The FTSE 2006

[mark twain uk]

failed break-out attempt followed by a neat fall, and all in the first two hours on Monday, it may set the trend for the week. I am still short but uneasily so, it has been too bullish in the last few days/weeks, it may still go higher, the overall trend is still higher

 

[downbytheriver7]

failed break-out attempt followed by a neat fall, and all in the first two hours on Monday, it may set the trend for the week. I am still short but uneasily so, it has been too bullish in the last few days/weeks, it may still go higher, the overall trend is still higher

It has found support recently at 5950 then at 5975, so I am wondering if 6000 is going to provide some support here. Closed out my short for some gain and looking to get short again, although not sure if it will be higher or lower! Tricky to call as this week is stacked with news and events so I will be looking for a sign. MY overall bias is to be short and myabe slowly average in a position from here upwards and this week is also quarter end which coudl provide some fun and games. April historically is normally a good month.

 

[downbytheriver7]

Trying a long here @ 5960 stop 15pts

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 28th March 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 5972 down 64pts [1.06%].
Range: 6047 - 5971.

Last 5 TD: down 0.32%.
On the month: up 3.11%.

Monday's DOW:
11,250, down 29pts [0.26%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.21%.
On the month: up 2.33%.

Monday's S&P 500
1301.61, down 1.34 [ 0.10%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.26%.
On the month: up 1.64%.

News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'U.S. blue-chip stocks declined on Monday amid light volume before a Federal Reserve meeting that may give investors clues about how many more interest-rate increases are in store.

The Fed's decision and statement will be released on Tuesday about 2:15 p.m. EST.'

FT.com - 'The FTSE 100 registered its largest one-day fall in a month on Monday as traders took profits from recent gains on the stock market.

Traders said the prevailing view of investors was that the market was becoming overvalued.

"Consolidation above the 6,000 level looks to be a bridge too far for the FTSE," said William Armitage, senior quoting dealer at spread betting firm IG Index. "Even though there has been continued bid speculation and approaches, the market hasn't really wanted to push on for 10 days now."

Graham Secker, UK strategist at Morgan Stanley, said that greed had recently overtaken fear as the dominant characteristic of the stock market pyschology.

"Whether the current level of greed is back at the 2000 level remains to be seen but there can be little doubt, in our opinion, that more time is spent identifying the next takeover target as opposed to the next earnings disappointment," he said.'


Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday's indicated a potential early dip. Tuesday's indicate a further dip. - 'I don't believe them!'

The PoM System: +3.0, interpretation: a rise.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
A.G. Barr
BAA
Brixton
Compass
Dana Petroleum
Emap
Leisure and Gaming
Macfarlane
Ottakar's
UK Betting

Economic Data:
None till Wednesday.

The FTSE based on present news and data: the FTSE may open down by 2-6pts; charts say another dip which conflicts with the PoM's strong rise; the FTSE has only finished up once this year on a Tuesday [first trading day of the year]; no economic results, but I anticipate that the company results will be interesting and as such will josstle the market to a small positive degree; near the end of the month, historicaly, March has had a mixture of up down in the last week, so no difinitive guide.

Early gut feeling: a 20pt rise.

Will I bet? It's a hard call. Data says, 1 to 7 day average is down, but 10 to 20 is only just below par. I'll watch the market sentiment early morning for direction.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Trying a long here @ 5960 stop 15pts

Well closed that for a 40pt gain, FOMC meeting today so either a melt up or down coming later on. I think we sit around 6000 until the US markets react.

 

[downbytheriver7]

FYI - Saxobank AM update

[ Themes To Watch – Upcoming Session
The strength in Japan might rub off on Europe this morning, but the markets should remain fairly calm and unchanged ahead of FOMC. Tight ranges can be expected, as many chips probably already are placed before the statemenmt tonight. german IFo could have some bearing on sentiment in DAX, but the event will be overshadowed by Bernanke. Swiss life is the only major company reporting in Europe today.

The sell off in the afternoon yesterday, along with the USD strength indicates that the market was a bit too long into this evening's event. Seems like the market is positioned already for a statement on the dovish side, which suggests the risks are equal on the down- and upside. This was not what we saw yesterday morning, and we would say that the overall risk in the market has increased as a result of the positioning. We see a possibility for the FED to indicate an end to the rate hike cycle is near, but on the other hand we would not rule out another hike after tonights move to 4.75%. The important thing here is that Ben Bernanke is clear as to where we are. Another rate hike will probably be recieved fairly ok, as long as there is a clear end signalled by the FED not far from today's levels. We would prefer to be long into the rate announcement, seeing Nasdaq as the index with biggest potential. Under no circumstances would we want to leave Europe with an open position for tomorrow, as the gapping risk should be quite large. Longs can be entered a few hours before the FOMC, and stops should be held fairly tight on the downside, while we would leave the upside completely open. ]

 

[htp80]

FTSE Wednesday Morning

With 14.15 eastern time fast approaching all eyes are now turning towards Ben Bernanke. The US Markets have already priced in the expected 0.25 rate hike so providing BB doesn't deliver any other brearish news the Dow and Co could well see some decent upward momentum in the final two hours of trading. It is certainly a good time to keep an eye on how the US closes ( or even go long after 20.15) and if as expected it moves to the upside then it would be hard to resist a long position on the FTSE spreads tomorrow morning ( providing this concurs with your trading strategy).If it all goes to plan it could prove to be an interesting, enjoyable and profitable journey north tomorrow morning.....

 

[downbytheriver7]

With 14.15 eastern time fast approaching all eyes are now turning towards Ben Bernanke. The US Markets have already priced in the expected 0.25 rate hike so providing BB doesn't deliver any other brearish news the Dow and Co could well see some decent upward momentum in the final two hours of trading. It is certainly a good time to keep an eye on how the US closes ( or even go long after 20.15) and if as expected it moves to the upside then it would be hard to resist a long position on the FTSE spreads tomorrow morning ( providing this concurs with your trading strategy).If it all goes to plan it could prove to be an interesting, enjoyable and profitable journey north tomorrow morning.....

intial reaction is that the FOMC statement was a little hawkish and the markets are selling off....but then they normally do the opposite shortly afterwards....

 

[htp80]

intial reaction is that the FOMC statement was a little hawkish and the markets are selling off....but then they normally do the opposite shortly afterwards....

a little surprised by how violent the reaction has been on the Dow...after all there wasn't much in there which wasn't expected. But as you predicted it's starting to push off the lows

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 29th March 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 5935 down 36pts [0.61%].
Range: 6004 - 5929.

Last 5 TD: down 0.92%.
On the month: up 2.49%.

Tuesday's DOW:
11,154, down 95pts [0.85%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.72%.
On the month: up 1.48%.

Tuesday's S&P 500
1293.23, down 8.38 [ 0.64%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.30%.
On the month: up 1.00%.

Take note. At 8pm, UK time, both American markets where up! The FTSE is still sitting heavy for the month compared to its American counter parts. Will it last? Tomorrow and Thursday will be key days as to whether the FTSE will hold the 5900 position.

News items of note:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - 'In their first meeting under new chief Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve officials lifted a key U.S. interest rate on Tuesday a 15th straight time and said further moves may be needed to keep inflation at bay.

As widely expected, the U.S. central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the benchmark federal funds rate target a quarter percentage point to 4.75 percent, the highest level since April 2001.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's indicated a further dip [and I did'nt believe them!]. Wednesday's have no strong indication either way.

The PoM System: +1.5, interpretation: a rise.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Barratt Developments
Clarkson
J Sainsbury
Ladbrokes
Scottish Power
Tullow Oil
Woolworths

What a glorious mixture: Oil, housing, retail and dot com, to name but a few.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK GDP (Final) Q4
09:30 UK Current Account Q4
09:30 UK Consumer Credit (GBPbn) Feb
11:00 UK CBI Distributive trades report

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: Oh, for a crystal ball. With such a varity of market sensitive company results, a heavy mixture of economic data and the American markets doing a Southern line dance, what we'll have in the morning is a overly nervous and news sensitive market; the FTSE may open down between 12-18pts; charts are unclear but PoM predicts a rise.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? It's worth a medium Long.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[htp80]

FTSE Today

FTSE trying to shake off the Bernanke hangover. The sentiment isn't too bad by the looks of things and any spread betters going long at the lows of 5630 this morning could be locking in some decent points as the FTSE pushes up towards the 5960. Some morning newspapers have painted a positive glow on Bernankes future rate decisions which could be playing a part in this mornings upward moves. If your planning to open and close today unless your trading strategy tells you otherwise maybe hold off going long untill the US markets give us some more direction at 15.30 to hopefully enjoy a profitable final 60 minutes.

 

[downbytheriver7]

FTSE trying to shake off the Bernanke hangover. The sentiment isn't too bad by the looks of things and any spread betters going long at the lows of 5630 this morning could be locking in some decent points as the FTSE pushes up towards the 5960. Some morning newspapers have painted a positive glow on Bernankes future rate decisions which could be playing a part in this mornings upward moves. If your planning to open and close today unless your trading strategy tells you otherwise maybe hold off going long untill the US markets give us some more direction at 15.30 to hopefully enjoy a profitable final 60 minutes.

I kept on averaging down my long yesterday and closed it today slightly to low at 5950. I think I will wait for the US market open for my next position. Thoughts are the US markets will open. sell off / dip slightly and then head higher for the day. Looking to go long on any dip for the short term. 5980 looks like resistance on the FTSE for now and then 6000.

 

[htp80]

I closed this mornings long at 5975 and like you waiting for those US markets to open up to give it some energy to break through those two resistence levels you were talking about. My attention will turn to the Dow this afternoon as it recovers its losses and if the Dow finishes strongly I think the FTSE will be the place to be tomorrow morning.

 

[downbytheriver7]

I closed this mornings long at 5975 and like you waiting for those US markets to open up to give it some energy to break through those two resistence levels you were talking about. My attention will turn to the Dow this afternoon as it recovers its losses and if the Dow finishes strongly I think the FTSE will be the place to be tomorrow morning.

Long short term only for the FTSE, I am still expecting a more substantial correction on the FTSE soon. Whether it can manage to close and base over the 6000 level is key for me. DAX and CAC also possible shorts, the CAC more than the DAX.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 30th March 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 5959 up 23pts [0.40%].
Range: 5979 - 5927.

Note: virtually no movement whist the American markets were open. This could mean, 'this far for now, but no further.' Then again, I could be totally wrong.

Last 5 TD: down 0.80%.
On the month: up 2.89%.

Wednesday's DOW:
11.215, up 61pts [0.55%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.90%.
On the month: up 2.03%.

Wednesday's S&P 500
1302.89, up 9.66pts [ 0.75%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.16%.
On the month: up 1.75%.

As we can see, the S&P is the only market of the three that exceeded its previous days loss, and being the weaker it almost doubled its total % for the month. One view is, we may see a lot more positive action over the next three trading days as it struggles to catch up whilst the other markets hang around the shop floor eating donuts. Not expecting much movement from the FTSE until Monday.

News items of note:

LONDON (ShareCast) - Crude oil rose on Tuesday, with futures rising above $66 a barrel as ongoing concern about supplies from Nigeria fuelled much of the rise, analysts said.

Ongoing violence in the African country and ongoing repairs to a key refinery plus concern about supplies from supply disruptions in Iran and Iraq pushed oil higher.

The benchmark May contract ended up $1.99 at $66.15 a barrel.

The rise in crude futures comes despite predictions for a rise in US crude inventories in a government report due out Wednesday morning.

Gold futures fell following the Fed's rate decision and as oil prices firmed. Gold for April delivery closed down 40 cents at $567 an ounce an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Silver futures tracked gold, closing slightly lower.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's had no strong indication either way. Thursday's, again, no clear indication.

The PoM System: +4.6, interpretation: a rise.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
3I
Alphameric
Burren Energy
Colt Telecom
Jessops [I'm anticipating a poor report]
Kazakhmys
Scottish American Inv
Spring

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the S&P took its gloves off today and as such I anticipate a minor rise tomorrow; charts are unclear but the PoM predicts a strong likelyhood of a rise; no economic data and company results, in general, should be positive on the whole.

Early gut feeling: a small rise, 7-12pts.

Will I bet? Will be looking at other indices for larger gains.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 31st March 2006

Thursday's results:
Close: 6015 up 56pts [0.94%].
Range: 6036 - 5959.

Last 5 TD: up 43%.
On the month: up 3.83%.

Thursday's DOW:
11.150, down 65pts [0.58%].

Last 5 TD: down 1.06%.
On the month: up 1.45%.

Thursday's S&P 500
1300.25, down 2.64pts [ 0.20%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.10%.
On the month: up 1.54%.

Yesterday's quote: 'Not expecting much movement from the FTSE until Monday.' How wrong I was!

News items of note:

Telegraph - 'Gold touched 25-year highs yesterday on a wave of buying by funds, brushing off hawkish comments form the US Federal Reserve and renewed dollar strength.

The precious metal was up over $9.80 to $573.2 an ounce in New York trading, pushing just above key levels of technical resistance that have proved a ceiling for the last two months.'

LONDON (Reuters) - Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. dropped its 2.4 billion pound ($4.18 billion) proposed offer for the London Stock Exchange (LSE.L) on Thursday, becoming the fourth suitor in a year to abandon pursuit of Europe's biggest stock market.

But the second-biggest U.S. stock exchange operator left the door open to a tie-up in the future, saying it might make an offer under certain circumstances, such as if the London Stock Exchange (LSE) agreed to a deal, or a rival bidder emerged.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's had no clear indication. Friday's anticipate a drop.

The PoM System: -6, interpretation: a drop.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
AWG
Chesnara
Liberty Int
Melrose Resources
Thus

Economic Data:
10:30 UK Gfk Consumer confidence.
UK Nationwide House Prices.
It's a busy day for the Nikkie.

Areas to watch: Miners and the price of copper.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the American markets headed South after the FTSE closed so expect the FTSE to open up 5-12pts down; charts say a drop and likewise a strong drop from the PoM result; companies reporting and economic data are tame/moderate. Historically, over the past 24 months the FTSE has dropped 19 times on the last day of the month.

Early gut feeling: a reversal of today

Will I bet? Going a medium Short, and all being well, closing before end of play as I see the market rising come Monday.

This is not a tip: my data is screeming that Rio Tinto [RIO.L] is well over priced. I'm going a heavy Short if copper prices drop or stay neutral.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[htp80]

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the American markets headed South after the FTSE closed so expect the FTSE to open up 5-12pts down; charts say a drop and likewise a strong drop from the PoM result; companies reporting and economic data are tame/moderate. Historically, over the past 24 months the FTSE has dropped 19 times on the last day of the month.

Early gut feeling: a reversal of today

Will I bet? Going a medium Short, and all being well, closing before end of play as I see the market rising come Monday.

Yours

UK[/QUOTE]


Medium Short sounds a likely bet although we could quite easily shake of the US inflation worries and rise a little as sentiment has improved in the last hour. Staying out in early trading. Any other thoughts anyone?

 

[FetteredChinos]

morning all.. hourlies signalled a sell last night following the Dow's move..

intraday we should get a sell if we break 5990, which it looks like it is trying to do today.. could see 5920 again sharpish.

 

[htp80]

hi FC. had a few points on the way up this morning. but out now and agree that a move south is on the cards.

 

[FetteredChinos]

well done htp..

its make or break atm.. sitting at 5990.. a retrace into 5980 would trigger a larry williams smash day sell setup.. usually reliable in the short term

fc