Hi dr.blix - I see you're correct about negative divergence appearing through the last month. Its pretty clear on toe 12RSI or 20Osc. It first shows at 18/05, which has a lower RSI but higher price than previous peak, 08/05. The divergence develops on 01/06, but by 11/06, the next indicator peak, price has fallen back, easing the downward pressure if anything I would have thought. I'm sure these things aren't an exact science but the 11/06 chart doesn't suggest to me a 115pt drop is coming two days later, especially after the very slight drop on 12/06.
What I would be equally happy to learn would be if anyone had concluded that the market was unlikely to give a simple signal of the impending fall. We all spend a lot of time learning to recognise and seeking out entry signals and various indicators that something is going to happen. There might be market conditions or formations we can also identify when these signals are unlikely to print - that would be useful knowledge too if anyone has formed a picture of such conditions.
tenbobtrader
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conditions
Hi Tomorton
7th may high vol bar actual which showed up less well on futures
3 day continuation signal, possible swing low at the time, no volume at take off, then high"ish volume at the re-test of the high (narrow spread)
condition:
1. failure or false start in place
2. 7th may bar possible cap
from that point on I assume market in range and trade with appropriate strategy or remain flat until resolved
think it was barjon who posted some time back when someone wanted to no how you no its a swing low "you just have to assume its a pullback was the quick answer given"
Do not use any indicators at all Tomorton, would have thought they are pretty useless when price is in a low volume range and rotating, do they not almost just flat line themselves ?
all patterns printed in a range are not continuation patterns imho, if they look like continuation patterns its because you have not defined the market conditions
if in range, fake shake fake shake from one side to the other, chop chop !! pain for many
ie: range or trend ?
news out ! its a range ? I hope
Hi Tomorton
7th may high vol bar actual which showed up less well on futures
3 day continuation signal, possible swing low at the time, no volume at take off, then high"ish volume at the re-test of the high (narrow spread)
condition:
1. failure or false start in place
2. 7th may bar possible cap
from that point on I assume market in range and trade with appropriate strategy or remain flat until resolved
think it was barjon who posted some time back when someone wanted to no how you no its a swing low "you just have to assume its a pullback was the quick answer given"
Do not use any indicators at all Tomorton, would have thought they are pretty useless when price is in a low volume range and rotating, do they not almost just flat line themselves ?
all patterns printed in a range are not continuation patterns imho, if they look like continuation patterns its because you have not defined the market conditions
if in range, fake shake fake shake from one side to the other, chop chop !! pain for many
ie: range or trend ?
news out ! its a range ? I hope
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Hi tenbobtrader - Market was certainly in range and I suppose the correct thing would be to have stop to just below bottom of range and limit order to just below top, when a reverse into a short might be possible.
As most reversal signals tend to be reversals of trends, I guess the clue is in the name, a range can't give a reversal signal, no matter what indicator or chart type is used.
When swing trading I keep one eye on RSI, but only as a position size guide at entry, not for entry/exit points. Don't trust indicators.
As most reversal signals tend to be reversals of trends, I guess the clue is in the name, a range can't give a reversal signal, no matter what indicator or chart type is used.
When swing trading I keep one eye on RSI, but only as a position size guide at entry, not for entry/exit points. Don't trust indicators.
timsk
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Does anyone here use ProRealTime? If so, I'd appreciate you posting a chart of the FTSE to see if it looks like mine. The ADVFN chart is within the width of a gnats kock of the official close, posted on the London Stock Exchange website. This is just getting silly and, if this is typical of them, I'm gonna have to look elsewhere which is a shame because, in all other respects it's a fabulous free package. I've e-mailed them and they've replied very promptly, but said nothing very reassuring.
Tim.
Tim.
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Geofract
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I have noticed some daily bars are completely missing from PRT on the FTSE -I haven't noticed any probs like that with any of the shares though.
What did Pro realtime have to say for themselves Timsk?
I'm will be trialing PRT with live data next week. Be interesting to see if there are any glitches. It would be a shame if there are glitches, because I really like the sofware - the charting tools are excellent IMO.
What did Pro realtime have to say for themselves Timsk?
I'm will be trialing PRT with live data next week. Be interesting to see if there are any glitches. It would be a shame if there are glitches, because I really like the sofware - the charting tools are excellent IMO.
SuperScalper
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tomorrow is the rollover guys be carefull
dont be surprised if you see any crazy moves tomorrow
dont be surprised if you see any crazy moves tomorrow
hi
For my first FTSE trade/taste.
£2 mini contract CFD.....or little spreadbet?
Which is more ideal to get going?
I have both CFD and spreadbettting accounts.
Are most people here spreadbetting FTSE? or trading it via another method?
Thanks for help.
For my first FTSE trade/taste.
£2 mini contract CFD.....or little spreadbet?
Which is more ideal to get going?
I have both CFD and spreadbettting accounts.
Are most people here spreadbetting FTSE? or trading it via another method?
Thanks for help.
Hi jonboy123 - I mostly SB the FTSE100, usually aiming to swing trade via the next available month's book, so I always have a month clear on the position just in case I can let it run. But I also sometimes use FTSE100 iShares for longs - I don't have all my trading reserves in SB accounts (the share dealing account also pays interest), and it makes sense to make some of the reserve work. If SB-ing, it is a good idea to have at least a back-up account as well as the main, in case you can't access the trading platform or dealers at the main SB firm - at least you can hedge using the back-up. I have no experience witb CFDs or DMA.
SBing over weeks/months is viable - overheads are releatively low across such a time frame. The quotes follow the market moves very closely during LSE hours but beware of much greater volatility outside hours (which is most of the time, obviously). Tighlty placed stops will be eaily taken out by overnight action: whereas it might look as iof the FTSE closed and re-opened within a couple of points, often the overnight quotes willl range many points higher or lower. I usually abandon SB stops outside LSE hours, but ths is an extra level of risk of course.
SBing over weeks/months is viable - overheads are releatively low across such a time frame. The quotes follow the market moves very closely during LSE hours but beware of much greater volatility outside hours (which is most of the time, obviously). Tighlty placed stops will be eaily taken out by overnight action: whereas it might look as iof the FTSE closed and re-opened within a couple of points, often the overnight quotes willl range many points higher or lower. I usually abandon SB stops outside LSE hours, but ths is an extra level of risk of course.
Hey guys, I also have been using the free PRT charting software which is a very flexible platform. However I have found that at times I cannot chart certain stocks from the ftse 100 & 250. Is this because they are an american company and focus on US stocks?
Has any1 else experienced this?
Another thought on this week's downturn - Confirmation that we are in a bull market, rather than a bear market rally might have been expected by a breach of the S&P January high at 944 (06/01). Neither the Dow nor the FTSE100 are very near their respctive early Jan highs.
The S&P closed aboeve 944 3 times recently but only by a narrow margin. Many investors would await a close at this level plus 1% (=952) before committing, and this has not happened so far.
(suggested in magazine Technical Analyst).
The S&P closed aboeve 944 3 times recently but only by a narrow margin. Many investors would await a close at this level plus 1% (=952) before committing, and this has not happened so far.
(suggested in magazine Technical Analyst).
timsk
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Hi dr.blix,hey chaps,
looks very much like a child has crayoned the living room wall but have a look anyway
Yes indeed, if all those lines mean something to you - well great, but it looks like a bit of a dogs dinner to me. No offense!
My only comment is regards to your notation which asks the question: "21 MA possible resistance?" The idea that price finds S&R along trendlines (a MA is just a dynamic, moving trend line) is one of the great misconceptions in trading. So many people believe it and say it, that everyone just assumes that it's true and don't bother to question it.
S&R is found at horizontal levels only - not at MA's. This is easy to prove. Take any chart, mark up the obvious zones of S&R with horizontal lines. Now add any number of MA's at equal intervals. But be sure to add a lot. What you will find is that price 'magically' appears to bounce off most - or all of the MA's - at some point or another. It's just coincidence, nothing more! The only possible exception to this rule is a 50 and 200 SMA as applied to daily charts, as so many people look at these. Some bounces will coincide with the horizontal lines of S&R. Again, this is coincidence, but it's the horizontal S&R lines that are relevant, not the MA's. The market doesn't know or care which MA's dr. blix, timsk, Split, Tom, Jon and the zillions of other traders use on their charts. How can it? It can't so, equally, it can't respond to them either. However, it can- and does - respond to zones of horizontal S&R, as these are the points that traders and investors the world over can observe on their charts, as they represent the areas where market participants have got in and out of the market in the past. At the end of the day, a MA is merely a lagging indicator of trend, nothing more.
Tim.
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timsk
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dr.blix,
Another observation about your chart that I forget to mention in my earlier post is that you appear to only use the histogram on your MACD chart. The actual MACD line itself would be a useful addition IMO, as this will enable you to spot divergences - not just with price - but with the histogram as well. This is one of the lesser known uses of the histogram, as explained rather well here:
YouTube - Technical Analysis Indicator MACD part one
The link is to the first in a series of three videos about MACD - I think it's in the third one that the presenter goes into the detail re. the histogram.
Enjoy,
Tim.
Another observation about your chart that I forget to mention in my earlier post is that you appear to only use the histogram on your MACD chart. The actual MACD line itself would be a useful addition IMO, as this will enable you to spot divergences - not just with price - but with the histogram as well. This is one of the lesser known uses of the histogram, as explained rather well here:
YouTube - Technical Analysis Indicator MACD part one
The link is to the first in a series of three videos about MACD - I think it's in the third one that the presenter goes into the detail re. the histogram.
Enjoy,
Tim.
tenbobtrader
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moment of truth ?
day close could clear matter up
nice inside bar or even possibly two for you to sort out Split
fancy a lower tf pinbar of the US open just to mud up the waters a bit more
flat
day close could clear matter up
nice inside bar or even possibly two for you to sort out Split
fancy a lower tf pinbar of the US open just to mud up the waters a bit more
flat
SabreTT
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The bull wont be confirmed by reaching a new high, it might reach 1100 again but what will confirm is the fallback and how confident buyers are then
Its not whether the market fails but how it handles it
Faber say thanks to inflation we'll not see new lows, which is probably right and explains this 'wile e. coyote hanging in mid air' market phenomena we have going on
Ive been shorting ftse (xuks) since mid may and made nothing much nor lost anything
SabreTT shows his experience. A price that rises, hits resistance, falls back to support then rises again through first resistance is a much better long trade than one that just tracks steadily upwards. Not that I trade on such a long timescale, but plenty of people do, and when they pile in we could have a very hot summer.
