He who smelt it.dealt it.
He who smelt it.dealt it.
Very funny!!!
that useless piece of shi* that is the 200ma.
almost every time i have waited for price to hit the 200ma so i could get in or out of a position and it just reversed in seemingly thin air.
it now appears the 100ma was getting in the way.
so now im using 20/50/100
almost every time i have waited for price to hit the 200ma so i could get in or out of a position and it just reversed in seemingly thin air.
it now appears the 100ma was getting in the way.
so now im using 20/50/100
What market was this? Where were you long/short?
Buyers or sellers can enter a market whenever they want
Doesnt matter which market,charts of which are all the same.
My market is the ftse.ive stopped trading all others to concentrate on this and make it my bitc*
Yeah they're all the same if you're going to rely on moving averages. They are a measure of past price movement and are smoothed. How does that relate to what is going on with the price RIGHT NOW.
Sometimes the MAs will coincide with significant Support or Resistance. Then they take on the magical qualities that we know and love:whistling
EVERY THING IS SHI*
all indicators are shi*.you name it,it is shi*.
support/resistence-shi*
moving averages simple/exponential-shi*
bollingers/stochastics/rsi....the list is endless,all shi*
they'll just do the opposite of what theyre supposed to do especially for you.
but that doesnt mean they shouldnt be used at all.
the one thing that is not shi* and remains true and can sometimes even be reduced in the course of a trade is RISK
and now the problem is keeping your head during a string of losses because you have embraced risk.
all indicators are shi*.you name it,it is shi*.
support/resistence-shi*
moving averages simple/exponential-shi*
bollingers/stochastics/rsi....the list is endless,all shi*
they'll just do the opposite of what theyre supposed to do especially for you.
but that doesnt mean they shouldnt be used at all.
the one thing that is not shi* and remains true and can sometimes even be reduced in the course of a trade is RISK
and now the problem is keeping your head during a string of losses because you have embraced risk.
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MA's are useful as trend identifiers but not as entry triggers - you're on a hiding to nothing if you go down that road.
dont think i will be travelling on that road....they are only like the brush strokes on a painting,you know they are there and have some relevance...
MAs have no relevance to what price is doing now. They have no relevance to support and resistance. People mistake their relevance when price reverses when it hits an MA and therefore think it is because of an MA. Drop them entirely.
Ask just one question about all indicators. If price hits the lower bollinger band/200 or 50 MA/whatever, then is this what the large traders (who are the ones who move markets) are going to react to, and therefore enter the market en masse to reverse price?
Answer: NO
Ditch MAs, they are not even a brush stroke on a painting. They are nothing.
Ask just one question about all indicators. If price hits the lower bollinger band/200 or 50 MA/whatever, then is this what the large traders (who are the ones who move markets) are going to react to, and therefore enter the market en masse to reverse price?
Answer: NO
Ditch MAs, they are not even a brush stroke on a painting. They are nothing.
Yes, price reactions to MA's are meaningless, but I don't agree with your extreme line on MA's. They are good if used, bad if misused.
As said above, they're useful in trend-following identifiers - so for my long-term trend-following trades off the dailies -
* I only buy if price is already above both 50 and 200EMA
* I prefer a buy in which the 50EMA is sloping upwards
* I like trends in which the weekly bars have not been intersected by the 200EMA recently
* once a trade has passed break-even, a close below the 9EMA would suggest upwards momentum has seriously weakened, probably time to exit.
I look at price action too for trend confirmation and entry signals of course, but as used above the MA's are a key aid.
Oscar Reed
Senior member
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ARE BROKERS HUNTING STOPS TO YOUR PIDDLING LITTLE POSITIONS
people say they are not,they wouldnt bother as your positions are trifling little amounts.
but if they didnt bother with trifling little amounts,it would mean they are being inefficient and you would keep compounding your little amounts to add up.
so where they can these MOFOS will take your stop for whatever they can get!
people say they are not,they wouldnt bother as your positions are trifling little amounts.
but if they didnt bother with trifling little amounts,it would mean they are being inefficient and you would keep compounding your little amounts to add up.
so where they can these MOFOS will take your stop for whatever they can get!
TRYING NOT TO OVERTRADE
-smaller time frames=more setups(even valid ones)= more and quicker signals to get in and out:OVERTRADING!
-bigger time frames=having to wait longer for setups,having to be extremely disciplened to sit and wait.
but heres the kicker which drives me back to a smaller TF(2min) from 5min :the bigger the reversal has to be to confirm a trade.so waiting for a short on a 5min might mean it has to drop 20 points before it actually is a short and im left thinking if i was on 2min i might have caught the move and be done for the day!
-smaller time frames=more setups(even valid ones)= more and quicker signals to get in and out:OVERTRADING!
-bigger time frames=having to wait longer for setups,having to be extremely disciplened to sit and wait.
but heres the kicker which drives me back to a smaller TF(2min) from 5min :the bigger the reversal has to be to confirm a trade.so waiting for a short on a 5min might mean it has to drop 20 points before it actually is a short and im left thinking if i was on 2min i might have caught the move and be done for the day!
Stop hunting does exist, but in terms of understanding market structure, and what the big boys are doing, it is unhelpful and inaccurate to call it that.
Instead, look at it as large traders hunting pools of liquidity. The large traders tend to be the ones who stop trends and get in at low prices. They will continue to load up within a swing. And now they have a huge amount of contracts to dispose of but they don't want to exit at any area as there will not be enough liquidity for them to close their positions, and maybe open new ones in the opposite direction at a great price with low risk and high reward.
Guess where all that liquidity is? Where stops are. It is not stop hunting, it is liquidity hunting.
Having said all that, a dodgy broker can most certainly ensure that their prices extend into an area above and beyond where the market has moved, where they know their clients have a lot of stops clustered. If you're not using an ECN for fx then this is certainly a real possibility. One more reason to trade futures via a centralised exchange.
Instead, look at it as large traders hunting pools of liquidity. The large traders tend to be the ones who stop trends and get in at low prices. They will continue to load up within a swing. And now they have a huge amount of contracts to dispose of but they don't want to exit at any area as there will not be enough liquidity for them to close their positions, and maybe open new ones in the opposite direction at a great price with low risk and high reward.
Guess where all that liquidity is? Where stops are. It is not stop hunting, it is liquidity hunting.
Having said all that, a dodgy broker can most certainly ensure that their prices extend into an area above and beyond where the market has moved, where they know their clients have a lot of stops clustered. If you're not using an ECN for fx then this is certainly a real possibility. One more reason to trade futures via a centralised exchange.
todays trades much about the same as every day
shorted ftse
1)12.34 7361.8
2)12.40 7362
3)13.10 7364.8
4)13.32 7371.9
5)15.56 7373.2
closing out 16.43 7369.6 net -19.3(incl 5 point roll)
it just fking kept going up n up n up for hours giving me odd opportunity to get out with a small loss but never a win.each position would come into the green by half a point for a split second before shooting back harder the other way.
first 2 trades were pretty rational with stops(mental) to take me out for about -10.
3rd was rational too,to take me out for a total of about -15 but i wasnt to give up without a fight.
4th and 5th trades should not have been taken as were against strategy(but when have i ever followed strategy) and it so happens were the only 2 to give me the odd few points.
but not before running me to about -70 and then it was coming up to uk close with me at about -45 and thinking i dont want to hold and pay another 5 point charge before it reversed and went back to about -70.now i thought fk this im going to hold.
and it did come back to net -7,but now wanting to get a win,i held and watched it reverse to -30.
i was on the right side of the trade but risk would have taken me back to around -70 and i didnt want that again so i finally cut at -19.3 after over 4hrs.
only to see it fall another 50 points(5x10) after i cut.
i held wave after wave in anticipation of this and when does it fall? when ive finally had enough!
i should have got out hours earlier for a smaller loss,maybe 5-10 points but i would have been pissed at losing that and probably thought i should have given it more time but i'll take -19.3 instead of -70 .
make that -13.3,scalped a few points.
i'll get it back soon!
shorted ftse
1)12.34 7361.8
2)12.40 7362
3)13.10 7364.8
4)13.32 7371.9
5)15.56 7373.2
closing out 16.43 7369.6 net -19.3(incl 5 point roll)
it just fking kept going up n up n up for hours giving me odd opportunity to get out with a small loss but never a win.each position would come into the green by half a point for a split second before shooting back harder the other way.
first 2 trades were pretty rational with stops(mental) to take me out for about -10.
3rd was rational too,to take me out for a total of about -15 but i wasnt to give up without a fight.
4th and 5th trades should not have been taken as were against strategy(but when have i ever followed strategy) and it so happens were the only 2 to give me the odd few points.
but not before running me to about -70 and then it was coming up to uk close with me at about -45 and thinking i dont want to hold and pay another 5 point charge before it reversed and went back to about -70.now i thought fk this im going to hold.
and it did come back to net -7,but now wanting to get a win,i held and watched it reverse to -30.
i was on the right side of the trade but risk would have taken me back to around -70 and i didnt want that again so i finally cut at -19.3 after over 4hrs.
only to see it fall another 50 points(5x10) after i cut.
i held wave after wave in anticipation of this and when does it fall? when ive finally had enough!
i should have got out hours earlier for a smaller loss,maybe 5-10 points but i would have been pissed at losing that and probably thought i should have given it more time but i'll take -19.3 instead of -70 .
make that -13.3,scalped a few points.
i'll get it back soon!
OVER TRADING AND FEAR
only 2 hours in and ive taken 8 trades all ready- really thought i wou;ld be putting in a bit more effort to reduce this
FEAR - 3 trades that epitomise my fear
short ftse
1)10.38 7377.6
2)10.38 7379.2
3)11.09 7386.2 closed 11.26 7380.6 +5.6
closing other 2 11.48 7378.2 +0.4
MENTAL stops for first two trades was at about 81 and once again i couldnt bring myself to let go.
so i should have got out for about -8 and instead ran it to about -18 and adding a 3rd.how much worse could it get!
3rd position saved me bringing me into profit by odd point before it quickly reverses and after what felt like ages i closed it for +5.6 but stupidly left the other 2 running which soon reversed and took me back to about -15 and me once again not wanting to close about net -10.
i finally close out about BE out of FEAR.I did not want to run it to -20 or so(possible risk if assumed(is that the right word)) and i knew if it took me back there i would dig in again and maybe held hostage for hours again.
only this time to watch it fall 60 points(2x30) minutes after i cut!
so 8 trades in 2hrs +15 and missing out on another 60.
should i chastise myself.....maybe not too much but better come back with a better mental attitude without that little voice in the back of my mind saying 'you know your not going to follow rules'
only 2 hours in and ive taken 8 trades all ready- really thought i wou;ld be putting in a bit more effort to reduce this
FEAR - 3 trades that epitomise my fear
short ftse
1)10.38 7377.6
2)10.38 7379.2
3)11.09 7386.2 closed 11.26 7380.6 +5.6
closing other 2 11.48 7378.2 +0.4
MENTAL stops for first two trades was at about 81 and once again i couldnt bring myself to let go.
so i should have got out for about -8 and instead ran it to about -18 and adding a 3rd.how much worse could it get!
3rd position saved me bringing me into profit by odd point before it quickly reverses and after what felt like ages i closed it for +5.6 but stupidly left the other 2 running which soon reversed and took me back to about -15 and me once again not wanting to close about net -10.
i finally close out about BE out of FEAR.I did not want to run it to -20 or so(possible risk if assumed(is that the right word)) and i knew if it took me back there i would dig in again and maybe held hostage for hours again.
only this time to watch it fall 60 points(2x30) minutes after i cut!
so 8 trades in 2hrs +15 and missing out on another 60.
should i chastise myself.....maybe not too much but better come back with a better mental attitude without that little voice in the back of my mind saying 'you know your not going to follow rules'
