TheBramble's Random Squawk

NFP – prev. 115k. Est. 150k.

Scenario #1. Number comes in lower, but prev gets revised downward which makes current (lower than est.) number slightly better than revised prev.
Result: Spikes across all FX pairs with closing level ending up where it would have been had you drawn a trendline through the action up to the data release.

Scenario #2. Figure comes in as est.
Result: Spikes across all FX pairs with closing level ending up where it would have been had you drawn a trendline through the action up to the data release.


Scenario #3. Figure comes in above est.
Result: Spikes across all FX pairs with closing level ending up where it would have been had you drawn a trendline through the action up to the data release.


Scenario #4. Figure comes in below est.
Result: Spikes across all FX pairs with closing level ending up where it would have been had you drawn a trendline through the action up to the data release.
 
OK. Scenario #5. Number comes in lower, but prev gets revised downward. However today's number is still lower than revised prev. and everyone has to admit, finally, having tried every fudge & finagle in the book, whichever way you slice it, it really is lower.
Result: Spikes across all FX pairs with closing level ending up where it would have been had you drawn a trendline through the action up to the data release.
 
With yields going negative it won’t be long before the great unwashed with mortgages receive their 1st check/cheque from the finance company.
 
Depending on your viewpoint, FB is either finding Support (at last) at $28, or, if you're honest, Resistance.
 
TheBramble said:
Depending on your viewpoint, FB is either finding Support (at last) at $28, or, if you're honest, Resistance.
Click to expand...

I reckon it's nostalgia. That was the first price set for FB before the analysts in their wisdom talked up the price to erm... $38.

True assessment really is probably down to long secret lunches with key decision makers' palms being greased with various numerous inducements of one kind or another.

How can the investment community get this so wrong? or

How skilled the investment community is to pull off another stunt so shortly after the banking rescue with trillions stolen from the tax payer?


I'd be very surprised if FB makes it big in next 3-5 years. Their current big idea is to release a new phone. What are they expecting to achieve against Apple or Google and Samsung? Beggars belief???
 
Atilla said:
How can the investment community get this so wrong?
Click to expand...
Consider the investment profile of the average buyer of this stock. There wasn’t an awful lot of professional activity in the buy-and-hold area. There was a considerable amount of professional pump & dump.

Atilla said:
How skilled the investment community is to pull off another stunt so shortly after the banking rescue with trillions stolen from the tax payer?
Click to expand...
One word difference makes all the difference. ‘Skilled’.

Skilled investment community = Pro
Investment community = Mugs/Muppets

How did they pull it off? Same way they always do. Plus this time they had a lot of help with the media hype AND because the World and his wife thought they knew the product. Using the superficial product (Facebook) and knowing the real product (deep investment grade analysis and due diligence into current and projected true valuations) are two very different things, as they have found out to their cost.

TheBramble said:
Not that this will have impact on the IPO, but it’s priced on the rate of increase of membership being maintained when it is in fact falling (the rate of increase, not the membership) and a nominal sales target ‘value’ of around $75 per user compared with the real current value of around $17. Not that reality necessarily needs to set in immediately, but when price seeks value, which it always does, there will a major unloading.
Click to expand...

This information was available well before the IPO on May 18th. It was there to be found for anyone who was interested. The sheep never are for the simple reason they are sheep and always will be sheep. Bar none.
 
60% of the US Navy fleet will be stationed in Pacific by 2020. Leon Panetta.

This will delight the Chinese as they need an excuse (aka stimulus package) to build some more warships and station the majority of them along the US Eastern Seaboard.

Which makes a lot of sense really. With the global mercantile economy slowing to a stop, defence has always been a great way to apportion funds and hike spending with very little popular opposition. Not that China and Russia have too much of a problem with popular dissent, but with Putin re-igniting (uh…) their Cold War and with the US and China on course for refreshing their rather tepid one, we can look forward to the good times again.

It’s been a while since the Americans mixed it with the Chinese (albeit unofficially).

Buy defence.
 
TheBramble said:
Honesty is always the best policy. LOL.

$23 looking more and more like the Alamo. Yeeeeharrrrr!!!!
Click to expand...

I looked at this alternative website launch opportunity below a while back but turned it down........see how it flys now ....IPO anyone ?

N

arsebook
 
TheBramble said:
...the recent proposal from the Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklun (German Council of Experts) seems quite sensible. Repackage EU debt through Euro-bonds but only down the 60% of GDP level for each constituent EZ country. Funding to be met by 25-year bond and serviced through increase to VAT.
Click to expand...
From a week back, subsequently muddied by the plan to secure 20% of the repackaged debt with physical national assets as collateral which would effectively be held by Germany for liquidation in the event of any minor infraction of fiscal pact (not even full, or even partial default).

Well, guess what…what should and could have been a major individual EZ nation hold off seems unlikely now on a political level as it appears to be woven into the fiscal pact to which the muppets have already signed.

This now has a very likelihood of going through, both the debt re-packaging down to 60% of GDP through what will be possibly in all but name, a joint Euro-Bond with Germany taking control of 20% of EZ physical assets as collateral.

Man-in-the-street won’t like it, but the governments have it seems almost entirely unwittingly, (surely?) signed up to it.

This is not going to apply to Greece. Guess they haven’t got much left that our Teutonic friends want.

Let’s hear it for “Eine Tausendjährige Reich!!!“
 
TheBramble said:
From a week back, subsequently muddied by the plan to secure 20% of the repackaged debt with physical national assets as collateral which would effectively be held by Germany for liquidation in the event of any minor infraction of fiscal pact (not even full, or even partial default).

Well, guess what…what should and could have been a major individual EZ nation hold off seems unlikely now on a political level as it appears to be woven into the fiscal pact to which the muppets have already signed.

This now has a very likelihood of going through, both the debt re-packaging down to 60% of GDP through what will be possibly in all but name, a joint Euro-Bond with Germany taking control of 20% of EZ physical assets as collateral.

Man-in-the-street won’t like it, but the governments have it seems almost entirely unwittingly, (surely?) signed up to it.

This is not going to apply to Greece. Guess they haven’t got much left that our Teutonic friends want.

Let’s hear it for “Eine Tausendjährige Reich!!!“
Click to expand...

will it be floating or fixed ?...........I think that will push Greece over the Edge if they see the Germans holding the Deeds to the Acropolis....

lot of double glazing needed though to get it up to scratch again as a Biergarten....

N
 
the Eiffel tower would look nice on Merkels' mantelpiece.....
 
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