Political betting (in the UK)

[tomorton]

Witney by-election was Conservative hold, at 1.03 - easy money, but not enough for a new car.

No odds were offered on the Batley & Spen by-election, I assume owing to the way the previous MP lost her life.

US Presidential Election will be 08/11. Hillary Clinton down to 1.17.

The UKIP leadership saga rattles on, with Paul Nuttall favourite at 1.50. Results will be announced 28/11.

 

[tomorton]

Government backs new runway at Heathrow, Zac Goldsmith resigns from party to stand as an independent, triggering by-election in Richmond Park.

Odds already available -
Liberal Democrat - 1.80
Zac Goldsmith - 2.25
Conservative - 11.00
Greens - 101.00
Labour - 201.00
UKIP - 201.00

(apparently, bets on these odds are void if Zac Goldsmith does not stand)

Local opposition to third runway is apparently strong, knocking the Conservatives' chances, while the Lib-Dems did really well at Witney last week, hence their short odds.

I'm going to wait a while to make sure the government don't back down on the development and Zac does stand - don't want a repeat of my bet on Steven Woolfe for UKIP leader.

 

[tomorton]

US Presidential eleection -
Maybe some conclusions can be drawn from bookies' odds since the latest FBI email investigation announcement. Clinton is back out to at 1.33, Trump is at 3.50 - so this latest political news has damaged her a little, but not really helped him.

 

[tomorton]

US Presidential election -
Odds now more strongly favouring Hillary Clinton than seen previously, after the FBI backed away from criminal proceedings on emails - 1.20 for her to win, 5.00 for Donald Trump.

This looks likely to exceed the EU referendum as the biggest political betting event in history.

Sleaford & N Hykeham by-election - triggered by Stephen Phillips' resignation - date not announced, yet, no odds available from my bookie on this yet.

Article 50 - Will Article 50 be triggered by 31 March 2017?
Looks pretty even at 1.73 Yes, 2.00 No.

 

[tomorton]

I dunno. First Brexit, now Trump. What next?

 

[barjon]

I dunno. First Brexit, now Trump. What next?

Armageddon

 

[tomorton]

Armageddon

I wouldn't mind betting on that jon but where would I be able to go to spend the winnings?

 

[tomorton]

The Trump result has probably impacted the French presidential election odds considerably.

Odds for the top 5 -
1.67 Alain Juppe (was 2.50)
11.00 Nicolas Sarkozy (was 3.75)
2.50 Marine Le Pen (was 5.00)
19.00 Emmanuel Macron (was 7.00)
29.00 Francois Hollande (was 10.00)

Juppe has increased his lead but Le Pen is clearly riding the populist wave and has pulled well ahead of the rest.

 

[tomorton]

After Presidential Primaries in France over the weekend, Fillon has surprisingly taken the lead in both polls and betting -
Francois Fillon 1.57
Marine Le Pen 2.75
Alain Juppe 10.00
Emmanuel Macron 13.00
Manuel Valls 41.00

 

[timsk]

Stick a pony on Le Penn, Tom. It's the only sure way to keep her out and, if by some chance she wins, so do you!

 

[counter_violent]

Armageddon

What are the odds ?

 

[tomorton]

Finally, something interesting.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603

 

[tomorton]

Winner -

Conservatives - 1/6
No Overall Majority - 5/1
Labour - 16/1
Liberal Democrat - 25/1
UKIP - 100/1

 

[tomorton]

One week on -

Conservative - 1/7 (1.14: improved from 1.17)
No Overall Majority - 11/2 (6.50: weakened from 6.00)
Labour - 14/1 (15.00: improved from 17.00)
Liberal Democrats - 28/1 (29.00: weakened from 26.00)
UKIP - 150/1 (151.00: weakened from 101.00)

Major party election campaign machines gather momentum, LibDems falling behind, UKIP in retreat.

 

[tomorton]

Updated UK General Election odds -
Conservative - rated almost a certainty at 1.07
No Overall Majority - looking less likely, 9.00
Labour - still 15.00
Liberal Democrat - highly unlikely, 51.00
UKIP - 151.00

 

[tomorton]

Macron has won the French Presidential election. The odds for the candidates back in September were as below so he must surely have been a good winner for somebody - but who expected him to win anyway?

2.50 Alain Juppe
3.75 Nicolas Sarkozy
5.00 Marine Le Pen
7.00 Emmanuel Macron
10.00 Francois Hollande
21.00 Manuel Valls
26.00 Francois Bayrou
34.00 Jean-Luc Melenchon

 

[tomorton]

Update of UK General Election odds -
Conservative - 1.03
No Overall Majority - 13.00
Labour - 17.00
LibDems - 101.00
UKIP - 201.00

Conservative majority rated as almost certain. Odds on Conservatives having most seats are even lower at 1.01.

But the odds still say Jeremy Corbyn will be Labour leader 24hrs after the election - 1.22, as against 4.00 he will have stepped down.

The most tragic bet is offered on UKIP gaining even one seat - 9.00.

 

[tomorton]

Update of UK General Election odds -
Conservative - 1.11
No Overall Majority - 8.00
Labour - 12.00
LibDems - 251.00
UKIP - 501.00

Quite a pull-back for Theresa May but still a commanding lead. It seems that even if Labour pedal at their fastest to catch up, they're so far behind the race is still only likely to end with no overall majority, a dead heat if you like. And nobody likes a dead heat in this game.

 

[tomorton]

Seven days to go to the General Election -
Conservative - 1.25
No Overall Majority - 4.50
Labour - 11.00
LibDems - 251.00
UKIP - 501.00

Conservatives still favourites to win with a majority, Labour at 10 to 1 have to be still ranked as an outsider. But startling to see how much ground the Conservative campaign has lost. In the 2015 election, the Conservatives, then under Cameron, emerged with 306 seats. The bookies' favoured outcome next week on this count would be 376-400 Conservative seats, at 3.60 odds. But they're offering 4.00 on 326-375. Odds of losing total seats are 7.00 for 301-325, or 10.00 for 300/less.

There must surely be a painful inquiry at Conservative HQ when the dust settles.

 

[tomorton]

Not much time left to get a bet on for the General Election -
Conservative - 1.20
No Overall Majority - 5.50
Labour - 11.00
LibDems - 251.00
UKIP - 501.00

Conservatives have significantly recovered in last 3 days, if that means anything at all. They had been out at 1.33 at the weekend. After having managed 1.03 three weeks ago, this must demonstrate they need a new campaign manager, if not a new leader asap.