One Trade a Week

[isatrader]

Q2 League Table

dmt257's second weekly win this quarter pushes him back to the top of the Q2 leader board with a 3% gain. Here's the league table so far this quarter.

Q2 League Table

Name_________ATR Adjusted Percentage
dmt257___________3.00%
Pat494____________0.94%
A_fr______________-0.04%
SlipperyC__________-0.35%
isatrader__________-0.75%
Canto1922_________-1.05%
wigtrade___________-1.56%
TradeTheEasyWay___-2.20%

Name_________Performance Points
Pat494_____________2
dmt257____________2

Thanks to everyone in the group for their continued hard work and trading so openly. It's a rare thing on a forum like this so I just wanted to thank everyone again.

It's another bank holiday weekend in the UK this weekend so any UK trades will have until Monday night for submission. But for everything else you can submit up until Sunday night as normal. If anyone new wants to join in then please do. Rules are in the opening post.

Have a good weekend.

 

[SlipperyC]

Can't believe I was pipped at the post!! Grrr!! ;-)

The DAX did a good job of blowing right through 7400 like it didn't exist.

Was going to short it from Monday, but have a horrible feeling its going to do some sort of extreme, parabolic move up. Time to ponder.

isa;
Thanks for all of the continued hard work in compiling these stats and running the forum.

 

[isatrader]

Week 14 Pick - BT-A.L

BT (LSE:BT.A)

Sector: FTSE 350 Sector Fixed Line Telecommunications (NMX6530)

Order Type: Warehoused

Direction: Long

Warehoused Entry: Will manually enter during the week, I'm looking for a higher close on Tuesday to confirm the candlestick buy-if signal.

Initial Stop loss: 190.9
Initial Target: 206.50

ATR (200 Day): 3.8 (1.93%)
ATR (52 Week): 9.31 (4.73%)

ATR Targets: - Based on estimate entry point of 197
-1x ATR: 193.20
1x ATR: 200.80
1.5x ATR: 202.70
2x ATR: 204.60

Entry Reason
I've deviated from picking stocks with good relative strength the last few weeks and the results haven't been good. So I'm going back to what was working for me as it's easy to get sidetracked and just trade any old product because the chart looks good without the foundations in place. So this week the S&P 500 has been moving higher again, breaking out of the recent range. However, I've noticed a change in sentiment, as for the last three weeks money has been moving into bonds (TLT) and into more defensive large cap stocks. This sector rotation leads me to think we are in the late stage of the current bull run, but that it isn't necessarily over yet and that I should now be looking to play the larger cap stocks on the long side instead of small cap ones.

So this week I looked through the sectors and noted that the telecoms sector is showing good relative strength versus the market. I looked through the whole sector and BT stood out for me as it made a second double top breakout on Thursday which gave it a weekly close above the Stage 3 range it's been in since the start of the year. All the technicals look in good positions and I'm hoping to capture some of the sector rotation into telecoms via BT.

Sector Data

Sector - Telecommunications
Sector Bullish Percent - Bear Correction at 56% in Xs
Percent Positive Trend - Bull Confirmed at 54% in Xs
Percent RS Positive - Bull Confirmed at 66% in Xs
Percent RS in X's - Bull Confirmed at 60% in Xs

Stock Data

Technical Attributes: 4 of 5
RS vs. Market - Buy in Xs
Trend - Turned Positive on 10/04/2010
Pattern- Broke a Double Top on 04/28/2011
Vertical Price Objective - Bullish Price Obj: 236.0

Below is the charts of BT, the telecoms sector and the FTSE 100

 

[Pat494]

I see 1 analyst in my intray suggests that Microsoft is a good buy. However I am not convinced as it fell 2% on its earnings report, coupled with the fact that the CEO looks out of his depth when explaining MS policy.
So
I am going to have another go with Qinitiq, but short. Most of my 13 regulars are looking a bit flat now. The chart looks bearish

Qinitiq
market
short
TP 118
SL 130

 

[isatrader]

Qinitiq
market
short
TP 118
SL 130

Thanks Pat for the kind words in the recommendation above. Hopefully the effort will pay off eventually. I had a look at Microsoft that you mentioned and on a relative strength basis it only gets a 1 out of 5 score so I would personally avoid it as my plan is to only trade stocks that score 3 or higher on a relative strength basis vs the market and it's peers. Two alternative stocks in the same sector that currently have a score of 5 out of 5 are ADSK and ORCL.

Anyway back to your pick. Here's your ATR targets:

ATR Targets - based on Fridays close of 120.9 for QQ.L

Daily ATR(200) = 3.23 (2.67%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 7.75 (6.41%)

-1x ATR: 124.13
1x ATR: 117.67
1.5x ATR: 116.06
2x ATR: 114.44

Good luck

 

[CityTrader90]

Hi

Would I be able to join the group and post my picks every week?

TIA CT

 

[isatrader]

Hi

Would I be able to join the group and post my picks every week?

TIA CT

Yep, anyone can join in at anytime. Rules are in the first post, but to get a best idea of how it works then read a whole week of the thread. So the most recent week started on page 111.

Your pick needs to be in by midnight (British Standard Time) on a Sunday and has to include a stop loss and a target.

I hope you'll join in.

 

[CityTrader90]

Thanks. I read the rules etc. I'll read the most recent week to make sure I pick up everything. I'll post my pick soon!

Note: I'm still not trading live as I'm still learning.

 

[isatrader]

Thanks. I read the rules etc. I'll read the most recent week to make sure I pick up everything. I'll post my pick soon!

Note: I'm still not trading live as I'm still learning.

That's ok, most trade their pick in their actual account as well, but some use the thread to demo trade or trade products that they don't have funds to in their real account. The aim of the thread is to help us all learn to be better traders with a little bit of competition for fun.

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

Hi Guys,

I've got some ground to make up so.....

NASDAQ: HERO
Oil holding up well, about to break out
Very postive close on Friday
Entry: 6.10
Stop: 5.40
Target: 9.80

Mike

 

[isatrader]

Hi Guys,

I've got some ground to make up so.....

NASDAQ: HERO
Oil holding up well, about to break out
Very postive close on Friday
Entry: 6.10
Stop: 5.40
Target: 9.80

Mike

Thanks Mike, here's your ATR targets for Hercules Offshore:

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 0.21 (3.44%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 0.54 (8.85%)

-1x ATR: 5.89
1x ATR: 6.31
1.5x ATR: 6.42
2x ATR: 6.52

Good luck

 

[CityTrader90]

Man Group - Short
Entry - Market
Stop - 252.10
Target - 244

GL everyone.

CT90

 

[isatrader]

Man Group - Short
Entry - Market
Stop - 252.10
Target - 244

GL everyone.

CT90

Thanks CT90, here's your initial ATR targets for Man Group based on Fridays close of 249.7

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 7.92 (3.17%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 19.3 (7.73%)

-1x ATR: 257.62
1x ATR: 241.78
1.5x ATR: 237.82
2x ATR: 233.86

Good luck

 

[dmt257]

My trade.....

USD/CAD short.

Warehoused.

Reasoning
Long term downtrend. Broken through support/BRN. Bearish engulfing on the daily. Trading into plenty of space. The dollar has been incredibly weak for a while, but is still too strong imo, if that makes sense. I really want to see that BRN/ resistance tested before then going short hence Ive warehoused it.

Best of luck everyone.

 

[isatrader]

My trade.....

USD/CAD short.

Warehoused.

Reasoning
Long term downtrend. Broken through support/BRN. Bearish engulfing on the daily. Trading into plenty of space. The dollar has been incredibly weak for a while, but is still too strong imo, if that makes sense. I really want to see that BRN/ resistance tested before then going short hence Ive warehoused it.

Best of luck everyone.

Thanks dmt, here's your initial targets based on Fridays close of 0.9446 for USD/CAD. I'll update these once you have an entry point.

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 0.0069 (0.73%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 0.0230 (2.43%)

-1x ATR: 0.9515
1x ATR: 0.9377
1.5x ATR: 0.9343
2x ATR: 0.9308

Good luck

 

[SlipperyC]

my trade;

DAX LIMIT SHORT

entry; 7550
stop; 7630

target; 7400

too far, too fast, need to test support.

 

[wigtrade]

New month, new picks, new charts, new contestants. It's all happening here

Tapping into fx this week as my UK picks will be stuck in the blocks with tomorrow's day off...

EURGBP SELL
Warehoused order

Weekly has broken out of a long term wedge to the northside and found resistance at previous supres level. (CHART 1)

Daily enforcing the message that 8920 is a hella hella supply line in this currency
(CHART 2)


Realistically i'm trading the retrace of the breakout which considering we only have a week to play with is a suitable timeframe to (hopefully) ride a short back down to somewhere around 87

Good luck all
cheers
Wig

 

[SlipperyC]

Bloody bin-laden!

Is it too late to raise my limit entry to 7600 and stop to 7720, target 7400?

 

[isatrader]

Bloody bin-laden!

Is it too late to raise my limit entry to 7600 and stop to 7720, target 7400?

I thought you might want to do that, but I've got to be cold like a broker would if you placed a limit order to keep it realistic and fair for everyone. That is one the pitfalls when using a limit order or a buy stop order unfortunately. So your limit order for the DAX was filled at 7550. Here's the full trade details:

Trade Details:
Dax Index (DBI DAX)
Direction: Short
Entry: 7550
Stop: 7630
Target: 7400

Percentage Risk: 1.06% (-0.87% ATR Adjusted)
Target Gain: 2.03% (1.68% ATR Adjusted)

Risk Ratio: 1.91

Daily ATR(200): 91.29 (1.21%)
Weekly ATR(52): 244.7 (3.24%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 7641.29
1x ATR: 7458.71
1.5x ATR: 7413.07
2x ATR: 7367.42

You may still be on the right side of this, but just not at the entry point you would have wanted unfortunately.

 

[isatrader]

New month, new picks, new charts, new contestants. It's all happening here

Tapping into fx this week as my UK picks will be stuck in the blocks with tomorrow's day off...

EURGBP SELL
Warehoused order

Weekly has broken out of a long term wedge to the northside and found resistance at previous supres level. (CHART 1)

Daily enforcing the message that 8920 is a hella hella supply line in this currency
(CHART 2)


Realistically i'm trading the retrace of the breakout which considering we only have a week to play with is a suitable timeframe to (hopefully) ride a short back down to somewhere around 87

Good luck all
cheers
Wig

Thanks wig, here's your initial targets based on Fridays close of 0.8862 which I will update once you have an entry point.

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 0.0062 (0.70%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 0.0186 (2.10%)

-1x ATR: 0.8924
1x ATR: 0.8800
1.5x ATR: 0.8769
2x ATR: 0.8738

Good luck