One Trade a Week

[SlipperyC]

Nice bounce on the DAX today!!

Grrrrrrr.

Its a tricky balance; not to be too hasty in closing trades, or too greedy for profit!

 

[isatrader]

SlipperyC your stop loss on the DAX at 7180 was hit at 11.10am. Here is you closing trade details:

Closing Trade

DAX Index (DBI DAX)
Direction: Short
Entry: 7200
Exit: 7180

Percentage Gain: 0.28%
ATR Adjusted Percentage Gain: 0.22%

Trade Grade: C-

Well done Slip, at least it's a small win and as the majority is doing quite badly this week it could even be a winner.

 

[isatrader]

Wigtrade you stop loss of 340 on EZJ.L was hit at 12.17pm. Here are the closing details:

Closing Trade

EasyJet (LSE:EZJ)
Direction: Short
Entry: 319
Exit: 340

Percentage Loss: -6.18%
ATR Adjusted Percentage Loss: -1.78%

Trade Grade: F

Unlucky wig, you got whipsawed in and out of this one.

 

[isatrader]

Positions Update

Below is the positions update spreadsheet. Only two positions are still open and Pat494 leads so far this week.

 

[isatrader]

A good move in your KESA.L trade today Pat. Looks like it's going to be the winner this week.

 

[Pat494]

A good move in your KESA.L trade today Pat. Looks like it's going to be the winner this week.

Think I had better exit while the going's good

 

[isatrader]

Think I had better exit while the going's good

Thanks Pat, your exit time was 3.33pm so the closing price for KESA.L was 116. Here's your closing trade details:

Closing Trade

Kesa Electricals (LSE:KESA)
Direction: Long
Entry: 111.6
Exit: 116

Percentage Gain: 3.94%
ATR Adjusted Percentage Gain: 1.07%

Trade Grade: B

Well done Pat, this is could well be the winner this week as there's only position left open now.

 

[isatrader]

Positions Update

Attached is the updated positions spreadsheet for today. Pat closed his KESA.L trade for a solid 1.07 ATR move earning him a B grade and what looks to be the possible winner this week unless the trade in AMMD for A_fr comes to life tomorrow.

 

[SlipperyC]

Grrr. MUST.LEARN.TO.STOP.MOVING.STOPS.TOO.QUICKLY!

 

[Canto1922]

I'm going to be away for a couple of weeks so won't be around for competition Isa. Anyone any idea where the UK equity markets are going? Seem to be hovering at the moment & I'm not sure whether next move is going to be up or down as positives / negatives seem in balance..

 

[isatrader]

I'm going to be away for a couple of weeks so won't be around for competition Isa. Anyone any idea where the UK equity markets are going? Seem to be hovering at the moment & I'm not sure whether next move is going to be up or down as positives / negatives seem in balance..

Unfortunately, I don't think anyone could tell you that as it's always just each persons best guess based on the information they choose to look at. Pat's weekly S&P 500 prediction thread usually shows how different everyone views it. My person view at the moment is that we're at a pivot point between the short and medium term moving averages so it could go either way, so I'm standing aside for now. But the S&P 500 has made lower lows and lower highs for the last 7 days, which the FTSE takes it's cues from, so until that changes the path of least resistance is down IMO. But someone else will see it differently so just trade what you see personally and follow your plan, as other peoples opinions will lose you money in the long run.

 

[Canto1922]

Thanks Isa, & yes, a difficult call. Think I'll stay out a bit longer & see where things are in 2 weeks.

 

[isatrader]

AMMD looks like it's opening around where it closed yesterday, so it's looking more likely that it's going to be another win for Pat this week.

 

[isatrader]

It was a down week for the majority this week, but we can take a little bit of solace in that the markets were down as well. Pat494 was this weeks winner with a solid 1.07% move in KESA.L

Here are the results and Q2 league table.

Week 11 Results

Name_________ATR Adjusted Percentage
Pat494____________1.07%
SlipperyC__________0.22%
A_fr______________-0.04%
TradeTheEasyWay___-0.55%
dmt257___________-0.86%
isatrader__________-1.17%
Canto1922________-1.62%
wigtrade__________-1.78%

Q2 League Table

Name_________ATR Adjusted Percentage
dmt257___________1.68%
Pat494____________1.60%
isatrader___________0.11%
TradeTheEasyWay___-0.03%
A_fr______________-0.04%
SlipperyC__________-0.17%
Canto1922_________-1.05%
wigtrade___________-1.38%

Name_________Performance Points
dmt257____________1
Pat494_____________1

Don't forget to get your picks in as usual by the end of the weekend.

Below is the trades spreadsheet of this weeks trades.

 

[isatrader]

Week 12 Pick - HOIL.L

Heritage Oil (HOIL.L)

Sector: Oil & Gas Producers (NMX0530)

Order Type: Warehoused

Direction: Long

Warehoused Entry: Will manually enter during the week, but I will reassess going long if it drops below 255 on Monday.

Initial Stop loss: 254.4
Initial Target: 305.7

ATR (200 Day): 14.28 (5.29%)
ATR (52 Week): 37.99 (14.07%)

ATR Targets: - Based on estimate entry point of 270
-1x ATR: 255.72
1x ATR: 284.28
1.5x ATR: 291.42
2x ATR: 298.56

Entry Reason
Last week the market rolled over but it found support at the short term moving averages and bounced a bit at the end of the week giving me a short term buy signal on the daily charts. The weekly charts however, were less positive and gave a sell-if sign, so I'm cautious going into next week as the weekly sign has more weight for me. But I think we should have a positive start to week if there's no significant news over the weekend to change Fridays positive sentiment.

The Oil & Gas Sector gave the same signals as the general market so I've chosen a previous pick Heritage Oil as it is approaching key support and it gave a daily buy signal on Friday. However, there was no volume confirmation of the signal so I'm cautious on my entry point and will use a warehoused order to try and get a good intra-day entry point somewhere between 255 and 270 if possible so that it's within my 1 ATR risk tolerance.

Technically I can see some divergences on the daily and weekly charts and cumulative volume is very close to crossing the moving average and giving a volume buy signal. The price action can be seen best on the 30 minute point and figure chart. I attempted an entry on the break higher from the recent range but was whipsawed out of my position last week when it made the reversal down to 264.4. It has however, now reversed back into a column of Xs so I'm hoping it can hold the 265.5 support and break above the short term moving averages for a good move higher towards the 300 level again.

Anyway, we'll see how I do during the week.

 

[Pat494]

I am having a punt on Talk Talk this week

140.85
short
SL 150
TP 130

I am attaching the 1 hour chart. The customers are NOT satisfied with TT. Formerly satisfied customers that had accounts with companies swallowed up by TT are complaining it is slow to non-existant !!

 

[isatrader]

I am having a punt on Talk Talk this week

140.85
short
SL 150
TP 130

I am attaching the 1 hour chart. The customers are NOT satisfied with TT. Formerly satisfied customers that had accounts with companies swallowed up by TT are complaining it is slow to non-existant !!

Hi Pat, I had to search for this one as wasn't in my charts. But I found it and the Ticker is TALK.L

Here's your ATR targets:

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 3.86 (2.74%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 9.33 (6.62%)

-1x ATR: 144.86
1x ATR: 137.14
1.5x ATR: 135.21
2x ATR: 133.28

Good luck

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

Hi Guys,

Like the equities close on Friday, Oil very resilient. So..

Oil, June contract - long on a pull back to 109.60

- Contract change over
- 3 higher closes
- Fibs - Move off the 50% last week
- Equities back in long trend on Friday's close

Entry: 109.60
Stop: 106.30
Target: 120


Mike Hamilton

 

[isatrader]

Hi Guys,

Like the equities close on Friday, Oil very resilient. So..

Oil, June contract - long on a pull back to 109.60

- Contract change over
- 3 higher closes
- Fibs - Move off the 50% last week
- Equities back in leng trne on Friday's close

Entry: 109.60
Stop: 106.30
Target: 120


Mike Hamilton

Thanks Mike, here's your ATR targets for CL June Contract:

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 2.312 (2.11%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 5.3742 (4.90%)

-1x ATR: 107.29
1x ATR: 111.91
1.5x ATR: 113.07
2x ATR: 114.22

Good luck

 

[SlipperyC]

Hi isa,

Change of tune this week.

I'll see if this run up has anything left in it, so my trade will be;

Limit LONG DAX

Entry; 7260,
Stop; 7140
Target: 7400

Why? So many attempts at the 7200 area and resilience in other markets. Doesn't 'feel' right to me, but going short is getting me nowhere.

Me going long is obviously the black swan event that the global markets are waiting for in order to collapse to zero!! ;-)