SuddenDeath
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Good morning everyone, much mention of the "coppock buy signal" on the ftse .
Coppock (daily) on Sharescope turned upwards already - 30/04. I think most long-term investors who look at it will use its monthly calculated form but the chart shows the classic signal, turning upwards from a deeply negative value, in fact the lowest score since the chart data began in Jan 94, and the major indices all look pretty much the same now. But stories like this all help the index.
SuddenDeath
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Hi Tomorton, can you find stocks making new 20day highs..
.............. using sharescope ?
.............. using sharescope ?
FTSE100 Candlestick TA Market Update - Lower range day, closing below previous close and today’s open. Price fell significantly from open but recovered to close just above 50% point of range.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA Market Update – Range did not extend upswing by breaching 4518, nor form putative swing low by breaching 4359.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA Market Update – Range did not confirm upswing by breaching 4496, nor extend downswing by breaching 4359.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just below mid-point of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to cap gains. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral and falling. Line chart study suggests bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 3 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high. Next resistance above would be 4640 area from Nov/Jan highs.
Dow – Lower range day with deep early selling, but high close against day’s open suggests pattern close to long-legged doji. Whiplash long pattern. Buying support is encouraging but market has lost clear trend for time being.
Dramatic late recoveries on both FTSE and Dow were spectacular and suggest considerably buying support for this market. Overall though, trend remains unclear, while I remain long and bullish.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA Market Update – Range did not extend upswing by breaching 4518, nor form putative swing low by breaching 4359.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA Market Update – Range did not confirm upswing by breaching 4496, nor extend downswing by breaching 4359.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just below mid-point of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to cap gains. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral and falling. Line chart study suggests bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 3 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high. Next resistance above would be 4640 area from Nov/Jan highs.
Dow – Lower range day with deep early selling, but high close against day’s open suggests pattern close to long-legged doji. Whiplash long pattern. Buying support is encouraging but market has lost clear trend for time being.
Dramatic late recoveries on both FTSE and Dow were spectacular and suggest considerably buying support for this market. Overall though, trend remains unclear, while I remain long and bullish.
FTSE100 Candlestick TA Last session - Higher range day, but closing below previous close and today’s open. Low close, below one-third point of range.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA Last session – Close between recent extremes 4518 and 4359 leaves direction unclear.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA Last session – Close between recent extremes 4406 and 4359 leaves direction unclear.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just near base of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to overshadow, as does 200EMA at appr. 4443. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral and recently falling. Line chart study suggests bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 3 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high. Next resistance above would be 4640 area from Nov/Jan highs.
Dow – Inside narrow range day (ID/NR4) with near-doji pattern, suggesting severe market indecision and potential for significant move in either direction.
Hi dr.blix - I reckon the convergence of the upper and lower boundaries of the price formation is just too narrow to call a triangle or wedge. Seems like they will meet at an apex but about a year away, so I can't put faith in any strength of these patterns. Anyway, these things are so well signposted by commentators these days they seem to be more frequently traded against and neutralised.
This looks more like a slightly rising rectangle (or bull flag) to me, but either way, would you say the likely outcomes are probably the same?
i.e.
a) dramatic break-out upwards within 3-10 days with potential to reach 5340 within 50 days after break-out if early resistance immediately overcome?
b) dramatic break-out upwards within 3-10 days, followed by reversal at 4640 and brisk collapse back towards at least 4000?
c) slow fall from current levels over 10-20 days, then collapse towards 3460?
FTSE100 3d Swing TA Last session – Close between recent extremes 4518 and 4359 leaves direction unclear.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA Last session – Close between recent extremes 4406 and 4359 leaves direction unclear.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just near base of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to overshadow, as does 200EMA at appr. 4443. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral and recently falling. Line chart study suggests bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 3 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high. Next resistance above would be 4640 area from Nov/Jan highs.
Dow – Inside narrow range day (ID/NR4) with near-doji pattern, suggesting severe market indecision and potential for significant move in either direction.
Hi dr.blix - I reckon the convergence of the upper and lower boundaries of the price formation is just too narrow to call a triangle or wedge. Seems like they will meet at an apex but about a year away, so I can't put faith in any strength of these patterns. Anyway, these things are so well signposted by commentators these days they seem to be more frequently traded against and neutralised.
This looks more like a slightly rising rectangle (or bull flag) to me, but either way, would you say the likely outcomes are probably the same?
i.e.
a) dramatic break-out upwards within 3-10 days with potential to reach 5340 within 50 days after break-out if early resistance immediately overcome?
b) dramatic break-out upwards within 3-10 days, followed by reversal at 4640 and brisk collapse back towards at least 4000?
c) slow fall from current levels over 10-20 days, then collapse towards 3460?
barjon
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mmm, when ftse closed at 4405 yesterday dow stood at 8669. When ftse closed at 4405 today dow stood at 8740. That's real weak vs dow and ftse's either going to continue in that vein or it's got some catching up to do - keep an eye on how it goes.
good trading
jon
good trading
jon
FTSE100 Candlestick TA Last session - Higher range day, closing above previous close and today’s open, but very low in the range, at below the 20% point. Pattern resembles inverted hanging man, not too bearish as not following a downtrend, but no buy signal.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA Last session – Close between recent extremes 4518 and 4359 leaves direction unclear.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA Last session – Higher range day, peaking above 4496 confirms upswing from swing low 03/06, though hesitant market took 5 days to achieve this.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just above mid-point of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to overshadow, as does 200EMA at appr. 4443. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support but not tested since 27/05. Possible ascending triangle from 26/05 with head at 4520 suggests upward break-out within 3-10 days. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral and recently falling. Line chart study suggests bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 4 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high. Next resistance above would be 4640 area from Nov/Jan highs.
Dow – Outside range day with close near mid-point of range fails to show clear market direction.
Today's higher range with resistance at 4506 reinforces dr.blix's ascending triangle if I am reading this right. Quite a negative and disappointing day in isolation but still well within the bull flag / rectangle / triangle pattern tiptoeing towards a break-out so clearly not a sell signal yet.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA Last session – Close between recent extremes 4518 and 4359 leaves direction unclear.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA Last session – Higher range day, peaking above 4496 confirms upswing from swing low 03/06, though hesitant market took 5 days to achieve this.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just above mid-point of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to overshadow, as does 200EMA at appr. 4443. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support but not tested since 27/05. Possible ascending triangle from 26/05 with head at 4520 suggests upward break-out within 3-10 days. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral and recently falling. Line chart study suggests bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 4 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high. Next resistance above would be 4640 area from Nov/Jan highs.
Dow – Outside range day with close near mid-point of range fails to show clear market direction.
Today's higher range with resistance at 4506 reinforces dr.blix's ascending triangle if I am reading this right. Quite a negative and disappointing day in isolation but still well within the bull flag / rectangle / triangle pattern tiptoeing towards a break-out so clearly not a sell signal yet.
FTSE100 Candlestick TA Last session - Lower range day, but closing near day’s high, above previous close and today’s open.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA Last session – Close between recent extremes 4518 and 4359 leaves direction unclear.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA Last session – Confirms 10/06 as swing high, though strong close weakens case for short entry.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just above mid-point of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to overshadow. Next resistance above would be 4640 area from Nov/Jan highs. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support but not tested since 27/05. Possible ascending triangle from 26/05 with head at 4520 continues to develop, suggesting upward break-out within 2-9 days. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral and recently rising with price, which might be bullish. Line chart study shows bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 4 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high.
Dow – Higher range day, but weak close below mid-point of range, resembling inverted hammer, is not bullish.
Still long, odds still favour bullish continuation but the market just isn't firing TA buy signals.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA Last session – Close between recent extremes 4518 and 4359 leaves direction unclear.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA Last session – Confirms 10/06 as swing high, though strong close weakens case for short entry.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just above mid-point of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to overshadow. Next resistance above would be 4640 area from Nov/Jan highs. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support but not tested since 27/05. Possible ascending triangle from 26/05 with head at 4520 continues to develop, suggesting upward break-out within 2-9 days. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral and recently rising with price, which might be bullish. Line chart study shows bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 4 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high.
Dow – Higher range day, but weak close below mid-point of range, resembling inverted hammer, is not bullish.
Still long, odds still favour bullish continuation but the market just isn't firing TA buy signals.
Hi dr.blix - We certainly seem to be in consolidation (consolidation within consolidation!?!?) but I don't see a bearish signal either yet. Yes, I note that RSI has kicked up, and some people regard that as rather bullish, some wait for an RSI upturn for confirmation of an upswing.
I don't see the bear flag but I become more hopeful as your ascending triangle is respected by price.
I don't see the bear flag but I become more hopeful as your ascending triangle is respected by price.
FTSE100 Candlestick TA Last session - Inside range day (ID/NR4), closing below previous close and today’s open.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA Last session – Close between recent extremes 4518 and 4359 leaves swing direction unclear.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA Last session – 10/06 remains swing high, close between extremes 4409 and 4506 leaves swing direction unclear.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just above mid-point of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to overshadow. Next resistance above would be 4640 area from Nov/Jan highs. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support but not tested since 27/05: about to be reinforced by entry of 50EMA. Ascending triangle from 26/05 with head at 4520 continues to develop, with apex at 03/07, 28d from base on 26/05, suggesting upward break-out around 22/06. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral and recently rising with price, which might be bullish. Line chart study shows bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 4 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high. Week’s range inside, with last 6 weekly closes showing <0.5% fall. Constriction of daily and weekly volatility signposts likelihood of break-out.
Dow – Lower range day, making 11/06 swing high if descent continues. Price closed above previous close and day’s open, near high of session. 200EMA presented resistance this week. Dow and S&P prices and 50EMAs unable to breach 200EMA, leaving many investors on sidelines.
On the chart the ascending triangle seems to be fast approaching crisis point. The problem is that these things are so widely recognised and traded that they can be 'traded out' - each successive attempt at break-out being sold into aggressively, each possible break-down being bought upwards. Sometomes these patterns collapse or just peter out. If the S&P can re-locate above the 200EMA this should bring in a lot more buying volume. Failure would be equally bearish.
Short-term, should be a good bullish start Monday, the Dow having risen nearly 0.5% after we closed yesterday.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA Last session – Close between recent extremes 4518 and 4359 leaves swing direction unclear.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA Last session – 10/06 remains swing high, close between extremes 4409 and 4506 leaves swing direction unclear.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just above mid-point of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to overshadow. Next resistance above would be 4640 area from Nov/Jan highs. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support but not tested since 27/05: about to be reinforced by entry of 50EMA. Ascending triangle from 26/05 with head at 4520 continues to develop, with apex at 03/07, 28d from base on 26/05, suggesting upward break-out around 22/06. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral and recently rising with price, which might be bullish. Line chart study shows bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 4 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high. Week’s range inside, with last 6 weekly closes showing <0.5% fall. Constriction of daily and weekly volatility signposts likelihood of break-out.
Dow – Lower range day, making 11/06 swing high if descent continues. Price closed above previous close and day’s open, near high of session. 200EMA presented resistance this week. Dow and S&P prices and 50EMAs unable to breach 200EMA, leaving many investors on sidelines.
On the chart the ascending triangle seems to be fast approaching crisis point. The problem is that these things are so widely recognised and traded that they can be 'traded out' - each successive attempt at break-out being sold into aggressively, each possible break-down being bought upwards. Sometomes these patterns collapse or just peter out. If the S&P can re-locate above the 200EMA this should bring in a lot more buying volume. Failure would be equally bearish.
Short-term, should be a good bullish start Monday, the Dow having risen nearly 0.5% after we closed yesterday.
Hi pard - Not really, and yes.
'...recommend spread betting to day trade the ftse 100 cas index'?
Not really, because I am useless so far at daytrading, but if you can do it, do it. There is more than one style of daytrading of course - some traders look for the session to reveal the main direction of the day and take a position to follow this mini-trend, until either the trend or the sessions ends. I think this is a convincing approach if you can do it: have a look at the inthemoneystock.com videos to see how they do this on the S&P.
Other daytraders are scalpers and I don't get this at all. I don't see reliable entry signals or exit points, and the SB firms just see you coming - they can easily run prices a few points beyond the index to stop players out. The risk looks low becasue the points concerned are tiny, but whether you do 100 trades for 49 small winners and 51 small losers over 1 day or or over 1 year, you're going nowhere just the same.
'...use the sb for swing trading?'
Yes, using one of the forward month books. I don't rely on the SB TA charts though. Sometimes I will use iShares for a long swing position on the FTSE100 instead of SB, no real reason, just depends where the money is available on given day. If spreadbetting, its good to have two accounts, so if the platform or connection to the main one crashes you can at the very least place a contrary position on the other to hedge any losses on the main one.
'...recommend spread betting to day trade the ftse 100 cas index'?
Not really, because I am useless so far at daytrading, but if you can do it, do it. There is more than one style of daytrading of course - some traders look for the session to reveal the main direction of the day and take a position to follow this mini-trend, until either the trend or the sessions ends. I think this is a convincing approach if you can do it: have a look at the inthemoneystock.com videos to see how they do this on the S&P.
Other daytraders are scalpers and I don't get this at all. I don't see reliable entry signals or exit points, and the SB firms just see you coming - they can easily run prices a few points beyond the index to stop players out. The risk looks low becasue the points concerned are tiny, but whether you do 100 trades for 49 small winners and 51 small losers over 1 day or or over 1 year, you're going nowhere just the same.
'...use the sb for swing trading?'
Yes, using one of the forward month books. I don't rely on the SB TA charts though. Sometimes I will use iShares for a long swing position on the FTSE100 instead of SB, no real reason, just depends where the money is available on given day. If spreadbetting, its good to have two accounts, so if the platform or connection to the main one crashes you can at the very least place a contrary position on the other to hedge any losses on the main one.
Hi dr.blix - Nice ly spotted. I charted a version of this upward trendline this morning myself - intra-day lows of 09/03 and 21/04. 4 of last 5 sessions have tested it and closed above: I think we are approaching a crisis point this week and, yes, being long, I am concerned at a bear squeeze coming in before (and delaying) the true break-out upwards I still expect from the 26/05-based ascending triangle.
If we close below the triangle I will look at reducing the position. If we close belw the 09/03 trendline, I will probably exit.
If we close below the triangle I will look at reducing the position. If we close belw the 09/03 trendline, I will probably exit.
barjon
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dr.blix
You got 4455 close? Must be a spreadbet chart with "daily" taken to 21:00 (DOW close)? FTSE close was 4442 I think.
FTSE has been ranging since early May and has all but ignored the latest push from DOW - since jumped then ranging at the higher level since beginning of June. The low point in FTSE range was May 13 @ 4328 when DOW closed that day @ 8294. Since then FTSE has put on 114 but DOW has put on 505!!
This is an unusually large disparity and should correct one way or another. FTSE has to catch up around 140 points to match DOW at these levels, or sit smugly in its current range whilst DOW comes back, if it is to correct. 'Course it could correct by going down at a slower rate than a plummeting DOW!!!!!
I'll still be favouring FTSE longs (I see your RSI - which you highlight as a divergence - has come away from overbought levels, so it may have had its breather. Not that I use such indicators, of course!!!) unless it trades weak if DOW drops. Maybe the better bet is long FTSE, short DOW
good trading
jon
You got 4455 close? Must be a spreadbet chart with "daily" taken to 21:00 (DOW close)? FTSE close was 4442 I think.
FTSE has been ranging since early May and has all but ignored the latest push from DOW - since jumped then ranging at the higher level since beginning of June. The low point in FTSE range was May 13 @ 4328 when DOW closed that day @ 8294. Since then FTSE has put on 114 but DOW has put on 505!!
This is an unusually large disparity and should correct one way or another. FTSE has to catch up around 140 points to match DOW at these levels, or sit smugly in its current range whilst DOW comes back, if it is to correct. 'Course it could correct by going down at a slower rate than a plummeting DOW!!!!!
I'll still be favouring FTSE longs (I see your RSI - which you highlight as a divergence - has come away from overbought levels, so it may have had its breather. Not that I use such indicators, of course!!!) unless it trades weak if DOW drops. Maybe the better bet is long FTSE, short DOW
good trading
jon
