The FTSE 2006

There's one thing I don't do- because I can't. Predict more than than the trade I have open. Even then I've been wrong more often than not, which is why I am back to shares-

Split
 
That late Dow spike up has pee'ed on my strawberries somewhat (though it was heartening to see that it's ludicrous spike up failed to hold & faded away to close -ve)...the spread betters presently have the FTSE up about 20 points from where it closed today...that looks a tad generous to me, bearing in mind the relative late weakness of the Dow into close.

I expect nervous skittish trading tomorrow, with just a few points to the upside to be had...but I'm banking on downward pressure late morning *if* the Dow futs don't play 'cavalary' over lunchtime....& I for one have money on it heading below 6,000 in the next few trading sessions!
 
Last edited:
Splitlink said:
There's one thing I don't do- because I can't. Predict more than than the trade I have open. Even then I've been wrong more often than not, which is why I am back to shares-

Split

Just a thought here, Splitlink

I've found, for what its worth, it's best to pick your days rather then trying to trade every single day.

Good hunting.

P.s If yer have any good hot share tips let me know.


UK
 
The FTSE, Friday 1st December 2006

Thursday’s results:
Close: 6048, down 36pts [0.59%]
Range: 6108 - 6043.

Last 5 TD: down 1.49%
OTM: down 1.29%.


DOW
12221, down 4pts [0.04%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.84%.
OTM: up 1.19%

S&P 500
1499.63, up 1.15pts [0.08%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.37%.
OTM: up 1.66%

News items of note:

Telegraph - House prices in Britain jumped 1.4pc this month, taking the annual increase up to 9.6pc, its highest since February last year, according to the Nationwide Building Society.

FT.com - Europe ends negative as US data disappoints
European equities reversed early gains to end lower yesterday as a combination of weaker-than-expected US data and the strong euro rattled investors.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday’s still supported weak rise versus strong falls but saw a rise for the day. Thursday’s 1-3 were unchanged [weak rise versus strong fall], but Intraday was unclear. Friday’s remain the same, although the Intraday appears to favour a strong early rise.

The PoM System, AM: +2.25, interpretation: a moderate chance of the FTSE ending the day up.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
None.
Thought

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: The ED results played havoc with the markets today, thankfully there’s none for tomorrow.

Charts still favour the long-term fall versus a weak rise, but favour the rise tomorrow and the PoM agrees; no CR or ED to rattle the market; business news appears mixed.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up 16pts.

For the week: ending close to evens.

Data: the 1st of the month strongly favours the rise by 90%

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? Holding Wednesdays FTSE Long. Will be considering a Binary to offset any southern move.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK
 
ukhero said:
Just a thought here, Splitlink

I've found, for what its worth, it's best to pick your days rather then trying to trade every single day.

Good hunting.

P.s If yer have any good hot share tips let me know.


UK

What day is that, UK? I'll give you a good tip for the index. The day I trade, stay out! :)

Actually, it wasn't quite as bad as that. I had good days and they almost, but not quite, compensated for my losses.

Split
 
hobby said:
I expect nervous skittish trading tomorrow, with just a few points to the upside to be had...but I'm banking on downward pressure late morning *if* the Dow futs don't play 'cavalary' over lunchtime....& I for one have money on it heading below 6,000 in the next few trading sessions!

More or less going to plan (a few more points to the upside than I was expecting...about 15 extra from the 20 points the Spread Betters had factored in at the time)...Dow futs off highs (my main worry wrt FTSE strength into lunchtime), $ still weak as p1ss (only a matter of time before this becomes BIG news wrt impact on FTSE dollar earners)..DAX tumbling...oil futs -ve ....I expect FTSE to be heading down from here.
 
hobby said:
More or less going to plan (a few more points to the upside than I was expecting...about 15 extra from the 20 points the Spread Betters had factored in at the time)...Dow futs off highs (my main worry wrt FTSE strength into lunchtime), $ still weak as p1ss (only a matter of time before this becomes BIG news wrt impact on FTSE dollar earners)..DAX tumbling...oil futs -ve ....I expect FTSE to be heading down from here.
It turned and shot back up 25pts and has now turned down again.
Very volatile today - US markets will almost certainly be the catalyst for direction !
 
kriesau said:
It turned and shot back up 25pts and has now turned down again.
Very volatile today - US markets will almost certainly be the catalyst for direction !

Yep...as feared, the cavalary turned up over lunch (in the shape of darned US futs which ramped up again after that initial fall on the FTSE - that said, the US futs are back down again).

The FTSE is really difficult to call now (& a bit worrying that it's hung about in the +20 to +25 level even in the face of the US futs fall)...my money is still on the FTSE ending up negative, but it's going to be a bumpy ride & more or less now over to the US mkts to decide it's fate (& the US mkt are going to be choppy for the next couple of hours!).

I guess the ISM Mfg figs due at 3.00pm will dictate the trend through until the FTSE's close.
 
Well, in the end - it was all down to the ISM - not sure why it's took the market by surprise given yesterday's NAPM figs! Looks like a mini tank on the Dow & as I type, & we're only 9 points away from the FTSE being below 6,000 again!

A good day.
 
hobby said:
Well, in the end - it was all down to the ISM - not sure why it's took the market by surprise given yesterday's NAPM figs! Looks like a mini tank on the Dow & as I type, & we're only 9 points away from the FTSE being below 6,000 again!

A good day.

The $ is taking the FTSE down.

$ fall equivalent to reduce profitability of UK comps.

I'd keep an eye on the $ and international banks for direction.

However, what is suprising to me is given all the bad news, the US SPX & DOW are still showing resillience. Inflationary pressures in the US + reduction of interest rates will see £1=$2+ and FTSE melt down.
:eek:
 
PHP:
I'd keep an eye on the $ and international banks for direction.

Well spotted Atilla - I mentioned this to another trader earlier this week....... when I saw financials like Hsbc ........ steadily slip sliding away........and doing so before the snap in Hong Kong this week!!!

Slightly off topic - the prospective yield for Hsbc is now on the way towards 4.5% despite the currency effect so this slide towards 900p and perhaps below is very juicy - by my reckoning if it gets near 890/880 it would be near 5% yield ............ all things being equal. ;)
 
Hook Shot said:
PHP:
I'd keep an eye on the $ and international banks for direction.

Well spotted Atilla - I mentioned this to another trader earlier this week....... when I saw financials like Hsbc ........ steadily slip sliding away........and doing so before the snap in Hong Kong this week!!!

Slightly off topic - the prospective yield for Hsbc is now on the way towards 4.5% despite the currency effect so this slide towards 900p and perhaps below is very juicy - by my reckoning if it gets near 890/880 it would be near 5% yield ............ all things being equal. ;)

High HS. There are lots of articles appearing on the $ & the FTSE now. Reuters and the Investors Chronicle raise it. The IC also mention to watch the Oil, Pharmaceuticals and Aerospace & Defence industries. Basically, avoid any business that earns Dollars.

Also the IC rightfuly in my view, suggests buying general retailers, travel & leisure and leisure goods, all of which have negative relationships with the US currency?

I think two big questions are
1. will the international banks support the dollar or not? (Watch gold price for direction)

2. will the fed raise interest rates - watch what uncle Bernanke says and more importantly what he does. (It's one think talking hawkish and another acting. Results yesterday with a fall in the manufacturing industry output doesn't bode well. Did someone mention Stagflation?)

I will be putting the Banks under my radar. TSB & HSBC in particular

Ofcourse, there is the possibility;
1. International banks and governments start supporting the dollar or
2. the fed raises interest rates.

Then that'll be really interesting. Not sure if the net effect will be a boost to the FTSE or a body blow taking it down. :(

Finally, retail sales are being predicted to be below 2004 levels. Quiet Xmas expectations have started to set in already... :(

What next?
 
The FTSE, Monday 4th December 2006

Friday’s results:
Close: 6021, down 27pts [0.45%]
Range: 6087 - 5985.

Ouch! A swing of nearly 100pts!!!

Last 5 TD: down 1.65%
OTM: down 0.45%.


DOW
12194, down 27pts [0.23%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.69%.
OTM: down 0.23%

S&P 500
1396.71, down 3.92pts [0.28%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.29%.
OTM: down 0.28%

News items of note:
Worth a read: OPEC divided on need for deeper output curbs

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061202/bs_nm/oil_opec_dc_5

FT.com – ‘London falls after US data sends dollar lower still
London’s FTSE 100 fell half-a-per cent after weaker-than-expected US manufacturing data pushed the dollar to a fresh 14-year low against the pound.’


Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday’s 1-3 day were unchanged [weak rise versus strong fall] and the Intraday favoured a strong early rise. Monday’s 1-3 are still in a downtrend and the Intraday is unclear.

The PoM System: +0.75, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE rising.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
CORUS GROUP

Economic Data:
None.

Areas to watch: Oil.

The FTSE Friday and Monday based on present news and data: Friday was another day when the FTSE rose only to be pulled back when the US markets headed south. Monday isn’t looking Bullish at the moment.

Charts see little change, PoM still favours another weak early morning rise but has no call for the PM. CR is moderate and no ED; business news is mixed; Oil related companies may kick off there shoes and run tomorrow but it may not be enough to stem the long term slippage south.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up 4pts.

For the week: ending up.

Early gut feeling: a rise by end of play.

Will I bet? Still holding Wednesdays FTSE Long [@ 6032]. Offset part of the loss with a Binary on Friday. Shell and BP are looking a touch interesting – may go Long.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK
 
[Q. Shell and BP are looking a touch interesting – may go Long.

Hi UK

Agree with you re the big oilers, RDSB is my favourite though just look at the chart 1750 to 1950 pretty regularly for the last 18 months or so. BP is a bit more out of favour imho.

Im waiting for a few days to see how things pan out but nice to see its on someone elses radar as well.

Keep up the good work on the thread.
 
SAHD72 said:
[Q. Shell and BP are looking a touch interesting – may go Long.

Hi UK

Agree with you re the big oilers, RDSB is my favourite though just look at the chart 1750 to 1950 pretty regularly for the last 18 months or so. BP is a bit more out of favour imho.

Im waiting for a few days to see how things pan out but nice to see its on someone elses radar as well.

Keep up the good work on the thread.

Read your comments earlier in the day. I agree, ther're still a little jumpy. Best wait.

UK
 
PHP:
I think two big questions are
1. will the international banks support the dollar or not? (Watch gold price for direction)

2. will the fed raise interest rates - watch what uncle Bernanke says and more importantly what he does. (It's one think talking hawkish and another acting. Results yesterday with a fall in the manufacturing industry output doesn't bode well. Did someone mention Stagflation?)

I will be putting the Banks under my radar. TSB & HSBC in particular

Ofcourse, there is the possibility;
1. International banks and governments start supporting the dollar or
2. the fed raises interest rates. 

Then that'll be really interesting. Not sure if the net effect will be a boost to the FTSE or a body blow taking it down.  :(

Atilla - you've hit on some interesting points there.........and like the geek I can be... I'm tempted to find out how the Ftse heavyweights are positioned .... but this time I'll seek out some female company and be normal for once!
 
The FTSE, Tuesday 5th December 2006

Monday’s results:
Close: 6050, up 28pts [0.48%]
Range: 6087 - 5985.


Last 5 TD: up 0.01%
OTM: up 0.03%.


DOW
12283, up 89pts [0.74%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.33%.
OTM: down 0.51%

S&P 500
1409.12, up 12.41pts [0.89%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.96%.
OTM: up 0.61%

Notes: The FTSE seems to be falling increasingly behind its American cousins in regards to ‘Year2Date’ and may be regarded by some to be a good bargain, don’t be fooled. The Market is where it should be at this moment in time and no more.

FTSE 8.09%
DOW 14.11%
S&P 12.61%

News items of note:

Worth a read: Oil prices fall despite OPEC worries.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061204/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_13


Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday’s 1-3 were still in a downtrend and the Intraday was unclear. Tuesday’s show we are bouncing on a ‘bottom’ and as such can swing either way.

The PoM System, AM: +1.75, interpretation: a slim chance of the FTSE rising.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
BA – Traffic
HSBC [BMO]
Tesco
UU

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PMI services
11:00 UK BRC sales monitor
13:30 US Non-farm productivity [the one to watch]
15:00 US Factory orders Oct [this one also]
15:00 US ISM non-manufacturing

Areas to watch: Oil and the banking sector.

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: Historically December is generally regarded as a positive month rising 10 of the past 12 years for an average of 1.65%. So how will the rest of the month pan out? My own data says nothing spectacular will develop until after the BOE this week. Best wait.


Charts display a bottom but have no indication for tomorrow, The PoM indicates a rise for the AM but is unsure weather this will carry on throughout the day; CR is expected to be overly positive which will spur the market upward, the UK ED is mild but the US ED is the one to watch. Business news is positive.

We could have a strong early rise tomorrow and if the US market ED data is positive – a climb of 70pts plus and a gradual rise thereafter throughout the rest of December or, an early climb followed by a heavy fall and a deliberation for the rest of the month. Darmen unt Heren, place your bets.

Of course I could be totally wrong, but I’m forever sticking my head in the noose of prediction and shouting ‘go on you mothers! Prove me wrong, I dare you!’

SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 8pts.

For the week: up.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: early rise.

Will I bet? Still holding Wednesdays FTSE Long [@ 6032], SG at 5987. May top it up depending on US ED.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK
 
ukhero said:
Read your comments earlier in the day. I agree, ther're still a little jumpy. Best wait.

UK

Hindsight is a wonderfull thing, kicking myself on RDSB, see what happens when all the excitement of a merger! dies down.

Personally think its brokers having a laugh, cant see two egos as big as BP and RDSB ever agreeing on anything.

Up 48 points as I write.
 
The FTSE, Wednesday 6th December 2006

Tuesday’s results:
Close: 6086, up 36pts [0.60%]
Range: 6097 - 6047.


Last 5 TD: up 1.00%
OTM: up 0.62%.


DOW
12331, up 47pts [0.39%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.60%.
OTM: down 0.90%

S&P 500
1414.76, up 5.64pts [0.40%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.01%.
OTM: up 1.01%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.


Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday’s indicated that we were bouncing on a ‘bottom’ and as such could swing either way. Wednesday’s have no clear indication but do slightly favour the up.

The PoM System, AM: +0.25, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE rising.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
RBOS

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Industrial production
12:30 UK Pre-Budget report

Areas to watch: same as yesterday, Oil and the banking sector.

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: Well short of my anticipated 70pts today, but a rise is a rise. Tomorrow is looking a bit more befuddled – no clear indications as to where the FTSE will head.


Charts are unclear and the PoM has a weak early morning rise; again with the CR the banking sector is in the spot light – decent results have already been anticipated and factored in to the market, ED is not expect to surprise the market – but who knows; business news is exceptionally positive.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up close to evens.

For the week: up.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: a hesitant early rise.

Will I bet? Still holding Wednesdays FTSE Long [@ 6032], SG at 6045. Don’t know where the market is headed tomorrow and if not for my present position I’d stay away from the market and choose another day.


If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK
 
The FTSE, Thursday 7th December 2006

Wednesday’s results:
Close: 6090, up 3pts [0.06%]
Range: 6105 - 6068.

Last 5 TD: up 0.10%
OTM: up 0.69%.

DOW
12309, down 22pts [0.18%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.68%.
OTM: up 0.72%

S&P 500
1412.90, down 1.86pts [0.13%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.96%.
OTM: up 0.88%

News items of note:
none at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday’s had no clear indication but slightly favoured the up. Thursday’s show that the steady downtrend is weakening in strength and purpose. It’s also unclear in regards to direction tomorrow, but, in the past, when the FTSE show’s hesitation it’s considering a strong change. This could mean a further and more determined shuffle south or a surprising reversal.

The PoM System, AM: –1.25, interpretation: a slim chance of the FTSE dipping early morning. No PM prediction.


The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
BRADFORD & BINGLEY
SEVERN TRENT

Economic Data:
12:00 UK Bank of England rate announcement Dec 5.00% 5.00%
12:45 EMU ECB Rate announcement Dec 3.25% 3.50%
13:30 US Jobless claims
20:00 US Consumer credit

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: …down on the trading room floor I asked a group of Traders about to leave how it all went today, half wondered out to hail a bus while others walked home, and some, still clutching a receipt having pawned their BM’s and Porsche’s muttered, ‘Mrs ambivalent went shopping and couldn’t decide between shoes and handbag!’

The FTSE moved through its open position no fewer then twelve times. I guess it was a difficult day to predict.

Charts are still unclear and the PoM has a weak early morning dip and no afternoon prediction; CR is not expected to change the market but the ED can shuffle it either way; business news is stale.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 6pts.

For the week: up.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: none.

Will I bet? closed all my positions for a tidy gain. Don’t know about tomorrow. Intend to scalp.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK
 
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