DionysusToast
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Haiku (or as close as possible in English)
Howard Cohodas
Speaking yet without saying
Toasted doubtlessly
Howard Cohodas
Speaking yet without saying
Toasted doubtlessly
Someone posted here that they are nonsense, but can actually be used in trading, which to me is as contradictory as it gets..surely the whole point is whether they can be used in trading or not....
Take bedsit's chart for example. Fib extensions from the upswing from early march to early april. It looks nice. But there was an upswing from early feb to late feb, what about those extensions? And lots more upswings afterwards that we could draw extensions from. So how long do we keep just one fib extension, until the 261.8 has been hit or the 161.8?
And the other problem with retracements is that they are often drawn after the fact for analysis, when the top or bottom has established itself. Then you have a 38.2, and a 50 and 61.8. But in real time, you don't know where the top is, so you have to consider all the other retracements that maybe worked or maybe failed that were generated before that top or bottom. It's all very messy to do, but good luck if you can do it.
Hi DT.
Sorry - I didn't put any explanation with the attachment.
I use Fibonacci levels on different time frames in different ways. I used this example to get an idea about the target - (the circles only show how the price behaved around different levels).
I prefer to pay more attention to the practical side, rather than to Fibonacci levels' discussions i.e. if one makes regular profit from them, why not.
This is the key - here we have a poster who uses Fibs, finds them profitable, but others then come on to try to disprove a fact by picking holes in the posters method, through applying pseudo scientific analysis' and looking for cookie cutter solutions / 100% proof etc to something which just cannot be analysed in this manner.....
Of course - 30-ish, 60-ish - that's a rule of thumb, not some magic number...
Howard - as you tend towards being pro-fibs - what is your experience with trading them ?
I have stated my own. I think it's fair you state yours.
PS - here's the thing & I know you won't be able to wrap your head around this.
If a retracement goes beyond the 61.80%, I stop looking for a move back in the direction prior to the retracement.
I reckon any more past half way is too much.
I still think 61.8 is totally arbitrary and has no actual meaning, other than it's as good a yardstick as any other.
Now - I would gladly reset my fib tool to 65% and I would not worry at all that I was now looking at 65% instead of 61.8.
Like I say - 61.8 - 31.2 - total nonsense.
Of course - 30-ish, 60-ish - that's a rule of thumb, not some magic number...
.And you're getting a positive result. Now looking at nthe list of the things you have above, how much are the fibs contributing to that result?
Why is it a rule of thumb.....what makes it a rule of thumb? So you do attach importance to these ratios ? What is your point? Do you even know ? Think about it.....
I don't attach importance to them.
As I said, I could change them & they'd still do the same thing.
It's just nice to know where 'oooh, that looks a bit far' is on a retracement if I'd been considering getting in on it.
If it goes 'oooh, that looks a bit far', I'll go back to the Teletubbies until something more interesting occurs.
61.8% - nonsense.
A bit much innit - total sense.
Shakone,
Of course - hindsight trading is easy.
Being leading indicator the idea behind it is to draw them before the event so you can have an idea about certain levels and use it for your trading decisions. It helps me when looking at the right side of the chart (difficult side)
..
.Here is a 'no hindsight' example on EU (hourly chart). Short after it closed below 0% level. Target 161.80%
ballsy