The Journey from the Basement

[darktone]

May I comment on developing trading psychology?

Why do u think Argentina lost Copa America to Brasil? Argentina had better players AND they DID play better than Brasileiros.

Why - when D'Alessando (the highest paid player in South America) came to the ball to fire the first penalty - I KNEW he was not going to put it away? (actually I bet 6:1 on that and got lousy 600 Mexican pesos)

That is PURE psychology. And that is EXACTLY how it goes in trading.

Hmmm

You KNEW he was not going to put it away? then why did you only return 600 pesos?

Id like to suggest, that in your opinion (for whatever reason), you suspected hed miss and you had the strength of hand to back your opinion with your hard earned, even though the sentiment at 6:1 was very much against you. I found myself im a similar situation with the womens Wimbledon final this year when Serena hadnt been on form, Sharapovas form and composure under pressure was most impressive in comparison. In my opinion she had an excellent chance of winning and with odds of 4:1 it was clear there many 'weak hands' in the market. I placed my bet and sat back and enjoyed the game.

Through my eyes the market is made of strong and weak hands. The strong hands are comfortable selling resistance and buying support, they cut their losses quickly, they feel they dont 'need' to have a position. They have built this strength (in super rare cases born with it) through loosing their money and persisting over time with the attitude to never give up. They have been 'battle hardened'. The weak hands need proof, they chase the lows and the highs, they screenwatch mesmerised by the charts and rarely feel the need to not be in the market. They are weak because they lack experience and have little idea as how to handle risk, they probably havent yet had the pleasure of being stuffed by the market.

I know i will die. I know i love my kids. I know politicians will always lie ... I don't know what the market will do tomorrow but i do have an opinion, as long my hands stay strong and i am able act without question all will continue be well with my trading.

regards
dt

 

[GirlPower]

Hmmm

You KNEW he was going to put it away? then why did you only return 600 pesos?

China White said she knew he was not going to put it away. And it may have been a 'lousy' 600 pesos, but in terms of risk-reward it was a rather nice.

 

[darktone]

China White said she knew he was not going to put it away. And it may have been a 'lousy' 600 pesos, but in terms of risk-reward it was a rather nice.

opps yes,, typo. now edited.

Sorry GP i think your missing my point, its nothing to do with RR or size just trying define a difference between fact and speculation.

cheers
dt

 

[brys]

I think the reason for this exercise is to become aware of the ‘though/experience creates emotions’ process thus triggering certain behaviour based on our past (I feel it works the other way round too – emotion creates a thought). Thought/emotion feeds one another perpetuating the process. Unless we are able to be aware of what’s happening with us on the emotional/mental level we are not able to do anything about it.

What you should do is to "artificially replicate" or AR. This means you ought to replicate the idea of looking at something that puzzles or intrigues you but is not connected to trading. Therefore you should choose something very similar but not the same. The ideal prop for this would be a television screen, showing something not connected with trading such as a cartoon, or a documentary, or a comedy, or a discussion, anything that replicates you "puttting your attention" on what is VISUAL.. Now do the excercise as described above. In order to best summon the A1 imagine yourself looking critically at yourself looking at the screen, and observe how it makes you feel. Try to pinpoint the arrival of AF.

This exercise (I feel, please tell me otherwise) gets the whole process started. Watching TV or anything similar that is engaging certain senses. You start having opinions about what you watch. Some emotions are being stirred (you agree with it or not, etc.)
This brings the reactions of a ‘normal’ persona up to the surface. It’s based upon your past experiences and one tends to project certain outcomes into the future. This kind of approach robs you from the awareness of the NOW.

If you are able to ‘watch’ what’s going on inside you (and this is useful not only when trading) you can disregard all of the emotional chatter that goes on in your head. We can then focus on what’s unfolding in front of us, the NOW. We become free of the ‘inheritance’ of the past, which doesn’t exist and yet has such a great deal of effect on what we do NOW.
The chatter is caused by the normal persona (this is when you become your emotions and you think you are what you think).

That’s my take on it.

 

[Windlesham1]

I just took a week off from trading-and missed maybe £2,500 of easy trades.I had a lousy July,and sat on a losing trade-THAT was far more influential than any emotion,because I wasn't trading from a clean sheet. I now have a hedged futures position,and a big fat profit options trade to close on Monday. I LOVE the game,and money collecting is just,well,money collecting- We live well on my trading,but that's not why I do it. I think I am comfortable with my trading persona,but never stop learning.

 

[jimbo57]

I just took a week off from trading-and missed maybe £2,500 of easy trades.I had a lousy July,and sat on a losing trade-THAT was far more influential than any emotion,because I wasn't trading from a clean sheet. I now have a hedged futures position,and a big fat profit options trade to close on Monday. I LOVE the game,and money collecting is just,well,money collecting- We live well on my trading,but that's not why I do it. I think I am comfortable with my trading persona,but never stop learning.

IMO I suspect you took a week off because you had had a lousy July, and the £2,500 of easy money you missed (there is no easy money) is exactly the same as the £2,500 of hard earned money you might have made.

I agree with Soc on some things and disagree on many, but be sure, this is not a game

Neither is it war. Let's look at Pavlov's dogs. They (the dogs) couldn't discern between the bells, they couldn't tell the difference, and thus a bell was a bell and the reaction was always the same. They were still reacting to external stimulii to which thay had become conditioned. Trading as life, comes from within, it is about developing a knowledge of yourself that goes way beyond the markets and applying this knowledge to virtually every circumstance of your life.

"LOVE" (yr caps) is close to the truth, but it is all about love (not yr caps), and that can only truly be experienced via a process that leads to learning to know what love is, and love can only truly be found through an enhanced self awareness. IMHO.

Thus it is not about the game, or money collecting even, it is about knowing yourself, and making that a positive. If you are looking for a trading edge, that will give you a greater edge over any period of time than any Stoke, Support, RSI etc

 

[trendie]

Jimbo57,

I really liked your last paragraph.

In essence, the edge we look for is not in any indicator, but within ourselves ?

WE are the edge?

 

[jimbo57]

Jimbo57,

I really liked your last paragraph.

In essence, the edge we look for is not in any indicator, but within ourselves ?

WE are the edge?

Zactly!!

 

[SOCRATES]

Hmmm
You KNEW he was not going to put it away? then why did you only return 600 pesos?

If you don't mind China I will answer this for you and then if you disagree then say so.

What China White was able to percieve went beyond football.
What he perceived, and he was able to perceive this subconsciously,
was the condition of risk, and not the risk itself.

This risk was not to do with whether the goal would be scored or not. in this case,
the scoring of the goal is the effect. China was looking to the cause.

The cause is that normally the player woul play in the persona of a footballer.
As a consequence of being under pressure, the player reverted to his HP for
comfort, at the wrong moment. This caused him to miss.

We now see how it is not safe to engage an action in a theatre for which we are not prepared. In the case of this player, reverting to his HP, even fleetingly, was enough for
him to lose his edge, with disastrous results.

Incidentally, I might add, this is what the markets attempt to do to us all the time., and in large measure succeed, with the unwary, the overconfident,the obstinate, the unprepared, the opinionated, the unaware,the impatient, the greedy, and the untrained, for starters.

 

[SOCRATES]

The conflict

I think the reason for this exercise is to become aware of the ‘though/experience creates emotions’ process thus triggering certain behaviour based on our past (I feel it works the other way round too – emotion creates a thought). Thought/emotion feeds one another perpetuating the process. Unless we are able to be aware of what’s happening with us on the emotional/mental level we are not able to do anything about it.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is absolutely correct, but because it is an abstract concept it is difficult to pin down as a realisation.
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This exercise (I feel, please tell me otherwise) gets the whole process started.

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Yes but it has to be done correctly otherwise it is messed up.
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Watching TV or anything similar that is engaging certain senses. You start having opinions about what you watch. Some emotions are being stirred (you agree with it or not, etc.)
This brings the reactions of a ‘normal’ persona up to the surface.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is correct, so far, so good.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

It’s based upon your past experiences and one tends to project certain outcomes into the future. This kind of approach robs you from the awareness of the NOW.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
No, this is one step too far in the sequence.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


If you are able to ‘watch’ what’s going on inside you (and this is useful not only when trading) you can disregard all of the emotional chatter that goes on in your head.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
No, the emotional chatter goes on inside your head because you are still viewing all this through the ordinary persona which is the Human Persoan that is the HP, that is "marginally" under control. But when an emotion arises the ordinary persona via the HP can no longer cope because it is not built for this purpose. The emotion also has grave side effects. These grave side effects are "amazingly" defended by the HP, even when wrong, until the condition clears.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

We can then focus on what’s unfolding in front of us, the NOW. We become free of the ‘inheritance’ of the past, which doesn’t exist and yet has such a great deal of effect on what we do NOW.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is done by the trading persona, the TP. But its presence must be stable and not intermittent.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
The chatter is caused by the normal persona (this is when you become your emotions and you think you are what you think).


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
.................................The HP kicking in again.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


That’s my take on it.

And those are the difficulties.

 

[AlexAndrews]

Finally I am able to contribute to the discussion!

Hi socrates et al.

I'm very late to this party (and Trade2Win, in fact), but I have spent the last few days heroically reading all 54 pages of this epic thread, and then re-reading in order to organize and take notes of the salient posts, so I finally feel that I am in a position to join you all.

I am not a veteran trader, but I am experienced and I do believe I have already gone some way towards developing a trading persona as has been discussed (on reflection, I think I acutally develop different personas for different environments naturally, which I find a little worrying). My problem seems to be one of discipline, ie having the discipline to switch to my trading persona. When I do, I have predominantly been very successful (I think a recent illustration can be seen on the SB on Stock Indices thread here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=120738&postcount=19). Recently I have become quite frustrated with the markets, and I think this is because I have not been switching to my TP. If nothing else, reading this thread has helped me re-focus my trading and perform some extremely useful introspection - even to the extent that over the last couple of days I had the discipline to exit some positions which I should have exited a long time ago.

Although I have read other people's interpretations and Socrates' own explanations of the various animal allegories that he has posted, I would like to post my own interpretations to find out whether or not I am on the right track. I will try and post my own initial thoughts free from contamination of what I have read.

Lesson #1 - The Twig Bird
I see this as a parallel to the testing of support/resistance. Each time a hole is plugged, this is similar to a support/resistance level being confirmed, and the worm wriggling away is similar to the price reaction off this level-test. Eventually, all of the holes are plugged - all of the bulls (bears) at the support (resistance) level have closed their positions - and the price breaks out: the worm comes out of the hole. The log having a number of holes is similar to an instrument having a number of support/resistance levels.

Lesson #2 - The Court of The King and Queen of Hearts
I see this as an allegory of the market in its entirety. Like the boy in The Emperor's New Clothes, Alice identifies the irrationality of the environment but does not embrace it or immerse herself in it, retaining her perspective on reality instead. I see the Queen as the market analysts and the other cards as most of the market participants - they obey the Queen without questioning regardless of how ridiculous her command. However, notice that the soldiers rush to do the Queen's bidding but are apt to change their focus, regardless of whether or not the Queen's command has been completed, to attend to the Queen when she moves off - sector rotation or changing to the next hot theme being promoted. The Duchess is under sentence of execution for boxing the Queen's ears - a market commentator who is not "with the programme" is openly disparaged even when talking rationally (eg. Warren Buffet in the dot-com boom). When Alice attempts to play the absurd version of croquet at the Queen's behest, she realizes just how irrational the whole environment is - she finds the game impossible to play using the Queen's rules and the scene descends into chaos with the Queen ordering almost continuous beheadings - similar to what happens in the bear market following an irrational market top. Alice's final remark regarding the fact that it is a wonder anyone is still alive can have many interpretations:

• the soldiers do not always carry out the Queen's orders - at the end of the day, they still have their own personal agendas
• the Queen can give too many orders for the soldiers to carry out - having too many stocks in your portfolio
• those beheaded are replaced - newcomers continually entering markets

Lesson #3 - The Gryphon and The Mock Turtle
I see this as a lesson in not putting your confidence in people who appear, or are self-deluded enough to believe themselves, to possess a superior education and skill-set. It becomes clear very quickly that the Gryphon's and the Mock Turtle's skill-set are to all intents and purposes without value. Alice risks exposing the Gryphon's and the Mock Turtle's failings when she asks a very simple question about what happened on the twelfth day; rather than answer the question and expose the extent of their superficiality, they quickly divert Alice's attention by changing the subject to the matter of The Games. Again, we see Alice's strenth of character whereby she retains her calm rationality.

Lesson #4 - The Rampaging Rhino
I see this as an allegory of a bear market or a sharp and dramatic correction. The rhino is the market or the instrument that is falling precipitously, causing chaos and damage to everything in its path. The farmer represents the market participants who have no experience of such activity, and panics. He seeks the help of someone who does have a wealth of relevant experience and is completely stunned by the methods employed to control the seemingly incontrollable. A direct parallel could be the voices of doom and gloom who, during a sharp correction, prophesy financial armageddon.

Lesson #5 - The Crow and The Gannet
I see this as an allegory for a private investor (the crow) being intimidated into closing a large, winning position (dropping the toast) because he fears making a loss (recognizing the precariousness of his position on the chimney) as a result of the potential action of a bigger player in the market (the gannet); ie, this is all about mis-placed self-doubt. The crow can see that the gannet wants the toast, but instead of holding his ground, he makes a rash decision (eg. sells in the hope of buying back cheaper). The gannet does not actually make any direct action, but his patience is rewarded. The crow, on realizing that he has lost a great prize, is paralyzed by his embarassment, and so loses his prize in its entirety; if he had chased after the gannet (re-opened a position), he might have profited from a piece of the toast breaking off. A direct parallel could be a large shareholder selling down part of his stake, prompting others to sell theirs, only then to buy back the same stake - or even more - at a lower price. The converse could also be the case.

Lesson #6 - The Sultan's Carpet
I see this as disruption due to gossip and rumour or a sudden unexpected event. The porters, like the Queen of Hearts, represent the analysts, only this time they are guiding the market participants rationally. But suddenly a rumour springs up or an unexpected (and probably unconnected) event occurs (Socrates starts braying) which one by one the market participants cling to and pass on, which causes the donkeys to ignore the porters' instructions. The result is a sharp price change for no rational reason, and the irrational price change remains as long as the market participants are obsessed about the issue.

Lesson #7 - Mysteriously Appearing and Disappearing Objects
I see quite a few allegories within this story. First, Socrates' girlfriend spotted the phenomenon, but Socrates himself could not initially see it, which I think has a fairly straightforward correspondence with the market or specific shares (one person being able to see something that another can't). Secondly, what exactly the phenomenon was could not be discerned without closer inspection and the use of stealth - I saw this as a need to change time-frames when looking at charts and to read between the lines. Thirdly, the phenomenon turned out to be a very natural event given the enironment, but was one the observers had themselves never come across. In totality, this story could be an allegory for someone quietly building a position (large-ish trades going through every now and then), but, when another trader spots this and does the same (starts putting in large trades), the first trader stops until the attention has died down; the second trader needs to avoid drawing attention to the fact that he has spotted the first trader by putting in smaller trades.

Socrates, I would, if I may, like to make a couple of requests:

1. Could you tell me if there are to be any more animal allegories? The direction of the thread recently seems to have moved towards the development of the trading persona per se, rather than the trading skills that persona needs.
2. When going through the thread, I didn't find an explanation from you for lesson #7 (The Mysteriously Appearing And Disappearing Objects) - would you mind providing one?

To conclude, I would like to thank Socrates for what he is trying to do here - I for one am most appreciative of such generosity. My apologies for the length of the post and I hope I don't come across as a dunce or a duffer as I'm genuinely excited at the prospect of being part of this thread.

Alex

 

[SOCRATES]

CONGRATULATIONS ! I am very pleased you have posted, and a very long and detailed post it is indeed.
All these animal lessons you have interpreted have multiple meanings, but whart is important is what meanings are relevant to you personally, because the object of the excercise in not the telling of colourful incidents for their own sake, but in order to help you to have realisations. You see, you may be familiar with a topic, but your familiarity is meaningless until you have put what we call "mass" upon it. To do this means to understand it completely in a way that goes beyond the intent or incidence of the story, only because it helps you to "consciously realise" and to further enrich your understanding by enhancing it with realisations. Nothing is fully understood until you have a realisation about it, this is most important.

I am going to do further commentaries but again from a different point of view once we clear the difficulties people have with understanding and accepting the limitations of the Human Persona versus the benfits of the Trading Persona, which is I promise you,is the desired ultimate state every trader should aspire to because trading is 15% technical and 85% psychological, yet the greater work is never properly done to the detriment of those who truly aspire. As this topic is so unusual there are many who consider it arcane or unnecessary, but you will see as this develops how desperately important it is.

The development of a TP is crucial and what is more the ability to hold in TP mode for as long as necessary, devoid of emotion, opinion, fatigue etc., is what I am progressing here. You see how you are able to switch on in TP mode according to your view of it but also how easy it is to slip back into the HP.
All these problems are going to be dealt with in due course, I can tell you everything in a flash, as I live it and breathe it and I developed it myself over many years at great cost and pain, but I can only go as slow as the slowest poster, so I entreat you to be patient and resolute, as I am sure you will benefit.

A great post. Thank you once again.

 

[AlexAndrews]

Thank you Socrates, I had a moment of great doubt before coming back to see if you had replied, where I thought I had probably made a grave error of judgment by posting, so I am grateful and relieved that my confidence has not been dealt a blow. I fully agree about being able to take many interpretations from all of the stories. Reading those of others, there were definitely issues identified which I would not have seen but with which I agree. I hope some of those reading mine will also have find similar resonances.

I understand what you are saying about the need for the acceptance of a Trader Persona. I think it is a similar hurdle to the acceptance of the validity of technical analysis. I myself was a complete sceptic until the dot-com crash, and my conversion was without doubt a paradigm shift for me. I have also been reflecting a little more on my "problem", and I think that the recent bull run made me complacent. As such, I have denied switching to my TP in order to address my position because that would mean facing up to a degree of pain. Ironically, if I had adopted my TP during the bull run, I would not now find myself in this position.

Looking forward to the continuation of this subject.

Alex

 

[SOCRATES]

There is such a psychological phenomenon as what we call "attachment by disablement".
In simple terms what this means is that it is very easy for the HP to adopt a posture so firmly rooted it is nearly impossible for it to be let go of. This is because subliminally, subconsciously the HP sees letting go as a threat to its duty to protect us even when and if we are wrong. Therefore what develops is what traders call a "chronic bear" or a "chronic bull". They are able to identify the condition. The cause is the HP interfering in what it should not interfere. The development of the TP stops this. The TP takes charge and remains impartial, unemotional, supercool and allows the trader to act in accordance with his reason and not his emotions whether consciously identified or not. The transition from one to the other can be painful, yes, if it is not done correctly, what we call "in structure". Any thing in the wrong sequence of development is "out of structure" and is the long and painful way round, and unnecessary, but never properly explained,anywhere and by anyone, that is why I am persisting with this thread.

 

[jimbo57]

Socrates,

A though or two late on a Sunday.

No-one can truly (absolutely) know a right way or a wrong way. We each and every one of us arrive at a destination, sometimes not our chosen destination, through a series of insights, errors, luck (!), and misfortune(!). To suggest, as I think you may, that there is a particular route to a trading nirvana, a plateau where somehow we are above the fray and know all in a wider context, where everything becomes clear, is slightly disingenious. We can only use our experience, with hindsight, to say what is right or wrong.

I think you are perhaps correct to suggest there are characteristics and behavioural displays that should be engendered and encouraged, but there is surely not one route that would take us there. The very best traders in the world, I do not count myself amongst them, I suspect have arrived at their station through various routes- do they display a certain behavioural pattern or character? - I suspect not.

For China earlier to say "He Knew" is clearly wrong. He knew only in the sense that he believed the balance of probability was skewed in his favour given his experience in the psychological aspects of the market/football and life. But he didn't "know": he made 600 pesos from what I remember of the post. To stretch the example, if I "Knew" that the FTSE (which I don't trade) would close at 4300 tomorrow close, or 4300 at noon, or even 4300 at 1 minute past the open, such would be the opportunity created by this "Knowledge" that I would be able to change the world (!).

Inner knowledge and self awareness are as you point out key, but to suggest that there is only one route to developing these, is spurious. I know people who have found these routes painlessly, there are few of them, for most (me included) it has been a struggle at the very deepest level.

I do not want to pre-empt what you are to say, but I will only add again that there are many routes forward, and we must all explore them constantly, because the second we stop we in effect begin to die.

And the "Journey from the Basement" title of this thread is very apposite. But please do not begin to tie up this thread in acronyms and MC speak , (MC=Management Consultancy!)
there is only one word that matters, and that is acceptance.

 

[SOCRATES]

Socrates,

A though or two late on a Sunday.

No-one can truly (absolutely) know a right way or a wrong way. We each and every one of us arrive at a destination, sometimes not our chosen destination, through a series of insights, errors, luck (!), and misfortune(!). To suggest, as I think you may, that there is a particular route to a trading nirvana, a plateau where somehow we are above the fray and know all in a wider context, where everything becomes clear, is slightly disingenious. We can only use our experience, with hindsight, to say what is right or wrong.

I think you are perhaps correct to suggest there are characteristics and behavioural displays that should be engendered and encouraged, but there is surely not one route that would take us there. The very best traders in the world, I do not count myself amongst them, I suspect have arrived at their station through various routes- do they display a certain behavioural pattern or character? - I suspect not.

For China earlier to say "He Knew" is clearly wrong. He knew only in the sense that he believed the balance of probability was skewed in his favour given his experience in the psychological aspects of the market/football and life. But he didn't "know": he made 600 pesos from what I remember of the post. To stretch the example, if I "Knew" that the FTSE (which I don't trade) would close at 4300 tomorrow close, or 4300 at noon, or even 4300 at 1 minute past the open, such would be the opportunity created by this "Knowledge" that I would be able to change the world (!).

Inner knowledge and self awareness are as you point out key, but to suggest that there is only one route to developing these, is spurious. I know people who have found these routes painlessly, there are few of them, for most (me included) it has been a struggle at the very deepest level.

I do not want to pre-empt what you are to say, but I will only add again that there are many routes forward, and we must all explore them constantly, because the second we stop we in effect begin to die.

And the "Journey from the Basement" title of this thread is very apposite. But please do not begin to tie up this thread in acronyms and MC speak , (MC=Management Consultancy!)
there is only one word that matters, and that is acceptance.

Yes, and if you put half a dozen top experts into a room and I am not talking about the people written about in the Market Wizards or on websites, but real killer edge traders and you give them a scenario, they will all agree on the outcome in advance. This is like a cartwheel in which each makes his way to the hub perchance via different spokes.

But what you do not realise is that the majority of aspiring traders have huge obstacles that they cannot surmount. These obstacles are a result of misapplication of persona. I promise you I have been through a lot of pain and stress and worry and work and cost and endless endeavour in order to crack this.

My route may not be the only route, but in contradistinction to others, some of who are rude and disrespectful and so on, I have paid a huge price for my achievements, that entiltle me to hold the ball of string that leads to safety through this huge minefield that many do not realise is a minefield, only because it is intangible and abstract, but nonetheless very real.

Now you show me anyone who has cracked it and is willing to be generous in this way, and I will stop posting immediately, give way to him or her, and devote and divert my efforts to selfish interest instead. Until this happens, which it never will, I continue on my course, notwithstanding lighthouses and icebergs and other hazards and nuisances.

 

[china white]

Hmmm

You KNEW he was not going to put it away? then why did you only return 600 pesos?

dt

mate because the market was THAT thin! there were no other offers, so I had to buy whatever was offered! BTW another market illustration! This is EXACTLY what market covering large price range on miniscule volume IS!

btw - i actually did even worse - out of those 600 pesos I had to get 2 "muchachos" just as p1ssed up as meself - they had only 613 between the 2 of them! :cheesy:

 

[china white]

China White said she knew he was not going to put it away. And it may have been a 'lousy' 600 pesos, but in terms of risk-reward it was a rather nice.

GP I am afraid to say I am not SHE...... Nor am I a variation of SHE - just joking - no pun intended sorry to dissapoint......

 

[china white]

What China White was able to percieve went beyond football.
What he perceived, and he was able to perceive this subconsciously,
was the condition of risk, and not the risk itself.

This risk was not to do with whether the goal would be scored or not. in this case,
the scoring of the goal is the effect. China was looking to the cause.

The cause is that normally the player woul play in the persona of a footballer.
As a consequence of being under pressure, the player reverted to his HP for
comfort, at the wrong moment. This caused him to miss.

.

This is the bloody best wording of what I feel all the time but cannot express in words...... I am gobsmacked here..... WHO R U SOCRATES? R u Eva Peron? She had that amazing way with words - gentle but to the bottom of things - addressing what everyone felt but cud not express it?????

 

[china white]

For China earlier to say "He Knew" is clearly wrong. He knew only in the sense that he believed the balance of probability was skewed in his favour given his experience in the psychological aspects of the market/football and life. But he didn't "know":.

Mate may I comment on this?

Of coz in mathematicians' sense of the word I DID NOT know, NOR cud anyone else, even the Brasilian goalie

What I am talking about here is the following. Don't u get those moments when u r late for the trading session, u log in half way still jaded after last night "activities" - and even before u analyse the situation - U JUST KNOW what the market is gonna do into the close?

Sorry, I cannot explain it better.