Plain Vanilla Options Trades.

[andycan]

It would be very interesting to see all members who posted or are posting or intend to post on that thread participating in this vote.

All those in favour of the writers having the edge please post W.

All those in favour ot the buyers having the edge please post B.

Thank you.

any takers willing to vote B
so far all i see if W i wonder why???

 

[SOCRATES]

No reason why you couldn't do that, but it still amounts to a short (synthetic) straddle.

How about this for an example - the underlying becomes volatile and bombs 5% and touches the strikes. So you short the equivalent number of futures contracts and.....the underlying rallies 5%. It happens, often, because volatility is a 2-way street, meaning if it's volatile on the way down, it'll be volatile on the way up.

How can you pontificate here about that which you know zero about ? How ?

Now you are pontificating about volatility, and on my thread...I am telling you....this is outrageous !

Volatility is a word to describe what appears to be erratic movements in price behaviour made to appear sort of random and unpredictable to those who do not understand price action. ...which obviously from your comments on another thread about tossing coins in the air and so on, must include you..

It is a very useful wordle to keep nearly every body baffled.

 

[Profitaker]

This is the main reason with which I found fault in the "Wot?" series. There is no way that anyone can make forecasts because of the uncertainty of world events. Socrates would have lost a packet, trading as he is doing, in 1987 or in the Twin Towers massacre. But all traders take these risks on board. Socrates is buying today and he will stand or fall by his result. What he is not doing is producing prices over a 3 month period, six months ago.

That would, definitely, be open to suspicion.

While we are at it. Is anyone monitoring these purchases? I don't have the facilities to do it.

Split

You don't need to go back that far. Just look what would have happened in May 2006 to anybody selling June Puts - they would have lost a packet !

I'm trading the front month so was watching - 3 lots of the 6125's did go through at 54 after he made the call on this thread. Could be coincidence or could be that he has access to the board and noticed 3 lots waiting or could be he made the trade. Think you'll have to judge him based on what you know of his character

 

[zupcon]

any takers willing to vote B
so far all i see if W i wonder why???

Probably because nowhere on the hundreds of thousands of posts on this forum has ANYONE AT ANY TIME said that buyers have an edge over writer. That might just be the reason why :!:

It really is like banging your head against a wall

 

[Profitaker]

The other interesting thing Splitlink, since selling Puts is a bullish position, would he make more money from an alternative bullish option position, namely buying the Feb 6275 Calls ? These are currently 44-45 and the same distance OTM as the 6125 Puts.

 

[the blades]

just a general question from the dunces camp but if I post some short trades, and I make a profit, have I proved that it is better to be short than long?

UTB

 

[andycan]

Probably because nowhere on the hundreds of thousands of posts on this forum has ANYONE AT ANY TIME said that buyers have an edge over writer. That might just be the reason why :!:

It really is like banging your head against a wall

yes my thoughts exactly
most of the votes by people i see in the know are W
to believe that neither has the advantage is simply a lack of knowledge and understanding
and that has been shown on the other thread

 

[SOCRATES]

This is the main reason with which I found fault in the "Wot?" series. There is no way that anyone can make forecasts because of the uncertainty of world events. Socrates would have lost a packet, trading as he is doing, in 1987 or in the Twin Towers massacre. But all traders take these risks on board. Socrates is buying today and he will stand or fall by his result. What he is not doing is producing prices over a 3 month period, six months ago.

That would, definitely, be open to suspicion.

While we are at it. Is anyone monitoring these purchases? I don't have the facilities to do it.

Split

You are wrong. Everything ....absolutely everything is already decided in advance, but to even begin to try to explain it to you would involve the equivalent effort of explaining what the Southern Ocean and the Antartic is like to a Bedouin in the middle of the Sahara Desert., and I have neither the inclination nor the patience nor the time to do it, sorry.

What I am not doing, you say, is producing prices over a 3 month period six months ago.

This is correct.

This is because I am interested in futurology for the purpose of guesstimating prices accurately in the future and not inaccurately in the past, u c ?

 

[ian]

This is the main reason with which I found fault in the "Wot?" series. There is no way that anyone can make forecasts because of the uncertainty of world events. Socrates would have lost a packet, trading as he is doing, in 1987 or in the Twin Towers massacre. But all traders take these risks on board. Socrates is writing puts today and he will stand or fall by his result. What he is not doing is producing prices over a 3 month period, six months ago.

That would, definitely, be open to suspicion.

While we are at it. Is anyone monitoring these trades? I don't have the facilities to do it.

Split

Try here....
http://www.liffe-data.com/default.aspx

 

[SOCRATES]

just a general question from the dunces camp but if I post a few short trades, and I make a profit, have I proved that it is better to be short than long?

UTB

No, because just posting a few short trades is early days and could be attributed to luck, u c ?

But when you look more deeply you will realise it takes more than luck to be able to get it consistently right.

Have you voted yet by the way ?

 

[SOCRATES]

Try here....
http://www.liffe-data.com/default.aspx

Yes, good thank you Ian.

This is excellent for members who wish to follow events and who do not have a datafeed.

 

[SOCRATES]

Probably because nowhere on the hundreds of thousands of posts on this forum has ANYONE AT ANY TIME said that buyers have an edge over writer. That might just be the reason why :!:

It really is like banging your head against a wall

Zupcon it is not that people bang their heads against a wall.

It is not perceptionally as obvious as that.

The wall is a glass wall and not an opaque solid wall.

If it were, people would not have problems identifying it and hence correcting their perceptios.

The difficulty is that the wall is there but because it remains for the large part undetected, it is as if it did not ......exist...

 

[CYOF]

This is the main reason with which I found fault in the "Wot?" series. There is no way that anyone can make forecasts because of the uncertainty of world events. Socrates would have lost a packet, trading as he is doing, in 1987 or in the Twin Towers massacre. But all traders take these risks on board. Socrates is buying today and he will stand or fall by his result. What he is not doing is producing prices over a 3 month period, six months ago.

That would, definitely, be open to suspicion.

While we are at it. Is anyone monitoring these purchases? I don't have the facilities to do it.

Split

Professional Options Traders only Hedge when required.

This can only be taught by someone who knows how to teach it. :idea:

Some people teach correctly - others are but Inspired :idea:

I can assure you that all of these trades are, indeed, TRUTHFUL

 

[Mr. Charts]

"Professional Options Traders only Hedge when required."

cyof, that is simply not correct in the sense that most do not take a purely directional view most of the time.
Richard

 

[CYOF]

And just to show you all - AGAIN - I will do another 3 contracts.

The price may or may not be the same - but I am not worried.

Why, because I have a Master Trader as my teacher - THAT IS WHY.

I do not listen TO THOSE WHO ARE BUT INSPIRED :idea:

I ONLY LISTEN TO THOSE THAT KNOW THE FACTS :idea:

 

[SOCRATES]

The other interesting thing Splitlink, since selling Puts is a bullish position, would he make more money from an alternative bullish option position, namely buying the Feb 6275 Calls ? These are currently 44-45 and the same distance OTM as the 6125 Puts.

Yes but as you have put him on ignore you cannot expect to ask him can you ?

And there again, as L has said to you many times, you are your own worst enemy, and that everything that happens to you you bring upon yourself......u c or not c ?

Because now if you were to come off ignore and were to ask him ....."well" he says "he does not rate your chances".... ...he says disrespect and rudeness and malice "cannot go unpunished", see ?

 

[SOCRATES]

And just to show you all - AGAIN - I will do another 3 contracts.

The price may or may not be the same - but I am not worried.

Why, because I have a Master Trader as my teacher - THAT IS WHY.

I do not listen TO THOSE WHO ARE BUT INSPIRED :idea:

I ONLY LISTEN TO THOSE THAT KNOW THE FACTS :idea:

I am informed the position is filled.

I will leave you to announce it if you like.

The thing is, it is not prudent for you to leave your desk and wander off just like that...

Today happens to be safe, but you never know .....

I have been on the lookout for black swans but so far not a single one in sight.:cheesy:

 

[SOCRATES]

"Professional Options Traders only Hedge when required."

cyof, that is simply not correct in the sense that most do not take a purely directional view most of the time.
Richard

I don't think he meant hedge, I think it is a typo and he really meant margin, as in margin call.

 

[the blades]

No, because just posting a few short trades is early days and could be attributed to luck, u c ?

But when you look more deeply you will realise it takes more than luck to be able to get it consistently right.

Have you voted yet by the way ?

so to prove that you get it consistantly right, how many trades will you be posting?

No, I haven't voted - I have no knowledge of options and I wont guess. But as with all trades I'm sure the skill of the buyer and seller has a massive part to play?

Cheers,
UTB

PS - credit where its due for putting your **** on the block. I'm not sure (or qualified to say) if it proves the underlying point, but it is a quantative post non the less.

 

[Mr. Charts]

Hello, my friend, even if he did mean as you suggest he would have sounded somewhat unclear...
FWIW, I would expect your trades have a 90%+ probability of success since I'm confident your position management will be spot on as usual ;-)
Richard