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Seem to have been stuck in a choppy sideways trend within the 5750 - 5980 range over the past 3 weeks.
These would seem to be the major lines of support and resistance at the moment.
If we should convincingly break down through 5750 then we could see a return to the June lows of 5500.
These would seem to be the major lines of support and resistance at the moment.
If we should convincingly break down through 5750 then we could see a return to the June lows of 5500.
Take your pick
The Spreadbetter
By William Akerman
27 August 2006
SPREADBETTERS are beginning to stir. After more than a month of listless summer trading, this week saw the first signs of renewed interest in the markets. Betting volumes rose by almost 25% week on week, a clear signal that many traders are gearing up for a busy autumn. For the FTSE 100 index, the tussle between buyers and sellers has left no clear trend to direction. Critically, analysts expect the next 10 days’ movement in the Index to shape the trend for the next two months. An up-move from current levels would signal a renewed attempt on Spring highs at 6,137, while a break lower would trigger more nervous sellers to exit positions.
In the meantime a clear division in opinion has emerged between Technical and Fundamental traders.
Technical traders are placing more than two buys for every one sell bet, pointing out that the FTSE is resting on a major support trend at 5860.
Fundamental traders are currently far more bearish, placing more sells than buys and pointing to the US economic slowdown as a potential cause for a fall in the FTSE.
The Spreadbetter
By William Akerman
27 August 2006
SPREADBETTERS are beginning to stir. After more than a month of listless summer trading, this week saw the first signs of renewed interest in the markets. Betting volumes rose by almost 25% week on week, a clear signal that many traders are gearing up for a busy autumn. For the FTSE 100 index, the tussle between buyers and sellers has left no clear trend to direction. Critically, analysts expect the next 10 days’ movement in the Index to shape the trend for the next two months. An up-move from current levels would signal a renewed attempt on Spring highs at 6,137, while a break lower would trigger more nervous sellers to exit positions.
In the meantime a clear division in opinion has emerged between Technical and Fundamental traders.
Technical traders are placing more than two buys for every one sell bet, pointing out that the FTSE is resting on a major support trend at 5860.
Fundamental traders are currently far more bearish, placing more sells than buys and pointing to the US economic slowdown as a potential cause for a fall in the FTSE.
Why ?saj123 said:remember the 1st of the month is coming up - prepare for a "buy"!!
The FTSE, Wednesday 30th Aug 2006
Tuesday's results:
Close:5888, up 9pts [0.17%]
Range: 5878 - 5921.
Last 5 TD: down 0.45%.
OTM: -0.64%.
DOW
11073, up 17pts [0.16%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.27%.
OTM: 1.66%
S&P 500
1302.3 up 4.82pts [0.37%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.27%.
OTM: -2.01%.
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: favors the dip tomorrow. They also indicate a reversal is due but my interpretation plums for a rise either Thursday/Friday.
The PoM System: -0.5, interpretation: favors the weak possibility of a dip.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Corus
Economic Data:
09:30 UK Consumer Credit GBPbn July [the one to watch]
09:30 UK Consumer Mortgages (000's) July
11:00 UK CBI Distributive tradesm report Aug
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE is certainly dragging its feet, so are we in a period of uncertainty? I think so, and therefore I’m not expecting any major movement until Friday. Charts and PoM both favor the minor dip; CR is tame, but the ED on Consumer Credit will be the one to watch. SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 19-23pts.
Early gut feeling: a dip, but a moderate drop if the CC is overly bad.
Will I bet? I’ve been out of the market for the past three weeks so I’ll take a ring side seat and just watch and study. Notice that the FTSE is the only market of the three that is in negative territory and therefore has room to catch up, but the SP has hit a prominent 1300 position which, on first arriving, favors a retraction. If I do bet, it will be a Binary just before 09:30am, assuming the odds dramatically favor a ‘down on the hour.’
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Tuesday's results:
Close:5888, up 9pts [0.17%]
Range: 5878 - 5921.
Last 5 TD: down 0.45%.
OTM: -0.64%.
DOW
11073, up 17pts [0.16%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.27%.
OTM: 1.66%
S&P 500
1302.3 up 4.82pts [0.37%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.27%.
OTM: -2.01%.
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: favors the dip tomorrow. They also indicate a reversal is due but my interpretation plums for a rise either Thursday/Friday.
The PoM System: -0.5, interpretation: favors the weak possibility of a dip.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Corus
Economic Data:
09:30 UK Consumer Credit GBPbn July [the one to watch]
09:30 UK Consumer Mortgages (000's) July
11:00 UK CBI Distributive tradesm report Aug
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE is certainly dragging its feet, so are we in a period of uncertainty? I think so, and therefore I’m not expecting any major movement until Friday. Charts and PoM both favor the minor dip; CR is tame, but the ED on Consumer Credit will be the one to watch. SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 19-23pts.
Early gut feeling: a dip, but a moderate drop if the CC is overly bad.
Will I bet? I’ve been out of the market for the past three weeks so I’ll take a ring side seat and just watch and study. Notice that the FTSE is the only market of the three that is in negative territory and therefore has room to catch up, but the SP has hit a prominent 1300 position which, on first arriving, favors a retraction. If I do bet, it will be a Binary just before 09:30am, assuming the odds dramatically favor a ‘down on the hour.’
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
kriesau said:Why ?
As crazy as it is:
The last day of the month has an evens split [close as], whereas the first day of the month favors the rise. Over the last 22 months we have had only one southern drop, which was July.
Don't ask me why this is so, it just is.
Good trading
UK
The FTSE, Thursday 31st Aug 2006
Wednesday's results:
Close:5929, up 41pts [0.17%]
Range: 5945 - 5929.
Last 5 TD: up 0.46%.
OTM: 0.06%.
DOW
11382, up 13pts [0.11%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.75%.
OTM: 1.77%
S&P 500
Miss feed from supplier is quoting incorrect data.
News items of note:
Consumers appear to have brushed off this month’s surprise hike in interest rates with retail sales in August growing at their fastest pace in over 18 months, according to the latest survey from the CBI.
In its Quarterly Distributive Trades survey, the employers’ organisation found 33 per cent of retailers said their sales were below those of a year ago, while 45 per cent said they were higher.
The positive balance of 12 per cent is the highest since the 33 per cent recorded in December 2004 and is much stronger than forecasts.
Retailers are also optimistic about the immediate future, with a balance of 13 per cent expecting an improvement in September.
LONDON (ShareCast) - Bid talk spurred FTSE 100 in morning trading as mergers in the Italian banking sector and reports that Bank of America could be eyeing an international deal helped Barclays.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: yesterday favoured the dip, tomorrow likewise.
The PoM System: -1.40, interpretation: favours the weak possibility of a dip.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
DIAGEO
Economic Data:
07:00 UK Nationwide house prices Aug
10:30 UK Gfk consumer confidence Aug
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: Every time I say 'I'm not expecting any major movement' the market rears its pointy head just to prove me wrong, arr well! My excuse is I've been away from the market too long. Tomorrow is the last day of the month, which again, historically, does not favour a major rise; charts and PoM favour the weak dip; market news is positive; CR is tame and ED moderate; SB companies have the FTSE opening down 2-5pts.
Early gut feeling: neutral.
Will I bet? Happy to watch. All being well, will be going a Long prior to market close.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Wednesday's results:
Close:5929, up 41pts [0.17%]
Range: 5945 - 5929.
Last 5 TD: up 0.46%.
OTM: 0.06%.
DOW
11382, up 13pts [0.11%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.75%.
OTM: 1.77%
S&P 500
Miss feed from supplier is quoting incorrect data.
News items of note:
Consumers appear to have brushed off this month’s surprise hike in interest rates with retail sales in August growing at their fastest pace in over 18 months, according to the latest survey from the CBI.
In its Quarterly Distributive Trades survey, the employers’ organisation found 33 per cent of retailers said their sales were below those of a year ago, while 45 per cent said they were higher.
The positive balance of 12 per cent is the highest since the 33 per cent recorded in December 2004 and is much stronger than forecasts.
Retailers are also optimistic about the immediate future, with a balance of 13 per cent expecting an improvement in September.
LONDON (ShareCast) - Bid talk spurred FTSE 100 in morning trading as mergers in the Italian banking sector and reports that Bank of America could be eyeing an international deal helped Barclays.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: yesterday favoured the dip, tomorrow likewise.
The PoM System: -1.40, interpretation: favours the weak possibility of a dip.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
DIAGEO
Economic Data:
07:00 UK Nationwide house prices Aug
10:30 UK Gfk consumer confidence Aug
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: Every time I say 'I'm not expecting any major movement' the market rears its pointy head just to prove me wrong, arr well! My excuse is I've been away from the market too long. Tomorrow is the last day of the month, which again, historically, does not favour a major rise; charts and PoM favour the weak dip; market news is positive; CR is tame and ED moderate; SB companies have the FTSE opening down 2-5pts.
Early gut feeling: neutral.
Will I bet? Happy to watch. All being well, will be going a Long prior to market close.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
The FTSE, Friday 1st September 2006
Thursday's results:
Close:5906, down 23pts [0.39%]
Range: 5937 - 5895.
Last 5 TD: up 0.79%.
OTM: -0.33%.
DOW
11381, down 1.8pts [0.02%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.68%.
OTM: 1.76%
S&P 500
1,303.82, down 0.45pts [0.03%].
Miss quote by data supplier is limiting correct information
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: yesterday favoured the dip, tomorrow early down with a possible late rise.
The PoM System: 2.75, interpretation: favours the moderate chance of a rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
None.
Economic Data:
09:30 UK PMI manufacturing
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The US markets are stalling / pausing for breath and as such can shuffle either way depending on market sentiment, whereas the FTSE is still lagging behind and won't be out of place by rising 20-30pts early morning; charts can still see an additional early dip but favour a rise by end of play, whereas the PoM favours a rise overall; no CR and ED is tame; SP companies have pegged the FTSE opening up by 2-5pts
Historical notes: over the past 22 months we've had 21 rises on the first trading day of the month; Friday, this year, has seen 22 ups versus 10 downs; over the past 12 years, September has had 8 ups versus 4 downs on the 1st day of the month.
Early gut feeling: a rise, but not expecting much movement.
Will I bet? As per yesterdays comment, Long @ 5897 with a 23pt stop gap.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Thursday's results:
Close:5906, down 23pts [0.39%]
Range: 5937 - 5895.
Last 5 TD: up 0.79%.
OTM: -0.33%.
DOW
11381, down 1.8pts [0.02%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.68%.
OTM: 1.76%
S&P 500
1,303.82, down 0.45pts [0.03%].
Miss quote by data supplier is limiting correct information
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: yesterday favoured the dip, tomorrow early down with a possible late rise.
The PoM System: 2.75, interpretation: favours the moderate chance of a rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
None.
Economic Data:
09:30 UK PMI manufacturing
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The US markets are stalling / pausing for breath and as such can shuffle either way depending on market sentiment, whereas the FTSE is still lagging behind and won't be out of place by rising 20-30pts early morning; charts can still see an additional early dip but favour a rise by end of play, whereas the PoM favours a rise overall; no CR and ED is tame; SP companies have pegged the FTSE opening up by 2-5pts
Historical notes: over the past 22 months we've had 21 rises on the first trading day of the month; Friday, this year, has seen 22 ups versus 10 downs; over the past 12 years, September has had 8 ups versus 4 downs on the 1st day of the month.
Early gut feeling: a rise, but not expecting much movement.
Will I bet? As per yesterdays comment, Long @ 5897 with a 23pt stop gap.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Well done!
you were right - did you profit?
& does it work with other indices?
ukhero said:As crazy as it is:
The last day of the month has an evens split [close as], whereas the first day of the month favors the rise. Over the last 22 months we have had only one southern drop, which was July.
Don't ask me why this is so, it just is.
Good trading
UK
you were right - did you profit?
& does it work with other indices?
matrader said:you were right - did you profit?
& does it work with other indices?
I used to keep historical data on the CAC, DAX, and DOW but found it far too time consuming to constantly up date.
My Long is doing nicely.
UK
ukhero said:As crazy as it is:
The last day of the month has an evens split [close as], whereas the first day of the month favors the rise. Over the last 22 months we have had only one southern drop, which was July.
Don't ask me why this is so, it just is.
Good trading
UK
Hi,
I've been reading "Tools and Tactics for the Master Day Trader" by Oliver Velez and Greg Capra and they suggest that the market is more likely to rise on the first trading day of the month because, all other things being equal, buying will outweigh selling due to the influx of funds to fund managers on or around the first of the month from investors investing in managed funds by monthly direct debit. Sounds reasonable?
I'm new to the site (first post); so, apologies if this has been mentioned already.
N.
Well, here are the historical FTSE stats for September !
September 'worst month' for stock market
London traders across the country should brace themselves for a rough September, according to research by stocks and shares website ADVFN. A historical analysis of the FTSE 100, an index comprising the 100 largest companies on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), has found that, despite October’s reputation for market plunges, September is the month most prone to crashing. ADVFN’s analysis found that the FTSE 100 drops an average of 1.37% during September, making it the month that sees the worst market performance of the year. Research showed that the FTSE 100 has posted negative returns in 14 of the last 22 Septembers.
The study found that the much-maligned October has recorded an average index drop of just 0.25% over the same period, and if the effects of Black Monday in 1987, which helped account for the index plummeting 29.14% in a month, are excluded, October would see an average rise of 0.89%. “Typically, investors get spooked by the month of October, with market events such as the stock market crash of October 1929, Black Monday in 1987 and the Asian currency crisis in October 1997 burned into their consciousness,” said Clem Chambers, chief executive officer of ADVFN.
“With so much focus on October, the poor returns of September are often overlooked. However, whilst it is interesting to note the worst and best performing months of the year, it pays for investors to remember that having a diversified portfolio will help defend them from crashes and other negative market anomalies.”
June is the second-worst performer, according to ADVFN, losing an average of 0.75% each year, while December is the best month for the FTSE 100 with the index climbing an average of 2.03%.
September 'worst month' for stock market
London traders across the country should brace themselves for a rough September, according to research by stocks and shares website ADVFN. A historical analysis of the FTSE 100, an index comprising the 100 largest companies on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), has found that, despite October’s reputation for market plunges, September is the month most prone to crashing. ADVFN’s analysis found that the FTSE 100 drops an average of 1.37% during September, making it the month that sees the worst market performance of the year. Research showed that the FTSE 100 has posted negative returns in 14 of the last 22 Septembers.
The study found that the much-maligned October has recorded an average index drop of just 0.25% over the same period, and if the effects of Black Monday in 1987, which helped account for the index plummeting 29.14% in a month, are excluded, October would see an average rise of 0.89%. “Typically, investors get spooked by the month of October, with market events such as the stock market crash of October 1929, Black Monday in 1987 and the Asian currency crisis in October 1997 burned into their consciousness,” said Clem Chambers, chief executive officer of ADVFN.
“With so much focus on October, the poor returns of September are often overlooked. However, whilst it is interesting to note the worst and best performing months of the year, it pays for investors to remember that having a diversified portfolio will help defend them from crashes and other negative market anomalies.”
June is the second-worst performer, according to ADVFN, losing an average of 0.75% each year, while December is the best month for the FTSE 100 with the index climbing an average of 2.03%.
kriesau said:Well, here are the historical FTSE stats for September !
September 'worst month' for stock market
London traders across the country should brace themselves for a rough September, according to research by stocks and shares website ADVFN. A historical analysis of the FTSE 100, an index comprising the 100 largest companies on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), has found that, despite October’s reputation for market plunges, September is the month most prone to crashing. ADVFN’s analysis found that the FTSE 100 drops an average of 1.37% during September, making it the month that sees the worst market performance of the year. Research showed that the FTSE 100 has posted negative returns in 14 of the last 22 Septembers.
The study found that the much-maligned October has recorded an average index drop of just 0.25% over the same period, and if the effects of Black Monday in 1987, which helped account for the index plummeting 29.14% in a month, are excluded, October would see an average rise of 0.89%. “Typically, investors get spooked by the month of October, with market events such as the stock market crash of October 1929, Black Monday in 1987 and the Asian currency crisis in October 1997 burned into their consciousness,” said Clem Chambers, chief executive officer of ADVFN.
“With so much focus on October, the poor returns of September are often overlooked. However, whilst it is interesting to note the worst and best performing months of the year, it pays for investors to remember that having a diversified portfolio will help defend them from crashes and other negative market anomalies.”
June is the second-worst performer, according to ADVFN, losing an average of 0.75% each year, while December is the best month for the FTSE 100 with the index climbing an average of 2.03%.
If you look at the stats going back at least 10 years, then yes, September is the worst month for going Long, but then again, this makes it the best month for Shorting!
Looking at my own stats, I see that the last two years have bucked the trend: 2004 and 2005, 2.5% and 3.4% respectively. Are we seeing a change in the trend? Perhaps!
Yours,
UK
Nechro said:Hi,
I've been reading "Tools and Tactics for the Master Day Trader" by Oliver Velez and Greg Capra and they suggest that the market is more likely to rise on the first trading day of the month because, all other things being equal, buying will outweigh selling due to the influx of funds to fund managers on or around the first of the month from investors investing in managed funds by monthly direct debit. Sounds reasonable?
I'm new to the site (first post); so, apologies if this has been mentioned already.
N.
Hi Nechro and welcome to the Forum.
Always wondered what is was that seemed to push the FTSE up with common regularity on day one. The concept by Oliver Velez and Greg Capra appears quite sound, so I’ll go along with that.
Yours
UK
tpaulbeaumont
Newbie
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i have a target of 6050ish over the next week or so, then i fear it could retrench somewhat
The FTSE, Friday 1st September 2006
Friday's results:
Close:5949, up 43pts [0.73%]
Range: 5967 - 5906.
Last 5 TD: up 1.36%.
OTM: 0.73%.
DOW
11464, up 83pts [0.73%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.59%.
OTM: 0.73%
S&P 500
1311.01, up 7.19pts [0.55%].
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday’s favored up on the day; Monday’s favor the dip.
The PoM System: -1.00, interpretation: favors the weak possibility of a dip.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Hammerson.
Economic Data:
Note: US Public Holiday - Labour day
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the UK market is on its own tomorrow and historically this favors the rise; charts and PoM agree with a dip; CR is tame and no ED which in general favors a rise, in all, a pretty much mixed bag of indicators. SP companies have the FTSE opening at close to evens.
Early gut feeling: neutral
Will I bet? Thursdays Long is still running @ 5897-5946, have changed the stop gap to 12pts. I have no strong indicators for tomorrow and as such have no idea which way the FTSE will run. Best avoided and wait for a better, more clearer day. Good trading to all.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Friday's results:
Close:5949, up 43pts [0.73%]
Range: 5967 - 5906.
Last 5 TD: up 1.36%.
OTM: 0.73%.
DOW
11464, up 83pts [0.73%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.59%.
OTM: 0.73%
S&P 500
1311.01, up 7.19pts [0.55%].
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday’s favored up on the day; Monday’s favor the dip.
The PoM System: -1.00, interpretation: favors the weak possibility of a dip.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Hammerson.
Economic Data:
Note: US Public Holiday - Labour day
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the UK market is on its own tomorrow and historically this favors the rise; charts and PoM agree with a dip; CR is tame and no ED which in general favors a rise, in all, a pretty much mixed bag of indicators. SP companies have the FTSE opening at close to evens.
Early gut feeling: neutral
Will I bet? Thursdays Long is still running @ 5897-5946, have changed the stop gap to 12pts. I have no strong indicators for tomorrow and as such have no idea which way the FTSE will run. Best avoided and wait for a better, more clearer day. Good trading to all.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
tpaulbeaumont said:i have a target of 6050ish over the next week or so, then i fear it could retrench somewhat
Hi tpaulbeaumont
The 6000 mark has always been a major mile stone, and as such the closer we get the more nervous the market gets.
Your prediction of 6050 for the week before it retracts would be nice for my Long, but I have little faith we'll see beyond this until we know what the BOE has to say this coming Thursday.
Good Trading
UK
Inflationary pressures build
Sunday September 3
By Chris Flood
The Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75 per cent this week but the likelihood of a further increase this year is rising after second quarter gross domestic product data showed higher inflation and an acceleration in domestic demand growth.Inflation, measured by the GDP deflator, rose from 2.4 per cent in the first quarter to 3.4 per cent in the second quarter, compared with the same period last year.
Michael Saunders of Citigroup says consumer price inflation is set to rise to about 3 per cent during the winter, which could lead to a destabilising of households' inflation expectations and a round of higher pay claims in 2007. Mr Saunders forecasts that UK interest rates will rise to 5 per cent but says there is a growing risk that rates will rise beyond that.
The UK purchasing managers' service sector survey for August is due on Tuesday. The headline measure has declined for three months in a row to 57.9 in July but this is still consistent with robust growth in the sector. (A reading above 50 indicates expansion.) The new orders measure indicates that incoming business is still healthy. The consensus forecast is for the headline measure to fall to 57.6 in August.
The official data for UK manufacturing and industrial output are due for release on Wednesday. Hot weather in July raised electricity demand to power air conditioning. This should raise industrial output by 0.2 per cent on the month and slow the year-on-year decline from -0.7 per cent to -0.5 per cent.
John Butler, economist at HSBC, is forecasting that UK interest rates will rise to 5 per cent in November. Mr Butler also warns that 2007 will bring greater concerns about economic growth as households' finances appear increasingly vulnerable to rising unemployment and high levels of debt, while consumer spending power is being eroded by higher energy bills.
Sunday September 3
By Chris Flood
The Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75 per cent this week but the likelihood of a further increase this year is rising after second quarter gross domestic product data showed higher inflation and an acceleration in domestic demand growth.Inflation, measured by the GDP deflator, rose from 2.4 per cent in the first quarter to 3.4 per cent in the second quarter, compared with the same period last year.
Michael Saunders of Citigroup says consumer price inflation is set to rise to about 3 per cent during the winter, which could lead to a destabilising of households' inflation expectations and a round of higher pay claims in 2007. Mr Saunders forecasts that UK interest rates will rise to 5 per cent but says there is a growing risk that rates will rise beyond that.
The UK purchasing managers' service sector survey for August is due on Tuesday. The headline measure has declined for three months in a row to 57.9 in July but this is still consistent with robust growth in the sector. (A reading above 50 indicates expansion.) The new orders measure indicates that incoming business is still healthy. The consensus forecast is for the headline measure to fall to 57.6 in August.
The official data for UK manufacturing and industrial output are due for release on Wednesday. Hot weather in July raised electricity demand to power air conditioning. This should raise industrial output by 0.2 per cent on the month and slow the year-on-year decline from -0.7 per cent to -0.5 per cent.
John Butler, economist at HSBC, is forecasting that UK interest rates will rise to 5 per cent in November. Mr Butler also warns that 2007 will bring greater concerns about economic growth as households' finances appear increasingly vulnerable to rising unemployment and high levels of debt, while consumer spending power is being eroded by higher energy bills.
The PoM System
Hi UK,
Thanks. I've just started reading the thread and your daily diagnosis and I was wondering about The PoM System and how it's calculated?
Regards,
N.
ukhero said:Hi Nechro and welcome to the Forum.
Always wondered what is was that seemed to push the FTSE up with common regularity on day one. The concept by Oliver Velez and Greg Capra appears quite sound, so I’ll go along with that.
Yours
UK
Hi UK,
Thanks. I've just started reading the thread and your daily diagnosis and I was wondering about The PoM System and how it's calculated?
Regards,
N.
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