Best Thread Potential setups

[bbmac]

gbpusd

Jesus. These worked out beautifully. All retraced to key levels but Cable was the easiest..Cable retraced right to the 50% fib. Hourly IB at right shoulder

'...CABLE: Snaps back above $1.6200, from rumour react lows of $1.6089, as
traders react to PM Brown's Office calling talk of Brown's resignation
as 'absolute nonsense.'


Rumour quickly denied by Pm's office but a great sell-off down to 50% of the 5507-6661 move up with the confluence of the previous 1hr swing hi/lo zone, where support was found.

 

[trader_dante]

where you get that? aint on my news feed and no market reaction..

No market reaction!

You seen the Euro?

 

[N Rothschild]

down -44? if a country was defaulting the euro would CRASH, gold threw the roof etc..

 

[teojh]

****ing *******s oanda. playing the server down trick again.
lucky im on the right side of eur and gbp but if everything retraces im gone.

 

[trader_dante]

down -44? if a country was defaulting the euro would CRASH, gold threw the roof etc..

It might be down 44 from the open...but it's down 171 from this mornings high.

Anyway, it came from Ran.

Apparently Swedens significant exposure to Latvia has put them under threat of default...or so the rumour mill turns..

Might be true, might not be but one thing is for certain.

This is make or break time for my opinion.

If the Dollar can't rally against the Euro off this it's really f*cking doomed.

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

Great confluence at the bottom there , the prev 1hr sw hi/lo zone, with asc t/line and the 50% fib 5507-6661 as market reversed on denial of the Brown is toast rumour.

This is what i'm see-ing now on 1hr: (and yeh, for the avoidance of future doubt G/L is Good Luck not 'go long' Lol!!)

 

[trader_dante]

This is what i'm see-ing now on 1hr: (and yeh, for the avoidance of future doubt G/L is Good Luck not 'go long' Lol!!)

I wondered why I lost my shirt every time you said GL

 

[teojh]

lol dun worry dante. listen to the tape not bbmac

 

[trader_dante]

lol dun worry dante. listen to the tape not bbmac

Alright Livermore!

 

[bbmac]

I wondered why I lost my shirt every time you said GL

yeh sorry about that

G/S

 

[Technically Fundamental]

wtf is this euro retrace all about?

 

[trader_dante]

wtf is this euro retrace all about?

Everyone became aware of the news and all the professionals used the complete and utter plebs to offload and buy back their short positions?

Or, they realised the trend is up as teojh mentioned below and realised that they can take advantage of the complete and utter plebs (again) to pick up some cheap Euros.

 

[teojh]

haha the other reason is simple. the trend is still short dollars. so its gd not to stay long until the hand is tipped.
got short dollar again, the 1hr inside bars for the main pairs are good entries i tink

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Thought so.

Still looks like is gonna bomb in the longer term though. I expected a bigger move today.

 

[trader_dante]

Imagine you are selling delicious ice cold kiwi juices at a market stall and you made up loads expecting hot weather and it is indeed 100 degrees in the shade and prices are soaring as everyone is thirsty and they are willing to pay higher and higher prices.

Infact, some people are even willing to pay 40 pence more per drink, than the stand right next door just so they don't have to wait in a queue in this heat for an extra two minutes. You shake your head in amazement.

But very slowly the shadows are slowly getting longer. The "edge" has just come off the heat. It's now almost tolerable. And you notice that slowly, people that want to buy are thinking rather than just opening their wallets. Some people have gone home and others are nicking a straw and sharing the drink among two rather than pay £4 for one each.

Now you have made up 500 drinks and you need to charge £2 to breakeven but all day you've been able to get £4 per drink and ideally that's what you would like to continue to get.

But you do a quick calculation and decide that with 500 to sell and only about 200 people hanging around you are going to have no alternative but to drop that price to encourage buyers. But if you drop yours towards the end of the day then so will the stand next door to compete. So you will have to cut again. So if you start trying to "force" buying rather than letting it come naturally then things could collapse pretty quick. And that means lost profit.

Then suddenly, over the radio comes the news that there are no more Kiwis left in the world! Incredibly, they are now extinct. What a turn!!!

WOAH - people are thronging - £4 is being paid like its 4 pence. The queue has doubled. It's quadrupled. It's quintupled.

Should you hold out? Refuse to sell? Christ, you might have the last stock of Kiwis in the world. But then, hang on, obviously kiwis, like any fruit, go bad eventually, so you are still going to have to offload them quickly...should you start charging £5? Maybe £6? People could pay £10 eventually towards evening?

Or should you just make a good business decision and sell all 500 drinks at the good markup you were getting this morning because the days not getting any younger and the fruits not getting any fresher...and right now you got a queue of 500 people all holding out £4 coins each in their greedy little hands.

OK, so its not an exact market analogy but you get my drift.

Seriously, I've been caught in this phenomenon many a time. Be wary of reacting to ALL NEWS.

 

[PaulKing]

Financial Mathematics?

Imagine you are selling delicious ice cold kiwi juices at a market stall and you made up loads expecting hot weather and it is indeed 100 degrees in the shade and prices are soaring as everyone is thirsty and they are willing to pay higher and higher prices.

Infact, some people are even willing to pay 40 pence more per drink, then the stand right next door just so they don't have to wait in a queue in this heat for an extra two minutes. You shake your head in amazement.

But very slowly the shadows are slowly getting longer. The "edge" has just come off the heat. It's now almost tolerable. And you notice that slowly, people that want to buy are thinking rather than just opening their wallets. Some people have gone home and others are nicking a straw and sharing the drink among two rather than pay £4 for one each.

Now you have made up 500 drinks and you need to charge £2 to breakeven but all day you've been able to get £4 per drink and ideally that's what you would like to continue to get.

But you do a quick calculation and decide that with 500 to sell and only about 200 people hanging around you are going to have no alternative but to drop that price to encourage buyers. But if you drop yours towards the end of the day then so will the stand next door to compete. So you will have to cut again. So if you start trying to "force" buying rather than letting it come naturally then things could collapse pretty quick. And that means lost profit.

Then suddenly, over the radio comes the news that there are no more Kiwis left in the world! Incredibly, they are now extinct. Obviously kiwis, like any fruit, go bad eventually, so you are still going to have to offload them quickly but right now - WOAH - people are thronging - £4 is being paid like its 4 pence. The queue has doubled. It's quadrupled. It's quintupled.

Should you start charging £5. Maybe £6? Or should you just make a good business decision and sell all 500 drinks at the good markup you were getting this morning because the days not getting any younger and the fruits not getting any fresher...

OK, so its not an exact market analogy but you get my drift.

Seriously, I've been caught in this phenomenon many a time. Be wary of reacting to ALL NEWS.

Blimey TD, I thought Support / Resistance & Price Action was challenging enough, now you introduce a soft fruit scare to tip the market as you did with oil a while ago

best
Paul

 

[trader_dante]

Blimey TD, I thought Support / Resistance & Price Action was challenging enough, now you introduce a soft fruit scare to tip the market as you did with oil a while ago

best
Paul

It's because someone just contacted me privately and said "wtf is this, this is terrible news for the pound and we're going up" (no it wasn't Aaron).

Not to mention we were at a good s/r pivot when the bounce occured (a good profit taking zone) I would never trade the news - not to mention the fact that this wasn't even news it was a rumour. But even if it was news - the market goes where it wants to go and the technicals will tell you everything. I sincerely believe that.

The two most memorable market movements in my career to date have been:

- Hurricane Katrina destroying the Gulf of Mexico and really seriously threatening Oil supply - coinciding with the top of the market.

- The announcement that there were two days of supply of Wheat left in the entire world with the relaxtion of the limit up rule by the exchanges to allow buyers to buy all they wanted because there simply wasn't enough to go around - coinciding with the top of the market. (surprise!)

 

[trader_dante]

FW, your line in the sand in Corn is working like a dream.

It's gone parabolic.

 

[teojh]

potential trade.
usdjpy. broken out of triangle n formed hourly pin bar on retest.
good trade to take, although i was in at the breakout so not takin this.

 

[LeoE]

potential trade.
usdjpy. broken out of triangle n formed hourly pin bar on retest.
good trade to take, although i was in at the breakout so not takin this.

Interesting, I saw it break out earlier as I was looking for a short setup, never occured to me about a long one