Best Thread Potential setups

[HaloTrader]

FTSE100 symetrical triangle broken down. Its met temporary support on the way down, however looks as if a flag is forming and i'm assuming a continuation of the downwards movement.
I shorted the open as it gapped past my trendline and have exited for 30 pips which is unusual for me. And now my new entry is 4371 short. Stop loss very close. Really want to see a close below 4355 before this move is validated. Then my next level is the daily support level of 4295.

Will be interesting to see how price reacts to 4295.

Also if price breaks 4372 i will reverse my position and be long for 10 pips.

This should be interesting - I'm going to scalp the low and high of this range until a breakout.

 

[trader_dante]

Why?

As we've all seen, I'm not always right, but the reason I call some pins "sucker pins" is because there are pins that have a high probability of working and then there are pins that don't. The latter are the "sucker pins".

Of course those that don't appear to have high probability will work excellently sometimes...that's what makes it even harder to distinguish the good ones and keep yourself away from the bad.

You have to realise that a pin indicates some interest contrary to the previous trend. The pin may have formed from profit taking or it may alternatively have formed because there is a fundamental change in direction coming into play.

If that interest is mere profit taking, the previous trend will resume in earnest once the profit taking hiatus is out of the way.

If it is the start of a genuine reversal then we will get a strong follow through and a profitable trade. But there has to be something concrete to cause that change.

A body in motion is not going to stop unless it meets a bigger resistance...or something along those lines, I only got a C for GCSE physics.

This seems to be something that alot of people that trade pins (and a lot of people that criticise them - i.e. you can't make money using candlestick patterns) never seem to get and what from time to time causes me to get so irate. Because the pin means pretty much f*ck all - it's where it occurs that dictates its probability of working, in my opinion.

This Euro one, comes off a good hourly level. There is that to say for it. However, lets put that in a daily context: we are about 40 pips from the neckline of a very clear and significant h&s on the daily TF - everyone is aware of this and everyone is watching it. You can tell that by the number of posts on this thread alone. You better realise that every single professional has seen it too. And even if the market isn't going to follow through to its target for that h&s, the odds would suggest to me, at the absolute minimum it's going to gun for that neckline and try and get some shorts into the market. For that reason, I cannot think of getting long right now.

 

[HaloTrader]

FTSE100 broken out. But interesting the Dow Jones - According to my trendline, is currently testing its trendline 'zone'. Which almost invalidates the break of the FTSE trendline as anything significant on the daily chart movement.
Be interesting if the Dow can get a proper close with bearish movement now. If not i'm very bullish about the entire market Not that my opinion means anything

 

[bfd]

Head and shoulders on EUR/USD Anyone going to play?

Just wondered how people play a head and shoulders pattern like this, what kind of price action do you look for?

For example is it a good idea to let it break through the neck line and then wait for price to re test that level again from the other side and enter the trade at that point(maybe looking for a pinbar at that stage). Or is it better to try and catch the initial break though?

Thanks.

 

[trader_dante]

Just wondered how people play a head and shoulders pattern like this, what kind of price action do you look for?

For example is it a good idea to let it break through the neck line and then wait for price to retrace and hit it again from the other side and enter the trade at that point. Or is it better to try and catch the initial break though?

Thanks.

My preferred method is to try and get short before the break. This is dangerous though as you don't know how many attempts it's going to make before it breaks it. For that I watch the pressure.

The safest way is to get short after the retest.

 

[apmf]

USD/ JPY 4hr

Any views on this chart showing a bearishness. A inside bar and followed by a Bearish Outside Bar on 4hrly usd/jpy . I am thinking to short it below 98.00.

 

[crude_lover]

My preferred method is to try and get short before the break. This is dangerous though as you don't know how many attempts it's going to make before it breaks it. For that I watch the pressure.

The safest way is to get short after the retest.

I would agree on the get short before the break its not to dangerous though if you play it correctly. I tend to put tight stops in and although you may get stopped out on pull backs before the break if you play it right on the actual break out you can easily make back double or more on the small amounts you were stopped out

 

[trader_dante]

Any views on this chart showing a bearishness. A inside bar and followed by a Bearish Outside Bar on 4hrly usd/jpy . I am thinking to short it below 98.00.

For what it's worth, I wouldn't short this no matter what I saw.

It feels to me like it's being accumulated and I've got a topside target of 102.50 before I would consider shorting.

The only thing that would make me change that opinion is if we get a break down through 95.60 odd.

 

[trader_dante]

I would agree on the get short before the break its not to dangerous though if you play it correctly. I tend to put tight stops in and although you may get stopped out on pull backs before the break if you play it right on the actual break out you can easily make back double or more on the small amounts you were stopped out

Fair play. I'm not used to getting stopped out in my trades so having a "several attempts to get it right" approach would screw with my head.

 

[apmf]

For what it's worth, I wouldn't short this no matter what I saw.

It feels to me like it's being accumulated and I've got a topside target of 102.50 before I would consider shorting.

The only thing that would make me change that opinion is if we get a break down through 95.60 odd.

TD, i understand what u mean but if i see a setup like this on a trading range of 98.61- 97.35 should i not short it because it is against the trend. Appreciate your views.
Cheers!

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I was watching usd/yen for two weeks and it that H&S was knocked right out of the park. For that reason alone I stayed away until a clear trend/pattern reveals itself. Dont know how helpful that is.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Vinicius, have you seen the price of 9000 calls on the dow?

 

[vinicius]

Vinicius, have you seen the price of 9000 calls on the dow?

Let me try to undestand something..

What are you looking for? Are you short and expecting 8600 or a break below this level?

What is you macro view?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I'm wating for the nice easy downtrend back to 8000. Anything above 91-95 points to a recovery that just isnt happeneing yet.

Also scratch that call comment. I just realised why its completely redundant lol.

 

[squall321]

what are you guy's thoughts on gbpusd?

 

[trader_dante]

TD, i understand what u mean but if i see a setup like this on a trading range of 98.61- 97.35 should i not short it because it is against the trend. Appreciate your views.
Cheers!

I wouldn't trade just because something is or isn't "with the trend".

Just trade what you see.

 

[squall321]

do you think this is good resistance?

 

[trader_dante]

do you think this is good resistance?

Looks good in theory but it wouldn't seem right to me (on the daily TF) if we were to collapse here.

So I'm on the sidelines with that pair.

Still think the jig is up for the Euro though. Which will probably drag Cable down.

 

[squall321]

gbpusd making a pin on the 4hr??

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Yes .

Yes Man.

How much?