March
1. I had too many losers to winners (don't know if that is fixable)
2. My winners were too small (one was at half stake which is fixable, the other only gave me a '1 times risk')
1. I had too many losers to winners (don't know if that is fixable)
2. My winners were too small (one was at half stake which is fixable, the other only gave me a '1 times risk')
ditto April
although its (now) fairly obvious I have had a bit of a 'Euro bashing' bias, which has cost me...especially as I mis calculated my lot sizing on the last one, so it cost me more than a usual '1 X' loss
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Pat494
That was a very useful exercise, thank you
I have already realised that my trade management strategy is sub optimal:
I leave a part position with an extremely optimistic target, and using a trialing stop
Seems fine in theory, however
Only two trades in my record achieved a larger profit on this 'final' part than I did on my 'Target 2' (usually around twice the risk in pips, but dictated by previous immediate term Daily chart Support/Resistance levels)
This may be because I 'trail' on the 4 hour time-frame, yet am ultimately aiming for a weekly or monthly time-frame Support / Resistance level, so I am taking the trade out too early, due to the time-frame 'mis-match'
It doesn't really matter why that approach isn't working, it just isn't
So my approach from now on will be to only have the first two targets for each set up (makes calculating the lot size easier too) and to pro-actively seek 'add to' trade set ups to pyramid into winning trades without increasing the overall trade risk size. I used to be able to this quite successfully, adding two, three or even sometimes four positions, only adding when the previous one had no risk and its predecessors 'locked in' profits which at least made the sum of all of the trades break even
Thanks once again Pat494 for motivating me go through this exercise, as you've helped me to remember that something I used to do worked better than what I now do!
Re: CAD JPY long trigger
Order triggered open and T1 achieved. Stops on remaining parts moved to breakeven @ 97.25
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EUR GBP short
Daily trend indicator is short, 4 hour long
Price has retraced 50% of the last down swing and printed a daily long tail / wick daily candle potentially indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
This candle appears within the potential dynamic resistance zone between the daily 20 + 50 period moving averages (indicators) and at the potential weekly resistance of an unconfirmed (only two touches) descending trend line resistance
Looking withing the daily bar, a sound 4 hour ' shooting star' candle can be seen to have been printed, which I am using as my trigger for a short order
Short @ 0.84 85, stop at 0.85 20 (-35pisp risk)
T1 = R1 @ 0.84 50
T2 @ 0.84 00 (potential +85 pips, R=2.4)
As mentioned in recent communication with Pat494, I am no longer having a trailing stop T3 option, should price break the strong support @ 0.84 00, I will look for an opportunity to re-enter the pair short
Daily trend indicator is short, 4 hour long
Price has retraced 50% of the last down swing and printed a daily long tail / wick daily candle potentially indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
This candle appears within the potential dynamic resistance zone between the daily 20 + 50 period moving averages (indicators) and at the potential weekly resistance of an unconfirmed (only two touches) descending trend line resistance
Looking withing the daily bar, a sound 4 hour ' shooting star' candle can be seen to have been printed, which I am using as my trigger for a short order
Short @ 0.84 85, stop at 0.85 20 (-35pisp risk)
T1 = R1 @ 0.84 50
T2 @ 0.84 00 (potential +85 pips, R=2.4)
As mentioned in recent communication with Pat494, I am no longer having a trailing stop T3 option, should price break the strong support @ 0.84 00, I will look for an opportunity to re-enter the pair short
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Re: EUR GBP short
My order has been filled and T1 has been touched (but not quite hit, due to the spread)
I have therefore decided to move my stops to Break Even, removing all risk, but increasing the chance of being stopped out for NIL
My order has been filled and T1 has been touched (but not quite hit, due to the spread)
I have therefore decided to move my stops to Break Even, removing all risk, but increasing the chance of being stopped out for NIL
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Re: EUR GBP short
T1 achieved, price now retracing higher - watching for another short entry trigger as this pair 'winds up' into a smaller and smaller range. Now that both the 4 hour and daily indicators are short, I am anticipating a large move to the downside once the 0.84 00 support level is convincingly broken on the daily time-frame
T1 achieved, price now retracing higher - watching for another short entry trigger as this pair 'winds up' into a smaller and smaller range. Now that both the 4 hour and daily indicators are short, I am anticipating a large move to the downside once the 0.84 00 support level is convincingly broken on the daily time-frame
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NZD JPY long trigger
My daily indicator is long, 4 hour short
Price has retraced 50% of the previous daily up swing and printed a daily (Friday) candle of a 'hammer' type shape suggesting rejection of lower prices at this time
The last 4 hour candle is also a 'hammer' shape, with a very long tail / wick also suggesting strong support for this pair at this level (previous daily support)
I have therefore placed an order to enter this pair long @ 83.15 with a stop below the 4 hour pin at 82. 45 (risk -70pips)
Target 1 = R1 = +70pips @ 83.85
Target 2 - recent highs @ 84.70 (+155pips, R=2.2)
Depending upon price action, I will seek to add to this position if price is able to sustain (close above) a daily break of 85.00 resistance with a longer term target of 88.50
Note stop and T1 are slightly different to the lines added to the attached 4h chart, as I noticed the 4H pin actually went lower than my original stop level
My daily indicator is long, 4 hour short
Price has retraced 50% of the previous daily up swing and printed a daily (Friday) candle of a 'hammer' type shape suggesting rejection of lower prices at this time
The last 4 hour candle is also a 'hammer' shape, with a very long tail / wick also suggesting strong support for this pair at this level (previous daily support)
I have therefore placed an order to enter this pair long @ 83.15 with a stop below the 4 hour pin at 82. 45 (risk -70pips)
Target 1 = R1 = +70pips @ 83.85
Target 2 - recent highs @ 84.70 (+155pips, R=2.2)
Depending upon price action, I will seek to add to this position if price is able to sustain (close above) a daily break of 85.00 resistance with a longer term target of 88.50
Note stop and T1 are slightly different to the lines added to the attached 4h chart, as I noticed the 4H pin actually went lower than my original stop level
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USD CAD short trigger
Daily chart just printed a long tail/wick candle of a 'shooting star'' type, indicating rejection of higher prices at this time at an area of previous swing highs on the daily timeframe
I have placed an order to short this pair @ 1.02 30 with a stop above the daily high at 1.03 25 (-95 pips risk)
T1= R1 @ 1.01 35
T2 = recent daily low @ 1.00 30 (+200 pips, R=2)
Daily chart just printed a long tail/wick candle of a 'shooting star'' type, indicating rejection of higher prices at this time at an area of previous swing highs on the daily timeframe
I have placed an order to short this pair @ 1.02 30 with a stop above the daily high at 1.03 25 (-95 pips risk)
T1= R1 @ 1.01 35
T2 = recent daily low @ 1.00 30 (+200 pips, R=2)
Re: USD CAD short trigger
Watching for resistance to be tested as support, for a long trigger
Daily trigger candle invalidated (price has broken the tail of the candle and closed decisively higher. Orders removed!
Watching for resistance to be tested as support, for a long trigger
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AUD USD long trigger (counter trend)
Both the daily and 4 hour time-frame indicators are short
However, price has reached a significant support level on the weekly chart (0.95 70) and printed a daily candle that indicates rejection of lower prices at this time, due to its long tail / wick
I have placed an order to enter this market long @ 0.96 70 with a stop at 0.95 25 (-150 pips risk) and target at R1 0.98 20 and T2 at parity (being between the 50% and 61.8% re-tracement of the recent daily down swing) (R=2 if achieved)
I would usually place my order about 50% back into the daily candle, to reduce the stop size and increase the potential R (risk / reward ratio). However price has already re-tested the 50% area overnight / during the Asian session and I missed the last excellent long trigger on this pair (March 4th) because I had placed my order at the 50% re-tracement into the daily trigger candle and price did not pull back to open my order
Both the daily and 4 hour time-frame indicators are short
However, price has reached a significant support level on the weekly chart (0.95 70) and printed a daily candle that indicates rejection of lower prices at this time, due to its long tail / wick
I have placed an order to enter this market long @ 0.96 70 with a stop at 0.95 25 (-150 pips risk) and target at R1 0.98 20 and T2 at parity (being between the 50% and 61.8% re-tracement of the recent daily down swing) (R=2 if achieved)
I would usually place my order about 50% back into the daily candle, to reduce the stop size and increase the potential R (risk / reward ratio). However price has already re-tested the 50% area overnight / during the Asian session and I missed the last excellent long trigger on this pair (March 4th) because I had placed my order at the 50% re-tracement into the daily trigger candle and price did not pull back to open my order
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Results Summary
The outstanding Aprils positions (post #713 CAD JPY) have now all closed
May has an outstanding position. Of the two trades made, one achieved R1 on the first half and the other was a loser, thus a net loss at present of 0.5R (roughly £100, as my standard risk is £200)
2013 to May +16%:
The outstanding Aprils positions (post #713 CAD JPY) have now all closed
May has an outstanding position. Of the two trades made, one achieved R1 on the first half and the other was a loser, thus a net loss at present of 0.5R (roughly £100, as my standard risk is £200)
2013 to May +16%:
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resistance
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I think the stops should be beyond those strong levels because there are more chances that market will reverse from those level and it will hurt if it reverses after touching your stops.
