The FTSE, Wednesday 9th Aug 2006
Tuesday's results:
Close:5818, down 10pts [0.18%]
Range: 5866 - 5818.
Last 5 TD: down 1.05%.
OTM: -1.85%.
DOW
11173, down 44pts [0.41%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.43%.
OTM: -0.10%
S&P 500
1271.48, down 4.29pts [0.34%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.05%.
OTM: -0.40%.
News items of note:
WASHINGTON - The U.S Federal Reserve on Tuesday halted a more than two-year string of interest-rate rises, holding its benchmark rate steady while it gauges whether a slowing economy will keep inflation in check.
If inflation risks persist, the Fed indicated it might resume raising rates.
The central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the federal funds rate target at 5.25 percent, pausing a cycle that had taken the rate steadily higher in 17 successive hikes since mid-2004.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays showed an element of change and therefore favoured the rise. Wednesdays favour an early dip.
The PoM System: +1.25, interpretation: favours the weak rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
ITV
Economic Data:
09:30 UK Trade in goods & services June
10:30 UK Bank of England Inflation Report
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: Well, we've had the meeting, the rates remained on hold but nobody wanted to party! The upward surge with the US markets never came about, which has this marketeer somewhat bewildered. charts predict an early dip but the PoM favours the weak rise; CR and ED are tame; Oil appears to be shuffling south which will add a positive to the market; SB companies have the FTSE pegged down by a further 12pts.
Early gut feeling: Neutral.
Will I bet? Lost a whole weeks profit today by betting that the US markets would finish up, but I take it on the chin and move on. Now where did I put my Rune Stones! Tomorrow has no clear indicators for me so I'll be looking to scalp.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Tuesday's results:
Close:5818, down 10pts [0.18%]
Range: 5866 - 5818.
Last 5 TD: down 1.05%.
OTM: -1.85%.
DOW
11173, down 44pts [0.41%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.43%.
OTM: -0.10%
S&P 500
1271.48, down 4.29pts [0.34%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.05%.
OTM: -0.40%.
News items of note:
WASHINGTON - The U.S Federal Reserve on Tuesday halted a more than two-year string of interest-rate rises, holding its benchmark rate steady while it gauges whether a slowing economy will keep inflation in check.
If inflation risks persist, the Fed indicated it might resume raising rates.
The central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the federal funds rate target at 5.25 percent, pausing a cycle that had taken the rate steadily higher in 17 successive hikes since mid-2004.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays showed an element of change and therefore favoured the rise. Wednesdays favour an early dip.
The PoM System: +1.25, interpretation: favours the weak rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
ITV
Economic Data:
09:30 UK Trade in goods & services June
10:30 UK Bank of England Inflation Report
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: Well, we've had the meeting, the rates remained on hold but nobody wanted to party! The upward surge with the US markets never came about, which has this marketeer somewhat bewildered. charts predict an early dip but the PoM favours the weak rise; CR and ED are tame; Oil appears to be shuffling south which will add a positive to the market; SB companies have the FTSE pegged down by a further 12pts.
Early gut feeling: Neutral.
Will I bet? Lost a whole weeks profit today by betting that the US markets would finish up, but I take it on the chin and move on. Now where did I put my Rune Stones! Tomorrow has no clear indicators for me so I'll be looking to scalp.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
The FTSE, Thursday 10th Aug 2006
Wednesday's results:
Close:5860, up 42pts [0.72%]
Range: 5865 - 5778.
Last 5 TD: down 1.19%.
OTM: -1.12%.
DOW
11073, down 97pts [0.87%].
Last 5 TD: down 1.11%.
OTM: -0.97%
The DOW's swing of 184pts from high to low certainly puts it into the realms of a bear market, and Whether this trend continues tomorrow is difficult to say. Putting my Bull hat on, the DOW and SP certainly look a cheap buy at their present positions. Whether other investors share this view will most likely be seen tomorrow or Friday,
S&P 500
1265.94, down 5.54pts [0.44%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.99%.
OTM: -0.84%.
News items of note:
LONDON (ShareCast) - Oil prices headed higher again as the latest weekly inventories data from the US government showed crude supplies fell over a million barrels last week, more than expected.
US crude for September delivery jumped 69 cents to $77
a barrel as the Energy Information Administration reported stockpiles of crude down 1.1m barrels versus forecasts of an 800,000 barrel decline.
Gasoline inventories were 3.2m barrels lower against expectations of a 1.1m barrel fall, while distillates were 200,000 barrels lighter.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays favoured an early dip. Thursdays show a willingness to continue the days late rise.
The PoM System: -3 [-1 if the miners rise early morning], interpretation: favours the dip.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
INTL Power
Royal & Sun Alliance
Smiths
Economic Data:
None UK
13:30 US Trade Balance
13:30 US Initial jobless claims
Areas to watch: Mining sector as there is a strong chance of a rise; anything relating to Oil as the market is overly sensitive.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: what a strange day. The FTSE rises sharply, falls, then climbs back up again; the US markets rise and then end the day face down in the gutter. It's plain that the markets are unsure as to where they should go. In all they are difficult to predict. As it is, charts favour a rise, PoM system favours a medium/minor dip depending on how the miners react; CR is expected to be positive, and this may prove just enough to shuffle the market North after the Southern open; no ED but the US ED should be watched closely; SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 47pts. Ouch!!!
Early gut feeling: early fall / strong chance of a late rise.
Will I bet? Too busy at work tomorrow so its the fence for me. But if work permits and the FTSE falls early, and the odds favour it: I'll be looking at a Binary 'up on the day.'
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Wednesday's results:
Close:5860, up 42pts [0.72%]
Range: 5865 - 5778.
Last 5 TD: down 1.19%.
OTM: -1.12%.
DOW
11073, down 97pts [0.87%].
Last 5 TD: down 1.11%.
OTM: -0.97%
The DOW's swing of 184pts from high to low certainly puts it into the realms of a bear market, and Whether this trend continues tomorrow is difficult to say. Putting my Bull hat on, the DOW and SP certainly look a cheap buy at their present positions. Whether other investors share this view will most likely be seen tomorrow or Friday,
S&P 500
1265.94, down 5.54pts [0.44%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.99%.
OTM: -0.84%.
News items of note:
LONDON (ShareCast) - Oil prices headed higher again as the latest weekly inventories data from the US government showed crude supplies fell over a million barrels last week, more than expected.
US crude for September delivery jumped 69 cents to $77
a barrel as the Energy Information Administration reported stockpiles of crude down 1.1m barrels versus forecasts of an 800,000 barrel decline.
Gasoline inventories were 3.2m barrels lower against expectations of a 1.1m barrel fall, while distillates were 200,000 barrels lighter.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays favoured an early dip. Thursdays show a willingness to continue the days late rise.
The PoM System: -3 [-1 if the miners rise early morning], interpretation: favours the dip.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
INTL Power
Royal & Sun Alliance
Smiths
Economic Data:
None UK
13:30 US Trade Balance
13:30 US Initial jobless claims
Areas to watch: Mining sector as there is a strong chance of a rise; anything relating to Oil as the market is overly sensitive.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: what a strange day. The FTSE rises sharply, falls, then climbs back up again; the US markets rise and then end the day face down in the gutter. It's plain that the markets are unsure as to where they should go. In all they are difficult to predict. As it is, charts favour a rise, PoM system favours a medium/minor dip depending on how the miners react; CR is expected to be positive, and this may prove just enough to shuffle the market North after the Southern open; no ED but the US ED should be watched closely; SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 47pts. Ouch!!!
Early gut feeling: early fall / strong chance of a late rise.
Will I bet? Too busy at work tomorrow so its the fence for me. But if work permits and the FTSE falls early, and the odds favour it: I'll be looking at a Binary 'up on the day.'
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
wasp
Legendary member
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- 5,107
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FTSE falls on terror fears
By Miles Costello
Investors were today bracing themselves against heavy falls in London's leading shares after M15 raised the UK security threat level to critical in the wake of foiling a major terrorist plot to explode aircraft in flight.
The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip companies lost more than 100 points in heavy trading during the first hour a fall of 1.7 per cent. Travel, leisure and telecoms stocks bear the brunt of falls.
Sterling eased against the dollar on the foreign exchange markets from $1.9070 to $1.8983, oil fell $1 to $76.14 and gold rose from $651 to $661 a troy ounce.
It is estimated that about £27 billion was wiped off the value of the UK's leading companies.
The Financial Services Authority, the markets regulator, said that it, the Bank of England and the Treasury were "closely monitoring" the situation but declined to comment further.
The FSA, Bank and Treasury formed a tripartite group last year in the wake of the July 7 bomb attacks to explore how well-prepared the City is to tackle a major terror attack and are responsible for ensuring stable markets during a crisis.
Among airline shares, British Airways slumped nearly 6 per cent, down 23.25p at 366.75p as it cancelled all of its UK and Europe short-haul flights.
Acting on Government advice, the airline had already banned all hand luggage on planes leaving the UK amid tighter security at every British airport.
BA later recovered to trade 3 per cent lower as the FTSE began to rally.
Other airlines also suffered, with Ryanair and easyJet both falling. Ferrovial, the new owner of Heathrow and Gatwick airports operator BAA fell on the Madrid stock exchange and the main continental European exchanges were down.
David Buik at Cantor Index said today's terror alert was "the trigger, not necessarily the bullet" that prompted the heavy market falls.
Mr Buik pointed out that ahead of the market opening the futures markets were already indicating sharp falls. "The market is already lacklustre and looking very heavy at heart," he said.
He also noted that the second-quarter results season is almost over and that the economic outlook for the third and fourth quarters both in the UK and the United States "looks murky".
"Could there be a dead cat bounce - it does not look like it at the moment."
By Miles Costello
Investors were today bracing themselves against heavy falls in London's leading shares after M15 raised the UK security threat level to critical in the wake of foiling a major terrorist plot to explode aircraft in flight.
The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip companies lost more than 100 points in heavy trading during the first hour a fall of 1.7 per cent. Travel, leisure and telecoms stocks bear the brunt of falls.
Sterling eased against the dollar on the foreign exchange markets from $1.9070 to $1.8983, oil fell $1 to $76.14 and gold rose from $651 to $661 a troy ounce.
It is estimated that about £27 billion was wiped off the value of the UK's leading companies.
The Financial Services Authority, the markets regulator, said that it, the Bank of England and the Treasury were "closely monitoring" the situation but declined to comment further.
The FSA, Bank and Treasury formed a tripartite group last year in the wake of the July 7 bomb attacks to explore how well-prepared the City is to tackle a major terror attack and are responsible for ensuring stable markets during a crisis.
Among airline shares, British Airways slumped nearly 6 per cent, down 23.25p at 366.75p as it cancelled all of its UK and Europe short-haul flights.
Acting on Government advice, the airline had already banned all hand luggage on planes leaving the UK amid tighter security at every British airport.
BA later recovered to trade 3 per cent lower as the FTSE began to rally.
Other airlines also suffered, with Ryanair and easyJet both falling. Ferrovial, the new owner of Heathrow and Gatwick airports operator BAA fell on the Madrid stock exchange and the main continental European exchanges were down.
David Buik at Cantor Index said today's terror alert was "the trigger, not necessarily the bullet" that prompted the heavy market falls.
Mr Buik pointed out that ahead of the market opening the futures markets were already indicating sharp falls. "The market is already lacklustre and looking very heavy at heart," he said.
He also noted that the second-quarter results season is almost over and that the economic outlook for the third and fourth quarters both in the UK and the United States "looks murky".
"Could there be a dead cat bounce - it does not look like it at the moment."
Sorry guys & girls,
No Internet connection and none for the foreseeable future. So unable to pen any comments [this is from work].
Darling girlfriend took it upon herself to cancel the subscription in favor of another more enlightening broadband offer.
“But there’s lots more cheaper out there with more band thingamajig, and we get free phone calls,” says she.
Don’t yer just luv women!
Hopefully I’ll be up and running at the tail end of next week.
Yours
UK
No Internet connection and none for the foreseeable future. So unable to pen any comments [this is from work].
Darling girlfriend took it upon herself to cancel the subscription in favor of another more enlightening broadband offer.
“But there’s lots more cheaper out there with more band thingamajig, and we get free phone calls,” says she.
Don’t yer just luv women!
Hopefully I’ll be up and running at the tail end of next week.
Yours
UK
Principally two methods:
I utilize Capital Spreads charts: Parabolic Sar, Bollinger Bands, MAC and Williams % to name a few.
Also my own Excel Spread Sheet. This, as mentioned, has the hourly results going back to May of this year and has been the greatest of help in predicting the FTSE’s direction.
In all, charts and raw data supplement each other quite well, although from time to time their has been a small element of confliction, but this I’ve put down to my own misinterpretation.
UK
I utilize Capital Spreads charts: Parabolic Sar, Bollinger Bands, MAC and Williams % to name a few.
Also my own Excel Spread Sheet. This, as mentioned, has the hourly results going back to May of this year and has been the greatest of help in predicting the FTSE’s direction.
In all, charts and raw data supplement each other quite well, although from time to time their has been a small element of confliction, but this I’ve put down to my own misinterpretation.
UK
Interesting view - don't know whether I concur with the conclusion that this makes it a Buy at this moment in time.
Long term probably but we could see a retracement due to volatility in the shorter term !
This Market Is A Buy
By Maynard Paton
August 14, 2006
Here are three reasons why I think this market is a buy:
1) Low P/E: At 5,820, the FTSE 100 is valued at just 12 times earnings. Prior to recent weeks, the last time the market traded at such a low multiple occurred during 1990! Indeed, base rates and gilt yields were about 10% back then. But with base rates and gilt yields now below 5%, I feel today's earnings yield (i.e. the inverse of the P/E) of 8.3% looks much more attractive. In fact, I reckon the current relationship between the market's P/E and gilt yields is the most attractive for share buyers for at least twenty years!
2) Growing earnings and dividends: It's not as if Britain's biggest businesses are struggling either. FTSE statistics suggests blue chips have on aggregate improved their earnings by a whopping 33% during the past twelve months: Though buoyant commodity prices have no doubt helped profits at heavyweights such as BP (LSE: BP.), Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDBS) and Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO), a 10% overall dividend improvement suggests underlying blue-chip progress remains healthy. Supporting the optimism, only one FTSE 100 interim dividend declared since the end of June -- that of Lloyds TSB (LSE: LLOY) -- was held. All the others were raised!
3) Booming buybacks: Blue-chip companies continue to generate excess cash over and above their dividend requirements and buy back their shares in grand fashion. After reading 41 blue-chip interim results published during July and August, I reckon buybacks totalled approximately £11b in the first half of 2006. As well as the major oil and mining groups, notable buybacks also occurred at AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN), GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) and HBOS (LSE: HBOS). Full-year repurchases totalling something like £22b imply a 'buyback yield' of 1.5% -- and a significant 4.7% 'excess cash yield' when added to the market's current 3.2% dividend yield.
Long term probably but we could see a retracement due to volatility in the shorter term !
This Market Is A Buy
By Maynard Paton
August 14, 2006
Here are three reasons why I think this market is a buy:
1) Low P/E: At 5,820, the FTSE 100 is valued at just 12 times earnings. Prior to recent weeks, the last time the market traded at such a low multiple occurred during 1990! Indeed, base rates and gilt yields were about 10% back then. But with base rates and gilt yields now below 5%, I feel today's earnings yield (i.e. the inverse of the P/E) of 8.3% looks much more attractive. In fact, I reckon the current relationship between the market's P/E and gilt yields is the most attractive for share buyers for at least twenty years!
2) Growing earnings and dividends: It's not as if Britain's biggest businesses are struggling either. FTSE statistics suggests blue chips have on aggregate improved their earnings by a whopping 33% during the past twelve months: Though buoyant commodity prices have no doubt helped profits at heavyweights such as BP (LSE: BP.), Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDBS) and Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO), a 10% overall dividend improvement suggests underlying blue-chip progress remains healthy. Supporting the optimism, only one FTSE 100 interim dividend declared since the end of June -- that of Lloyds TSB (LSE: LLOY) -- was held. All the others were raised!
3) Booming buybacks: Blue-chip companies continue to generate excess cash over and above their dividend requirements and buy back their shares in grand fashion. After reading 41 blue-chip interim results published during July and August, I reckon buybacks totalled approximately £11b in the first half of 2006. As well as the major oil and mining groups, notable buybacks also occurred at AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN), GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) and HBOS (LSE: HBOS). Full-year repurchases totalling something like £22b imply a 'buyback yield' of 1.5% -- and a significant 4.7% 'excess cash yield' when added to the market's current 3.2% dividend yield.
SirFrancis
Active member
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Come back UK Hero!
Come back UK Hero, all is forgiven!!
Come back UK Hero, all is forgiven!!
bearfaced said:
I play these things all the time. Best to choose your moment rather than trade all the time. They are great fun when mixed into a full binary portfolio but in themselves they can be hard to make money. I tend to go through periods of profitability on them, then loses. Best to choose periods where trends are well established (for instance what we;ve just had over the 8-9am this morning - where I've made on both the hourly +/- (bought at 65) and the hourly >+5 (bought at 54).
For comparison I did a total of 24 binary bets yesterday, of these 13 were profitable and I made 17% on my lodged monies. Of those trades9 were on hourlies and 7 were profitable.
rgds
