counter_violent
Legendary member
- Messages
- 12,636
- Likes
- 3,780
Hmm that should work then.
Spain is sliding into a full-blown economic depression
- Thread starter Black Swan
- Start date
- Watchers 8
Hmm that should work then.
I've heard that about many nationalities..here's the news...most people do that until they can't afford to do it any longer. It's about nothing more than the balance sheet that's behind the asset ..when the BS caves so does the attititude to holding something that can't sell.
Atilla ,
by the way I've just sold my stinky gilts ..LOL there's debt worth holding and there's debt that traps your bollokc in the wringer ..take the money and run is my motto.
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,773
- Likes
- 3,973
I'm surprised anybody buys long term bonds at these rates. Especially with what's coming round the corner. I strongly predict long term rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.
Inflation is the only cure...
Another key aspect of dollar falling is they will inevitably import inflation. Price of oil will also rise.
Somebody posted that the low dollar has resulted in US deficit being halved. This is incorrect. US defecits are continuing to balloon.
This means currency depreciation not having sufficient effect to address twin defecits... Hence, dollar will continue to fall.
Dog chasing tail between legs comes to mind...
its just the perspective of the small business man down here. If the landlord wont budge on the shop rent (and they would rather the shop be empty) then its a bit of a catch 22 because customers are very thin on the ground.
There's an expression 'price is sticky' and it's because it's got a memory ,applies to all sorts of things from property onwards ...the memoryof price holds until it becomes less painful to let it go.And in truth many many people have never experienced a growth enviroment like we have had and probably will continue to have ,but memory of better times ,expected again, are still alive so 'price remains sticky'.
Not just Spain I can assure you.
Short term I would agree, long term no. I think the game is almost up. especially for western countries who expect as you say a certain lifestyle.
B
Black Swan
Black Goose
Have not been over for quite awhile. I assume from your comment you have and if so what feedback can you give that relates to day to day experience in spanish prop..that is did you get next to some agents who were willing to give a realistic idea of market conditions ,price and volumes ,sales times etc ?
try Googling bestvaluespain, there's also an auction in Marbella, direct auctions, next one is 19th November, iirc it's every other month, hardly anything getting sold or reaching low reserve. There's only one way to get into the bargains, and that's to get over there and dyor. I'm seeing 3 bed 2 bath in, for example, Benahavis for 140K...
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,773
- Likes
- 3,973
One of my old clients experienced something similar. He was based along Great Portland Street supplying the likes of M&S. On one side M&S was bearing down on pricing and on the other landlord wanted to up the rates.
He told M&S where to get off - not worth producing for them at the silly prices they were offering for the quality demanded.
He also moved out of central London to North London with bigger premises. He also merged with another garment manufacturer.
He is still in business and as it turned out there is considerable empty office space now floating around in Central and West End of London.
I reckon - as always there will be a redistribution of assets sooner or later. Quicker prices adjust the better...
He told M&S where to get off - not worth producing for them at the silly prices they were offering for the quality demanded.
He also moved out of central London to North London with bigger premises. He also merged with another garment manufacturer.
He is still in business and as it turned out there is considerable empty office space now floating around in Central and West End of London.
I reckon - as always there will be a redistribution of assets sooner or later. Quicker prices adjust the better...
I think that was my quote. The U.S. current account had halved and looks to fall further, however will probably go up on recovery.
I agree the other deficits are wild though. I'm not sure about importing inflation- maybe deporting deflation first.
I don't think think we'll see any inflation until mid-2010 at least. The dollar landscaoe may have changed by then.
I think another dip in the markets will level the playing field between the debtors and the savers. Those with reserves are throwing money at loss-making efforts if there is no strong recovery, which will only open up further problems with declining exports and bad debt etc.
People are saying that the dollar will collapse, but the weak or collapsing dollar only helps escape the debt. They still have the largest gold stock of any country and the largest military. Many are desperate to see the states fail, but for all their madness, I'd rather have them in control than the China or Russia.
On the spanish situation, europe isn't looking to good. France and Germany are the only two producers there, while the rest is a drag. Latvia dragging on sweden, Iceland banks, unrest in Greece... I think the whole world is in for a bumpy road to recovery.
I'm surprised anybody buys long term bonds at these rates. Especially with what's coming round the corner. I strongly predict long term rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.
Inflation is the only cure...
Another key aspect of dollar falling is they will inevitably import inflation. Price of oil will also rise.
Somebody posted that the low dollar has resulted in US deficit being halved. This is incorrect. US defecits are continuing to balloon.
This means currency depreciation not having sufficient effect to address twin defecits... Hence, dollar will continue to fall.
Dog chasing tail between legs comes to mind...
"I'm surprised anybody buys long term bonds at these rates"
Look it's simple. The BOE was a buyer and that screwed with price/yield ,but restricted the risk of buying and getting stuffed. So when you coming through August into Halloween months for stocks you can hedge your risk on stocks by buying gilts. This does two things ,helps keep you in the trend in stocks and not get caught short getting short (naughty boys) and it pays you if you can read a chart and time gilts. Those stinky gilts returned 5.7% cap gain + 1.4% yield = 7.1% for 2 months of positioning .I 'll leave you to annualise it. Plus it kept me long with the market trends with less risk. Two words ,return and risk ,keeping the balance on those per my attitude to risk is all that matters and if stinky gilts have a role to play why not use them ,they are just tools that's all.
Meanwhile ,of course with the BOE at this time adjudged to cease being a buyer in November , someone else can take the risk of being in them when they should be in index linked gilts ,bollkcs in a wringer if the BOE doesn't extend it's QE
..remember what happened to gilts back in summer when the BOE extended QE and I applauded and you told me to stop being an Asre ? Well my asre was riding the BOE QE to make money and that's all this is about.
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,773
- Likes
- 3,973
"I'm surprised anybody buys long term bonds at these rates"
Look it's simple. The BOE was a buyer and that screwed with price/yield ,but restricted the risk of buying and getting stuffed. So when you coming through August into Halloween months for stocks you can hedge your risk on stocks by buying gilts. This does two things ,helps keep you in the trend in stocks and not get caught short getting short (naughty boys) and it pays you if you can read a chart and time gilts. Those stinky gilts returned 5.7% cap gain + 1.4% yield = 7.1% for 2 months of positioning .I 'll leave you to annualise it. Plus it kept me long with the market trends with less risk. Two words ,return and risk ,keeping the balance on those per my attitude to risk is all that matters and if stinky gilts have a role to play why not use them ,they are just tools that's all.
Meanwhile ,of course with the BOE at this time adjudged to cease being a buyer in November , someone else can take the risk of being in them when they should be in index linked gilts ,bollkcs in a wringer if the BOE doesn't extend it's QE
I see where you are coming from. I don't trade gilts or bonds and so I'm more from an academic theoretical perspective when it comes to government debt and financing. It is all about making the money so well done in reading market moves.
Coupled with QE sterling's rise was halted around 1.65 against the dollar but market expectations of rate rises still there. 1.60 seems to have held.
Recent articles indicating BoE requiring or accepting Banks to buy government debt as reserves is another bit of creative accounting that's likely to lead no where fast - other than inflation that is...
Governments will need to finance their debt and the very ones who do are the shakiest of the lot. When that day of reckoning comes it is difficult to imagine who is lining up to buy this debt. There was rumour China was buying US debt but scratch a little below the surface to me that is simply rumour that benefits US and China in propping up the dollar a little longer. Will the Japanese be buying US debt as before after recent events seeing where dollar is heading and gold action. I doubt it.
Right now my sentiments are that given the economic climate equities are well ahead of their earnings. Governments building consumer confidence up before swatting with tax and interest rate hikes... However, with that turn of confidence and production energy prices will rise and that will be a significant inflationary factor as before. Either way possible outcomes are limited and political resolve is questionable so my bet is on inflation...
I can't make money on "when the day comes". I'm dealing with at any given time with the 3 to 6 month cycle and balancing my risks to get my rewards across that timeframe.
I don't have a crystal ball that analyses very complex relationships effected by many unknowns and still manages to comes out with a winning outcome 3 years down the road ,"when the day comes" ..I'll just have to accept my shortcomings and deal with the cycle I can handle.
I don't have a crystal ball that analyses very complex relationships effected by many unknowns and still manages to comes out with a winning outcome 3 years down the road ,"when the day comes" ..I'll just have to accept my shortcomings and deal with the cycle I can handle.
"I'm surprised anybody buys long term bonds at these rates"
Look it's simple. The BOE was a buyer and that screwed with price/yield ,but restricted the risk of buying and getting stuffed. So when you coming through August into Halloween months for stocks you can hedge your risk on stocks by buying gilts. This does two things ,helps keep you in the trend in stocks and not get caught short getting short (naughty boys) and it pays you if you can read a chart and time gilts. Those stinky gilts returned 5.7% cap gain + 1.4% yield = 7.1% for 2 months of positioning .I 'll leave you to annualise it. Plus it kept me long with the market trends with less risk. Two words ,return and risk ,keeping the balance on those per my attitude to risk is all that matters and if stinky gilts have a role to play why not use them ,they are just tools that's all.
Meanwhile ,of course with the BOE at this time adjudged to cease being a buyer in November , someone else can take the risk of being in them when they should be in index linked gilts ,bollkcs in a wringer if the BOE doesn't extend it's QE
And as it appears to have had some interest ,note like a good little trader I now buy back my stinky long gilts
Similar threads
