Pre-Open US

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

U.S. Stock Futures Decline as Moody's Downgrades Credit Outlook

U.S. stock futures experienced a decline on Monday following Moody's Investors Service's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit outlook from stable to negative. This interruption comes after two weeks of strong performance that had offset much of the losses incurred over the past three months.

Moody's decision, driven by large fiscal deficits and political deadlock in Washington, maintains the AAA credit rating but highlights fiscal concerns. This development echoes Fitch's earlier downgrade of the U.S. long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ over similar issues.

Investors now turn their focus to October's federal budget and the New York Fed's consumer expectations survey, with Fed Governor Lisa Cook set to speak Monday morning, all preceding Tuesday's crucial consumer price index data release.

The Nasdaq continues to exhibit strong momentum, with the potential for the next high at 16000. However, the upcoming CPI data on Tuesday warrants careful observation.

Crypto
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Imminent, Fueling Crypto Market Surge

Pro-Bitcoin ETF expert Nate Geraci has suggested the possibility of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF this week, aligning with Bloomberg's ETF analyst and sparking widespread interest. This development comes after a series of delays in spot Bitcoin ETF applications since June 2023, including Grayscale's application, which was initially rejected and is now undergoing re-review by the SEC.

BlackRock recently challenged the SEC's differing treatment of spot-crypto and crypto-futures ETF applications, advocating for consistent standards, especially in light of their spot-Ether ETF proposal. Following these developments, Todayq News reported a high likelihood of the SEC approving all 12 pending Bitcoin ETF applications soon. This optimism has buoyed the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin's price notably crossing the $37,000 mark for the first time since May 2022, following a 25% surge in the last three weeks.

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a bullish breakout, propelling its price toward the 46700 area - the next target. Sustaining this upward trend by the end of the week would signal a long-term bullish trend and suggest an opportune time to consider buying.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Await Inflation Report, Nasdaq Momentum Pauses Pending Data
Stock futures were muted Tuesday ahead of a closely watched inflation report. S&P 500 futures were up by 0.1%, and Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.2%. U.S. inflation likely eased to an annual rate of 3.3% in October, down from 3.7% in September. However, core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, is expected to remain unchanged, indicating slow progress towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.
Long-term investors believe the Fed is playing a holding game, anticipating that the cooling economy will eventually allow for easing policies, making today's high bond yields attractive. Bank of America's latest monthly fund survey reveals global asset managers holding their largest overweight position in bonds since March 2009, with about 61% expecting yields to be lower in 12 months than they are currently.
Later in the day, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are scheduled to speak, and Home Depot Inc. is set to report earnings.
Nasdaq's momentum is on hold pending today's data. If the data comes in lower than expected, the next target is the July high at 16000.

Crypto

Bitcoin Eyes CPI Report for Direction Following Economic Uncertainty
Bitcoin, currently trading at around $37,000, is closely watching the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a crucial factor in its future direction. The CPI, which is expected to show a slowing in inflation, remains a key influencer on the value of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. October CPI numbers are expected to show a decline in inflation, which could signal a changing economic landscape. This could impact interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and affect investor confidence in Bitcoin.
However, if inflation exceeds expectations, Bitcoin could lose its recent gains. The market is at a crossroads, with elevated funding rates indicating potential volatility. Additionally, the looming US government shutdown could further affect market dynamics.
The CPI report's outcome could either reinforce Bitcoin's position as a digital safe haven or cause a reassessment of this cryptocurrency amid economic uncertainty.
Bitcoin is currently in a holding pattern, pending the release of important data. If inflation turns out to be lower than expected, it may push the price towards the target area of 46700. If Bitcoin manages to sustain its upward trend by the end of the week, it will indicate a long-term bullish trend and signal a good time to buy.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Take a Breath as Investors Assess Economic Indicators and Fed Speeches

On Thursday, S&P 500 futures experienced a modest decline, signaling a momentary pause for investors following a strong November performance. Nasdaq 100 futures saw a 0.23% decrease, while futures tied to the S&P 500 index fell by 0.2%. The Producer Price Index for October, reflecting wholesale prices, showed a notable 0.5% drop, marking the most significant monthly decrease since April 2020.

This decline followed Wednesday's report showing that the Consumer Price Index for October remained unchanged, a positive indicator for investors hoping for a slowdown in inflation that could lead the Federal Reserve to halt interest rate hikes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had recorded their largest gains since April in Tuesday's session. Today, investors' attention shifts to a range of economic data including jobless claims, industrial production, and housing market statistics. Additionally, they will closely monitor speeches from Federal Reserve officials such as Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and New York Fed President John Williams, who are scheduled to speak at various events.

It's worth noting that Nasdaq rebounded after reaching the 16000 mark. However, sustained positive data today will be crucial for further performance and a potential breakout in the market.

Crypto
Bitcoin Hits 19-Month High with SEC ETF Anticipation

Bitcoin reached a new 19-month pinnacle early Thursday, propelled by mounting anticipation surrounding the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) impending decision on numerous spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The SEC faces a deadline tomorrow to approve or reject 12 such applications, including Grayscale's $18 billion Bitcoin trust, which could be converted into an ETF. Additionally, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager with about $10 trillion in assets, is awaiting approval for its spot BTC ETF. The approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF is expected to be a catalyst for Wall Street's entry into the digital asset space. Amid this backdrop, Bitcoin's price briefly surged above $38,000 in early trading today before paring some of these gains. Investors should remain cautious of potential sell-the-news reactions, a frequent occurrence in the fast-paced and volatile cryptocurrency market.

As Bitcoin hit $38,000 before retracing, the prevailing bullish trend seems solid and could potentially extend in both the short and long term.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

US Stock Futures Hold Steady Amid Thanksgiving Week

US stock futures showed little movement on Monday as Wall Street entered a shortened Thanksgiving holiday week. S&P 500 futures edged higher, while Nasdaq 100 futures posted a modest gain. Microsoft shares rose more than 1% after CEO Satya Nadella announced that Sam Altman, the former head of OpenAI, will join the company to lead a new AI research division. US markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and will have shortened trading hours on Friday. Historically, November has been a strong month for the S&P 500, despite occasional volatility around the Thanksgiving holiday. Market optimism persists towards year-end, buoyed by recent US inflation data which suggests a possible pause in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.
The Nasdaq continues to hover around the 16,000 mark for the fourth consecutive time, waiting for direction. Further performance and breakout require positive data today.

Crypto

Bitcoin Surges Past $37,000 Following Javier Milei's Election

Bitcoin surged past $37,000 early Monday following the election of Javier Milei as Argentina's president, a candidate known for his pro-Bitcoin stance. The overall crypto market saw a nearly 2% increase in the last 24 hours. Milei, identifying as an anarcho-capitalist, has praised Bitcoin as a return to private sector-managed money. However, he has not suggested adopting Bitcoin as a legal tender in Argentina. In an interview with the Argentine newspaper Clarín last year, Milei criticized central banks as deceptive and considered Bitcoin a viable alternative to traditional monetary systems, highlighting its potential in combating inflationary tax imposed by politicians.

As Bitcoin navigates a period of uncertainty, awaiting clearer market cues, the current bullish trend appears strong, suggesting the potential for both short and long-term continuation.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Inch Up as Bond Yields Hit Two-Month Low

Stock futures rose slightly on Wednesday as bond yields fell to a two-month low. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.4%. This rise followed the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which indicated continued tight monetary policy with no plans for rate cuts imminent. Nvidia, a major chip manufacturer, announced its results for the third quarter after the close of trading on Tuesday, beating profit and sales expectations. However, the company cautioned that export limitations to China might affect its fiscal fourth-quarter performance. The New York Stock Exchange will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and will have an early closure on Friday.

The Nasdaq will be tested today after Nvidia results while FMOC even traders seem cautious and with tomorrow's closed day profit is taking more accurate which may mean some selloff. While today's data id they come supportive Nadaq may make some gains, but it will be limited.

Crypto

Bitcoin Resilient Following Altcoin Decline, Analysts Bullish on Willy Woo's On-Chain Pattern

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, experienced a slight increase on Tuesday, contrasting with the decline in major altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Ethereum. Year-to-date, BTC has impressively surged by 125%, maintaining a vital support level of around $37,000. Crypto experts are increasingly convinced that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below the $30,000 mark again. This optimism is partly based on an analysis by Willy Woo, a well-known Bitcoin analyst. Woo’s on-chain pattern, which tracks Bitcoin price movements over 13 years, suggests that the probability of BTC falling below $30,000 is decreasing. The pattern, which resembles a contour map, shows the distribution of BTC supply at different price levels acquired by holders, revealing tight bands at certain prices that indicate a strong consensus on value.

The crypto community is optimistic about the DOJ-Binance deal and CZ’s resignation, seeing it as a step towards a Bitcoin ETF. The $4.3 billion settlement addresses Anti-Money Laundering violations, but CZ's departure and the deal have led to market adjustments with significant liquidations and asset outflows from Binance.

Bitcoin is at an uncertain period waiting for more direction. The bullish trend appears strong and could continue for the short and long term even with some negative news for the market.

 

[Z Forex]

Crypto

Bitcoin Rebounds to $37300 with Binance Settlement Optimism

Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience in its price movements, bouncing back from a recent low to a daily high of 37300. This rebound is due in part to traders' reaction to Binance’s legal settlement with the US Department of Justice, which is fueling optimism for a US-based Bitcoin ETF. The options market is reflecting this bullish sentiment, with increased trading activity in call options, particularly for expiry dates in March 2024. Analysts observe positive call-put skews, suggesting market confidence despite potential regulatory upheavals. This optimism is rooted in expectations of a regulatory cleanup in the cryptocurrency sector, which is seen as a stepping stone towards the approval of a cryptocurrency ETF in the U.S. This bullish outlook prevails despite the unexpected exit of Binance’s CEO, Changpeng Zhao, in a landmark legal settlement.

Ethereum Maintains Optimism Despite Market Volatility; Fear and Greed Index at 56

Despite the fallout from the Binance news, which along with other major cryptocurrencies caused a temporary price dip, Ethereum's market sentiment remains optimistic. The Ethereum Fear and Greed Index indicates the 'greed' area with a value of 56. Since the beginning of the year, Ethereum has risen by 66% and has shown a strong performance despite the recent market volatility. This strong increase, alongside its current positioning near the support level, keeps investors and traders vigilant for potential shifts in its trajectory. Bitcoin is at an uncertain period waiting for more direction. The bullish trend appears strong and could continue for the short and long term even with some negative news for the market.

Ethereum price action shows a period of uncertainty near the resistance of 2150, waiting for direction perhaps towards the 2400 resistance level or coming back towards the 1900.

 

[Z Forex]

Nasdaq Faces Uncertainty with Economic Indicators and Fed Speeches

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each fell by around 0.3%, although the Dow and S&P 500 will end the month up 6.9% and 8.5% respectively, while the Nasdaq, which focuses on technology stocks, rose 10.8% in November. During Cyber Monday, investor attention turned to e-commerce stocks, with Affirm, a "buy now, pay later" company, up nearly 12%, Shopify up nearly 5% and Amazon up 0.7%. On Tuesday, traders await economic data on housing prices and consumer confidence, as well as earnings from CrowdStrike. In addition, Federal Reserve officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, will deliver speeches later in the day, keeping investors alert.

The Nasdaq, like other major US indices, is currently in a state of uncertainty, awaiting crucial data, including this week's PCE data and other economic indicators, to determine its future direction. Prices have entered the overbought territory, as evidenced by the RSI indicator. Investors are carefully monitoring these factors before making decisions on market direction.

Bitcoin Retreats from Recent Highs, Yet Bullish Sentiment Persists

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a slight decline, pulling back from recent highs, yet the overall sentiment among crypto traders remains bullish. Bitcoin's moving away from the 18-month high above $38,000 achieved last week, marking a 30% surge since early October. This rise in Bitcoin's value is primarily attributed to optimism surrounding the potential approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by U.S. regulators, which is expected to attract more investors to the crypto market.

In addition to the ETFs' outlook, Bitcoin has been supported by an improving macroeconomic environment, driven by the assumption that the Federal Reserve has completed its interest rate hikes and could lower borrowing costs early next year. Such a move would favor risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies and tech stocks. From a technical perspective, the analysts note that despite the recent pause in price action, Bitcoin remains solid and is holding above key support points. Overall, both fundamental and technical factors are contributing to the prevailing positive sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin is retracting from the $38,000 level and is currently seeking further direction in an environment marked by continuing uncertainty, forming a price range between $38,000 and 35,500.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

Futures Rally for Strongest November Since 2020

The S&P 500 futures rose by 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.3%. These gains set the stage for the three major indices to experience their strongest November since 2020. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are approaching their largest monthly percentage gains since July 2022, with 10 out of 11 sectors expected to end the month in positive territory.

The recent rally in equities has been fueled by signs of easing price pressures, dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials, and robust quarterly earnings. The main focus is now on the PCE Index (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index), the Fed's preferred inflation measure, for the October data.

Market expectations for the upcoming December meeting have fully factored in a pause in rate hikes. However, as potential rate cuts in 2023 are increasingly coming into focus, traders currently estimate the probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by March 2024 at around 44%.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq closed with a slight decrease, signaling investor caution ahead of today's data release. The market has entered an overbought state, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Investors are closely observing these developments to inform their market direction decisions.

Crypto

Bitcoin Eyes Increased Capital Inflow with Potential Fed Rate Pause

Bitcoin may see increased capital inflow if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rates at its December meeting. Such a pause could lead to more capital flowing into risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's momentum has been boosted by the anticipation of an upcoming Fed rate pause, supported by CME FedWatch's 97% probability of a rate pause in December. However, analysts caution that while a rate pause may boost Bitcoin in the short term, the long-term impact will depend on various economic factors and the direction of monetary policy.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the next Federal Reserve rate announcement, paying close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-announcement press conference for signals about possible rate cuts in 2024. market signals already indicate expectations of rate cuts starting in May 2024. This shift in monetary policy could create a more favorable environment for investing in high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The PCE is expected to have a significant impact on the market sentiment today as everyone waits for Powell's speech tomorrow.

Bitcoin is continuing to hover around the $38,000 level and is currently seeking further direction in an environment marked by continuing uncertainty, forming a price range between $38,000 and 35,500.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

Nasdaq Continues Uncertain Movements, Investors Await Fed Chairman's Comments

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures declined by 0.1% and nearly 0.3%, respectively. Traders were eagerly awaiting today's comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The sharp rally in November was partly due to traders beginning to believe that the Fed had completed its rate hikes and could even start cutting rates in the first half of next year. The Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision is scheduled for December 13.

Stock markets ended a record-breaking November on Thursday, breaking a three-month losing streak. The S&P and Nasdaq posted gains of 8.9% and 10.7% respectively, their strongest monthly performance since July 2022.

The Nasdaq continues its uncertain movements and clearly shows that neither the bullish nor the bearish side can determine the direction of the market. The market has entered an overbought state, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Investors are closely monitoring these developments to guide their decisions on market direction.

Crypto

SEC Engages with Asset Managers Ahead of Potential Bitcoin ETF Approval

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is actively engaging with asset managers in the lead-up to a crucial decision on the approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Memos reveal that the SEC recently met with Grayscale to discuss the potential conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF, a move previously blocked but successfully challenged by Grayscale in court. Separate memos indicate meetings with BlackRock and Nasdaq representatives regarding their respective plans for a Bitcoin ETF. Despite the possibility of the SEC blocking crypto ETFs, industry experts anticipate their launch in the US early next year. SEC Chair Gary Gensler, a crypto critic, has indicated a willingness to consider his staff's input on a potential Bitcoin ETF. The market's growing confidence in ETF approval has contributed to a rise in Bitcoin prices, reaching above $37,000. Grayscale's recent hiring of John Hoffman, an ETF executive, suggests preparation for a fund launch if approved. The prevailing sentiment is that a Bitcoin ETF approval could occur in the coming months, impacting the cryptocurrency market positively.

Bitcoin is breaking the 38,000 level, and the next target could be 42,000, while 46,750 represents the strongest resistance level.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

U.S. Stock Futures Rise After Fed Hints at Potential Rate Reductions in 2024
U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday, supported by a significant drop in Treasury yields. This upturn followed the Federal Reserve's indication of potential rate reductions in 2024, which propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average to an all-time high closing. Futures for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 also saw gains, increasing by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.
Amid an easing inflation rate and a stable economy, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided to maintain the benchmark overnight borrowing rate within the 5.25%-5.5% range. The committee members forecasted at least three rate cuts in 2024, each by a quarter percentage point. This projection is less than the market's expectation of four cuts but is more assertive than previous statements from officials.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite hit new 52-week highs on Wednesday. The S&P 500 is just 2% shy of surpassing its highest closing record of 4,796.56, set in January 2022. The Nasdaq, 9% below its closing record, needs to rise by an additional 10% to reach its peak intraday record.
Investors are now focusing on economic data releases scheduled for Thursday, including weekly jobless claims and November’s retail sales figures.
The Nasdaq has reached its resistance level, close to the 16,600 mark, which represents a historical level from 2022. The trend is bullish, and further advancement may occur if the risk-taking sentiment continues. The next target could be around 17,300.

Crypto

Bitcoin Surges 6% Following FASB’s Accounting Standards Update
Bitcoin surged nearly 6% after the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) released an Accounting Standards Update (ASU). This ASU aims to enhance accounting and disclosure for crypto assets, including Bitcoin. Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy's founder, believes this will boost Bitcoin's adoption as a treasury reserve asset by corporations worldwide.
FASB Chair Richard R. Jones stated that this move was prompted by feedback from various stakeholders who emphasized the need to improve crypto asset accounting and disclosure. Jones believes it will provide investors and capital allocators with more relevant information while reducing complexity in accounting.
As per the ASU, starting after December 15, 2024, Bitcoin will be accounted for using Fair Value Accounting. Entities will measure crypto assets at fair value each reporting period, recognizing changes in fair value in net income. They will also disclose significant holdings, contractual sale restrictions, and changes during reporting periods.
The Bitcoin price has rebounded from the median line and is progressing toward the upper parallel of the bullish channel, approaching the $45,000 target. Meanwhile, $46,755 is the next resistance level that Bitcoin may attain.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

Slight Dips in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Futures on Rate Cut Speculations
S&P 500 futures experienced a slight decline of 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures saw a slightly larger decline of 0.3%. Market optimism was bolstered on Tuesday by comments from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. He pointed out that the US central bank is prepared to react appropriately if the recent positive inflation trends were to continue. This statement prompted the money markets to price in an almost 50% probability of a rate cut in the euro area next March and an even higher probability of a similar move by the Fed in the same month.
In corporate news, FedEx fell sharply by 11% in pre-market trading. This decline came after the company released a revenue forecast for the fiscal year that failed to meet expectations. In addition, FedEx's second-quarter results fell short of Wall Street forecasts, both in terms of revenue (top line) and profit (bottom line).
The Nasdaq broke its historical level to make a new high and the momentum is still strong as the Santa rally seems close while the trend is super bullish.

Crypto

Institutional Interest in Bitcoin Surges Ahead of Anticipated Spot ETF Approval
The latest analysis by K33 research analysts has brought to light a significant uptick in institutional interest in Bitcoin, particularly in the context of the anticipated approval of a Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). K33's data shows that the open interest at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) for Bitcoin has increased significantly, by over 3,400 BTC in the last week, maintaining levels near historical highs at approximately 110,000 BTC. This surge is largely attributed to traders positioning themselves to capitalize on the expected favorable ETF decision.
The report underscores the eagerness of traders to leverage the anticipated approval of the Bitcoin ETF, seeing it as an opportunity for profit. Furthermore, it notes that some investors have developed a bullish outlook on Bitcoin and are seeking exposure through the CME considered a convenient and accessible avenue for such investments.
K33's analysis also draws a connection between the rise in CME's open interest and the general rally seen in the cryptocurrency market, which could be partly fueled by speculations regarding the Spot Bitcoin ETF. The report highlights the importance of ETF marketing in the cryptocurrency space, as emphasized by industry expert Samson Mow. Mow points out the significance for the 12 applicants of the Bitcoin ETF product to differentiate their offerings. The goal is to capture a larger share of Assets Under Management (AUM) in this emerging asset class.
The Bitcoin price has rebounded from the median line and is progressing toward the upper parallel of the bullish channel, approaching the $45,000 target. Meanwhile, $46,755 is the next resistance level that Bitcoin may attain.

 

[Z Forex]

EUR/USD Breaks Above 1.1100 with Potential for Correction
The EUR/USD currency pair has surpassed the challenging level of 1.1000 and is now trading above 1.1100, at the upper parallel of a long channel. This could potentially lead to a correction back. Despite this, the overall trend remains strong as the dollar continues to fall, indicating that it is likely to continue doing so.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1300	1.1200	1.1150	1.1000	1.0900	1.0850

Pound Surges Past 1.2800, Sets Sights on 1.2930
The GBP/USD has broken the resistance level of 1.2800 and is now moving towards the next resistance level of 1.2930. The pound, like the euro, benefits from the falling dollar while the trend remains strong and bullish.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3140	1.3050	1.2930	1.2800	1.2630	1.2500

USD/JPY Breaks Below Crucial 142.00 Support, Targets 138.00
The USD/JPY pair broke below the support level of 142.00 which has been lasting for a long time. The next target is at the 138 area, which will pose another challenge for the pair.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
146.50	144.00	142.00	140.00	138.00	134.50

Gold Surges Beyond 2070, A New Bullish Trend in the Making
Gold has broken the 2070 area once again. If this week ends with a candle beyond this area, the gold will enter a new buying territory, a bullish trend, and reach a historical record where the 2140 area can be easily reached again.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2200	2140	2100	2070	2036	2006

WTI Oil Eyes Reversal Confirmation, Targeting $78 for Trend Reversal
WTI oil is attempting to confirm its reversal, where the 78 target is the next challenge to break for a confirmed trend reversal, making oil build on a new trend.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
82.5	81	78	72.8	68	64.9

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

S&P 500 futures have declined by 0.4%, alongside a drop in Nasdaq 100 futures. These movements follow a robust session for equities, where on Monday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite surged over 1% and 2%, respectively. This rally was led by a rebound in mega-cap tech stocks, with Nvidia's shares hitting a record high after a 6.4% climb.
The strong performance of mega-cap tech stocks comes as investors took advantage of the previous week's sell-off to 'buy the dip.' Despite earlier concerns that leading names like Apple might falter following their stellar performance last year, the sentiment has shifted with many traders now optimistic about the sector's prospects.
In the coming days, the market's attention will turn to crucial inflation reports, which will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Investors are particularly focused on the consumer price index scheduled for release on Thursday and the producer price index due out on Friday. These data points are expected to be instrumental in shaping expectations for future rate cuts.
The Nasdaq index made a rebound yesterday erasing a significant part of last week's selloff. The momentum is still strong but volatility may intensify as this week's economic data and the beginning of the Q4 earnings may impact risk sentiment.

Crypto

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has entered the "extreme greed" territory as anticipation builds for an approved spot Bitcoin ETF. The index places Bitcoin's market sentiment at a high of 76 out of 100, matching levels last seen when Bitcoin approached its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.
Bitcoin mining stocks have seen a remarkable increase in trading volume, with transactions exceeding $3.5 billion on January 8. Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Blockchain were at the forefront, with Marathon Digital notably becoming the most traded stock in the U.S. market, surpassing tech giants such as Tesla, AMD, Nvidia, and Apple. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) also made a significant impact with nearly $500 million in trading volume, outstripping 99% of other ETFs.
This surge in mining stocks aligns with the overall expansion in the Bitcoin mining industry. Core Scientific has received a $55 million equity investment, and CleanSpark has signed a strategic agreement that could lead to the acquisition of up to 160,000 miners by the end of 2024. The increased trading activity underscores the rising importance of the Bitcoin mining sector within the broader financial landscape.
Bitcoin's price hit the target of $47,000 before experiencing some profit-taking, as this resistance level is significant. The momentum remains strong and healthy, although a potential correction could occur before the uptrend resumes.

 

[Z Forex]

Major Banks Data Expected to Shape the Inflation Course

S&P 500 futures saw a modest increase of 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a more significant advance of 0.4%. Market participants are keenly focused on the upcoming inflation data, which is expected to be a major driver for market trends. This data will be crucial in assessing the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policies in controlling inflation. The outcome will also be pivotal in aligning market expectations, which currently anticipate six rate cuts in 2024, against the Federal Reserve's projection of three cuts for the year. The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading might indicate that traders are prematurely expecting rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Investors are also closely monitoring the beginning of the fourth-quarter earnings season. Prominent banks such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and JPMorgan Chase are scheduled to report their results this Friday. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq showed resilience yesterday, recovering most of its recent losses. If the upcoming data is lower than expected, Nasdaq could potentially aim for a new record, targeting the 17425 mark. Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, the Nasdaq might face significant sell-offs, with the 16200 area, which also represents the median line, likely serving as the next support level.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are Approved for the First Time

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has made a groundbreaking move by approving the first-ever spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On January 10, firms including ARK 21Shares, Invesco Galaxy, VanEck, WisdomTree, Fidelity, Valkyrie, BlackRock, Grayscale, Bitwise, Hashdex, and Franklin Templeton received the green light to list and trade their spot Bitcoin ETFs. This historic decision allows trading to begin on January 11.
These spot Bitcoin ETFs provide investors a new avenue to gain exposure to Bitcoin's price without directly purchasing the cryptocurrency. Instead, they can buy shares in ETFs holding physical Bitcoin. Samir Kerbage, Chief Information Officer at Hashdex, highlighted this as a monumental day for digital assets, allowing U.S. investors to engage more fully with Bitcoin.
The journey to this approval was arduous, with initial rejections due to concerns over market manipulation and a smaller market size. However, the significantly larger market in 2023 and heightened institutional interest have turned the tide. BlackRock's participation was particularly influential, enhancing the legitimacy of Bitcoin ETFs. With this approval, the approach towards cryptocurrency investment is poised to transform, potentially attracting more institutional investors and affirming Bitcoin's status as a viable investment asset.
Bitcoin's price is testing 47000 which seems possible considering the strong momentum and the bullish trend after the last approval. The next target will be at the 51000 level.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

Futures tied to the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, while those linked to the Nasdaq-100 advanced 0.7%. Apple shares saw an increase of over 1% in premarket trading after Bank of America upgraded the stock to 'buy', predicting more than a 20% upside over the next 12 months. Investors are concerned that a strong December retail sales report, indicative of a robust consumer base, could lead to fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve than previously anticipated. Currently, markets are pricing in about a 56% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut in March. In terms of economic indicators, weekly jobless claims, housing starts, and building permits data are scheduled for release Thursday morning. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is set to speak.
In the premarket, U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) are leading gains among chipmakers with a 4.9% rise. This follows the world's largest contract semiconductor maker's report of upbeat quarterly profit and a projection of upwards of 20% revenue growth, driven by demand for artificial intelligence chips. Other chipmakers like Nvidia, Microchip Technology, and Intel saw increases ranging between 0.2% and 3.5%.
While the Nasdaq and other major U.S. indices are under pressure, today the Nasdaq may see a rebound, supported by these fundamentals. Generally, the Nasdaq is experiencing uncertainty as the bullish trend pauses, and the shift in market sentiment could be negative for the index.

Crypto

The Bitcoin price has remained stagnant in recent days, leaving investors and analysts searching for reasons behind this trend. Three key factors are contributing to Bitcoin's current sideways trading:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly Grayscale's GBTC, have been a major focus in the market. While ETF inflows continue to break records, the Bitcoin price has not seen significant gains. This is partially due to outflows from GBTC, which is considered overpriced with a 1.5% annual fee compared to 0.25% by other issuers. Thomas Fahrer of Apollo highlighted the flow discrepancies, and there is an expectation that Grayscale outflows may reduce over time as investors shift to other Bitcoin exposures.
On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin miners have increased their selling activity, which is contributing to the price stagnation. This behaviour aligns with historical trends where miners sell to manage cash flow or capitalize on price increases during market rallies.
Following the excitement around Bitcoin ETFs, which led to an 82% rally, the market is now in a consolidation phase. This phase is considered natural and resembles patterns seen in other markets, like the first gold ETF. It may take some time before asset managers' marketing efforts and new institutional investors fully embrace this new asset class.
Bitcoin has entered a period of tight price range after hitting $47,000. The trend is bullish, but reaching the upper parallel of the channel could lead to further correction.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

Futures tied to the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, while those linked to the Nasdaq-100 advanced 0.7%. Apple shares saw an increase of over 1% in premarket trading after Bank of America upgraded the stock to 'buy', predicting more than a 20% upside over the next 12 months. Investors are concerned that a strong December retail sales report, indicative of a robust consumer base, could lead to fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve than previously anticipated. Currently, markets are pricing in about a 56% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut in March. In terms of economic indicators, weekly jobless claims, housing starts, and building permits data are scheduled for release Thursday morning. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is set to speak.
In the premarket, U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) are leading gains among chipmakers with a 4.9% rise. This follows the world's largest contract semiconductor maker's report of upbeat quarterly profit and a projection of upwards of 20% revenue growth, driven by demand for artificial intelligence chips. Other chipmakers like Nvidia, Microchip Technology, and Intel saw increases ranging between 0.2% and 3.5%.
While the Nasdaq and other major U.S. indices are under pressure, today the Nasdaq may see a rebound, supported by these fundamentals. Generally, the Nasdaq is experiencing uncertainty as the bullish trend pauses, and the shift in market sentiment could be negative for the index.

Crypto

The Bitcoin price has remained stagnant in recent days, leaving investors and analysts searching for reasons behind this trend. Three key factors are contributing to Bitcoin's current sideways trading:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly Grayscale's GBTC, have been a major focus in the market. While ETF inflows continue to break records, the Bitcoin price has not seen significant gains. This is partially due to outflows from GBTC, which is considered overpriced with a 1.5% annual fee compared to 0.25% by other issuers. Thomas Fahrer of Apollo highlighted the flow discrepancies, and there is an expectation that Grayscale outflows may reduce over time as investors shift to other Bitcoin exposures.
On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin miners have increased their selling activity, which is contributing to the price stagnation. This behaviour aligns with historical trends where miners sell to manage cash flow or capitalize on price increases during market rallies.
Following the excitement around Bitcoin ETFs, which led to an 82% rally, the market is now in a consolidation phase. This phase is considered natural and resembles patterns seen in other markets, like the first gold ETF. It may take some time before asset managers' marketing efforts and new institutional investors fully embrace this new asset class.
Bitcoin has entered a period of tight price range after hitting $47,000. The trend is bullish, but reaching the upper parallel of the channel could lead to further correction.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

Futures tied to the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, while those linked to the Nasdaq-100 advanced 0.7%. Apple shares saw an increase of over 1% in premarket trading after Bank of America upgraded the stock to 'buy', predicting more than a 20% upside over the next 12 months. Investors are concerned that a strong December retail sales report, indicative of a robust consumer base, could lead to fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve than previously anticipated. Currently, markets are pricing in about a 56% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut in March. In terms of economic indicators, weekly jobless claims, housing starts, and building permits data are scheduled for release Thursday morning. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is set to speak.
In the premarket, U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) are leading gains among chipmakers with a 4.9% rise. This follows the world's largest contract semiconductor maker's report of upbeat quarterly profit and a projection of upwards of 20% revenue growth, driven by demand for artificial intelligence chips. Other chipmakers like Nvidia, Microchip Technology, and Intel saw increases ranging between 0.2% and 3.5%.
While the Nasdaq and other major U.S. indices are under pressure, today the Nasdaq may see a rebound, supported by these fundamentals. Generally, the Nasdaq is experiencing uncertainty as the bullish trend pauses, and the shift in market sentiment could be negative for the index.


Crypto

The Bitcoin price has remained stagnant in recent days, leaving investors and analysts searching for reasons behind this trend. Three key factors are contributing to Bitcoin's current sideways trading:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly Grayscale's GBTC, have been a major focus in the market. While ETF inflows continue to break records, the Bitcoin price has not seen significant gains. This is partially due to outflows from GBTC, which is considered overpriced with a 1.5% annual fee compared to 0.25% by other issuers. Thomas Fahrer of Apollo highlighted the flow discrepancies, and there is an expectation that Grayscale outflows may reduce over time as investors shift to other Bitcoin exposures.
On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin miners have increased their selling activity, which is contributing to the price stagnation. This behaviour aligns with historical trends where miners sell to manage cash flow or capitalize on price increases during market rallies.
Following the excitement around Bitcoin ETFs, which led to an 82% rally, the market is now in a consolidation phase. This phase is considered natural and resembles patterns seen in other markets, like the first gold ETF. It may take some time before asset managers' marketing efforts and new institutional investors fully embrace this new asset class.
Bitcoin has entered a period of tight price range after hitting $47,000. The trend is bullish, but reaching the upper parallel of the channel could lead to further correction.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

Stocks climbed higher on Tuesday as investors built upon the previous session's historic surge to record highs. The continued strength of Wall Street hinges on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve can successfully achieve a soft landing—cooling the economy enough to reduce inflation without triggering a recession. Currently, traders are estimating about a 40% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March, a significant drop from nearly 81% just a week earlier, as indicated by FedWatch Tool.
Investors are attentively monitoring a series of economic reports scheduled for release this week. These include the fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures on Thursday and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for December, due on Friday. Both reports will play a crucial role in shaping the Fed's perspective on future monetary policy.
The focus is also on the profit outlook for corporate America, following the commencement of the ongoing earnings season by major U.S. banks. So far, the results have been mixed, with several reports of lower profits.
The Nasdaq, along with other major indices, is experiencing an uptick, with the Nasdaq reaching a new resistance level at the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement, where the rally continues. My projection is for a higher target price, particularly in light of this quarter's earnings. The performance of the 'magnificent seven' and other economic data may further propel the Nasdaq upwards.




Crypto

Bitcoin's value continues to plummet, sinking below the $39K mark amidst ongoing bearish trends. After dipping below the $40K barrier on Monday, the leading cryptocurrency has seen a further 5.3% depreciation against the U.S. dollar within the last 24 hours.
This downward trend has led to speculations in the market, with concerns revolving around Grayscale's GBTC outflows and the impact of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Additionally, the approval of bitcoin spot ETFs appears to be a "sell the news" event, with the cryptocurrency's price dropping 20% since the ETFs launched on January 11th, resulting in long-term holders capitalizing on profits.
bitcoin's rapid price growth of over 90% in less than a year may have triggered massive sales, while miners might also be contributing to the downward pressure. Miners could be selling their bitcoins ahead of the April 2024 Halving event, which reduces mining rewards, leading to oversupply and a potential price decline.
JPM says it finds spot Bitcoin ETFs flows-to-date as "underwhelming versus the lofty expectations" established in the run-up to their approval.
Bitcoin is falling toward the median line at the support level of 3800 Which may continue toward 35000.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

US Stock Futures Steady During Earnings Week, Rate Cut Expectation Shifts

US stock futures were mostly unchanged to lower on Monday as the market prepares for a significant week of corporate earnings while the realization takes hold that rate cuts may not come as soon as previously expected. Treasury yields rose on the back of relatively hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with investors also awaiting further corporate earnings reports and speeches from other Federal Reserve officials.

In the last trading session on Friday, Wall Street's major indices closed higher, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq 100 all reaching new record highs. Meta Platforms surged over 20%, leading gains in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after it reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded expectations and provided first-quarter revenue guidance above consensus estimates. Amazon also rose more than 7% following upbeat fourth-quarter results from the Seattle-based e-commerce leader.

Attention is now turned towards the upcoming US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data set to be released shortly. The Nasdaq and other major indices continue to break new records, maintaining strong momentum. The next target for the bullish long-term channel appears to be near 18,000, with 17,200 acting as the current support level.

Crypto

Bitcoin's Price Dynamics with Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts

The crypto market could see potential benefits from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in May. Bitcoin experienced a slight increase, surpassing the $43,000 mark as markets expect the start of the rate-cutting cycle in May, during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This expectation is based on current pricing in Fed funds futures contracts, which reflect the market's outlook on future interest rates.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ruled out an earlier rate cut in March, explaining that they need to be more confident about inflation moving down to 2%. However, the analyst suggests that higher interest rates and recent US job data could increase the likelihood of an earlier rate cut due to potential systemic risks in the banking system and rising unemployment rates, particularly affecting regional banks with significant exposure to US commercial real estate.

Regarding the crypto market's reaction, it's expected that cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, may initially experience a sell-off due to the potential delay in the rate cut until May, driven by declining global growth expectations and concerns about a US recession. However, the reversal in monetary policy in May, combined with a weak US dollar, could provide a significant boost as a second-order effect.

After rebounding from the 100-day moving average and targeting the yearly high of $48,000, Bitcoin encountered resistance at $43,578. This resistance could potentially trigger a pullback towards the 100-day moving average. However, if it successfully overcomes this barrier, the price could surge past $48,000. The price movements signal uncertainty after reaching $48,000, and only a clear breakout can pave the way for further advancement toward the next significant target in the $52,000 area.

 

[Z Forex]

US Indices

Stocks are riding high from a victorious session that nudged the S&P 500 close to the 5,000 mark, fueled by robust earnings reports and sustained momentum in the technology sector. The fourth-quarter earnings season has exceeded expectations, bolstering investor confidence in the economy's capacity to sustain corporate profitability.
Walt Disney saw its shares leap over 6% in pre-market trading following a report of stronger-than-anticipated Q1 earnings. The company not only increased its cash dividend by 50% but also projected a positive profit outlook for the year. Similarly, chipmaker and designer Arm experienced a significant surge, nearly 30%, after announcing earnings and profit forecasts that surpassed expectations.
In the realm of Big Tech, Meta Platforms enjoyed a 3% increase on Wednesday, while Nvidia and Microsoft each climbed about 2%, reaching new all-time highs.
Attention is also turning towards economic indicators, with U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data eagerly anticipated. Economists predict Initial Jobless Claims to be around 221K, slightly below last week’s figure of 224K.
The Nasdaq, along with other major U.S. indices, continues to achieve new historical highs, with strong momentum that is expected to persist given the current sentiment and appetite for risk. Looking ahead, the market's bullish trend suggests a long-term target near 18,000, with 17,200 identified as a key support level, underscoring the optimism surrounding future market performance.



Crypto

Bitcoin has surged past $44,000 for the first time since the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, driven by various bullish factors. Notably, Bitcoin whales have been on an accumulation spree, with data from Glassnode indicating a 3.66% increase in addresses holding 1,000 BTC or more over the last two weeks. This accumulation trend follows a buying frenzy after Bitcoin's dip below $40,000, partly attributed to selling pressure from Grayscale, the GBTC Spot Bitcoin ETF issuer. However, Grayscale has recently reduced its BTC sell-offs, contributing to Bitcoin's price recovery. Moreover, institutional demand for Bitcoin has spiked, thanks to Spot Bitcoin ETFs, with asset managers like BlackRock significantly increasing their Bitcoin holdings. The success of these funds is highlighted by their collective possession of over 657,000 BTC, accounting for more than 3% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. Additionally, the anticipation of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong and Thailand's recent removal of VAT on crypto trading further bolster Bitcoin's bullish outlook. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $44,800, marking a 4.4% increase in the last 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap data.
Bitcoin's price is regaining its bullish momentum, with the next challenge being to reach $47,000 on a daily basis and surpass $48,000 to confirm a breakout. The bullish momentum is strong and continuing to build. The next target is in the $51,000-$53,000 area.