The Daily Index Trader

[princetrader]

Since I'm down £100 out of the initial £500 fund, if I'm not mistaken I would have to have 5-6 winning day in a row just to break-even again. Bear in mind the day you have a winning trade half of the profit is taken by the loosing trade. I see this system unfolding & the maths just doesn't add up!!!

 

[SteveBanks]

Having just read through some of the posts I can see this system is not a mean reversion pair trade, but a simple automated momentum capturing trade based on the idea that at 9:15am markets have usually started up high/flat and fading during the morning, or start low/flat and rising. The Long DAX (Stop entry-X, Limit entry+2X) and Short CAC (Stop entry+Y, Limit entry-2Y) will win as long as DAX/CAC are highly correlated and the momentum of the market is steady in one direction through the morning/day. The hope being you get stopped on one for -X but win the other for +2X, net +1X. Of course if the market wipsaws you out of both you lose -2X, hence risk:reward of 2:1.

Now there are a number of variables to hurt this system:
1) If DAX/CAC are not very correlated some days, but that could also help in reverse some days when they mean-revert over the long run.
2) Wipsawing market is the real big affect, and I would say that affect is not very quantifiable.

Given 2) is not very easy to measure, I would question the stated performance of 76% win rate, as that is purely based on one set of historical figures. If that win rate is off by just 10% (ie.66%) then your system is back to only breakeven. Also with a risk:reward of 2:1 if you get a run of mostly losers your account is hit big time, that is the problem with a 2:1 risk:reward system, hence most people try for 1:2 or better...

Anyway, that's my evaluation, not sure it helps, but in summary I think you may find some of you will be lucky winners in the long run, and some may hit losing runs with big drawdowns.

good luck!

Thanks leonarda,

a good constructive post that gives food for thought. Not being an expert on these points I think the best thing to do is to send a copy of your post to Martin Carter to give his thoughts. I shall do that straight away.

Many thanks.

 

[leonarda]

There are people hear who are unsually always positive about this system. They are not giving a fair representation of the system. And if anyone dares to criticise the system the PR machine gets into action. lets face it so far the system has been crap!! From reading the forum I understand this is going to be the third loosing week. I started of with £500 8% sipmle compound, I've had 3 loosing trades & 1 winning trade out of the last four days. I'm down £100.

Look at the system closely, there is no strategy. All your doing is taking a short position on one & a long position on the other & just hoping for the best.

I must say from a long term trading perspective having a 20% drawdown in 4 days is not good! and means you are using far too larger risk per trade. As you say the quantifiable "edge" in this system is dubious, and what makes things worse is the 2:1 risk:reward which means just a "small" variation in winning rate causes a "large" effect on performance. For that reason it is not a good system in my opinion, and I wouldn't trade it.

 

[SteveBanks]

There are people hear who are unsually always positive about this system. They are not giving a fair representation of the system. And if anyone dares to criticise the system the PR machine gets into action. lets face it so far the system has been crap!! From reading the forum I understand this is going to be the third loosing week. I started of with £500 8% sipmle compound, I've had 3 loosing trades & 1 winning trade out of the last four days. I'm down £100.

Look at the system closely, there is no strategy. All your doing is taking a short position on one & a long position on the other & just hoping for the best.

princetrader,

There is no PR machine on this forum, only people who have bought the system and are commenting on it from their viewpoint.

If you are looking for a get rich quick scheme then you shouldn't have bought it.

Leonarda has posted a well thought out view and it is something worth looking at. All you do is rant and rave. I suggest you send the manual back for a refund and find something more suited to your short term view.

 

[leonarda]

Thanks leonarda,

a good constructive post that gives food for thought. Not being an expert on these points I think the best thing to do is to send a copy of your post to Martin Carter to give his thoughts. I shall do that straight away.

Many thanks.

no problem, but I wouldn't expect anything positive back from Martin. He has his belief in the system. What I am saying is more to help you form your own opinions based on judgement. So only take my opinion as just that.

If I were you I would spend some time browsing these forums and reading some books and developing your own "simple" strategy, trend following, breakouts, swing trading, etc.. Start small and learn...

One bit of advice I would give if you stick with this though is to trade small and with minimum risk per trade with this to start with.

 

[princetrader]

princetrader,

There is no PR machine on this forum, only people who have bought the system and are commenting on it from their viewpoint.

If you are looking for a get rich quick scheme then you shouldn't have bought it.

Leonarda has posted a well thought out view and it is something worth looking at. All you do is rant and rave. I suggest you send the manual back for a refund and find something more suited to your short term view.

This is exactly what I meant by PR machine!!! anyway why are you getting so upset by my comments, I am merely pointing out the facts,. You seem to have an unhealthey positive view about this system!!!

 

[SteveBanks]

This is exactly what I meant by PR machine!!! anyway why are you getting so upset by my comments, I am merely pointing out the facts,. You seem to have an unhealthey positive view about this system!!!

You obviously do not understand what a "PR Machine" is. And ending every sentence you write with multiple exclamation marks just makes you sound like someone shouting and out of control. Therefore I shall not respond any more and leave you to your shout at yourself.

 

[princetrader]

You obviously do not understand what a "PR Machine" is. And ending every sentence you write with multiple exclamation marks just makes you sound like someone shouting and out of control. Therefore I shall not respond any more and leave you to your shout at yourself.

SteveBanks AKA Martin Carter lol!!

 

[chronicsys]

Greetings fellow DITers,

May I submit my account for inclusion in this private forum that is being set up please? I purchased DIT September 17th but was not up, running and trading until 22.09.2010.

Thanks

 

[SteveBanks]

Greetings fellow DITers,

May I submit my account for inclusion in this private forum that is being set up please? I purchased DIT September 17th but was not up, running and trading until 22.09.2010.

Thanks

You're most welcome chronicsys,

I've put you on the list but I'm afraid you'll have to ignore a couple of dodgy people who have been posting recently. I'm sure you understand that the best thing to do is ignore them. The good news is that once the private forum is set up they can be discarded.

Good luck with your trading

 

[Baldeaglebloke]

Good Morning Chaps - yesterday I posted that I was now in a small loss after 6 weeks and there were expressions of concern (rightly) about the system. I was out in the afternoon hence my response now.

I started using this on 13/8 and for sake of assumptions we'll assume a £1,000 starting bank. I was using 7.2% risk and the enhanced staking method. My bank now stands at £938 ie the small loss. Now whereas I don't un derstand the maths behind the enhanced staking plan I think Steve B discussed it earlier but yesterday (Wednedsay) I had had a previous run of 7 winners so Wednesdays were proving (from my limited stats to be good days). As with all it will not win every wednesday so was due a loser. With some poor other results then that has tipped me into a small loss.

Consequently I had a look at the other plans and different risks and this is what I found

I've had 39 trades, 28 winners and 11 losers for a strike rate of 72% - I did make a mess of 1 trade so it should read 29 winners & 10 losers s/r 74% but I'm using my data that I traded real money on as in my mind and as has been pointed out backtesting can be used to make a system fit the market. The only real way is forward testing and lets accept that systems that worked 3,6,9 or 12 months ago maynot work now (look at Net Trap). Anyway the results from the different staking plans from a £1000 starting bank
Risk 7.2% 5% 2%
Enhanced £937 £954 £980
Compound £1201 £1149 £1063
Flat £1225 £1145 £1047

So it is my staking plan that has caused this loss of mine.

I only present these facts as that is what they are from my limited experience of the system - don't shoot me down for posting my actual results.

Leonardos comments are welcomed regarding his experiences and I will certainly take them on board. Have a good day

 

[sarnia cherie]

Long DAX short CAC today?

 

[steve79]

Long DAX short CAC today?

That's what my Evaluator is telling me.

 

[SRC]

The correlation looks good today and no big moves either so fingers crossed.

 

[SRC]

I have been told to be out of all positions by 1.30 this Friday due to US Non Farm Payrolls. I dont know too much about this so will take further study, but if there are any major moves this surely could be a good thing? Can anyone offer any advice for DIT'ers, it would be most appreciated.

 

[Baldeaglebloke]

I have been told to be out of all positions by 1.30 this Friday due to US Non Farm Payrolls. I dont know too much about this so will take further study, but if there are any major moves this surely could be a good thing? Can anyone offer any advice for DIT'ers, it would be most appreciated.

Historically I don't believe DIT has taken account of any market news - it appears set and forget although there is no reason why you can't modify it - have a look at all non farm payroll fridays from the data in the spreadsheet and see what you think about those fridays - in fact I may do it myself. Good luck today

 

[Ade2]

SRC,

Logically, you could manually exit your trade shortly before 1.30pm and enter 2 further new positions using the percentage S/L and P/T shown in the manual.

That should cover you whichever way the market moves.

 

[Giriram99]

Had problems getting both trades on Gekko today!

Dax went on ok, cac took several attempts and evntually went on 4 minutes later!

Hope this does not have an adverse effect on todays trades!

 

[SRC]

Historically I don't believe DIT has taken account of any market news - it appears set and forget although there is no reason why you can't modify it - have a look at all non farm payroll fridays from the data in the spreadsheet and see what you think about those fridays - in fact I may do it myself. Good luck today

Many thanks, will do, good luck to you to Sir!

 

[SRC]

SRC,

Logically, you could manually exit your trade shortly before 1.30pm and enter 2 further new positions using the percentage S/L and P/T shown in the manual.

That should cover you whichever way the market moves.

Good Idea. Unfortunately i will be away from my computer at that time so i will either use DIT as normal or use my demo account to see how it pans out. Its a good learning curve anyway. Good luck today