The FTSE 2006

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 22nd December 2006

Thursday’s results:
Close: 6183, down 14pts [0.24%]
Range: 6203 - 6171.

Last 5 TD: down 0.72%
OTM: up 2.21%.

DOW
12421 down 42pts [0.34%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.04%.
OTM: up 1.63%

S&P 500
1418.30, down 5.23pts [0.37%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.50%.
OTM: up 1.27%

News items of note:

Worth a read: US banks predict sterling set to crash

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...WAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2006/12/12/cnster12.xml

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday’s 1-3 day were unclear and the Intraday showed that Wednesday’s drop would continue. Friday’s 1-3 day are still unclear but the Intraday sees a possible rise.

The PoM System, AM: +1.25, interpretation: a slim chance of the FTSE rising.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE Thursday and Friday based on present news and data: another day another down. Data shows we can still shuffle a touch further [10-15pts] before a minor rebound. Lets see.

Charts are unclear, the PoM a slim rise; no CR or ED, and for tomorrow this would favour a rise; business news and market sentiment is quiet.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down 6pts.

For the week: slight down.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: can see a minor re-bound.

Will I bet? Nothing doing today. I sat on the fence and waved at the market as it travelled south. Tomorrow, still not sure. It’s the fence.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 27th December 2006

Friday’s results:
Close: 6190, up 7pts [0.10%]
Range: 6191 - 6175.

Last 5 TD: down 1.13%
OTM: up 2.31%.

DOW
12407 up 64pts [0.52%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.27%.
OTM: up 1.52%

S&P 500
1416.90, up 6.14pts [0.44%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.46%.
OTM: up 1.17%

News items of note:

None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday’s 1-3 day were still unclear but the Intraday saw a possible rise. Wednesday’s 1-3 day favours a move south, but the indication is weak. The Intraday [due to time of year] is not clear but favours another small rise.

The PoM System, AM: +0.25, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE rising.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
None UK
US Crude Inventories

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: whilst the FTSE sat around a table of cold mince pies and dried up turkey the US markets chomped ahead. The last week in December historically, favours a rise.


Charts continue to remain unclear but do favour a minor rise and the PoM agrees; no CR or ED but the US crude ED should be watched; market sentiment remains sedative. Too many mince pies, me-thinks.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down 16pts from last Friday’s close.

For the week: a slim rise.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: a small rise.

Will I bet? we’ve not had, what many call, a Christmas rally, and I don’t see the coming week sprouting wings and singing like an angel. In all, I anticipate the FTSE dragging its legs over the coming week and if I’m correct it will be difficult to make any decent profit. Intend to scalp.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 28th December 2006

Wednesday’s results:
Close: 6245, up 55pts [0.89%]
Range: 6248 - 6190.

Last 5 TD: down 0.04%
OTM: up 3.21%.

DOW
12510 up 102pts [0.83%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.32%.
OTM: up 2.35%

S&P 500
1426.84, up 9.94pts [0.70%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.10%.
OTM: up 1.87%

News items of note:

Worth noting: Amazon enjoys a record Christmas…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/12/27/cnamazon27.xml

I have a feeling in my 'SB Popular Shares' that comapanies that have a strong Internet presence will do well in the comming year.


Also: Telegraph - ‘Barclays said this year that it plans to generate about 50 per cent of its pre-tax profit outside the UK by 2008.’

It’s the bank to watch this coming year.

Also: FTSE 100 penion deficits fall.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/12/27/PensionsCM2712.xml

Good news indeed!

And:New homes sales unexpectedly strong in November

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061227/bs_nm/usa_economy_dc_2

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday’s 1-3 day favoured a move south [Wrong so far!], but the indication was weak, the Intraday [due to time of year] was not clear but did favoure another small rise. Thursday’s 1-3 has switched from a weak fall to a rise and the Intraday still sees a minor rise.

The PoM System, AM: +0.25, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE rising.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
Scottish Power.

Economic Data:
None UK

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: there seems to be a excessive abundance of good news doing the rounds of late. It also appears, although late, that the much-anticipated Xmas rally has finally come to the table, but as it stands today’s surge was well over done even though the US markets helped it along. So, it seems there’s still some steam left in the FTSE and I can see that we could tip the 6300 mark by Friday’s end if the festive buying spirit continues.

Charts have switched, for tomorrow they favour a small rise, the PoM also; CR is expected to be positive and no ED; market sentiment today should have been sedative but as we know it was jubilant, tomorrow is positive.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up 15pts.

For the week: a slim rise.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: a small rise.

Will I bet? I anticipated the FTSE dragging its legs today and was wrong, but my scalping made a better than anticipated tidy sum. Tomorrow favours a rise based mainly on market sentiment [I anticipate a 18pt rise], but experience tells me to hold back until morning. I’ll scalp again.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 29th December 2006

Thursday’s results:
Close: 6240, down 4pts [0.07%]
Range: 6258 - 6232.

Last 5 TD: up 60%
OTM: up 3.14%.

DOW
12501 down 9pts [0.07%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.31%.
OTM: up 2.28%

S&P 500
1424.73, down 2.11pts [0.15%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.09%.
OTM: up 1.72%

News items of note:

None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday’s 1-3 had switched from a weak fall to a rise and the Intraday saw a minor rise. Fridays, both 1-3 and Intraday continue to see a weak rise.

The PoM System: –0.75, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE ending the day down.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
None UK
15:00hrs Chicago PMI [US]

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: quite a tug of war today between the Oil and mining sectors with the Oil winning and nudging the market down.

Charts and PoM conflict; no CR or ED and the US ED is not expected to shuffle the market; market sentiment continues to be positive, but oil prices and the mining sectors are set to reverse. Last TD of the year tomorrow and it’s not looking at all clear. Historically it’s a 50/50 split for up/down.

The fly in the ointment: 'Saddam' could be executed within days [Reuters] and this may cause a minor price ripple with Oil. Add to that the possibility of reprisals and we could have a market that ends up close to evens again.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up at evens.

For the week: a slim rise.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: nothing.

Will I bet? Scalping today paid for a Tesco crate of whisky and no more; tomorrow’s direction, as it stands, is uncertain. Best scalp.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[bottomleyp]

Hi UKHERO

Read your posting each evening, great read, well presented.
In you last post you say miners/oil change direction.
Can you explain your theory ie oil up/down and why

 

[ukhero]

Last FTSE Post

Darmon unt Heron, Ladies and Gentlemen, regrettably this will be my last daily FTSE post.

Although I will continue with my FTSE studies, I have decided to spend the greater abundance of my time in the coming year studying the Commodities Sector [mainly Oil] and Forex [GBP/USD – EUR/JPY] in order to increase my wily knowledge to best enhance my growing portfolio.

I would like to take the opportunity in wishing all the readers and comentors of the Forum a profitable coming year and may all your losses, if at all, be nothing more than the spread.

And to all those who are considering entering the wonderful world of Spread Betting, I will say this: ‘Spread Betting on the Internet is like an exciting computer game. Except there’s no saved game feature, special cheats or easy mode and money lost is for real!’

Here’s to a profitable New Year

Ulysses Kingstable Hero

 

[hhass1]

Last FTSE Post

Darmon unt Heron, Ladies and Gentlemen, regrettably this will be my last daily FTSE post.

Although I will continue with my FTSE studies, I have decided to spend the greater abundance of my time in the coming year studying the Commodities Sector [mainly Oil] and Forex [GBP/USD – EUR/JPY] in order to increase my wily knowledge to best enhance my growing portfolio.

I would like to take the opportunity in wishing all the readers and comentors of the Forum a profitable coming year and may all your losses, if at all, be nothing more than the spread.

And to all those who are considering entering the wonderful world of Spread Betting, I will say this: ‘Spread Betting on the Internet is like an exciting computer game. Except there’s no saved game feature, special cheats or easy mode and money lost is for real!’

Here’s to a profitable New Year

Ulysses Kingstable Hero

UKHero,

Sorry to hear this, as I was planning to start trading the FTSE 2007 based on your comment , any future help will be very much appreciated,

Cheers,
Hass

 

[ukhero]

Hi UKHERO

Read your posting each evening, great read, well presented.
In you last post you say miners/oil change direction.
Can you explain your theory ie oil up/down and why

Good question. This time of year investors buy in or out of a sector, but once it’s happened it’s happened. In that, as long as the influx isn’t too great the sector will continue thereafter, in the short term, with little change.

The mining sector today [Thursday] has seen some over buying – and that’s as much as it should go. Hereafter, we should see little movement tomorrow or a minor reverse. The latter is favoured.

ANTOFAGASTA up 1.29%
RIO TINTO up 0.41%
XSTRATA up 2.36%

The Oil sector, on the other hand, has fallen too far in comparison to oil prices, and with oil likely to rise in the coming weeks we may see a reverse of today’s events: stability in the Middle East is again in the news; the uncertainty of Saddam in regards to his execution and the knock on effects; winter, which has been mild so far, appears to have shuffled further in season; the latter end of January and February looks to be a tad harsh according to LRWF, and as such should push oil prices North – but there’s speculation here. Also as to when it will kick in.

Brent crude up $60.67

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A down 0.61%
BP down 0.52%

I see oil shuffling between $60.40 and $63.10 between now and the end of February. Lets see.

Yours,
UK

 

[ukhero]

UKHero,

Sorry to hear this, as I was planning to start trading the FTSE 2007 based on your comment , any future help will be very much appreciated,

Cheers,
Hass

Welcome Hass,

And welcome to the chaotic mailstum of Markets and Shares.

If you’re not already a seasoned investor by profession or period my only recommendation is, open a demo account and trade for 6 months with a continuous personal daily analysis of the markets and their interlocking oddities. After that, bet/invest the minimal amount in relation to your account. If you then make a handsom profit, let me know and I'll give you my Paypal account you can credit me with the price of a bottle of whisky.

will assist when ever I can. Looking forward to readng your comments for 2007.

Good trading

UK

 

[Vorbis]

I'll be sorry to see you're FTSE analysis go, UKHero. I've found it to be very informative in the past.

I occasionally bet on oil prices though so I hope you decide to do a similar analysis on them at some point.

Incidently, do you know of anywhere on-line that produces decent longer-term charts of crude prices for free? I use Sharescope Gold which does'nt do oil. I can find charts for the current month, but all the longer-term ones that I've found are too small to see clearly and lack any kind of customization.

 

[SirFrancis]

See you soon Hero

I'm sorry to read that you're moving away from your daily FTSE commentary, but I look forward to reading your comments in other threads!


Al the very best in 2007.

 

[ukhero]

The PoM results, 2006

Warts an all.

Many of you will be familiar with the PoM factor in my pre-daily FTSE analysis. For those unfamiliar: The PoM [Plus or Minus] system is a manual system [assisted by Excel] whereby, basic known factors which will directly effect the FTSE are given a numerical value. Some will be positive others negative, all are added up to provide the user with a figure. Positive means up, negative down.

The PoM system is an indicator not a stand alone, as some would believe. It was devised to supplement other indicators to best predict the following days market. In all, I consider it a success.

Some of the Key Factors used:

Price of Oil.
Oil sector.
Mining sector.
Bank sector.
FTSE and DOW result yesterday.
FTSE and DOW last three days.
The Month and day of the week.
World and Market news as and when happenings are likely to have a lingering impact.


General facts and figures:


Of the 252 Trading Days:

130 correct [326.3 points attributed]
77 incorrect [144.1 points attributed]
45 No Bets [Due to, in most cases, were the release of economic data would most likely govern the markets direction]

Points range / percentage correct:

0-1: 52%

1-2: 65%

2-3: 58%

3-4: 62%

4-5: 73%

5 plus: 85%

Average 66%

Best month for prediction was February @ 75%

Worst month was May and November @ 50%

Best day of the week were Tuesdays @ 79%

Worst day of the week were Mondays @ 52%

Best month for profit: June, £1532

Worst month for profit: July, £17

As I’ve said, the PoM system supplements charts and data, but if the PoM system were to be followed religiously throughout the year without deviation, or reliance on any other system / indicator / individual judgement, etc; and £1 was to equate to 0.25 of the PoM result, and the bet placed with an SB company on market open, to expire at close of market, profit for 2006 would have been: £7628 [spread cost not included / deducted].

Example: PoM result 0.75, at £1 per 0.25 of PoM result, placed as a SB and the FTSE closes up by 20pts = £60.

In regards to Binary, if the same were applied, profit would have been: # approx £4400.

# Whereas the same bet placed with a Binary, assuming the bet is placed as close to opening as possible, which we know is always distorted if the FTSE opens up / down ‘X’ amount of points prior to the Binary commencing; so if we say a 40 – 60 price as an average: PoM result 0.75, a £3 stake for the market ending the day up = £120.

To sum up. The PoM has a high success rate with a factor of 5 and above [and naturally so], therefore I intend to watch it closely for its prediction on Monday night for the following Tuesday! In all it has served me well throughout the year and I shall continue tweaking the system and let you know the results at the end of 2007.

Good trading to all.

UK

 

[barjon]

UK

I always take a keen interest in your posts and I'm sure I reflect the views of many by thanking you for the daily analysis. Sorry they're to end.

On your POM factor, does success mean an up day from the previous day close or an up day from the open? The ftse opening gap counts for a lot when looking at tradability?

All good fortune in 2007 and continued good trading

jon

ps: whoops, now spotted that you've about answered the questions in your post.

 

[ukhero]

UK

I always take a keen interest in your posts and I'm sure I reflect the views of many by thanking you for the daily analysis. Sorry they're to end.

On your POM factor, does success mean an up day from the previous day close or an up day from the open? The ftse opening gap counts for a lot when looking at tradability?

All good fortune in 2007 and continued good trading

jon

ps: whoops, now spotted that you've about answered the questions in your post.

‘The ftse opening gap counts for a lot when looking at tradability?’

Sorry wrote this before I scrolled down to see your ps! But I think my comments below add to my prior post and further explain certain issues.

Very true. Entry and exit is of paramount importance and as we know determines the degree of profit and loss.

I’ve rated the PoM’s success / failure as follows, the result is calculated from the days close at ‘X’ at 1636hrs to the following days close at ‘Y’ at 1636hrs. X /Y being the points difference / up down. The PoM can be calculated prior to the FTSE’s close [about 10 minutes].

Although the US markets continue to run for another 4 ½ hours, during which they can quite dramatically switch direction and in doing so effect the FTSE’s following day’s early morning movement this is only a small part [although important] of the PoM’s total factor. And as we know, should the US markets switch direction after the FTSE’s close is doesn’t mean they will continue in that direction the following day. Swings and round-abouts.

The difficult part I’ve found in regards to the PoM’s factor is acting upon it. Deliberation is thine enemy. Also, it has a habit of conflicting with other factors and data, which should always be studied, and observations considered.

Note. With a high points factor, lets say a ‘4’ rather then a ‘1’ it has a chance of being able to cushion itself from unknowns, such as a US markets direction switch.

I’ve followed the FTSE religiously throughout the year and appended the PoM system every single TD in the Forum, and some day’s I’m amazed at its results when it conflicts strongly with charts and data. Sometimes its right and others wrong and sometimes the factor is wildly off the mark, but its strength and ultimately its success is ‘understanding why’ the PoM provided the factor in the first place, and knowing that when the market suddenly twitches and moves the other way, provides, in regards to myself, with a profitable advantage.

I’m looking forward to a wonderful 2007.

Best regards

UK

 

[aspex]

ukhero,
Maybe a weekly commentary would be in order with comments about the previous week.

 

[ukhero]

ukhero,
Maybe a weekly commentary would be in order with comments about the previous week.

Good Idea, Aspex.

Food for thought me-thinks!

The down side to a weekly is, a lot can change in a week which could quite easily make me look like a dimble weed. I'll give it some thought.

Thanks for the suggestion.

UK

 

[ukhero]

I'll be sorry to see you're FTSE analysis go, UKHero. I've found it to be very informative in the past.

I occasionally bet on oil prices though so I hope you decide to do a similar analysis on them at some point.

Incidently, do you know of anywhere on-line that produces decent longer-term charts of crude prices for free? I use Sharescope Gold which does'nt do oil. I can find charts for the current month, but all the longer-term ones that I've found are too small to see clearly and lack any kind of customization.

On the subject of charts, Capital Spreads provides a 3 month daily view.

For a longer period, I’ve downloaded 2006 into an Excel spreadsheet and played with their charts. Not the best but it’s viewable.

I’m not on my normal computer at the mo’ so I’m unable to recall the name of the web site that provides long term historical data. When I am I’ll send you the web address.

Yours

UK

 

[aspex]

For 2007 FWIW
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=299156#post299156