The need for certainty/ need to be right

[neil]

You would need to do away with bad thinking that has adverse effect on your trading. When you have a negative trade, try to find out why and how you could improve your trading.

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[Babyblush]

Its very much difficult to be right all the time because the traders are also human beings. Its always good to be on the profit side that's all and we do not need all the trades to be a winner for this to happen.

 

[Profitsniper007]

In the markets, people who feel a need for certainly are often afraid of losing money.

I think trying to right every time would be something that would be extremely frustrating.

I have a need for certainly, certainty that my strategy will work overall.

I don't need to be right every time, I just need to be able to do what I am in the game to do ... be net profitable.

 

[Babyblush]

Trading with certainty is very much essential for the traders so that they can manage the trade efficiently.

 

[NVP]

based on my experiences of fellow traders (newbies especially) and their backgrounds ...............the ones that need the affirmation of being right all the time with the exacting support of indicators and calculations and slide rules and spreadsheets blah blah ........

Are the ones doomed to eventual failure & denial or indeed years of frustration and insanity ..........

you have to expect and incorporate a lot of Market change and unpredictability into the gameplan and adapt as you go ............otherwise you will never succeed in trading

N

 

[Shakone]

Trading with certainty is very much essential for the traders so that they can manage the trade efficiently.

No, the opposite. You need to be able to trade with uncertainty. Perhaps you meant confidence rather than certainty.

 

[Joules MM1]

No, the opposite. You need to be able to trade with uncertainty. Perhaps you meant confidence rather than certainty.

agree....there's chasm between a confident strategy that trades through an uncertain price and having confidence about where price is going.....that chasm can be summed: one is business and the other is gambling

as this is a newbie question requiring a response for newbie readers:
the difference as far as the "need to be right" goes is that you can still smell the coffee and make money with a positive expectancy (forward tested strategy) but you'll puke or oversize very quickly when "certainty" becomes fear without a proven strategy....most traders who fail do so not because of irregular thinking or poor personal habits (although does contribute) but because they simply dont have a plan, lack knowledge and lack account size....go to any chat room and ask a probing question and see how quickly a definitive strategy is replied, rarely so and it's the distinct (business) reason that many consistant earning traders charge good money to watch their chats, not because they know where price is going but because they can quickly isolate data, appropriate size, know when to sit on their hands and that has nothing to do with some guru prescience which most newbies might think they have...

even a trader who spends way too much time looking at indicators (=once!) can still make an income if they have a forward tested strategy, the difference being rate of return and cost of time....i've seen some top proprietry indicators give false positive signals, yet, the writer still laughs because the strategy simply said to rely on the trade plan at hand and their work has a high win-to-loss ratio.....so, it doesnt matter if youre a DOM player or a swing trader or coin to sser: simply have a trade plan....the need to be right is the need to look good in front of other people and frankly no ones gives a **** if you make a squillion or not because youre not puting it in their account and if you made a squillion without knowing how you did then you'll cough it straight back up again, anyway!

the truth is, most people who blow their accounts simply want to trade want to be in the game, look good, they have no interest in running a business .....

if you want to know if youre speaking to a good trader just ask them to explain recent draw downs and they'll be able to elocute each one on it's own merits and you could call them positive losses because the trader has not veered from the proven plan, the trader simply accepts that there is a win/loss ratio that affects all transactions....the only exception to this conversation is the loss of time employing a plan that requires a dumb turnover to build capital, youre always in the mode of refining the proven plan rather than recovering from no plan at all.....

another thing...philosophical strategy is not the same as actual strategy...this should be fairly obvious, but, truth is, again, go to any chat room globally and you'll find a larger % of talk that is less than strategic and more inline with folk lore euphemisms and gallant urban legends.....they all cook their accounts :-0

certainty cannot be measured in the auction process except in hindsight yet your own reaction to price is measured (sayings from the gallant urban legends volume 1 )

 

[Splitlink]

I think that the need to be right is an essential ingredient for anyone who has others dependent on his judgement.

There are situations, not only with trading, that require a person to be right. Right all the time is not possible but it, nevertheless, is the target that must be aimed for, always. Otherwise, stay out of the limelight.

I read posts, here, for example, where the writers are eager to show their skills to the rest of us. It does not take many mistakes before I dismiss their ideas and move on.

 

[barjon]

............the trader has not veered from the proven plan, the trader simply accepts that there is a win/loss ratio that affects all transactions....

It's quite interesting that most of the good traders I know do not have a plan to the degree of see X, do Y. It's more like see X, weigh up the pros and cons, do Y. Without exception they all have a well thought out strategy which is applied consistently without deviation, but their edge comes primarily from "weighing up the pros and cons". The best of them do that somewhat intuitively and find some difficulty in explaining the various factors that led to their decision.

 

[Joules MM1]

It's quite interesting that most of the good traders I know do not have a plan to the degree of see X, do Y. It's more like see X, weigh up the pros and cons, do Y. Without exception they all have a well thought out strategy which is applied consistently without deviation, but their edge comes primarily from "weighing up the pros and cons". The best of them do that somewhat intuitively and find some difficulty in explaining the various factors that led to their decision.

after writing a long long post, i reduced it to this simple analogy

got no knowledge, get no money (or worse)

you can probably count the number of "good" traders you know on one hand compared to the membership of this site and they didnt get "good" by instant soup intuition.....they may use instant intuition and talk talented now, but, good traders get to stay "good" traders thru knowledge whether by study or hard experience.....it's all knowledge/understanding and focus but you still need a strategy no matter how loosely framed......science before art

start with some knowledge build till it's got auto functions ....