Quick Question for Experienced Traders

[price777999]

then you would have to figure the average amount of trades per week .........say 10 trades per week ,6 loosers and 4 winners .

and you would have to figure an average nummber of pips for the winning /loosing trades

 

[price777999]

so if the average loosing trade was 20 pips and the average winning trade was 40 pips :



40 x 50p = 20 pounds ========20 pounds x 4 = 80 pounds [winner]


20 x 50p = 10 pounds ========10 pounds x 6 = 60 pounds [looser ]


so an average profit of 20 pounds per week , is that correct ?

so the first doubling of your account would take about a year ???

 

[Ed B]

Before you start counting your money, focus on your win % and the ratio of pips won on winning trades vs pips lost on losing trades. If, for example, you trade one EUR standard lot 400 times per year and you make 40 pips on winners and lose 20 pips per loser and having a win ratio of 50 %, you'll earn 4000 pips over the course of the year. But there's a lot of ifs in that statement and only you know how realistic it is.

 

[price777999]

Before you start counting your money, focus on your win % and the ratio of pips won on winning trades vs pips lost on losing trades. If, for example, you trade one EUR standard lot 400 times per year and you make 40 pips on winners and lose 20 pips per loser and having a win ratio of 50 %, you'll earn 4000 pips over the course of the year. But there's a lot of ifs in that statement and only you know how realistic it is.

yea thats why i figured a 40% win rate .....i thought it was a realistic expectation ?

 

[Windowsill]

yea thats why i figured a 40% win rate .....i thought it was a realistic expectation ?

40% win rate FOR 1 SYSTEM may produce excellent profits. For another system where even 10% losses are huge....its a hopeless figure.

For ME PERSONALLY 80% win rate is good and almost necessary....if I had 60% losses I would stop trading and look for another job.

 

[Ed B]

Top traders are in the 65 - 75 % win range. Anyone in the 80 % range is truly a superstar. But when you say that an 80 % win rate is almost necessary, it usually means that you're losing a lot more on your losing trades than you're winning on your winning trades. Successful trading requires a combination of both factors.

 

[Windowsill]

Top traders are in the 65 - 75 % win range. Anyone in the 80 % range is truly a superstar. But when you say that an 80 % win rate is almost necessary, it usually means that you're losing a lot more on your losing trades than you're winning on your winning trades. Successful trading requires a combination of both factors.

Its the system.....I'm not a superstar.

Anyone can get virtually 100%, the usual 5 point limit stop and no stop.... obviously works well for a while!!! As you point out above, losses and depression soon set in fast.

However there is a middle road, where you can get some losses but the wins cover because you get the direction right and enough profit to cover.

 

[Ed B]

I'll repeat, the most successful traders are in the 65 - 75 % range. If "Anyone can get virtually 100%" , we wouldn't have 90 % of traders losing their entire stake within the first six months of
opening their account.

 

[zupcon]

I'll repeat, the most successful traders are in the 65 - 75 % range.

On what basis is this claim made, do you have evidence to back this up ? or is it just a gut feeling or a straw poll of a few people you know ?

 

[Ed B]

Among others, Linda Bradford Raschke, one of the original Turtles said her win % is about 70 % and she makes about $450 on her winning trades and loses about $ 200 on her losing trades and she is one of the most successful traders in the US. Anyone who thinks he can consistently win anywhere near 100 % is on a crack pipe.

 

[zupcon]

So a sample size of one. I can see you'll go far

If LBR only makes $450 on a winning trade, then its of no surprise that she needs to run a commercial trading room !

 

[Ed B]

Keep smoking that pipe!!

 

[mb325]

Would be interesting to find out what successful traders' win % are. Someone should start a poll...pretty sure the average would be less than 65%...

 

[Ed B]

Except for ZUPCON.

 

[DeadMoney]

Would be interesting to find out what successful traders' win % are. Someone should start a poll...pretty sure the average would be less than 65%...

I knew a guy who was making around 10k per day, he let me go through his account statements and I added up a couple of weeks of his trades and they worked out to be successful around 54% of the time.

 

[alan5616]

Thanks zupcon,..I didn't learn anything new in your reply,.but i think others might.
Counter violent,..I work alone,...: )

Your posts have, obviously, ruffled a few feathers; you described yourself as a heretic in one of them. I have sympathy with heretics as my forefathers, who were Huguenots, emigrated from France to the UK, in 1570, to escape persecution.

I'm sure that some traders, who have contributed to this thread, set themselves a daily profit target, in fact, I'm one of them. Although it is satisfying to realise this profit, in many ways it's counter productive. There are many occasions when I exit a profitable trade, once I've reached my target, only to see the price move even further in the direction of the trade that I've just exited.

I achieve a consistent return of 5% per week but, know that most weeks it could have been more. I don't doubt that it's possible to achieve a higher return and I would applaud, rather than denigrate, those that do.

 

[virtuos0]

Among others, Linda Bradford Raschke, one of the original Turtles said her win % is about 70 % and she makes about $450 on her winning trades and loses about $ 200 on her losing trades and she is one of the most successful traders in the US. Anyone who thinks he can consistently win anywhere near 100 % is on a crack pipe.

Of course you can consistently win nearly 100% of the time, but you'll be trading with the sword of Damocles hanging over your head.

It's comparable to a Martingale system I suppose, or the St Petersburg paradox.

Lots of small wins, then you get wiped out.

 

[virtuos0]

Would be interesting to find out what successful traders' win % are. Someone should start a poll...pretty sure the average would be less than 65%...

It doesn't matter what their win rate is, but you might want to examine what kind of Sharpe ratio successful traders have and compare it to your own.

 

[price777999]

Tim Morge a profesional trader for 30 years says he gets a hit rate of about 60 %..................

 

[elitejets]

Kugan,..Don't listen to all the naysayers,...4% ROI per day is easily achievable.
The only demon you will have to battle with, is when your account grows and the relevant percentage outlay is the same (more naughts on the end).
This is a psychological game, and most folk are unable to deal with the alteration in mindset.
Imagine walking a four inch beam that is placed on the ground,..easy you say,...now raise it a couple hundred feet!
There in lies your challenge, get it right, and the skies your limit,.literally.

I hope no one reads this thread and believes the sh1t this person talks.
Hilarymannah is someone who used to be known here as Wasp.
He lost my investment in his "pool" and a LOT of my friends money.
Don't fall for it ....