Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

mark120169 said:
I have just had a reply by email from RH.....he made it the same as me, MA was to undesisive today so he called a "No Trade" day. Although MNT banked for those that did trade it to keep comparison results "like for like" I wont be adding todays MNT or INT wins to my running tally's as to keep the comparison's fair they should all have no trade days.

M
Click to expand...

Long time lurker, first time caller....

I dont understand why you dont stick to vanilla NT as from what I have seen on this thread a couple of other posters have carried out, what looks like, pretty extensive back testing and demonstrated that the other variations are probalby not as profitable as NT over the long term.
I notice as well that there are some new posts here from people who have only started trading NT in the last 5 or 6 weeks or so and they are already considering changing or adding to the system with the other variations. Consistency is the key here I think. And, correct me if I am wrong, but the other variations have a very poor risk to reward which stacks the odds against you in achieving a positive expectancy over the long term. Why would you ever consider trading a system with an average negative risk to reward. It puts a savage amount of pressure on you to be right...
 
Hogs said:
Long time lurker, first time caller....

I dont understand why you dont stick to vanilla NT as from what I have seen on this thread a couple of other posters have carried out, what looks like, pretty extensive back testing and demonstrated that the other variations are probalby not as profitable as NT over the long term.
I notice as well that there are some new posts here from people who have only started trading NT in the last 5 or 6 weeks or so and they are already considering changing or adding to the system with the other variations. Consistency is the key here I think. And, correct me if I am wrong, but the other variations have a very poor risk to reward which stacks the odds against you in achieving a positive expectancy over the long term. Why would you ever consider trading a system with an average negative risk to reward. It puts a savage amount of pressure on you to be right...
Click to expand...

Because it is now proven from Feb , May and June 2010 vanilla NT results that NT just does not perform in volitile markets, especially when the Euro is going nuts, which it will again when the next PIIGS country has debt problems attacked by the markets. This is why NT results are so poor for these months. The main culprit is not the NT system but the 50 pip limit not being hit before a trade reverses into a loss or stops out.

If you are happy with NT results for these months then that is your choice. In fact if you are happy with NT since you started then great. Everyone understands the risk of the variants, and also the limitations of vanilla NT.

-3 pips official NT figures for my first 5 weeks with NT and only +20 pips for the first weeks of june are clearly showing the limitations of net trap. If you want to beleive you will suddenly start gaining the +250 pip, +400 pip months of last summer advertised when we invested in the sysyem then you keep the belief, I am right with you as I won't be dropping NT (just adding the 33 sell stop).

But I have a desire to evolve and find something that as a system banks more consistantly, bit follows the same principle. I have already made the commitment two weeks ago on here to stick with TNT 60/60 until it depletes my pot by 20% that NT alone would not have.

The fact that we have quite a few variant trialers much more experienced than me shows that there is some beleif and logic in the varients.

Anyway, good luck to all those who want to remain true to NT, the variant progress will be logged and sumerised from now on and if it goes wrong some time you can feel happy you did not stray, if in six months time varients are 50%+ ahead of NT despite the higher risks on paper you can think "what if".

It's all about freedom of choice.

M

p.s. NT official total for 2010 (Jan to May) is +426 pips, only 85 pips a month average.

I have banked 128.6 pips from NT (with tweaks) in the last 26 trades and also banked +20 pips in the last two weeks with MNT, would have been 40 more if I had known about the 27 pip sell stop problem.

I am happy so far and understand the risks, but I would not be happy with 20 pips.
 
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mark120169 said:
Because it is now proven from Feb , May and June 2010 vanilla NT results that NT just does not perform in volitile markets, especially when the Euro is going nuts, which it will again when the next PIIGS country has debt problems attacked by the markets. This is why NT results are so poor for these months. The main culprit is not the NT system but the 50 pip limit not being hit before a trade reverses into a loss or stops out.

If you are happy with NT results for these months then that is your choice. In fact if you are happy with NT since you started then great. Everyone understands the risk of the variants, and also the limitations of vanilla NT.

-3 pips official NT figures for my first 5 weeks with NT and only +20 pips for the first weeks of june are clearly showing the limitations of net trap. If you want to beleive you will suddenly start gaining the +250 pip, +400 pip months of last summer advertised when we invested in the sysyem then you keep the belief, I am right with you as I won't be dropping NT (just adding the 33 sell stop).

But I have a desire to evolve and find something that as a system banks more consistantly, bit follows the same principle. I have already made the commitment two weeks ago on here to stick with TNT 60/60 until it depletes my pot by 20% that NT alone would not have.

The fact that we have quite a few variant trialers much more experienced than me shows that there is some beleif and logic in the varients.

Anyway, good luck to all those who want to remain true to NT, the variant progress will be logged and sumerised from now on and if it goes wrong some time you can feel happy you did not stray, if in six months time varients are 50%+ ahead of NT despite the higher risks on paper you can think "what if".

It's all about freedom of choice.

M

p.s. NT official total for 2010 (Jan to May) is +426 pips, only 85 pips a month average.

I have banked 128.6 pips from NT (with tweaks) in the last 26 trades and also banked +20 pips in the last two weeks with MNT, would have been 40 more if I had known about the 27 pip sell stop problem.

I am happy so far and understand the risks, but I would not be happy with 20 pips.
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I thought 4% risk per trade was bad enough, but being prepared to trade a system until it depletes your account by 20% rather than just thoroughly back testing it just strikes me as reckless.
 
Mr Index said:
I thought 4% risk per trade was bad enough, but being prepared to trade a system until it depletes your account by 20% rather than just thoroughly back testing it just strikes me as reckless.
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Back testing can't predict the future, only give an indication of how it might have done, and no back testing by various peeps has shown MNT to run at a loss.

How many people would have invested in NT from it's 2010 results to date? £247 for a system that has only banked 426 pips with a drawdown month too?

I would have not gone for it.

M

p.s 20% is £300 for me......not exactly life changing sum to lose, I only tried this as I can afford to lose the whole £1500 if needed. Not every one is on £10+ a pip.
 
Quite strange discussion !

Put things into perspective people - say a system delivers an average of 50 pips a month. If the risk is 3% per trade and the Stop is 30 pips this is, give or take, a 5% return per month or 60% a year without any compounding at all.

Sometimes the discussions on t2w boards are beyond belief - yes everyone is entitled to an opinion - It would just be great if a little more thought went into some posts.

This is not a defense of NT it is simply a fact that should be considered when evaluating any system, especially one that requires very little effort.

For me London Forex Open and Net Trap satisfy some of the above criteria - But nothing in trading will ever be guaranteed as if it was none of us would be posting here. And, there would not be, how many is it? 6 versions of the system now! Buy/Devise a system and trade it by the rules. Hope this post helps some people.

W
 
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mark120169 said:
Back testing can't predict the future, only give an indication of how it might have done, and no back testing by various peeps has shown MNT to run at a loss.

How many people would have invested in NT from it's 2010 results to date? £247 for a system that has only banked 426 pips with a drawdown month too?

I would have not gone for it.

M

p.s 20% is £300 for me......not exactly life changing sum to lose, I only tried this as I can afford to lose the whole £1500 if needed. Not every one is on £10+ a pip.
Click to expand...

20% is still 20% of your account. Whether its 20% of a £1500 pound account or 20% of a £70,000 pound account. Surely you need to treat every penny of your account as precious capital regardless of the size? I don't understand how you can state you can lose 100% of your trading bank.

For some people reading this thread £1500 may be a "life changing sum to lose". I value every penny me.

And, the flip side is that some of us are trading heavy and greater than £10 a pip - seeing as you brought it up. The idea of testing an idea and whimsically accepting a 20% drawdown is nonsense. Saying that you "can afford to lose the whole £1500" is completely gun slinger in my opinion.

You mention a draw down month above as if it should be a surprise to anyone who trades. Drawdowns are a fact of life. Period. Drawdown months, or even a couple of back to back drawdown months, are almost guaranteed in this game.

And you are absolutely correct: "back testing can't predict the future". But it can give you a reasonable indication of the risk distribution and expectancy of the methodhttp://www.iitm.com/sm-Expectancy.htm.

Bottom line, I'd not put a single penny of my hard earned cash into a method with a negative risk to reward and back (or forward) tested over a couple of months. But you are right, as you said in an earlier post: "It's all about freedom of choice"

By the way: "£247 for a system that has only banked 426 pips" is a no brainer to me...
 
Trader333 said:
I expect that it will be too much to expect Graeme to list all those who he wants to have prior access. So you will need to apply by selecting "Group Memberships" which is found in your "User Control Panel" or by clicking this link:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/profile.php?do=editusergroups

Graeme will then have a list of people who have applied and will have the option to allow or disallow.

I would suggest to Graeme that he asks people who want to join to prove they are members of FNT in their application by making them state something from one of the pages of the manual which should be included in the application to join. It can be something quite simple and if not included then don't permit membership. It cannot be the responsibility of Graeme to chase people for this and if they don't include it then they don't get in.


Paul
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Hi all. is the link for NT set up yet? pat
 
pseudo straddle said:
In my opinion - if that is the case they shouldn't even be contemplating gambling in any way, shape or form.

:cry:
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I completly agree pseudo straddle. But with the availabily of micro accounts, there are traders who are trading with a 1500 pound bank. So, essentially, lossing 1500 would represent ruin for them. Or at least their account.

But, point taken, you should probably not be in the game if a wipe out of 1500 quid will mean not paying the rent or make a dent in your day to day life.

Saying that. Regardless of your account size, you should act and treat it as if its a six figure account. Thats pretty much the point I was trying to make above.
 
Hi,

You've encouraged me to 'toy' with the rules.. Does anyone have a record of what the MA difference was on each day from the first candle to the closing candle?

I'm thinking of basing the %risk on the strength of the MA, so something like when its under 'x' difference risk 1%, over 'y' risk 3% (or whatever) and in between risk 2%

The idea being to balance the risk against the strength of the immediate trend, when the force is strong Luke, go with it, when its not, hold back..

thoughts?
 
wilczek said:
Quite strange discussion !

Put things into perspective people - say a system delivers an average of 50 pips a month. If the risk is 3% per trade and the Stop is 30 pips this is, give or take, a 5% return per month or 60% a year without any compounding at all.

Sometimes the discussions on t2w boards are beyond belief - yes everyone is entitled to an opinion - It would just be great if a little more thought went into some posts.

This is not a defense of NT it is simply a fact that should be considered when evaluating any system, especially one that requires very little effort.

For me London Forex Open and Net Trap satisfy some of the above criteria - But nothing in trading will ever be guaranteed as if it was none of us would be posting here. And, there would not be, how many is it? 6 versions of the system now! Buy/Devise a system and trade it by the rules. Hope this post helps some people.

W
Click to expand...
I agree with you but the fact that people are starting to change parts of the system is a sign that they are evolving into self thinking traders and coming up with your own system is always a good sign. (y)
 
pseudo straddle said:
In my opinion - if that is the case they shouldn't even be contemplating gambling in any way, shape or form.

:cry:
Click to expand...

You can only use money you can aford to loose! Saying that I started with £500 in an account and go 50p a point because at the moment I'm learning how to trade not just with this system but others aswell. The way I see it people watching a bit of wall street reading a strategy and then throwing money they don't have at it is financial suicide. I measure my success by the number of points gained not by cash gains but I must admit I need to keep a diary so I know where I have gained and lost points
 
piphead said:
I agree with you but the fact that people are starting to change parts of the system is a sign that they are evolving into self thinking traders and coming up with your own system is always a good sign. (y)
Click to expand...

True - It also demonstrates that they cannot follow a set of trading rules or it shows a lack of faith in a system. Either case, stop trading or at least stop trading a system you dont have faith in. Note, again, this is not just specific to Net Trap, have a look at the Rebellion thread, the Sniper thread, the LMT thread, many many suggestions of do this do that, blah blah blah, how many of these people from say, 6 months ago are still going strong, still reporting results, with their tweaked system, NONE (I stand to be corrected of course and I am sure I will be given isolated examples - It would for sure be a board I will be joining if I am proven wrong! I happened upon this one by chance and just had to say something - sorry!).

The only reason I am posting this thread is in an attempt to help those new to trading not get caught up in what is, in the main, nonsense, loss making approaches to trading (yes, even if you do just have £1,500 - If so, do not worry too much, as long as its a part time occupation, in time you could very easily grow this to a sizable account - Take for example - my previous mail - a 5% return a month is 60% a year without compounding - In 5 years .... You do the sums - So don't be put off - If you enjoy it, you can fit in, then with discipline and sticking to the rules with a nice 5% return a month, you could make it (so to speak)).

Hope the post is of help to some.

W
 
Looking like another no trade day. m.a. has been flat 6 candles in a row from 4.45am. Any thoughts?
 
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