Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

[goldfinger777]

What did you set your stop to? By trailing today I would have got this, if I had bothered.

A strange week, some NT, some TNT, some MNT, as I try this that and the other with the free money. Oh for the good old days

Stop is still 30 pts. No trailing stop. But because you enter "at the market" rather than with an order, you have the advantage of the few extra points in your favour as there is no slippage.

 

[goldfinger777]

I also have one NT adapted system that has a quite scary RR ratio but would have also banked +123 pips in the last week!

I'm sure between us we will come up with something as in my mind NT is still struggling in the 2010 market compared to 2009 launch when in flew for the first four months.

M

I'd be interested to hear about your other NT adapted system Mark. I agree with you that NT seems to be struggling a little recently (although it's still pretty profitable with a decent stake size). I think one month last year it got over 400 pts in one month! I think if it could do that every month there'd be no need to tweak the system!

As you say hopefully between us we'll be able to come up with something that beats NT every time by reducing the losses

 

[goldfinger777]

BTW I'm also paper trading the NT system against EUR/USD everyday, will be interesting to see how that works out. Will let you know at the end of the month how it worked out for June.

 

[Claviceps]

Think I'm with you Claviceps the %adge trade today was to wait and look for a signal to sell.
Sold at the open of the 8.45 candle going to ride it down to 1.4655 fingers crossed.

Hi, got my 50 hope you got yours - Teddy Bears picnic today -just knew they would be after their profits before the weekend.

 

[Gregus83]

I got +25 pts today, like many of you I looked at support and resistance and really couldn't see it going to +50 so restricted my limit to +25.

I'm currently backtesting a slightly different approach to TNT that I think will be more profitable and less hassle in the long run. Basically, exactly the same rules as normal NT, but always trade at the market rather than placing orders, and always set your limit to 25. This week this approach would've prevented the loss on Monday and bagged you +125 pts for the week. That's pretty damn good in my opinion.

I call this approach "INT" or "Instant Net Trap" because you get in the market immediately rather than placing orders, and also generally get out again quicker than standard NT.

I need to do more testing but I will keep us Net Trappers informed of the results over the next few weeks.

I'm starting to come round to this way of thinking as well with the market entry except with using the TNT 75/25 strategy. I think the market entry greatly enhances the success of the 10-pip MNT which if achieved allows for a BE at worst. Rewards not as high on winning trades but more consistent is how I feel about it at the moment.

I haven't looked at backtesting but I think a couple of the losing trades earlier in the week would have resulted in this fashion.

 

[stevepatt]

Hi, got my 50 hope you got yours - Teddy Bears picnic today -just knew they would be after their profits before the weekend.

Got out at 1.4655 for 55 pips.

Everything was pointing towards a reversal this morning it pays to play the %adges.

I wonder if anyone would have been tweaking Net Trap back in September 09 after it had made +965 points in three months that's over 50% of the yearly return in three months.

 

[mark120169]

CMC markets also have a week free spread betting offer on at the mo, seems unlimited trades during one week, where you keep profit, they cover loss, but it's £2pip max, and it's only for trades after 8am, so no good for NT. Worth a look I feel.

I looked into this and talked to CMC, their "1 week cover all losses" offer is only for their "UK 100" , not forex, and the UK 100 basically tracks the FTSE 100.

M

 

[MikesDirect]

G'day NTers (not pronounced "Nutters" honest), MNTers TNTers or even INTers!

Well it's the Forums' official observer here (or should that be unofficial)!

Guys, regarding MNT ... I can't see how this method can possibly work in the long run. You're talking 3 wins that are wiped out by 1 loss (Limit +10 & Stop -30)! Even with the "Law of Averages" the odds are heavily staked against you. Putting it another way, 30 wins are wiped out by just 10 losses ... seems crazy to me!!!

Maybe I'm missing something here that hopefully the more astute among you will offer some positive comment?

Regards,
Mike

 

[pseudo straddle]

I wonder if anyone would have been tweaking Net Trap back in September 09 after it had made +965 points in three months that's over 50% of the yearly return in three months.

September 2009 was when the beta testers were let loose on it, for two or three months.

Doubt if they would have been allowed to do any tweaking!

 

[mark120169]

G'day NTers (not pronounced "Nutters" honest), MNTers TNTers or even INTers!

Well it's the Forums' official observer here (or should that be unofficial)!

Guys, regarding MNT ... I can't see how this method can possibly work in the long run. You're talking 3 wins that are wiped out by 1 loss (Limit +10 & Stop -30)! Even with the "Law of Averages" the odds are heavily staked against you. Putting it another way, 30 wins are wiped out by just 10 losses ... seems crazy to me!!!

Maybe I'm missing something here that hopefully the more astute among you will offer some positive comment?

Regards,
Mike

If you were just placing random trades at any point of the market for cable I would agree. But what you are doing with MNT is following NT rules, which will keep you out of trades if the market is too flat or turns against you before your trade is triggered.

What NT is good at is finding the trade direction for the timeslot, and historically (in 2010 at least) once the trade is trigger the market has a high percentage chance of moving 10 pips in your favour before changing direction, or of moving 10 pips overall before getting stopped out.

All I can say is I have the data for the last 4 weeks and NT purely by the rules is doing badly at somewhere around -40 pips, But out of the last 4 weeks and 16 trades MNT has banked fully on 13 earning +130 pips and lost on 3 losing 80 pips, so is sitting on +50 pips. And also one MNT -30 pip loss was so close that anyone on a 2 pip spread or who entered 1 pip higer on a 3 pip spread would have avaoided it and banked. Making MNT +90 pips for 16 trades vs NT on -40 pips.

It has more to do with the odds of how often the market doesn't move 10 pips with NT system over the two hours, rather than the pure odds of the RR ratio.

M

 

[Claviceps]

G'day NTers (not pronounced "Nutters" honest), MNTers TNTers or even INTers!

Well it's the Forums' official observer here (or should that be unofficial)!

Guys, regarding MNT ... I can't see how this method can possibly work in the long run. You're talking 3 wins that are wiped out by 1 loss (Limit +10 & Stop -30)! Even with the "Law of Averages" the odds are heavily staked against you. Putting it another way, 30 wins are wiped out by just 10 losses ... seems crazy to me!!!

Maybe I'm missing something here that hopefully the more astute among you will offer some positive comment?

Regards,
Mike

G'day to you to,
Even as one of the 'less astute' amongst us I can see that you are
missing something here. The 'Law of Averages' has nothing to do with this. Do you have
a copy of Net Trap ? are you a practising net trapper? if so-then these are odd questions to be asking. I for one am grateful to Mark for sharing his ideas and results with us and applaud his courtesy in defending his ideas to you .

 

[Claviceps]

BTW I'm also paper trading the NT system against EUR/USD everyday, will be interesting to see how that works out. Will let you know at the end of the month how it worked out for June.

Would be very interested to know how you fair with this- I have read the the EUR/USD
tends to behave in a more predictable way and is quite a bit less volatile than Cable or Swissy .However the book I quote from was written in more normal times .

 

[goldfinger777]

Would be very interested to know how you fair with this- I have read the the EUR/USD
tends to behave in a more predictable way and is quite a bit less volatile than Cable or Swissy .However the book I quote from was written in more normal times .

It is indeed less volatile. For each day of EUR/USD paper trading I'm logging the entry, exit, profit/loss, MA figures, and MA spread. Will upload the spreadsheet to this forum at the end of June.

 

[Tenapenny]

Would be very interested to know how you fair with this- I have read the the EUR/USD
tends to behave in a more predictable way and is quite a bit less volatile than Cable or Swissy .However the book I quote from was written in more normal times .

EUR/USD is one of, if not the best to use for trend following stratergies. Remember, the trend is your friend.

 

[insidergates]

Because I'm a bit sad I thought I would look back for the last 3 weeks to see what the aggregate results were if we used a limit of 10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45 & 50 pip profit with a 30 pip sl ending at 8:30am. For the last 3 weeks in first place is the 10 pip profit, second is 20 pip profit and third place is 50pip profit. However just to point out I did include monday 7th June as a 30pip loss as I was stopped out by 0.6 of a pip. Had I not been stopped out and many were not the 10 pip profit level was joint first with 112 pips over 3 weeks. Net Trap got 97 pips and was in 3rd place. Interestingly ALL of the differing profit levels produced a profit which leads me to think that the set up for net trap is very good as it works for many different variables. I suppose its the confirmation of a trend, the time of placement (quiet at that time) , the fact that the trend has to continue to tigger entry into a position ( hence adding and subtracting pips to the 6.15 high or low) and having a cut of point at 8:30. As a sceptic and someone who has lost a lot of money in the past its reassuring to me, but remember these are my figures and may well be a bit inaccurate, though I don't think so, so don't take my word for it. Now I think its time I went to watch some paint dry!!

 

[mark120169]

Because I'm a bit sad I thought I would look back for the last 3 weeks to see what the aggregate results were if we used a limit of 10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45 & 50 pip profit with a 30 pip sl ending at 8:30am. For the last 3 weeks in first place is the 10 pip profit, second is 20 pip profit and third place is 50pip profit. However just to point out I did include monday 7th June as a 30pip loss as I was stopped out by 0.6 of a pip. Had I not been stopped out and many were not the 10 pip profit level was joint first with 112 pips over 3 weeks. Net Trap got 97 pips and was in 3rd place. Interestingly ALL of the differing profit levels produced a profit which leads me to think that the set up for net trap is very good as it works for many different variables. I suppose its the confirmation of a trend, the time of placement (quiet at that time) , the fact that the trend has to continue to tigger entry into a position ( hence adding and subtracting pips to the 6.15 high or low) and having a cut of point at 8:30. As a sceptic and someone who has lost a lot of money in the past its reassuring to me, but remember these are my figures and may well be a bit inaccurate, though I don't think so, so don't take my word for it. Now I think its time I went to watch some paint dry!!

I fail to see how You could possibly have got NT @ +97 pips for the last 3 weeks? This I must contest straight away. My personal results for the last 3 weeks are +27 pips pure vanilla NT and I suspect if RH roughly mirrors me this week with his results on Monday His results will be somewhare around -26 pips for the lasdt three weeks so how did you get +97 pips with the +50 limit?

You have to remember that the only reason I am on +27 is Thursday 27/5/10 was a close trade call by myself & many on here to bag +50 pips but RH and many, many others made it a no trade day.

Please if you can double check this NT result and break it down on here day by day as it can't be true.

M

 

[insidergates]

M

As I say could be some mistake so will check.

This week I totaled -4 but was stopped out on monday by 0.6 so some will have continued to be in the trade, that would mean that this weeks would have been not -4 but +38 for the week as the 8:30 close was +12. I just assumed that on Monday some would not have been stopped out like me as it was only .6. I will check previous weeks when I get a moment

 

[Claviceps]

EUR/USD is one of, if not the best to use for trend following stratergies. Remember, the trend is your friend.

Thanks for your replies guys , clearly I need to go study this pair for future action.
Talking of befriending the trend - as net trappers we concern ourselves with pretty short term trends, not paying too much attention to the overall longer term picture.
One of the trading methods I use (I'm not fussy-I'll use anything that works most of the time) adds to the old traders doggerel 'the trend is your friend'.
'The Trend is Your Friend - Until the End' . It seems to me that the two weaknesses of
Net Trap are (1) short term volatility leading to stops being run ,and(2)not recognising
when the short term trend is going to end . The only partial remedy to short term volatility that I have so far come up with is timing my entry to improve my position,this runs contrary the NT method . Not recognising when the short term trend is about to end is more difficult ,the NT method attempts to cover for this by setting the entry
so it doesn't trigger, but short term volatility can and sometimes does overrun this .
Sometimes there are clues to help us take a view on when the short term trend is about to end , yesterday was ,(in my view) a classic.We had been on a steady up trend for a couple of days and for some hours before the net trap set up the market had pretty much been going sideways ,this I think was a dead give away for what happened later.
In other words taking a look at a longer term trend (say for a day or two ) can help
decide when the short term trend is about to end.

 

[Trader333]

Remember, the trend is your friend

But in what timeframe ?


Paul

 

[MikesDirect]

If you were just placing random trades at any point of the market for cable I would agree. But what you are doing with MNT is following NT rules, which will keep you out of trades if the market is too flat or turns against you before your trade is triggered.

What NT is good at is finding the trade direction for the timeslot, and historically (in 2010 at least) once the trade is trigger the market has a high percentage chance of moving 10 pips in your favour before changing direction, or of moving 10 pips overall before getting stopped out.

All I can say is I have the data for the last 4 weeks and NT purely by the rules is doing badly at somewhere around -40 pips, But out of the last 4 weeks and 16 trades MNT has banked fully on 13 earning +130 pips and lost on 3 losing 80 pips, so is sitting on +50 pips. And also one MNT -30 pip loss was so close that anyone on a 2 pip spread or who entered 1 pip higer on a 3 pip spread would have avaoided it and banked. Making MNT +90 pips for 16 trades vs NT on -40 pips.

It has more to do with the odds of how often the market doesn't move 10 pips with NT system over the two hours, rather than the pure odds of the RR ratio.

M

A very good point Sir - I stand corrected!

Regards,
Mike