Best Thread Technical analysis... a load of ********

[shadowninja]

The more I think about it, the more I realise that I just cannot trade without TA. Occasionally, IG Index's graphs freeze on me and I feel like I really am flying blind.

 

[options]

The more I think about it, the more I realise that I just cannot trade without TA. Occasionally, IG Index's graphs freeze on me and I feel like I really am flying blind.

IG charts freeze on you? Which ones are you using, the simple ones or the advanced charts?
Can't say I've had this problem and that is running the advanced charts alongside the cmc resource hungry software as well.

 

[shadowninja]

Both. Seems like anything to do with Java (in other words a nightmare when IG's front end was purely Java). It says the server cannot be accessed as if I had lost a connection to the internet. All data updates fine though in the old Java front end until I try a refresh then that gets a "server not found". Bit dodgy if you ask me.

 

[dgainda]

TA is complete Bull

Yes I have been trading for 15 years and read the best books TA is bull, it works about 30% of the time and because the market is FIXED the market maker moves it against you where the maximum people brought and knock out all the stops..

 

[shadowninja]

Thanks for the reply. Will check that site out.

 

[nine]

The site/article is, to quote the site, "Bull****" and "fixed." They don't use the stars because they're trying to appear macho and tough (not the slick salesdwerps that they really are).

More cherry picking to defend their views and sell their system. They live in a fantasy world populated by (now frequently non-existent) market makers.

TA works for those of us who do the work and find things that are useful in our markets (its a tool set and you can't fix a capacitor with a hammer). It doesn't work for those who don't do the work. And for some reason (dissonance, ego) these people then decide that it doesn't work at all.

 

[Trader333]

TA is complete Bull....

Crikey, I must just have been quite lucky then but thanks for letting me know as I will immediately quit trading before my luck runs out


Paul

 

[TheBramble]

Crikey, I must just have been quite lucky then but thanks for letting me know as I will immediately quit trading before my luck runs out

I've just looked at the chart of your luck Paul and it's still on an up trend. I'd wait until it breaks down through the trendline before considering it's run out.

 

[hanhao]

There are those who trade using tape reading only with no graphs or other tools and many of them make substantial incomes. Also if charts etc are so good then why do up to 90% of those who use them lose ?


Paul

is it true that 90% of ppl who use charts lose? how did you know that?

 

[chump]

Let me tell you something....in terms of purchasing power which is net of everything that effects your financial world from ..tax...inflation....transaction costs of investing/trading etc etc ...90% and perhaps more lose so why be surprised that a subset using charts might also lose. ? It's just natures way of separating the competent from the ....not so competent

 

[Priceman]

It's about comprehension of what's happening right there in front of you.

Maybe sometimes the trending line is adhered to and price bounces straight off it. This could just be because those who want you to believe that you are right are suckering you straight in until the next touch of the trendline doesn't bounce off it, it ploughs on through. Just take these TA lines for what they are; pay attention points. There are so many variables involved with the price of a market to fully understand what the big boys are doing. They need someone on the other side; the more the merrier for them! This is how they line their pockets. Don't just think that because this is a trend channel price will do what you think it will. Understand what the charts are saying to you. Fundamentals play a big part obviously too.

Never forget we're just market followers, we never decide where they go, we just hop on and enjoy the ride. It's always nice to have an idea though where it may go in advance.

All the best

 

[ampro]

It's about comprehension of what's happening right there in front of you.

There are so many variables involved with the price of a market to fully understand what the big boys are doing. They need someone on the other side; the more the merrier for them! This is how they line their pockets.

You're assuming these 'big boys' are always on the right side of the market.

You might be surprized to learn that quite often they aint

They have no more idea than you as to where the markets headed. They're just contantly managing & juggling their risk.

Plus, they've got a tad more dough than you to play with. Most of their mistakes (& believe you me, there are plenty) don't necessarily come directly out of their pocket either

 

[ampro]

You're assuming these 'big boys' are always on the right side of the market.

On hindsight, that was a wet & girlie comment - apologies!

There's nothing to suggest you were actually assuming anything LOL (which was rightly pointed out to me - cheers M )

That could have been worded better, but I think you get my drift.

 

[chump]

I thought there was a good point being raised here about so called 'bigboys'...let me put it this way there is no law that says 'bigboy' is the same as being a 'smart boy'. There are umpteen 'bigboy's' being given their walking papers right now by the 'smart boys'.

 

[chump]

Gamma,
I have to say the charts are not following at all ,but it depends on how you read your charts...what charts you use etc....in other words we are back full circle to what I said earlier...what do people think TA is and what do they think it is there to do.
Pullup long term charts of the FTSE100 and then pullup charts of the major sectors...if you can't see something in that that would warn you to have money off the table then go to DBP's group and have a further look at charts of sectors I posted there.

 

[Splitlink]

But to bring things full circle back to TA, think it's worth noting that in these extreme moves of the last few days / weeks, the charts are most definitely following, not leading the action. What I mean by this is that this is purely a fundamental, structural and positioning story, NOT a broad market move driven by the shape of any chart. Subprime meltdown is fuelling asset repatriation and position squaring in the largely leveraged community that all have a lot of highly correlated (especially when there's a liquidity squeeze) positions on. Risk aversion is ratcheting up as a result, and people are bailing out of carry in big size.

Doesn't mean charts don't work, but I think you have to understand cause and effect in the context of the market you are in, and right now charts aren't in the 'cause' camp.

GJ

The charts are very spikey, these days, but I would not know what to do without them as far as trading is concerned. I don't know who is squaring positions,etc-, or by how much. That is a matter for the institutional traders and I can only try to figure out where there is likely to be a rally or a setback.

Maybe, that is why I'll never be rich.

Split

 

[TheBramble]

Doesn't mean charts don't work, but I think you have to understand cause and effect in the context of the market you are in, and right now charts aren't in the 'cause' camp.

GJ - with TA you don't need to consider what the cause might be too fully, or even at all.

TA has been working for me just fine during this recent market phase.

And are you really sure the charts haven't driven the charts to any extent at all?

 

[Rhody Trader]

There are umpteen 'bigboy's' being given their walking papers right now by the 'smart boys'.

And quite a few who thought they were the smart boys being shown that they were just bigboys.

 

[dbphoenix]

Gamma,
I have to say the charts are not following at all ,but it depends on how you read your charts...what charts you use etc....in other words we are back full circle to what I said earlier...what do people think TA is and what do they think it is there to do.
Pullup long term charts of the FTSE100 and then pullup charts of the major sectors...if you can't see something in that that would warn you to have money off the table then go to DBP's group and have a further look at charts of sectors I posted there.

Or one can use the leading, following, and concurrent aspects of charts simultaneously. Here, for example, is what I worked off of yesterday. Note the bounce off support, the bounce off resistance, the pullback, another bounce off resistance, another bounce off support, another bounce off resistance, and last a failure of support. All very straightforward.

On the other hand, if anyone is equating TA with indicators, I can't help them there.

Db

 

[Rhody Trader]

I am in a position which allows me the opportunity to see and hear about a lot of the institutional level stuff that's going on across all the major markets and is in focus at that level. During most periods it doesn't really matter that much. I don't really factor it in to the way I trade. My approach is almost 100% technical (except for in stock position trading, which does incorporate a bit of fundamentals).

At times like these when things are really driven by institutional level considerations (meaning massive shifts in allocations and psychology) I do pay attention to it all. I find it definitely worthwhile in helping to know the driver of moves at times when the markets are really volatile. It gives me a better feel for the market risk and comes in quite handy in picking out good potential trades. The mental state of the market drivers is something I definitely find quite useful to have in mind.