because each flip will yield a 50/50 chance of H or T irrespective of the number of flips.

Surely a person must determine that the coin being flipped is fair before they embark on any sort of scientific study of their flipping performance, otherwise the results are invalid.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

if the coin flipping is in some way to determine a correlation with likely success in the market, why not use 3 playing cards, say Jack, Queen & King to better represent market action?
One each to determine "market UP", "market DOWN", "market SIDEWAYS".
Or better yet, add in the Ace for "market went your direction for a little way, you moved your SL to B/E, then reversed for a scratch trade"

Play the first card, let's say a Jack, "market UP". You now place your wager on continuation (Jack), or reversal (Queen). If you're right you double your money, if you're wrong you lose it and if you draw the consolidation card (King) or SAR (Ace) you get your stake refunded

 

[rathcoole_exile]

No ? no takers, no comments ?

 

[firewalker99]

No ? no takers, no comments ?

hadn't noticed your post...

as for comments, well for starters one would have to determine what he means with "market goes up" or "market goes down"... it's very vague and relative until you attach some absolute points to it, no?

 

[tomorton]

if the coin flipping is in some way to determine a correlation with likely success in the market, why not use 3 playing cards, say Jack, Queen & King to better represent market action?
One each to determine "market UP", "market DOWN", "market SIDEWAYS".
Or better yet, add in the Ace for "market went your direction for a little way, you moved your SL to B/E, then reversed for a scratch trade"

Play the first card, let's say a Jack, "market UP". You now place your wager on continuation (Jack), or reversal (Queen). If you're right you double your money, if you're wrong you lose it and if you draw the consolidation card (King) or SAR (Ace) you get your stake refunded

This thread is a good bit of fun but we're not trading the probabilities of coins or cards. The market is an expression of player's experiences and expectations, made visible through their trading which translates into price. So, if a coin comes up heads 19 times straight, I can't make a better bet on whether the next toss will give heads or tails, the probability remains 50%. But I can trade on the expectations of a million market players on the result of the next toss and I would bet that more than half of them would say tails are more likely than heads and they would 'go long' on tails. This makes a market.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

hadn't noticed your post...

as for comments, well for starters one would have to determine what he means with "market goes up" or "market goes down"... it's very vague and relative until you attach some absolute points to it, no?

no mate, you play the game according to your own parameters. for someone with a 1:1 RR, 20 point SL means 20 point TP.
Whatever your limits are, play the game, you'll see the same, zero expectancy of profit, until you gain an edge (which I know you and many others have)