Proving that Fibonacci retracements have an edge...

[DionysusToast]

Re the year - it took my mate a year before he could properly fly a helicopter. And if you use some common sense you'll realise that THROUGHOUT that year he WAS flying helicopters. Learning while flying if you will.

Same with learning Fib or any other indicators, your LEARN while you TRADE and you trade with REAL MONEY as dummy money is a waste of time. But how much money do you trade with, only small amounts so losses and mistakes which there will be plenty can be kept to a minimum (investment in your education if you will).

So back to the year, why a year? Simple because you've got to know and understand the subtleties of an indicator and that cannot be done in a few months or over a weekend. They'll naively think 'oh, it didn't work and I'm pissed off I lost money' when the correct attitude for someone who's done his homework and been trained properly will say 'oh, that's interesting and potentially dynamite information - major Fib support failed, I should be able to use this information profitably for the next few trading sessions and because of my hard earned understanding of the markets in relation to Fib theory I know EXACTLY how to play this sort of move'.

So you've got to know for example when to trust your indicators and when not to as pattern failures for a good trader should make him a tonne of money. Somebody learning about Fib over a weekend won't have a clue about any sort of pattern failure and how to correctly play it.

I stand by what I say, if you want to get good with any technical indicator you're foolish if you think you can do it in less than a year. Like I said it's all about learning and the interpretation the subtleties.

Having said that, if you think you can learn something complex in a few days and be able to compete for the SAME profits as others who've taken years to perfect their craft then please you're very welcome to use your knowledge against ours (I'll be shorting your 'strong .382 support' at the precise time it's likely to fail).

I'm in the markets all the time and love shooting fish in a barrel.............

So let's get this right.

It takes a year to learn how to use ANY indicator now ? That's a year of your life on something that is statistically unproven?

Now - I can tell you that helicpters can fly. I can tell you the failure rate of people that attempt to learn to fly a helicopter. I can tell you the failure rate of helicopters.

There is a subtle difference between learning to fly a helicopter and learning to use an indicator. Helicopters have been proven to work and indicators have not. In fact, it is VERY easy to show that any indicator has no statistical significance.

OK - let's say you draw a line on a chart & you learn when to know the markets will reverse around that line or not. Why do you still think the line is significant any more ? What you will have learnt in that year is how to spot a reversal ! Something you'd probably have done a lot faster if you weren't looking at that irrelevant horizontal line.

Or perhaps you will tell us that the 2nd indicator you learn will also take a year & the third & the fourth...

As for 'shooting fish in a barrel'..... sigh... is there anyone on here that actually trades ?

 

[DionysusToast]

Is that, really, proven? Fibonachi was not thinking of markets when he discovered his theory. All he was doing was pondering over the reproduction of rabbits, or whatever monks pondered over in those days. I suggest that your Elliot wave principle is far better suited to the markets because it is, actually, based on market study--not adapted from some other source ( and I don't believe in Elliot Wave, either).

I have not come out too badly in not believing in any of this, which goes to show that the whole thing is a very personal way of doing things. There are some who believe in astrology. If they are successful at it, who are we to say it is nonsense?

Why 23.6%? Because this is a number thrown up over Heaven knows how long a period and the more examples that there are, the more accurate it is going to be.

That is the theory. In fact, in practical terms it is nonsense. The turning point in which you are interested will probably be very different from where it,actually, occurs and yet, when it it is added to the thousands of previous examples it will fall near enough to be valid.

You can say that again !!

 

[HowardCohodas]

is there anyone on here that actually trades ?

Yes! I do. Do you?

 

[FX Bandit]

Yes! I do. Do you?

Vendors .

Sure you trade. I actually believe you. No really. I do. I'm not taking the p1ss. Sorry if it sounds like that, it's not meant to. Yep, really think you trade.

Explains why you want to sell model aeroplane "secrets" to "explode" people's accounts.

:cheesy:

 

[wackypete2]

Vendors .

Vendors trade their crappy systems for newbies hard earned money. Very high success rate.
Peter

 

[bedsit]

That is the theory. In fact, in practical terms it is nonsense. The turning point in which you are interested will probably be very different from where it,actually, occurs and yet, when it it is added to the thousands of previous examples it will fall near enough to be valid.

I'm talking from my personal experience (practical).
Based on the performance I can form a judgement, not on what Tom, Dick and Harry (who never used the system) think of it. - no offence intended

PS It never ceases to amaze me how some people tend to form a strong opinion about something they've never tried and how ready they are to give advice based on reading about it somewhere.

 

[HowardCohodas]

t never ceases to amaze me how some people tend to form a strong opinion about something they've never tried and how ready they are to give advice based on reading about it somewhere.

If not for that, the forum posts would reduce by 80%.

Oh wait. Maybe that would be a good thing.

 

[FX Bandit]

If not for that, the forum posts would reduce by 80%.

Oh wait. Maybe that would be a good thing.

Not for you it wouldn't. You need clueless morons on forums to buy your nonsense.

You wanna play with me? You gonna take the beatdowns sucka.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Not for you it wouldn't. You need clueless morons on forums to buy your nonsense.

Says the person (I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt) hiding behind a pseudonym to the guy who doesn't. I wonder what readers will make of that?

 

[FX Bandit]

Says the person (I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt) hiding behind a pseudonym to the guy who doesn't. I wonder what readers will make of that?

Nothing, most likely. I'm not "hiding" you moron - I'm using a forum name like 99.9% of people on here.

I have nothing to hide and I'm not selling anything, nor will I ever do so.

So just to confirm - most people will make nothing of me doing what they themselves are doing, and the assumption that the reason we do it is to "hide" (presumably for unsavoury or dishonest reasons) is just silly.

Done told yoo fool, the beatdowns be comin yo way suckah!

 

[FX Bandit]

This is a list of members currently online:

FX Bandit, 0007, Adamus, Alastair10, antonio2010, arabianights, bbmac, berya, biffo, Blonde, bsamoyl, bunnyrabbit123, captkam, carterk, Cashanova, CCJoff, ChowClown, cryoplasm, ctrlbrk, currencysurfer, danabelc, DavidS, dick_dastardly, djchappy, doctorwindmill, Dommo, donaldduke, Dubai, ed30, Electech, Emini-mouse, futures_man, Gabro, geckofx, Gedro, geese1, Geoff135, GerryRich, gillybabe, glorfindell, gogsy, goodtyneguy, GRAHAM N, Greenfever, greenmd1, greentrader99, Gregus83, greigmcl, H5N1, hariva, harry steele, Headless Chook, helbry, Hilarymannah, Hittfeld, Hobble, Hogs, HowardCohodas, ian23, inzider, irastorza, I_only_had_soup, jaffas46, Jarod, jd1888, jenlin, jimmac7, Jkundo, jn107, joe2010, Joel17, jon1971, JT_MOT, kamikaze, Kash76, Krzysiaczek99, larry081721, LiamH, Lightning McQueen, liite, lozoo, maariuszn, Macabel, mark120169, markie01, marktalens, Massagedoc, Masterful, matderis, mcdowall, medbs, Merstocks, mg550, minneapolisig, mizor_99, mob008, Mr Tumbles, newsanno, nikko, Norman Gilfedder, octomanoak, Orutra, Pasternak, peterf1966, Pi3141, pimplico, pipnator, pocrel, Prof8t, ProfitMaster, Pucio, questar2000, rahul3156, RBurgess, redlion, Richie_A, rjay, Roberto27, robster970, Rocket!, rodolphemehu, rolston, rsh01, ruki, russ13, samalan, sarnia cherie, scipio, speedtrip, SpindriftUK, spintron, squall321, stefanus140, stoneyxk8, SystemTrader, tar, temper, Tenapenny, Todonnell2009, trader4u, trader_d, TrailingStop, Trend's Friend, trev100, ttnywabm, ValleyBoy, westa28, whisper42, williegreen, wyichc, xtf, yawser, yidos1, zkhoiz

Very dodgy, I'm sure you'll agree. It appears that all members online at the moment, with the exception of 1, must be "hiding".

Hmm, that so-called "Lightning McQueen" looks especially dodgy. And "Hogs" - if he is not really a number of pigs we certainly should not trust him.



T0sser.

 

[HowardCohodas]

I have nothing to hide and I'm not selling anything, nor will I ever do so.

You most certainly are selling something. You are trying to sell your opinion on many subjects and many people on this forum. Your agenda may not be pecuniary, but you are indeed selling more aggressively than most.

I suspect a lot of your bluster and bad behavior is a result of your failure to sell your ideas. Sure, you are getting responses from people, including me, but from what I can tell it is still "NO SALE."

 

[DionysusToast]

Yes! I do. Do you?

More trades in a month than the 29 trades your 'system' has placed.

Can't wait for the lessons, Howard...

 

[FX Bandit]

You most certainly are selling something. You are trying to sell your opinion on many subjects and many people on this forum. Your agenda may not be pecuniary, but you are indeed selling more aggressively than most.

I suspect a lot of your bluster and bad behavior is a result of your failure to sell your ideas. Sure, you are getting responses from people, including me, but from what I can tell it is still "NO SALE."

That is so bizarre it is difficult to respond to. I'm "selling my ideas" - but not for money!

I notice that when you make a stupid post and then swiftly get owned, you simply don't respond to it - you just move on to fresh nonsense. For example, you're a vendor and you attempt to direct a silly insult against me - one that would apply to 99.9% of your potential victims, er I mean customers.

Try to think more carefully before you post, and you might avoid looking so foolish.

"Selling more aggressively than most"

 

[HowardCohodas]

I notice that when you make a stupid post and then swiftly get owned, you simply don't respond to it - you just move on to fresh nonsense.

This is called transference. It frequently manifests itself by a person accusing another of the things they do themselves. Some introspection may be healthy for you.

 

[anley]

Helicopters have been proven to work and indicators have not. In fact, it is VERY easy to show that any indicator has no statistical significance.

Then how come billions of $ has been pulled out of the markets over the last 20-30 years by computers, all running and analysing their trading decisions via stats/indicators?

According to you this is not possible and so you'd have no problem going into one of these firms' (say AHL or Winton) ) and telling the partners that they were wrong, they were idiots and fools for even thinking that their trading systems and strategies could work. I'd love to be there, love to see you get laughed and then kicked out of the building.

Therefore I'd put a sock in it if I were you Disney as cracks are starting to appear in your veneer and your unattractive ignorance is starting to show.

 

[enragedcow]

the more people that use the indicator the more price will be accurately predicted by the indicator, statistical or otherwise

it's like a sign in an obscure dialect stating "buy a piece of corn at $1 the price will increase to $5" if after some time 7 billion people learned this obscure dialect the price would increase and the sign would be "correct"

i use fib levels

and if you're worried about who will be on the other side of the transaction, it will be the new players and/or the people using algorithms to trade

 

[Ferru]

The Fibonacci series is tightly related to the golden ratio. The golden ratio is deeply embedded in nature and I can find no reason to doubt it is a component of human psychology which is what the market is all about.

With respect, the physical properties of a snowflake have no relevance to any human market, brick or virtual!

Jeff

 

[Ferru]

If enough people use a particular technique, it wil lose its effectiveness in the sum zero game of trading...

Jeff

the more people that use the indicator the more price will be accurately predicted by the indicator, statistical or otherwise

it's like a sign in an obscure dialect stating "buy a piece of corn at $1 the price will increase to $5" if after some time 7 billion people learned this obscure dialect the price would increase and the sign would be "correct"

i use fib levels

 

[welshguy121]

hi all
what is the best time frame to use fibs