kimo'sabby
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Random trading systems - "monkey with a pin"
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ryandj2222
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the hare
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I believe that markets are to some extent self fulfilling prophesies and predictable at least to an extent where its possible to benefit from speculative positions based on those predictions.
That's just a belief based on personal experience of trading in that way
I also believe (again based on personal experience) that its possible to benefit based on a reactive rather than a predictive approach. My thoughts on this are probably more aligned to DT's thinking that my reactive methods are being based on a prediction of what I think might happen, based on probabilities, or various market models etc
I don't think it matters what you believe, but I do think you need to believe in something, there has to be some solid foundation to work off. I just happened to start off on the predictive path like most others, but events forced me into taking the alternative path.
The key point is that I accept that my results might be a statistical anomaly. But I also understand why I get the results I get, and the underlying concept that I'm trading, and I also understand that this aspect of market behavior may cease. If if ceases, I will know, and I will modify my approach in accordance.
I accept that traders such as DT or new trader can trade profitably using price action concepts, but they appear to totally discount the possibility that any method with a random element can work.
They are quite right to ridicule van Tharps ridiculous 2ATR trailing stop nonsense, and they are equally correct in constantly asserting that random entries will lead at best to break even minus transaction costs, no one is disputing that.
A long standing member was criticized and chastised by a t2w member of staff recently for expressing the opinion that most retail traders will lose money. He was basically told not to express such opinions and advised that his valid, and valuable contributions where not welcome.
When vendors who are pushing a particular methodology constantly express the opinion that methods that include a random entry cannot work then it needs to be addressed. There are several long standing members at t2w who do trade with this approach, and several others who understand the potential benefits of approaching automated design from this perspective.
I don't really understand what t2w is about these days, but I'm still working in the assumption that its a website where people with an interest in trading can talk bollox with like minded individuals, and that they still welcome content as long as its not too prejudicial to their commercial interests. I happens think that random systems are exceptionally beneficial, and when I see vendors attempting to destroy sensible debate in order to protect their own commercial interests, I usually comment
Its fair enough if DT coughs up a bit of protection money, we are all big boys and know how the games played, but until he does, I suspect the advocates of random trading are going to get on his case
kimo'sabby
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ryandj2222
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kimo'sabby
Experienced member
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I believe that markets are to some extent self fulfilling prophesies and predictable at least to an extent where its possible to benefit from speculative positions based on those predictions.
That's just a belief based on personal experience of trading in that way
I also believe (again based on personal experience) that its possible to benefit based on a reactive rather than a predictive approach. My thoughts on this are probably more aligned to DT's thinking that my reactive methods are being based on a prediction of what I think might happen, based on probabilities, or various market models etc
I don't think it matters what you believe, but I do think you need to believe in something, there has to be some solid foundation to work off. I just happened to start off on the predictive path like most others, but events forced me into taking the alternative path.
The key point is that I accept that my results might be a statistical anomaly. But I also understand why I get the results I get, and the underlying concept that I'm trading, and I also understand that this aspect of market behavior may cease. If if ceases, I will know, and I will modify my approach in accordance.
I accept that traders such as DT or new trader can trade profitably using price action concepts, but they appear to totally discount the possibility that any method with a random element can work.
They are quite right to ridicule van Tharps ridiculous 2ATR trailing stop nonsense, and they are equally correct in constantly asserting that random entries will lead at best to break even minus transaction costs, no one is disputing that.
A long standing member was criticized and chastised by a t2w member of staff recently for expressing the opinion that most retail traders will lose money. He was basically told not to express such opinions and advised that his valid, and valuable contributions where not welcome.
When vendors who are pushing a particular methodology constantly express the opinion that methods that include a random entry cannot work then it needs to be addressed. There are several long standing members at t2w who do trade with this approach, and several others who understand the potential benefits of approaching automated design from this perspective.
I don't really understand what t2w is about these days, but I'm still working in the assumption that its a website where people with an interest in trading can talk bollox with like minded individuals, and that they still welcome content as long as its not too prejudicial to their commercial interests. I happens think that random systems are exceptionally beneficial, and when I see vendors attempting to destroy sensible debate in order to protect their own commercial interests, I usually comment
Its fair enough if DT coughs up a bit of protection money, we are all big boys and know how the games played, but until he does, I suspect the advocates of random trading are going to get on his case
Right or wrong, DT, puts it on the line. Personally, i dont want to see your results or account.
Why?
I can't stand an anti-climax.
Well, you started something, young man!
16 pages, which includes a study of the feeding behaviour of rats. What more could you want?
ryandj2222
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Well, you started something, young man!
16 pages, which includes a study of the feeding behaviour of rats. What more could you want?
LOL... it is certainly interesting! I am new here too...
kimo'sabby
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ryandj2222
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kimo'sabby
Experienced member
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ryandj2222
Active member
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kimo'sabby
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ryandj2222
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Go on then tell me what I am missing?
kimo'sabby
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ryandj2222
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Yes and yes... before I forget what it was that you aren't telling me .. oh yes, what the market affords me.
C
cablemonster
kinelllllll thanks for posting this Hare. A lot of the strats I use tend to have a c.65% strike rate, it looks like I was binning some ideas too early. It's so easy to underestimate the importance of luck/bad luck.
random12345
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This thread is pretty bad tempered eh. Isn't this a semantic issue with the term random....
While I agree with LV that random trading can be successful from an entry perspective, I also agree with DT that the exit needs to be managed somehow in order to produce a profit and defeat the spread/commission, even if this is based on a factor that can be random in nature, it is still a bound factor and not a completely random time event. (So it can't be 10,000 pips from the current price 12 years later).
The exit is so terribly important. So. Terribly. Important.
While I agree with LV that random trading can be successful from an entry perspective, I also agree with DT that the exit needs to be managed somehow in order to produce a profit and defeat the spread/commission, even if this is based on a factor that can be random in nature, it is still a bound factor and not a completely random time event. (So it can't be 10,000 pips from the current price 12 years later).
The exit is so terribly important. So. Terribly. Important.
As I see it, whatever a trader does is bastante random inasmuch as we are all likely to have different views of what the market is going to do. Nothing can be more random than that.
As far as the exits are concerned, they are extremely important because we all have different pain levels and know what we stand to lose if we fail.
Today, I have managed to make 40 points in four trades. I, simply, could not make up my mind on which way the market was going to go, so my profits on the four were +9, +8, +19, +4. Sometimes, my stops almost went. Other days they would have but today I was lucky.
I don't kid myself that I am anything more than a random picker but one who takes losses very seriously.
I've been on this site for ages and seen al sorts of systems. I can't seem to get anything to work for me so I do what I feel is the right entry to make some kind of a profit.
That is one reason that I do not try to explain what I do ie. it is fairly random.
As far as the exits are concerned, they are extremely important because we all have different pain levels and know what we stand to lose if we fail.
Today, I have managed to make 40 points in four trades. I, simply, could not make up my mind on which way the market was going to go, so my profits on the four were +9, +8, +19, +4. Sometimes, my stops almost went. Other days they would have but today I was lucky.
I don't kid myself that I am anything more than a random picker but one who takes losses very seriously.
I've been on this site for ages and seen al sorts of systems. I can't seem to get anything to work for me so I do what I feel is the right entry to make some kind of a profit.
That is one reason that I do not try to explain what I do ie. it is fairly random.
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M
malaguti
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