Price action and Knife system journal

[dmt257]

Usd/Cad 4hr short trade. Placed an order for this one before I went to bed.

This is the move I was looking for. A break below support then retrace, before moving down again.

Entry 0.9665
S/l 0.97016
T/p 0.9520

Think I may may watch this carefully with the US non-manufacturing news due in less than an hours time. Possibly moving stop to b/e soon.

EDIT Stop to b/e 7.30pm. Currently +42 pips

 

[dmt257]

Entered long on the Gbp/Jpy weekly late last night. We had a break above a BRN and PPZ. Boj interevention, break of a t/l on weekly and daily.

This is something I thought about entering at the start of the week but didn't. My trigger finger was itchy though and I did think that this trade had a reasonable amount going for it, so why not?

Entry 135.93
S/l 134.60
T/p 139.20

Stop has now been moved to b/e though as we are 140 pips in profit atm.

EDIT Stop moved to 136.93 at 7.30pm locking in 100 pips. Currently + 202 pips.
EDIT Stop moved to 137.45 at 8.30pm locking in 152 pips. Currently +226 pips.

 

[dmt257]

I will start summarising each week/ month. This week is the 3rd trading week.

Month of March

Total P/L (% account) +1.71%
Start balance £1000
End balance £1017.11

Total trades 5
Winning trades 2
Losing trades 1
Break even trades 2

Av winner 0.855%
Av loser 1%


3 consecutive months of profitable trading and I will be scaling up to a much larger account.

 

[dmt257]

Watching the GBP/CHF closely for a retrace with PA to the BRN 1.5. Also happens to be a PPZ, and we have a fib line and 365 MA as additional confluence.

 

[dmt257]

Well as I kind of suspected the GBP has continued straight on upwards, for now at least so I think that trade is a scratch for now.

The AUD/CHF daily is a potential fakey trade which I will be taking if it breaks.

The pin bar if off the BRN PPZ and also the 150 ma. Im concious of the housing report that is shortly out so we will see what happens.

Gbp/Jpy trade is currently up 308 pips. Usd/Cad +31. At the time of writing that is +4.5% for my account. Hopefully that USD trade will take off down to .95 which would leave me with about +12%.

EDIT Well the fakey bar did break in the right direction but because the news was bad for a long trade, I didn't put in an order. We had a reduction in housing loans that was twice anticipated, which should weaken the Aud (prospect of lower interest rates to keep the housing bubble inflated? ). Because it moved 50+ pips I would already be at b/e now. Guess thats more evidence for trading using PA and not news, which is something I hear alot.

 

[dmt257]

Entered long on the Gbp/Jpy weekly late last night. We had a break above a BRN and PPZ. Boj interevention, break of a t/l on weekly and daily.

This is something I thought about entering at the start of the week but didn't. My trigger finger was itchy though and I did think that this trade had a reasonable amount going for it, so why not?

Entry 135.93
S/l 134.60
T/p 139.20

Stop has now been moved to b/e though as we are 140 pips in profit atm.

EDIT Stop moved to 136.93 at 7.30pm locking in 100 pips. Currently + 202 pips.
EDIT Stop moved to 137.45 at 8.30pm locking in 152 pips. Currently +226 pips.

Closed at 139.40 for +345 pips. It did make it as high as 139.67 but I trailed a stop when we were approaching that BRN of 140.00.

Unfortunately, because of my small account and hence position size, I only got £34.61 out of it or +3.461% of the account.

 

[dmt257]

USD/CAD currently +57 pips. 30 have been locked in. Hopefully some strong CAD Pmi news later today will help some more.

 

[dmt257]

News out of Canada was very good for the Cad. Definately looking to .95 now.

Currently +90 pips

 

[dmt257]

Usd/Cad 4hr short trade. Placed an order for this one before I went to bed.

This is the move I was looking for. A break below support then retrace, before moving down again.

Entry 0.9665
S/l 0.97016
T/p 0.9520

Think I may may watch this carefully with the US non-manufacturing news due in less than an hours time. Possibly moving stop to b/e soon.

EDIT Stop to b/e 7.30pm. Currently +42 pips

Closed out at 0.95920 after a nice 4hr pin bar signalled a reversal.

+77 pips/ + 3.63%/ +£36.30

 

[dmt257]

That pin bar which got me out of the Usd/Cad should have gotton me long. I didn't trade it because it felt wrong jumping straight from one to the other, regardless of promising PA (imo). If that same set-up had occurred on any other pair I would have been all over it.

Nice sized pin bar at swing low. No traffic. Would already be at b/e if I had taken it and price is currently at some resistance from the two bar reversal swing low.

Next time I won't let it stop me.

 

[dmt257]

Ive not seen anything on the the daily or 4 hour at the end of day Thursday so that is it for my week as im away all day tomorrow.

Very pleased with my two trades. Im glad im resisting the urge to enter ones those im not especially confident in. I don't need many per week like this to grow my account super fast. Fingers crossed it continues.



Week 3 Summary
Total P/L (% account) +7.09%
Account start balance £1000
Week start balance £1017.11
End balance £1087.20

Total trades 2
Winning trades 2
Losing trades 0
Break even trades 0

Av winner 3.545%
Av loser n/a

 

[dmt257]

No longer going to trade the Knife system. Its just not me. I've discovered im more of a PA guy that likes clean charts with no indicators. Just bars and a couple of ma's

The left chart is what my 4Hr would look like trading the Knife. The right one is what it is now. Can't be bothered with the clutter and don't think its needed tbh.

 

[dmt257]

Here is a Fakey trade.

GBP/CHF on 4Hr. Short.

Entry- 1.48536
S/l- 1.49054
Target- 1.47

We had an inside bar and the next one after broke upwards through PPZ/ 150 ma resistance and retraced. I simply took a break of that fakey bar in the opposite direction to which it initially made the false breakout. Looking at the Weekly we are in a long term downtrend, and also trending down on the 4Hr

Currently +48 pips and just moved to b/e

 

[advfntrader]

nice trading, very wise to keep the risk down, if you can keep it up then with time the account will grow and the money will be more meaningful

 

[dmt257]

nice trading, very wise to keep the risk down, if you can keep it up then with time the account will grow and the money will be more meaningful

Thanks bud. I agree. Ive only taken one loss so far and it hurt me mentally so I want to be picky as possible

 

[dmt257]

The GBP/CHF trade was stopped out for b/e after a rapid retrace. It made the move I was looking for earlier today but we can't catch them all.

Ive missed a few super easy trades after being preoccupied the last few days. I did manage to catch this one though, short on the AUD/JPY 4hr. It was all over in about 20 mins I think.

We broke down strongly through PPZ support and then retraced to find resistance. Price stalled forming an inside bar with a very small range. I took a break of that inside bar with the bar highs of a few days ago as a target.

Ended up with +1.55%. Red lines are s/l, entry and exit top to bottom.

 

[dmt257]

Five touch trendline on EUR/USD 4hr broken but no PA to suggest going short.

Coincidentally I'm reading Stan Weinstein's 'Secrets for profiting in B&B markets'. He suggests that the steeper the gradient of a trendline the less sucessful a break of those trendlines will generally be. It is more likely to be a slowing of the current trend.

Maybe that is what we will see here? Watching and learning

Daily also has a nice trendline that is still holding.

 

[dmt257]

Week 4 Summary

Total P/L (% account) +1.55
Account start balance £1000
Week start balance £1087.20
End balance £1102.75

Total trades 2
Winning trades 1
Losing trades 0
Break even trades 1

Av winner 1.55%
Av loser n/a

Quiet week. Missed some super obvious trades though as I was busy with alot of stuff. First month has been profitable. Repeat it for two more and I can move to a larger account.


Trade for today....went short on the EUR/JPY weekly.

We have a near two day pin bar. I say near because it didn't close within the previous, but the PA still gave the same signal. There is also alot of space, highlighted by the blue squiggly line, so it doesn't look like there will be too much resistance to price moving down. In addition there is all the EU debt issues which should give a bearish outlook.

Entered just below last weeks bar with a target of the bar highs at the 115.00 BRN. Ive already moved to b/e. Currently +50 pips

Also wanted to enter a trade on the GBP/USD 4hr but wimped out. A trendline I have been watching for a while was broken and I had a general view that the dollar was oversold a bit short-term. Maybe a will regret not taking this one. Time will tell.

 

[dmt257]

Locked in 33 pips/ 1% of account on the EUR/JPY.

Currently +100 pips. The 4hr looks beautiful. Lets hope it continues to my target price.

 

[dmt257]

Wow. This has taken off. +190 pips

Locked in 100 or so.