Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

I do think the return you go for with MNT needs to relate in some way with the days high or low or strong areas of support or resistance and go for a minimum of 10 pips.

This is what I have been doing and it's working well, so far in June it's 182 pips up with 11 winning days, 4 no trade days and 0 losing days.

It is open to personal interpretation as to what level of profit to go for but I'm sure there are traders with more experience than me using this forum who shouldn't have any problems setting these levels.
 
DaxM said:
Hello all,

My first post, so a little background...

I was a full time trader from Sept 09 to April 10, using techniques learnt from Trade with Precision and Expert4X. Mainly skill based trading, which I wasn't wildly successful at. I started a new full time job in April, so decided to try the Net trap system. My results are broadly in line with the overall system, ie 38 trades from April 8th, with a 55% win rate. I'm up about 200 points, so not too shabby, but like so many others, I have been frustrated by the fairly simplistic method of exits. I liked the MNT which Mark suggested a few weeks ago but felt the R/R a little high, so decided to look at the 15 point target. YOu would need a 66% win rate for MNT to break even which seemed acheivable.

I have detailed records since April 8th, so looking over at that date range, MNT would have traded 38 times, with 29 winners, or a 76% success rate. MNT would have added 165 points to the total. So the results for MNT are not at good as NT, but the strength is combining both together as TNT, as Mark has already suggested.

If is use a standard £10 a point trade size, according to my results, NT would have yielded £2040. NT & MNT (TNT) with both at £10 a point would have given £3570. But, this is double the risk on every trade, and not double the return. The combined win rate of TNT is 61% vs 55% of NT, but the average win is smaller, which results in the lower overall performance.

Looking at this data, you could conclude that you should drop TNT, in favour of NT. However, the results are only comparable on equal investment levels. I would be uncomfortable putting down 4% risk on every trade, but don't mind putting down the additional 2% on MNT due to it's much higher win rate. So my conclusion is that I will use TNT with a combined 4% investment level. My MNT target is 15 points.

That's my input.
If you do create a private forum, I would be keen to join as I read these threads every day.
DaxM
Click to expand...

Flippin hell, I do have secret MNT / TNT fans trading the system. Feel quite touched now on what I stumbled on and championed. Dax you seem to get exactly what my thoughts are with TNT.

I too have noticed a possible higher return overall going 4% MM with NT but am much more at ease going 4% MM with TNT 60/60. However there are periods where TNT actually out performs NT @ 4%, especailly the periods when NT suffers like 17/5/10 to 4/6/10.

M
 
Hi all. Was very tempted to sit and watch the screen today but resisted and came back at 8.30 and had a -3 loss, missed out on the 7am high! Then again maybe i would of been to greedy and let it go past 7 high still lost. Pat
 
greenraiderskee said:
Hi all. Was very tempted to sit and watch the screen today but resisted and came back at 8.30 and had a -3 loss, missed out on the 7am high! Then again maybe i would of been to greedy and let it go past 7 high still lost. Pat
Click to expand...

Did the same today, recently I've been working early and keep an eye on how it goes. Today I placed and watched till about 7.15, and drifted off asleep again - wouldn't you know it - but I wouldn't have started trailing the stop till gone 8 anyway. I only lost 2 pips though :p - you gotta be faster on that mouse!
 
mark120169 said:
This is vanilla MNT with the standard 30 stop just for June. Unfortunately the two sell orders that stopped out in June have given vanilla MNT a -90 loss run offsetting the +110 pips wins to only +20 including today.

However, going back to when I started recording all data to the 17/5/10 the vanilla MNT is sitting @ + 59 pips.

But I still think it is now good practice to use at least a 33 sell stop (33S) . It seems "buy" orders catch MNT out far less than "Sell" orders. With the MNT 33S the figures are much better.

June TD MNT 33S +100 pips

17/5/10 to date MNT 33S +139 pips. (21 trades, 19 wins +190 pips , 2 losses -51 pips , net gain +139 pips, 91% bank rate to date).

I don't have the data to back test MNT33S to June 09. But it is safe to assume that on good vanilla NT months MNT33S will keep a high bank rate as if NT wins, MNT wins. It's more important to back test how MNT33S performs on poor NT months.

What I do find interesting is no one has come forward and admitted thay have back tested MNT / MNT33S and declared it a risky failure. Maybe some lurkers here have done such an exercise and seen fauvourable results so are keeping stum? :devilish:

M
Click to expand...

I am open minded on it, it's just that you have been running for 5 weeks only...
On sell days, both MNT and NT are 33 SL's values - thats what caught RH on Thursday, but I was pleased to see RH win on Wednesday, as some of us said (me included), it was only just technically a trade, yet most of us didn't bother (me included :(). There's life in the old NT dog yet!
 
MikesDirect said:
G'day Sirs!

It seems to me that MNT is 'the way to go' for a consistently performing system. However, I think it may prove more profitable by raising the +10 Limit (although it may be better to leave it where it is as this is a great daily profit if it can be consistently achieved).

The question is what to re-set the Limit to? Maybe +15 or slightly higher? Maybe a back-test of MNT @ +15 might prove worth while?

As for the creation of a Private Forum, the fact is that the NT, MNT & TNT systems (plus variants) have already been clearly revealed in this Forum (simply by back-reading all posts). I personally think it would be a shame to split this Forum regardless of who has paid for NT and who hasn't (£247 'should' prove to be small pocket change if the 'systems' live up to their beautiful claims). Just my humble opinion.

Regards to all,
Mike
Click to expand...

I've done some back testing on forex tester for the first 6 months of 2009 of MNT against NT but with a 15 pip target target for MNT rather than 10. Obviously I can't comment on the 10 target, and the results may be way better for this, but with the 15pip target the results are very poor.

The results are in dollars for 3 standard lots.

2009 Jan Feb March April May June Total

NT 1860 8700 1200 6630 -660 9000 26,730

MNT 450 3600 -1350 450 -1740 1800 3200

I'll test the 10 pip target against the same period when I get some time.

W.
 
Wagtail said:
I've done some back testing on forex tester for the first 6 months of 2009 of MNT against NT but with a 15 pip target target for MNT rather than 10. Obviously I can't comment on the 10 target, and the results may be way better for this, but with the 15pip target the results are very poor.

The results are in dollars for 3 standard lots.

2009 Jan Feb March April May June Total

NT 1860 8700 1200 6630 -660 9000 26,730

MNT 450 3600 -1350 450 -1740 1800 3200

I'll test the 10 pip target against the same period when I get some time.


W.
Click to expand...

Sorry the results are all squashed up, they were spaced nicely before I submitted them, but end result $26,730 for net trap and $3200 for MNT with 15 target.

W.
 
OK. 5 weeks NT / MNT / TNT results & June 1st 3 week results. Also added in MNT33S and TNT 60/60 (33S) results too for comparison.

RH results for last week now in and I yet again had broadly the same entry's as RH but he has cocked up his data for thurs 17th as e has put down a buy @ 14591 rather than a sell @ 14691 but he did record a -30 pip loss. However my weekly results are much better than RH. (y)

So all those who again cried over spilt milk for Thursday 17th June cruel -30 pips loss, so did RH! Just change your sell stop to 33 already!

Results are :

Last 5 full weeks (Since I started NT) 17/5/10 to 18/6/10.

RH NT -3 pips (not good)

M120169 NT +132.1 pips (NT+D rules)

MNT +60 pips (You gotta love MNT on volitile months)

MNT 33S +129 pips (You gotta love MNT 33S even more)

TNT (RH) +57 pips (MNT would have rescued vanilla NT this last 5 weeks)

TNT 60/60 (33S) (M120169) +261 (Much much better than RH vanilla NT, theoreticaly correct, only traded last 2 weeks live)

1st 3 weeks June 1/6/10 - 18/6/10

RH NT +20 pips (not good again)

M120169 NT +91.6 (NT+D rules)

MNT +10 (ok took three max losses last week se just behind NT now)

MNT 33S +100 pips (Now that's good squishy)

TNT RH +30 (MNT would have helped make gains in the first 3/4 june)

TNT 60/60 (33S) (M120169) +191.6 (Much much better than RH vanilla NT, theoreticaly correct, only traded last 2 weeks live)


And finaly the last 26 days trading including today

RH NT +16 pips (theoretical)

M120169 NT +128.6 (NT +D beating RH at his own game)

MNT +59 (43 pips ahead of NT still!)

MNT 33S +139 (way, way ahead of RH NT)

TNT RH +75 (MNT would have made RH results much better)

TNT 60/60 (33S) M120169 +267.6 ( creaming vanilla NT by 251.6 pips)


My conclusion still stands......... it took a bad run to spot NT main fault, and develop MNT, yes MNT RR Ratio alone is risky but in practice so far it saves NT on bad volitile forex months (Euro problems mostly) and greatly increases NT results when NT is on song (this week so far). Also MNT33S is a much better and profitable product.

Just to point out a comment DAX made earlier. His figures going back to april show that @ 4%MM NT vs TNT 60/60 (30s) is close but maths wise NT would be more profitable. Now lets look at the period I have been trading. NT vs TNT 60/60 (33s). No comparrison due to a rubbish 3 week run by NT. NT @ 4% MM would be +32 pips (2 x 16), where as TNT60/60 (33S) is running @ +267.6 pips.

Plenty of TNT traders nows on various versions. NT is on a recovery now, I wish I had thought of MNT33S week 1 of me trading but having never ever traded forex or spreadbetted ever I think I have done good so far.

So for me i'm still TNT 60/60 (33S) daily now 4% MM becasue If NT is back on song again gains will ramp up, but if NT slips and struggles again soon MNT33S will help it not drag into large losing months.

Thanks all for listening still :innocent:

M
 
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Wagtail said:
I've done some back testing on forex tester for the first 6 months of 2009 of MNT against NT but with a 15 pip target target for MNT rather than 10. Obviously I can't comment on the 10 target, and the results may be way better for this, but with the 15pip target the results are very poor.

The results are in dollars for 3 standard lots.

2009 Jan Feb March April May June Total

NT 1860 8700 1200 6630 -660 9000 26,730

MNT 450 3600 -1350 450 -1740 1800 3200

I'll test the 10 pip target against the same period when I get some time.

W.
Click to expand...

We are more interested in the last 6 months from June 09, from when official NT started trialing.

Also I did various short back tests with MNT before plumping for 10 pips as I felt it offered the best consistant results. Does forex tester allow you to set the same NT 15 min time frame? Because so far live and recent history back testing (5 weeks) it appears that MNT will often bank on days NT goes into a loss, as it is out of the trade banked before the loss can happen.

Remember the simple rule for MNT back tests. If NT banks anything, so will MNT, just to a max of 10 pips as it follows the same rules. My advice would be to run the data for NT. Then calculate the MNT wins vs the NT wins, then only look @ MNT on the NT losing days an calculate the gains / losses of MNT on those days. Then add them to the MNT total for NT winning days to give a MNT grand total, that is the correct way to work out a MNT back test.

M
 
INT (Instant Net Trap) is also very profitable, and beats vanilla NT hands-down.

So far in June, INT has lost just 35 points but made +265 points profit.
 
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goldfinger777 said:
INT (Instant Net Trap) is also very profitable, and beats vanilla NT hands-down.

So far in June, INT has lost just 35 points but made +265 points profit.
Click to expand...

According to my back testing INT is also running @ +237 pips for the last 26 trading days, assuming you trade INT every day that is not a "No Trade" day under NT rules.

(Which GF777 doesn't...........chicken!) :p

M
 
mark120169 said:
We are more interested in the last 6 months from June 09, from when official NT started trialing.

Also I did various short back tests with MNT before plumping for 10 pips as I felt it offered the best consistant results. Does forex tester allow you to set the same NT 15 min time frame? Because so far live and recent history back testing (5 weeks) it appears that MNT will often bank on days NT goes into a loss, as it is out of the trade banked before the loss can happen.

Remember the simple rule for MNT back tests. If NT banks anything, so will MNT, just to a max of 10 pips as it follows the same rules. My advice would be to run the data for NT. Then calculate the MNT wins vs the NT wins, then only look @ MNT on the NT losing days an calculate the gains / losses of MNT on those days. Then add them to the MNT total for NT winning days to give a MNT grand total, that is the correct way to work out a MNT back test.

M
Click to expand...

Yes, I will be testing further months. Have to start somewhere. The back testing on forex tester are taken manually and mirror exactly as if trading live on the 15 min time frame (it is modelled on MT4). The results for this time period are the same as would have been if trading live and are accurate results for mnt with a 15 pip target. Obviously, this could just have been a terrible period for mnt and not representative of recent times, but my view is that I want to be trading this for a long time as it's a good mechanical system, so testing this in different market conditions is valuable in deternining the risk I'm willing to take.

Incidentally, for the same period, and the same risk, I took 1/3 off at 15 pips, 1/3 at 30, and the remiander at 45. This earned $12,320. However, I noticed that, if it got to 30, on many occaisions it carried on to 45 any way, so the changed this to 1/3 off at, 15 pips, and left the remainin 2/3 targeting the full 50 pips. This earned $23,050, which is pretty close to the original net trap.

W.
 
mark120169 said:
According to my back testing INT is also running @ +237 pips for the last 26 trading days, assuming you trade INT every day that is not a "No Trade" day under NT rules.

(Which GF777 doesn't...........chicken!) :p

M
Click to expand...

Since you are risking 4% of your bank with TNT, with a potential loss of 60 points a day, you could run a dual INT system with the same 60 points risk every day, except that you would have made +474 points in the last 26 trading days.
 
Personally I think there's a very good case for running MNT and INT together, to create MINT (as somebody else has also suggested). The only caveat being that you'd need a 33pt stop on sell days.

I think MINT would beat the NT system and all other variants discussed so far.
 
goldfinger777 said:
Personally I think there's a very good case for running MNT and INT together, to create MINT (as somebody else has also suggested). The only caveat being that you'd need a 33pt stop on sell days.

I think MINT would beat the NT system and all other variants discussed so far.
Click to expand...

what is int
 
You clearly misunderstand my intentions Sir! I am in no way advocating theft and I take issue with any suggestion that I am. I am merely pointing out the unscrupulous nature of the 'human condition'.
Click to expand...

My apologies if I had misunderstood your intentions


Paul
 
goldfinger777 said:
Personally I think there's a very good case for running MNT and INT together, to create MINT (as somebody else has also suggested). The only caveat being that you'd need a 33pt stop on sell days.

I think MINT would beat the NT system and all other variants discussed so far.
Click to expand...

Nope. You need to put you naming cap on again Goldfinger. MINT is Peter's tag for Denmans accidential MNT variation.

Denman last week entered a MNT (10 limit) trade at the market and banked very quickly rather than using the NT entry system, hence Peterf1966 named it MINT (Mini Instant Net Trap) once we had figured out what Denman did to bank so quickly.

M
 
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