The FTSE 2006

[Euro_d]

Morning all,
Davidwiz, the link http://sc.dainty.biz/ta/welcome.aspx does not work , nor the link from the home page!
anyway, as you said it is under development so we can excuse that. Purists will argue that to be successful one should carry our ones own analysis. I agree with that in principle but tools are always useful on the road to making the final decision. Indeed as UK always states "make you own decisions" and that is absolutely correct, IMHO!

UK what is the POM system?

Thanks for your continuing excellent posts.

Dave

 

[davidwiz]

Morning all,
Davidwiz, the link http://sc.dainty.biz/ta/welcome.aspx does not work , nor the link from the home page!

strange, it does work..... could you try again and let me know?

 

[solentsurfer]

Worked ok for me yesterday and today.

 

[Hooya]

Hello everyone,

if you are looking for daily predictions and analysis of FTSE100 for your CFDs or SpreadBets have a look at our new online service on

http://www.dainty.biz
Technical Analysis->Live Analysis

or using the direct link
http://sc.dainty.biz/ta/welcome.aspx

It is still under development, so any feedback would be appreciated.

Thanks, David

r/r ratio of 0.41 is too low imo. for every 1 loss you have to win more than 2 trades. Also it seems because so such wide stops you could have a trade that is long and a trade that is short at the same time. I believe in being either long, short or flat. Conflicting signals just confuse things. But that's partly why I don't like mechanical systems in general.

 

[Euro_d]

Yep, it works now, it must have been that they were uploading their data when I tried first thing (06-30 UK time.

Now I have to see what they are on about.

Thanks
Dave

 

[davidwiz]

r/r ratio of 0.41 is too low imo. for every 1 loss you have to win more than 2 trades. Also it seems because so such wide stops you could have a trade that is long and a trade that is short at the same time. I believe in being either long, short or flat. Conflicting signals just confuse things. But that's partly why I don't like mechanical systems in general.

Thanks, Hooya.
R/R=0.41 is obviously a concern and we are working on that, however, it is not the real risk of our trading strategy. Because we have 3 criteria for liquidating the position (DesiredProfitPerTrade, StopLoss and Max.TradePeriod) combined with the idea that only a part of the portfolio is invested on each trade - the overall risk is actually very low and the system is specifically designed to minimise it. Soon we will show the real risk indicator for our predictions.

At the end of the day, IMO, it is the overall profit with minimum risk what traders should be interested in rather than R/R ratio per se.

In terms of being either long, short or flat - it is of course a simple strategy but it does not work very well in oscilating markets such as FTSE100, especially when you trade CFDs and SpreadBets where you incur a financing charge overnight.

 

[leovirgo]

Hi UK

My indicators point to 5860. Is it agreeable to you or any counter arguments?

cheers,
LVG

It touched the said target today. :cheesy:

 

[ukhero]

The POM System

The 'POM system' or 'The P System,' stands for 'Plus or minus.'

I believe, if my memory serves me well, it was a group of economic students at a University here in the UK who devised the mathematical system to predict a markets daily direction.

It’s simple to follow. However, I've noticed that it works to its optimum during unpredictable months with plenty of variation, such as February, rather then months that are genially regarded as historically buoyant, such as the last two weeks of December [which proved dire in my back testing].

It works on the simple principle of adding or subtracting points [or parts of] based on a list of known factors. There are many factors involved, and it’s just a simple case of adding or subtracting according to the formula until you have a final figure. Simple, eh!

I found it in August last year, played with it and lost interest when the system failed to constantly predict the markets direction. In January I picked it up again, and being above average in regards to data analysis, tweaked the formula extensively. The results are encouraging.

It must be noted that I use the POM system as a tool to supplement my other data and nothing more. To use it solely as an indicator, I believe, would be foolish.

The POM system YTD is currently running at 70.5%

If you followed the POM system religiously from 3rd January, which I haven’t as it conflicted with other data, but wished I had:

35 trading days
13 abstains [as in don’t bet]

Of the remaining 22:

17 correct, 5 incorrect

Furthermore, if you also bet in line with its prediction strength:

Gain £1854
Loss £162
Net result: £1692

The figures above do not include a spread cost, also, it assumes the bet was cancelled when the market closes, as in the FTSE daily rather then the FTSE rolling daily.

Myself: I’ve only bet nine times this year on the strength of the POM system, and in each case only on a plus or minus 4.

See attached for figures YTD

UK

 

[bigcroc]

Ftse

I'm starting to get increasingly bearish on the worlds equity markets. I can't help feeling that we have seen it all before

1) IPO -- scramble for the qintiq float -- reminiscent of lastminute.com????

2) Reading in the papers today that there is a bumper ISA season going on - can't help but think that the general public like to buy at the top and sell at the bottom

Having said this although I've started getting short here I am well aware that this rally could continue quite a bit further so I need to be pragmatic -- but for the time being I'll be selling the rallies and buying the dips.

 

[hungvir]

I'm starting to get increasingly bearish on the worlds equity markets. I can't help feeling that we have seen it all before

1) IPO -- scramble for the qintiq float -- reminiscent of lastminute.com????

2) Reading in the papers today that there is a bumper ISA season going on - can't help but think that the general public like to buy at the top and sell at the bottom

Having said this although I've started getting short here I am well aware that this rally could continue quite a bit further so I need to be pragmatic -- but for the time being I'll be selling the rallies and buying the dips.

Do they say that one swallow doesn't make a spring? You need to get more than just yourself bearish for the market to go down. With people piling in as you said, I don't see why it would.

Cheers,

Hung

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 20th February 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 5846, up 17pts [0.30%].
Range: 5822 - 5863.

Highest level since June 2001.

Last 5 trading days: up 82pts [1.42%]. This is above average but not adversely so.
On the month: up 86pts [1.49%]. On par.

The DOW is closed Monday.

Friday's Dow:
11,115, - down 5pts [0.06%].

Last 5 trading days: up 200pts [1.83%]. Still a touch too heavy.
On the month: up 258pts [2.32%]. Likewise here, so Tuesday should be interesting.

News items of note:

Worth a read:
Forbes urges flat tax for Britain:
http://money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/02/19/cnforbes19.xml

Timesonline - 'RETAILERS suffered their worst drop in sales for more than a year last month despite painful price cuts, reawakening fears that the consumer slowdown may have further to run.

Official figures showed a 1.3 per cent drop in retail sales volumes in January, the worst such figure since December 2004.

The weakness in the retail sector was spread across the board, with sales of household goods suffering a particularly acute fall of 3 per cent on the month.'

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - 'Oil prices rose back near $60 Friday on talk of a push by some member states to have OPEC cut production and forecasts of more cold weather throughout the United States.

Oil, which reached a nearly two-month low Thursday before turning higher in afternoon trading, was up sharply Friday morning, heading toward $60 a barrel -- a mark it had dropped below on Tuesday for the first time in 2006.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery settled up $1.42 to $59.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's stated an early morning dip. Monday's state a drop.

The PoM System: -2. Not enough indication for me to go Short.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Second Allaince Trust

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The American markets are closed for Presidents Day so the FTSE is on its own; charts state a drop; company and economic news is tame; the FTSE is at its highest point since June 2001 so the bears may step up to the table to have a nibble; the PoM system dictates a possibility of a drop.

Areas to watch: Oil is still shuffling.

Early gut feeling: mixed.

Will I bet? I'm considering going Short.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[Euro_d]

Hi UK, thanks for your explanation of the P system.

Dave

 

[downbytheriver7]

Back from a weeks skiing and starting the week of with a short @ 5850 looking for 5820.

 

[Hoggums]

The 'POM system' or 'The P System,' stands for 'Plus or minus.'

I believe, if my memory serves me well, it was a group of economic students at a University here in the UK who devised the mathematical system to predict a markets daily direction.

It’s simple to follow. However, I've noticed that it works to its optimum during unpredictable months with plenty of variation, such as February, rather then months that are genially regarded as historically buoyant, such as the last two weeks of December [which proved dire in my back testing].

It works on the simple principle of adding or subtracting points [or parts of] based on a list of known factors. There are many factors involved, and it’s just a simple case of adding or subtracting according to the formula until you have a final figure. Simple, eh!

I found it in August last year, played with it and lost interest when the system failed to constantly predict the markets direction. In January I picked it up again, and being above average in regards to data analysis, tweaked the formula extensively. The results are encouraging.

It must be noted that I use the POM system as a tool to supplement my other data and nothing more. To use it solely as an indicator, I believe, would be foolish.

The POM system YTD is currently running at 70.5%

If you followed the POM system religiously from 3rd January, which I haven’t as it conflicted with other data, but wished I had:

35 trading days
13 abstains [as in don’t bet]

Of the remaining 22:

17 correct, 5 incorrect

Furthermore, if you also bet in line with its prediction strength:

Gain £1854
Loss £162
Net result: £1692

The figures above do not include a spread cost, also, it assumes the bet was cancelled when the market closes, as in the FTSE daily rather then the FTSE rolling daily.

Myself: I’ve only bet nine times this year on the strength of the POM system, and in each case only on a plus or minus 4.

See attached for figures YTD

UK

uk - do you have a link or info to the formula used in the POM system? It's something I'd like to look at.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 21st February 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 5863, up 16pts [0.29%].
Range: 5839 - 5866.

Last 5 trading days: up 70pts [1.20%].
On the month: up 103pts [1.78%].

The DOW was closed Monday.

Friday's Dow:
11,115, - down 5pts [0.06%].

Last 5 trading days: up 200pts [1.83%]. Still a touch too heavy.
On the month: up 258pts [2.32%]. Likewise here, so Tuesday should be interesting.

News items of note:

LONDON (Reuters) - 'Oil leapt $1.50 on Monday after rebels bombed Nigeria's oil industry and some OPEC ministers suggested the cartel may need to cut output in spring. Nigerian militants knocked out 19 percent of supplies from the world's eighth biggest oil exporter by attacking a major tanker terminal and blowing up a pipeline over the weekend. OPEC member Nigeria's biggest foreign operator Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) suspended 455,000 barrels per day of output. The rebels threatened more violence in a campaign to free two ethnic leaders and win influence over the Niger Delta's oil wealth.

With U.S. markets closed for a holiday, the focus was on London where Brent crude futures climbed $1.46 a barrel to $61.35. Traders of west African crude, which mostly sells to the United States and Asia, were trying to assess the impact but forecast the cost of Nigerian oil would rise.'


Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday's stated a drop. Tuesday's depict an early rise.

The PoM System: -3.75. Consider going short.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:

Barclays
Cadbury Schweppes
George Wimpey
Royal Blue
Schroders
Scottish and Newcastle
Thorntons

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the market moved ahead anticipating decent company results for this coming week; charts state an early rise, but I have my doubts; the PoM system favours a Short; company results overall should be mixed; a poor opening early morning with the DOW will see the FTSE drop by 20pts, a strong opening will be less so.

Areas to watch: Miners may take a dip; Oil is still shuffling.

Early gut feeling: I fancy the Short.

Will I bet? the PoM system is providing a stronger signal then yesterday, but still not a minus 4 which is what I look for. Even so, as we have seen so far this year, up Monday down Tuesday. I'm tempted.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

uk - do you have a link or info to the formula used in the POM system? It's something I'd like to look at.

I don't know of any link, as such.

The formula has been extensively altered by myself and is ongoing.

Take note that yesterday it indicated a -2, and as we know the market rose by 16pts. It's not infallible.

Tomorrow’s is a -3.75. This is close to the optimum of -4 for going Short for a higher degree of certainty, as if the market conforms or falls in line with the pencil scribblings of mathematical equations!

As I've said, it's a tool and nothing more.

As to the bones of the formula, I'm keeping that under my hat, as it were.

All the best in trading.

yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 22nd February 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 5857, down 5pts [0.09%].
Range: 5856 - 5888.

Last 5 trading days: up 65pts [1.12%].
On the month: up 97pts [1.68%].

Tuesdays DOW:
11,069, - down 46pts [0.42%].

Last 5 trading days: up 179pts [1.64%].
On the month: up 207pts [1.91%].

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's depicted an early rise. Wednesday's were difficult to read, but edge towards another dip.

The PoM System: -0.85. Recommendation is don't bet.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:

Amstrad [are these guys still trading!]
Anglo American
Easyjet
Sportingbet [looking forward to seeing these results]
Tomkins

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Bank of England Minutes Feb
11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Feb +1 +3

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The FTSE rose early today and thereafter followed the DOW to end up face down; tomorrow, I anticipate it sitting around waiting for the DOW to open; charts are not positive one way or another; the PoM system recommends that you stay out of the market; company results should prove interesting and may jostle the market.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? the PoM system is recommending that you don't bet, I'll go along with that as both markets are looking neutral at the moment and as such can go either way.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[mark twain uk]

funny to think that 8 weeks ago people were asking whether the ftse can make it to 5600 before the year end, that seemed quite an ambitious target, 250 points higher I would ask the question, did the underlying factors really change that much in 8 weeks? So the the current price is just a measure of the current sentiment, which, fickle as it is, can change quite dramatically. So, which figure will be seen first, 6000 or 5600?

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 23nd February 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 5872, up 14pts [0.25%].
Range: 5836 - 5877.

Last 5 trading days: up 81pts [1.4%]. Starting to look a tad heavy over this period.
On the month: up 112pts [1.94%]. On par.

Wednesday's DOW:
11,137, - up 68pts [0.62%].

Last 5 trading days: up 112pts [1.02%].
On the month: up 275pts [2.53%].

News items of note:

Telegraph - 'Calls for lower borrowing costs were ignored by eight members of the Bank of England earlier this month, as hopes for an early cut in interest rates receded today. Stephen Nickell was the only member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee to vote for reducing rates to 4.25pc at its monthly meeting - the third time in a row that he has been the sole dissenter.'

Also in the Telegraph - 'A national ban on smoking in public places will increase the pension deficits of the UK's largest companies by billions of pounds, according to new research.

Hewitt Associates, a human resources group, said the ban, which is expected to encourage around 600,000 of the nation's 13m smokers to quit, will substantially increase people's life expectancy and therefore their pension costs. Figures compiled by the company show an average improvement of just one year in life expectancy will increase the average deficit of the FTSE 100's pension funds by £15 billion to £20 billion.

Yahoo News - 'NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell nearly $2 on Wednesday and shed gains from a major disruption in Nigerian exports as dealers anticipated another build in already robust U.S. fuel stockpiles.

U.S. crude futures settled $1.73 lower at $61.01 a barrel after dropping as low as $60.85, while London Brent lost $1.16 to $60.44 a barrel.

The loss erased a $1.45 jump on Tuesday after a fifth of Nigerian oil output was shut in by weekend militant attacks in the world's eighth largest oil exporter.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's were difficult to read, but edged towards a dip. Thursday's, again no clear indication.

The PoM System: [+1.50] Interpretation is: a weak possibility of a rise.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:

BAE Systems
Brambles Industries
Capita
Centrica
Hanson
Hilton
Rentokil
Reuters
Shire
Spirent
Spring

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The FTSE was dragged along by the DOW late afternoon and we may see some additional effect early tomorrow morning; charts are unclear; the PoM system favours a weak rise; company results are a mixed bag.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? No. PoM and charts are not strong enough for me.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

funny to think that 8 weeks ago people were asking whether the ftse can make it to 5600 before the year end, that seemed quite an ambitious target, 250 points higher I would ask the question, did the underlying factors really change that much in 8 weeks? So the the current price is just a measure of the current sentiment, which, fickle as it is, can change quite dramatically. So, which figure will be seen first, 6000 or 5600?

I've learned to follow the market sentiment, and as a whole it favours the 6000.

I do see the market dipping, but hopefully not just yet.

UK