One Trade a Week

[dmt257]

I finished Stan's book the other week. Very interesting, very simple. When I get round to trading stocks I will be basing my method around everything in his book most likely.

Highly reccommended.

 

[isatrader]

isa

I looked at your choice of BT.

From my reading of the daily chart (I generally ignore volume now), it appears that BT has broken out, then dropped down to check that previous resistance is now support.

Next stop £2.10+

in my humble opinion. ;-)

Thanks Slip, I hope you're right, I could do with a good week after the last few.

Weinsteins rule regarding volume on breakouts is that you should "Never trust a breakout that isn't accompanied by a significant increase in volume. If it doesn't, the probabilities are very high, that at best, you've got a mediocre winner on your hands that will advance only a few points. At worst, the stock will turn out to be a false breakout that will soon be back in the trading range."

 

[isatrader]

Positions Update

Attached is the positions update and the thumbnails of today's market moves. Big recovery for TradeTheEasyWay today and Mike takes the lead so far.

 

[SlipperyC]

I used to base trading decisions on things like; volume, rsi, momentum etc.. but lost out a hell of a lot due to biased thinking.

For example, thinking that because RSI is very low then the asset price will rebound (wrong; RSI can stay low forever if it chooses!). As for volume, I think that its not such a cut and dried affair - especially these days with algorithmic trading etc.

The 'controllers' like to find innovative ways to manipulate the reactions of market participants in my opinion and the only way I can see through this is just looking for price patterns.

'Two-penneth' added! :whistling

Thanks Slip, I hope you're right, I could do with a good week after the last few.

Weinsteins rule regarding volume on breakouts is that you should "Never trust a breakout that isn't accompanied by a significant increase in volume. If it doesn't, the probabilities are very high, that at best, you've got a mediocre winner on your hands that will advance only a few points. At worst, the stock will turn out to be a false breakout that will soon be back in the trading range."

 

[isatrader]

I used to base trading decisions on things like; volume, rsi, momentum etc.. but lost out a hell of a lot due to biased thinking.

For example, thinking that because RSI is very low then the asset price will rebound (wrong; RSI can stay low forever if it chooses!). As for volume, I think that its not such a cut and dried affair - especially these days with algorithmic trading etc.

The 'controllers' like to find innovative ways to manipulate the reactions of market participants in my opinion and the only way I can see through this is just looking for price patterns.

'Two-penneth' added! :whistling

I think the argument he made in the book was that there's an opportunity cost to consider when trading as there may be loads of stocks making patterns you would trade but you have to stack the odds in your favour so that you pick the A+ stock and not a B or a C candidate.

 

[SlipperyC]

Fair comment.

And I suppose that if I was trading stocks I would tend to look for positive price behaviour / relative strength for company X in industry group Y as confirmation of a pattern.

Guess I'm just too tied up in index trading.

Except for taking out a long in UK Coal a couple of weeks ago when it slumped to around 36p. Couldn't resist it!

 

[SlipperyC]

Phew! Good decision on the DAX ... so far!

Looks like it might try for 7600 again!

 

[isatrader]

My buy stop at 197.1 for BT Group (BT-A.L) was hit at 10.16am

Here's the full trade details:

Trade Details:
BT Group (LSE:BT.A)
Direction: Long
Entry: 197.1
Stop: 190.9
Target: 206.6

Percentage Risk: 3.25% (-1.63% ATR Adjusted)
Target Gain: 4.77% (2.50% ATR Adjusted)

Risk Ratio: 1.47

Daily ATR(200): 3.8 (1.93%)
Weekly ATR(52): 9.31 (4.72%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 193.30
1x ATR: 200.90
1.5x ATR: 202.80
2x ATR: 204.70

Hopefully this one will go to plan :whistling

 

[isatrader]

Pat494 you are out of QQ.L at your target price of 118. Here's the closing trade:

Closing Trade

Qinitiq (LSE:QQ.)
Direction: Short
Entry: 120.8
Exit: 118

Percentage Gain: 2.37%

ATR Adjusted Percentage Gain: 0.89%

Trade Grade: C

Well done Pat. This puts you just in the lead so far from the closed positions.

 

[isatrader]

Intra-day Positions Update

Here's the current intra-day thumbnails of this weeks positions and the general market.

 

[SlipperyC]

Wow .. helluva slide!

 

[isatrader]

Wow .. helluva slide!

S&P 500 retesting the breakout level at 1344. If that holds then the stage 2 continuation breakout is on IMO. So am watching closely.

Edit: S&P 500 still looks weak, but is lingering near the breakout level support. Gold and Silver tanking and dollar strong.

Edit: I've gone long in the S&P in my account as I think it's going to hold here. But I'm probably wrong.

 

[isatrader]

Positions Update

Attached is the positions update for today. Pat494 takes the lead for the week.

 

[CityTrader90]

I just picked up Stan Weinsteins book based on IsaTraders post and reading the reviews of it (which were really solid). Hopefully I can learn some profitable ideas! From the reviews it doesn't seem like his ideas are over complicated and are more simplistic which I like. Sometimes reading advice in trading books is like reading Japanese!

 

[CityTrader90]

I'll exit my trade please.

 

[isatrader]

I'll exit my trade please.

Hi CityTrader90, your exit time on the thread was 3.50pm so the closing price I have is 253.5

Here's the closing trade details:

Closing Trade

Man Group (LSE:EMG)
Direction: Short
Entry: 260
Exit: 253.5

Percentage Gain: 2.56%

ATR Adjusted Percentage Gain: 0.84%

Trade Grade: C

Well done CT. A good first trade

 

[CityTrader90]

Well done CT. A good first trade]

Thank you!

Got a nice move today with it. :clap:

CT

 

[tradeAweek]

isatrader: Excellent job for starting and managing this thread. I'm a new user to t2win and would like to participate by posting my trades (1 per week). I'm a discretionary forex trader and trade in the direction of the 4 hr trend. I can't decide on my trade on Sunday. I need to look at how the week shapes up and take the trade on the pair that is trending. How do I participate if I cannot decide on the instrument and direction on Sunday?

 

[isatrader]

isatrader: Excellent job for starting and managing this thread. I'm a new user to t2win and would like to participate by posting my trades (1 per week). I'm a discretionary forex trader and trade in the direction of the 4 hr trend. I can't decide on my trade on Sunday. I need to look at how the week shapes up and take the trade on the pair that is trending. How do I participate if I cannot decide on the instrument and direction on Sunday?

The deadline for putting in trades is Sunday night, but you can submit your trade earlier, say on a Friday and use a "warehoused order" which means that you will enter manually on the thread during the following week, so all you'd need to specify is the forex pair you want to trade, that it's a warehoused order and the direction of the trade. I'll then work out the initial ATR targets based on Fridays closing price and ATR figures for that pair; which I'll update once you enter during the following week.

So if you are using 4 hour charts then I would imagine you could see a initial developing trend on an FX pair on the Friday or the weekend. But if it would mess with your style then I understand. But for the fairness of the competition everyone has to submit their trades at the same time, which is the weekend, otherwise the admin for me would be too much to manage.

 

[isatrader]

Positions Update

Heavy volume selling day in the markets especially for commodities, the dollar is strong and bonds are strong. Below is the positions update