Pipcrawler's Picks Journal

We’re back to another wonderful week of forex trading, but unfortunately, it’s going to be a short and possibly boring one. We have a light economic release schedule this week, and with the US markets on vacation from Thursday on, we will probably see low volatility and maybe a spike here or there…pretty much tough trading conditions. Don’t worry though, I’ve managed to come up with any idea or two this week, and for tonight we will be taking a look at EUR/JPY.

We have a couple of events this evening which will hopefully cause a stir in EUR/JPY. First, we have the release of the Bank of Japan meeting minutes at 12:00 am EST. There is speculation that the minutes will show no hurry for the BOJ to raise rates and that the Yen will weaken leading up to the report. This may setup a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trade if the pair reaches the previous high near 151.70.

Also, ECB Pres. Jean-Claude Trichet will be speaking later today, in which he may reiterate the ECB idea that higher borrowing costs are needed to keep inflation in check.

So, we have a couple of fundamental reasons for the pair to drift higher. So, we will have a sell order at 151.70 for this possibility.

Of course, we will have a long trade ready in case the pair drifts lower in which it may meet resistance or reverse at the 151.00 – 151.10 area. This would be a good long area as the pair is showing higher lows on the longer term charts. We may possibly get in an uptrend at a good price.

If either trade is triggered, please close the other entry orders to avoid the open position closing prematurely.

Long EUR/JPY @ 151.10, stop @ 150.90, pt1 @ 151.30, pt2 @ 151.65

Or

Short EUR/JPY @ 151.70, stop @ 151.90, pt1 @ 151.50, pt2 @151.30

By the way – there’s an article on the current low volatility environment in the forex market at DailyFX. It’s definitely an eye opener and gets ya thinking on what may lay ahead for us in 2007. Check it out!
 

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Last Post: No trade triggered

This will be the last “Pick of the Day” for the week as I will be taking off tomorrow to be with the family for the holiday weekend.

Tonight’s pick will focus on the Loonie and the Canadian Consumer Price Index report, which is to be released tomorrow morning at 7:00 am EST. Recent Canadian economic data has been significantly weak, especially today’s retail sales number which was reported much lower than economists forecasted at -1.2% headline/-0.9% core.

The inflation reports tomorrow are forecasted weaker on a monthly basis, most notably the core number at 0.1% versus 0.6% in the previous month, but stronger on a yearly basis with the headline number up 1.0% and 1.7% at the core. I see the pair taking more notice of the yearly numbers by drifting lower, but USD/CAD can drift either way before the report is released.

After the report is released, we will probably see some volatility. Being that the markets have been quiet and ranging, we will look to fade any volatility and go long at support areas, or go short at resistance areas.

In last night’s trade, I overestimated the size of the range, so for tonight’s trade we will bring our entry orders in tighter by using pivot point levels. Here we go:

Short USD/CAD at 1.1480, stop at 1.1500, pt1 at 1.1460, pt2 at 1.1440

Or

Long USD/CAD at 1.1440, stop at 1.1420, pt1 at 1.1460, pt at 1.1480


Please cancel opposite order once a position has been entered. Good luck and good trading!
 
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