The FTSE Wednesday, 28th December 2005
Friday's results, 23rd December:
Open: 5597.
Close: 5595, down 1.6pts.
At 9pm on Thursday evening, I stood on the flyover at junction 19 on the M1 and watched the masses exit London. I know then that the FTSE would move very little the following day. Not that this observation did me any favours.
Range: 5588 - 5608.
Last 5 trading days: up 64pts. Slightly too heavy for the week.
On the Month: up 172pts. About right for the month.
Dow: 10,883, down 6pts.
Last 5 trading days: up 8pts.
On the month: up 77pts. Still well behind the FTSE's performance and under par for the month by 40pts.
The FTSE was closed on Tuesday but the DOW was open:
DOW: 10777, down 105pts!!! From an early high of 932, it fell and kept on falling. I went short at 789, so I'm trailing 12pts. It's rare for either Indices to drop over 100pts in the week after Christmas but when they have they've recouped the loses over the next two trading days. We'll see.
Too be honest, I didn't expect it. The question to be asked is 'what happens next?'
Last 5 trading days: down 59pts.
On the Month: down 29pts.
News items of note:
LONDON (Reuters) - 'Boxing Day served up a bonanza for retailers, as figures from two independent research firms showed on Tuesday that shopper numbers were up by almost a fifth on last year.
Figures from analysis firm SPSL showed footfall -- the number of people out on high streets and in shopping centres -- was up by 17.3 percent on Boxing Day 2004, although the shopper numbers were down slightly in the week before Christmas.' - My own survey, which entails talking to shop keepers on how its going, both the week before and Boxing day, says otherwise.
Sky Business News - 'Inflation rate slowed more than expected to its weakest rate in five months in November as petrol prices fell. Consumer prices were flat last month, said the Office for National Statistics, bringing the annual inflation rate down two-tenths of a point to 2.1%.That was its weakest level since June and 0.1% less than analysts had predicted. That still leaves it above the Bank of England's 2.0% target but is likely to encourage expectations that inflation has peaked and will not stand in the way of another interest rate cut in the New Year.
Policymakers may also take comfort from news that RPI inflation - on which many wage deals are based - fell to its weakest rate in three years just before the January pay round. The ONS said the biggest CPI (NYSE: CPY - news) downward effect came from transport as petrol prices fell this November compared with rises a year earlier. This took 0.15% off the annual rate. A drop in air fares, particularly on European routes, also had an effect. But tobacco and beer increases contributed to a small rise.' - In all, good news.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's had no clear indication. Wednesday's, as strange as it is, a rise!
Companies reporting:
No data at time of writing.
Economic Data:
No data at time of writing.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW ended the day on a severe drop and one which will undoubtedly effect the FTSE tomorrow; news is thin on the ground; there is no economic and company data available; historically the FTSE has performed well in the week preceding New Year by approx 25pts.
Early gut feeling: it's worth a small Short based on the DOW's dire performance.
Will I bet? Yup. But all my eggs are on the DOW tomorrow. Fingers crossed!
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
