Questioning common beliefs

[scholfield]

what happened to the original cablemonster?

 

[sonofcablemonster]

You only trade to make money - too many traders forget that

it's so easy to forget this. Being right or wrong doesn't in itself make money. At some stage nearly all trades will be in profit, I would hazard a guess that 80% of most people trades are at some point during their lifespan in profit.

I know you know this but when you think you have a great trade and you are shooting for 20 pips and it gets to like +7 and stalls, that's where you should be taking the majority if not all of the profit out not waiting for it to come back. Letting it come back and scratching is a ball ache. Letting it come back for any sort of loss is criminal although we will all have done it many times even if we try not to. Just got to keep telling yourself not to do it and if you really cant stop then it's time to find another profession.

 

[Shakone]

what happened to the original cablemonster?

Dunno, but he has a vendor stall

 

[sonofcablemonster]

what happened to the original cablemonster?

oh my daddy, yeah well he is no longer around. He got annoyed so he changed his password to something really really long that he knew he wouldnt be able to remember. He also changed his email address to something really long that he knew he wouldnt remember, hence he locked himself out of his own account. Dont worry though he taught me everything he knew about trading

 

[sonofcablemonster]

Dunno, but he has a vendor stall

yeah i put myself down as a data vendor. I have a part time hobby studying moon and planet orbits, I find it helps me filter out bad trades. I wasn't planning on selling my 'moon studies' but I thought I better declare it in case pboyles comes back.

 

[Forexmospherian]

F, I think in trading one should aim for perfection, every trade

The very best in the business for the past decade or so had 17 monthly losses in 148 months. I don't want to argue about what's possible, because I believe amazing performance is possible, but equally don't be downhearted if the week hasn't turned out well, and don't lose your composure the next week or start taking reckless trades to catchup. Much better to accept that losing days and weeks are part of this business. Accept it and work to improve.

Hi Shakone

Yes agree with you that newer traders will have to accept losing periods - whether weekly or monthly period etc.

However the very best in this past decade or so who have had 17 monthly losses in 148 months - are commercial traders - or investors - ie they trade millions and billions - chalk and cheese to retail.

Its a totally different ball game - you cannot compare apples with oranges is my reasoning.

For example 148 months is approx 12 and half years - and they have had approx 12% of that time in the red - probably more - but then you could say 88% of the time in profit.

You can then look at really experienced retail day traders and do the same monthly periods - and come up with far better results - ie in last 2 +years I have not had one losing week never mind a blooming losing month

So my stats say 130+ weeks - and 0% in the red - ie 100% of the time in the black

OK - we all know you can prove nearly anything with stats - but retail traders are being totally mislead by the commercial world stats

If I had a 100 million account and did 40% in a year on it - its absolutely fantastic - ie a 40 million gain - massive.- especially on really low percent stakes

Now if a retail trader with a $1000 account only puts $400 on it in a year - are you saying its good ??

So immediately retail traders who put over 100% on there small accounts in a year think they are brilliant - top top traders etc

What they don't realise is that a selective few very experienced day traders will put 1000% + on that account - within 12 months - without even compounding every quarter.

But ask them to do that on a multi million dollar account - and every one would fail ;-)

So lets keep the apples and oranges in different boxes - and rule out the comparisons

Regards

F

 

[sonofcablemonster]

So my stats say 130+ weeks - and 0% in the red - ie 100% of the time in the black

F

great stats Forexmosbros but you do realise that most people on here will think this is not possible. why dont you post a statement for this weeks trades (amounts blanked out). otherwise its a bit like going on a weight training forum and saying you bench 400kg, you get me. Infact I might just do that and see what response I get.

 

[Shakone]

great stats Forexmosbros but you do realise that most people on here will think this is not possible. why dont you post a statement for this weeks trades (amounts blanked out). otherwise its a bit like going on a weight training forum and saying you bench 400kg, you get me. Infact I might just do that and see what response I get.

"One tip? Impossible, I suppose "trading is a birth by a thousand cuts" is as original as I can get. Anyhow a story/anecdote fits much better I reckon. First body-building/powerlifting gym I walked into as a 17 year old knocked me out, I learned a lot that's remained with me for life, even in my 45 year old shrunken (but still very fit and healthy) state. This gym produced Mr Universe, Mr UK, Mr Great Britain, trained olympic athletes, pro footballers, world class cyclists, powerlifting record holders. A memory, a guy breaking the UK heavy-weight division deadlift record in the gym on a late November Thursday night; no fuss, no ceremony, he just did it. A round of applause he got showered, changed, said thanks, shook hands and went home to no doubt put out fires in the rougher parts of Liverpool (early 80's) the next day. Quiet guy, he flew under the radar, did his job (and his hobby) day after day, week after week, year after year.. "

 

[Forexmospherian]

great stats Forexmosbros but you do realise that most people on here will think this is not possible. why dont you post a statement for this weeks trades (amounts blanked out). otherwise its a bit like going on a weight training forum and saying you bench 400kg, you get me. Infact I might just do that and see what response I get.

Hi Son of the CM

i am going to do something better than that

In the new year I will open a couple of $100 accounts with a scalpers broker Exness or Pepperstone - get my 1000 to 1 or 500 to 1 leverage and then try and put 10,000 % increase on the account within 5 working days and 100 trades ;-)

Always love a challenge - problem is if only put a few thousand % on - every one will say - he's no good - he's a rubbish trader lol

Will have to pick the period and the week etc - and then I will have to focus more as well that week ;-))

CM - loved spanking the bucket brokers as well - maybe you can get him to join in ;-)

Regards

F

 

[NVP]

Hi Son of the CM

i am going to do something better than that

In the new year I will open a couple of $100 accounts with a scalpers broker Exness or Pepperstone - get my 1000 to 1 or 500 to 1 leverage and then try and put 10,000 % increase on the account within 5 working days and 100 trades ;-)

Always love a challenge - problem is if only put a few thousand % on - every one will say - he's no good - he's a rubbish trader lol

Will have to pick the period and the week etc - and then I will have to focus more as well that week ;-))

CM - loved spanking the bucket brokers as well - maybe you can get him to join in ;-)

Regards

F

now that will be interesting F.......that will be interesting

N

 

[Shakone]

Good stuff F, looking forward to it, but this is not the FX-mo sho

So back to the questions:

Lower timeframes are noise

So a 5 minute chart is noise, and there's no signal, but a concatenation of 3 of these (15 minute) or 12 of these (hourly chart) will result in a reliable signal.

All you need is a good looking Pinbar, entry on top, stop at bottom

Hmmm.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Good stuff F, looking forward to it, but this is not the FX-mo sho

So back to the questions:

Lower timeframes are noise

So a 5 minute chart is noise, and there's no signal, but a concatenation of 3 of these (15 minute) or 12 of these (hourly chart) will result in a reliable signal.

All you need is a good looking Pinbar, entry on top, stop at bottom

Hmmm.

Yes - very true - back to the questions

5 min chart is noise


Yes true - but you can trade certain "noise" and the " devil is in the detail".

Many times my 30 min / 1 hr / 2hr / 4hr etc will say sell - and my tick to 5 mins say buy .

Guess which one I believe ;-)

Its not what all the books and gurus and all would say - but then have you ever read anywhere about getting a RR of 3 on 10 -15 pips of noise ?

Re Pinbar

Hmmm.... - yes ;-) - candlestick analysis is brilliant for 50/50 results over 100's or thousand of trades.

So all traders who think its the "bees knees" have not done enough trades using it - and all traders who say it "no good" - might have done too many trades using it.

Using pinbars with other "clues" can give you a good picture - then they might have a 60 -70% chance of working - all depending on the number of pips you are after and the size of your stop ;-)

Regards

F

 

[sonofcablemonster]

Hi Son of the CM

i am going to do something better than that

In the new year I will open a couple of $100 accounts with a scalpers broker Exness or Pepperstone - get my 1000 to 1 or 500 to 1 leverage and then try and put 10,000 % increase on the account within 5 working days and 100 trades ;-)

Always love a challenge - problem is if only put a few thousand % on - every one will say - he's no good - he's a rubbish trader lol

Will have to pick the period and the week etc - and then I will have to focus more as well that week ;-))

CM - loved spanking the bucket brokers as well - maybe you can get him to join in ;-)

Regards

F

Ok good. Not that I dont believe you, having been around the block a bit I can tell you can walk the walk I am just stating the obvious that other people on here might think you are BSing. My Dads bucket shop account is still in positive territory so I will continue with it, not until the new year though as I dont like the holiday markets, too thin. I am sure there are some good range play opps but xmas is family time for me.

G/w

 

[DionysusToast]

The second common belief I would like to question is:

The trend is your friend


Well is it? Quite a strong statement to make, especially when we have to define trend. And your definition is probably different to mine and different to the one who invented the phrase. But even once you take your specific definition, is it better or worse to trade with the trend? Have you checked or assumed it's true?


Is the trend your friend on all timeframes, on all instruments? Is it ever a good idea to trade against it?


All thoughts welcome on this or the previous post, and indeed any other common beliefs that you think are worth questioning.

Most aspiring day traders I come across are perma-faders - always trying to buy when it's moving down or sell when it's moving up.

On an intraday level - on the ES anyway - you'll have 2-4 x 8-12 point intraday swings. These are short term trends and it's a lot easier to let them confirm and then jump on and take a bite from the move. Too many people are trying to catch the turning point.

Overall or 'higher timeframe' trend is totally meaningless in this environment. It's irrelevant to those day trading these intraday swings.

 

[DionysusToast]

An interesting view F.

I don't share it regarding either Tudor-Jones or Livermore. I think plenty of traders have said the same thing, Rotter (the flipper) was another who said he couldn't go against the trend for long either. There are others. I also remember reading somewhere an interview in which a wizard explained that he and two others had a plan to manipulate a particular market. He later explained that two of them double-crossed the third and wiped his account. So I'm not convinced they are all protecting the industry or eachother.

As for Livermore, that is a tragic tale, he married the wrong woman and suffered from depression. For a long time I didn't see much in that book. Nowadays I couldn't disagree with you more about its relevance to today's trading.

But your statement about HFT gives me another thing we should question:

Humans can't compete with computers in trading (or indeed games of strategy)

There was a recent BBC article concerning chess and how the machines had won the war and the best human wouldn't even stand a chance now. It took decades for the computer to outplay the grandmasters, but by brute force it was done. What interested me more though was that the article mentioned another game, a variation of chess that was invented a few years ago. They have tournaments, and in this game humans are still the winners and the machines are nowhere near the standard required to win (yet), even after years. Of course they will dominate that game too eventually, but the key point is that when the rules of the game change, or the nature of the game, computers cannot adapt nearly as quickly as humans.

In trading sometimes the rules change, the regulation, the volatility, the participants and winning strategies, new products and markets are created etc. So there's still opportunity for humans if you can adapt to this, and imo always will be.

Stop runs and HFT concerns generally fall into the "reasons I'm losing money category".

These are not the reasons people lose money. Areas where there are lots of stops are effectively pools of liquidity - sellers that will sell at low prices, buyers that will buy at high prices. It is the very nature of an auction for the market to move towards these areas, all other things being equal.

As for HFTs - it's not a valid concern for most people - you are not competing with HFTs and they are not the reason people are losing money. People still move the markets, not computers.

There's always a "them" in trading but the fact is that "they" are not the reason people lose money.

 

[Shakone]

In the Christmas spirit, a tribute to Trade2Win and the days gone by:

It's a good idea to be both long and short the same instrument in the same size at the same time.

PM Timsk for details :cheesy:

Mike Baghdady can trade

He makes a lot of paps but he can't trade, he's a hollow sweatbag.

You can learn everything you need to know about trading in flight school.

I disagree and this is why:

For some. For others it's more like, snakes and ladders.

N Rothschild does not have a ferrari.

It's all about learning to trade the Captain Birdseye Hook.

Lastly, don't forget what legendary trader Denise Richards had to say.

 

[hungcable]

For some. For others it's more like, snakes and ladders.

 

[kimo'sabby]

For some. For others it's more like, snakes and ladders.

 

[hungcable]

For some. For others it's more like, snakes and ladders.

 

[Mr. Charts]