S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

todays chart for dax.
pattern A was not taken because of the proximity to the days low. It failed to reach it target but only by a whisker after bouncing off the days low a couple of times.
pattern B was not taken for the same reason. It would have reached its target.
pattern C actually just made a new low at 2 and then provided a trigger at 4 so would have been a valid signal had i not left in a historical trendline that i considered still held some weight. That too would have made its target.
3 completed patterns on dax, 2 targets hit, no trades for me.

The ftse chart is virtually identical so i haven't bothered posting it today.
So altogether 6 completed patterns in total, 4 targets hit but no trades taken.

I have to say its been a little frustrating in the last few days so watch all these targets get hit after going through my lines. However, I do keep score of all the targets reached vs just the ones i have taken. The results indicate that had i taken every single trigger regardless of s/r, i would have made 12 pips less over the course of the last 6 months so its a lot of extra work that i'm saving for no. On other days, momentum won't be enough to puncture the walls and thats when i avoid the losses as opposed to managing to avoid the profits as you keep seeing!:eek: Having said that, the most important aspect of my stategy was to avoid losses first and hope the profit would look after itself and in that, it does seem to work and my progress is steady and reliable. It does illustrate though that when pa is approaching some potential problem area and these patterns are starting to appear, how dangerous it might be to go in the other direction. But i think everyone knew that anyway. :)

splashy said:
I won't make a habit of posting these up but i'll put up a couple in case people are curious...
Click to expand...

Well, thats enough from me guys, i'm not really a journal kinda guy and these charts are a pain to annotate. Just thought i'd add something to the general knowledge of this august forum! In the meantime, thanks for the use of your airspace.:cheesy:
happy trading
 

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tomorton said:
Meantime, yopur approach on this is very clean. The placement of s/r levels and trend lines is always going to be controversial - I do see s/r levels as being fixed and objective - I notice you use the daily H and L established during the session, i.e. ignoring the overnight price action - is this not relevant also?
Click to expand...

I have no problem with controversy:clap:. Mr belbin has me pegged as a plant, 16pf as high on M and myers briggs as INTP so i'm at my happiest when i'm flying in the face of public opinion.:cheesy:
I do take note of overnight highs and lows but i may decide not to trade them depending on the pattern they leave behind. On the other hand, as in todays dax, i had originally drawn a line of support for the o/n lows but it was taken out within the first half hour of trading. Since i don't trade that first half hour, i had to move my daily low on my chart and it might look like i had ignored the o/n low.

I agree with you that s/r etc is objective. I think we probably all understand what past events can cause problem areas in the future re pa. But you only have to look at any daily chart for any instrument on any day, ever, to see how often s/r is breached and trend lines overcome. For me then, drawing in all the areas that MAY have potential problem is only addressing half the problem. In a perfect world, the answer is to take the next step and somehow take note only of the areas that WILL cause the problem and ignore the rest.
Can this be done effectively, even with subscription services etc? I don't know, but the challenge for me is to base it on what i see on the chart and i love a challenge. Can i increase the odds in my favour? Perhaps, and thats what i'm trying to do just by selecting which areas i think are the most likely to cause me problems and filtering out certain others. Thats why i don't fill my chart with all the lines that others might use - i'm just working what i consider to be greater probabilities. Time will tell if i have any success. Do other people do it? Don't know but if they have a system that pays, good for them. If anyone else took on this way of trading they would adapt it to suit themselves as i have and would achieve different results, perhaps better perhaps worse. In the meantime, this is my football and i'll choose who plays! :D
So s/r etc is indeed objective, but the use of them can be subjective and that is why my lines are discretionary and will almost certainly not be the same as anyone else's.

I have a project in mind to create some measure of a trends potential strength so that i can allocate a 'weight' to a potential problem area. I know how i'm going to approach it and i'm very excited by it but finding the time is a real nightmare cos it won't be a quick thing. I don't want to jinx it by going into detail here but if it has legs i'll post something eventually. If i'm talking crap, you'll never hear of it again! :whistling

Incidentally, i would be very interested to see these patterns with no s/r or trendlines drawn in at all, but just traded against pivot points instead, or against fib levels instead just to see the results.
(y)
 
splashy said:
Well, thats enough from me guys, i'm not really a journal kinda guy and these charts are a pain to annotate. Just thought i'd add something to the general knowledge of this august forum! In the meantime, thanks for the use of your airspace.:cheesy:
happy trading
Click to expand...

Anytime splashy, anytime. :cool:(y)
 
4:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.4% 2.8% 2.8%
4:30am GBP RPI y/y 2.8% 3.0% 3.1%
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 2.1% 2.3% 2.2%
4:30am GBP HPI y/y 2.3% 1.3% 1.4%
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -17.3 -16.9
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -18.3 -20.1
5:00am GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
8:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.7% -0.8%
8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.0% -0.3%
9:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
9:00am CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% 1.00%
9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 45.7B 25.6B
9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 79.2% 79.0%
9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.4% -0.1%
10:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
10:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 30 29
1:15pm USD FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks
7:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
8:30pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.5%
 
Nothing for me to do pre-market, really - I still see the same secenarios playing out as yesterday as we haven't really made a move yet.
 
17th July

Will be adjusting charts down to 500 tick today to take into account sluggish moves.

Asia up, Europe up except UK.

7-16-20129-05-13AM.png


Same opinion as yesterday (same chart as yesterday!). I see most likely that we are biased upside until we breakl above either the short term or intermediate term balance areas.

Things to look out for

1 – Climb up off the open to be rejected off the ONH 1355 area – we’ve had 5 attempts at this, so the bounce will probably be a stop run through 1355 before any reversal.
2 – If we do move down off the open, then 1347.25 yesterdays close & 1346 overnight lows are good places for a reversal up
3 – Hitting the reference points from yesterday above value - 1362, 1365, 1366.75,1370 will also be looking for shorts

Shorts – 1355, 1362, 1366.75, 1370
Longs 1347.14, 13546

Now watch the news reaction walk all over these areas…..
 
I mean is that since the contract was tradeable or is it tailored to cover a specified period through settings e.g. 3 days, a week, whatever
 
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