Once A Year Buying Point Triggered

[bgold]

looking for online commodity spreadbetter

Only this morning I noticed the interesting dialogue in this Thread.
Shame as I have been playing in the QG's for past 3 weeks, admittedly with mixed success. A few nice scalps, like last Thursday evening for .42 when the March contract expired but also many trades stopped out. Suspect I am/was too biased towards the long side.

Anyway, I wondered if anyone can advise which spreadbetters facilitate online trading in fe the energies HU & HO, NG and Coffee. The futures for these are quite expensive/heavy. Fe Coffee is $375 per pt and trades 3-5pts a day. Which is about 2-3 the risk I want to assume in a commodities trade. Spreadbetting would be solution. I have a dormant account at Cantor but noticed that they still only give access to Coffee via telephone. Too cumbersome.

Feedback/tips, much appreciated.

 

[chindl]

Bgold
Have you tried Finspreads - not the best platform nor the tightest spreads, but they do some of the more difficult to find contracts. Also upgrading their system in the next few weeks. I'd also say that their spreads are tighter than cantor. Not tried D4Free, but they seem to quote a large number of contracts as well...
Chris

Peter Osgood RIP

 

[TWI]

Got IB monthly seasonal report yesterday.
Natgas has a 73% chance of rally in March. It is actually the strongest seasonal tendency of any commod for this month with an average upside of 1.8% and median return of 7.2%.
Historically WTI declines in Mar-3.7%/ -3% respectively.
Nothing much else shows a strong seasonal tendency in commod sector.

 

[bgold]

Bgold
Have you tried Finspreads - not the best platform nor the tightest spreads, but they do some of the more difficult to find contracts. Also upgrading their system in the next few weeks. I'd also say that their spreads are tighter than cantor. Not tried D4Free, but they seem to quote a large number of contracts as well...
Chris

Peter Osgood RIP

Chindl, Many thanks, contacted Finspreads, but as you say, I found the site and access a little dated. Will hold off and check again in few weeks if and when they have updated the platform. I fuly agree on the spreads on Cantor Index site, a real joke! 4 pts for NQ's is 3.5 pts wider than direct access (eg $70 per NQ future!!!) and 12pts on DOW!! Really wonder who executes their business with them? Well, that said, I was lured into aopening an account about 4yrs ago ;-)
Will check deal4free, tx

 

[TWI]

I heard from a big energy commercial today and they told me to sell every rally in NG. End Mar nat gas stocks will be a record in the ballpark of 1.7 tcf. In the US, NG, Coal and Resid will be fighting for demand
all summer long. This makes me les inclined to get back in long here.

 

[bgold]

Got IB monthly seasonal report yesterday.
Natgas has a 73% chance of rally in March. It is actually the strongest seasonal tendency of any commod for this month with an average upside of 1.8% and median return of 7.2%.
Historically WTI declines in Mar-3.7%/ -3% respectively.
Nothing much else shows a strong seasonal tendency in commod sector.

Another false start in Nat Gas :-(. Bot some before the storage data at 681 which seemed to be weaker than expected (missed an exit in the post data spike). Raised stop to 679 on bounce up to 688 but was taken out for a small loss when it all fell apart.

Twalker, may I ask what the IB monthly seasonal report is? I guess we have to wait a little longer before taking a more bullish stance.

 

[TWI]

It was a monthly report from an investment bank. In this case Barclays Capital.

 

[DaveT]

Interesting thread here.

I notice a few of you seem to be fighting the downtrend, plumping for a spot to go LONG at any incling of support.

I think we need to carve out a substantial base , broadly speaking, before any real snapback rally takes place. This could take several weeks range trading, IMO.

Here I present three views of Nat gas on the charts.

1) May Nat. Gas showing Momentum (10,20), Bollinger Bands with Keltner Channel.

Note the recent 'bullish' momentum divergence, but also see that the Boll. Bands have NOT yet closed in on the Keltner. We should see this before a real break higher - after some range trading.


2) May Nat Gas with 9,18,36 Day Moving Averages.

Note all MAs are pointing DOWN, all bearish and offering good resistance to any upthrust. Again,only, range trading (forming a good bottom) will flatten the 9-DMA out and prepare the market for a break above this line. Even then, we need to see the 9/18 DMA crossover as a true MA BUY signal. These things take time.

3) Nat GAs Weekly with 9,18,36 Week MAs

Similar here on the weekly - we need to build a BASE. By analogy, look at the SOYBEAN weekly chart after the 2004 collapse (4th Chart below).

 

[JumpOff]

OK, I did a little more research and it all makes sense to me now. Although consumers are buying heating oil like crazy in Jan and Feb, they are buying it from the wholesaler/distributor who locked in inventory and prices months ago to ensure enough supply to meet their needs.

JO

 

[starspacer]

Interesting thread here.

I notice a few of you seem to be fighting the downtrend, plumping for a spot to go LONG at any incling of support.

I think we need to carve out a substantial base , broadly speaking, before any real snapback rally takes place. This could take several weeks range trading, IMO.

Good points DaveT.

I think at these levels NatGas is as good a hedge as it gets against world disaster/terrorism.

No doubt that apart from the last couple of days, price action has been horrible. Fundamentals and technicals look horrible. In fact everything looks horrible, which is why I wouldn't short this market.

I have a small holding which I'll exit if 6 is broken. I'll take some profits if 7 is reached and continue holding a core position for at least 2 months.

Is anyone else holding a position?

 

[TWI]

Large commercials claiming that NG can go to 2.5...sounds crazy but they claim stocks are just too high to allow for any upside whatever seasonals suggest. I am flat and staying so until something decisive shows itself.

 

[bgold]

Large commercials claiming that NG can go to 2.5...sounds crazy but they claim stocks are just too high to allow for any upside whatever seasonals suggest. I am flat and staying so until something decisive shows itself.

You might be right. The whole energy complex feels like its close to major breakdown. The stocks still bounce on any bulish news but increasingly with less sparkle. Considering its volatility, gas remains an excellent trading vehicle. Just make sure to have an open mind and play both longs and shorts. Worked out well today. Anyway, twalker, let's hope we will all be able to ride that $ 4 tsunami if it indeed were to happen. Meanwhile intra-day volatility is still sufficient for some good set-ups.

DaveT, thanks for thorough analysis. I think your conclusion will proof to be spot. At best we still have to wait some months before rebound unless twalkers commercials proof to be right ...

 

[starspacer]

Large commercials claiming that NG can go to 2.5...sounds crazy but they claim stocks are just too high to allow for any upside whatever seasonals suggest. I am flat and staying so until something decisive shows itself.

Not crazy twalker, just unlikely ....unless we get recession. I trimmed my position a little today towards close.

 

[starspacer]

I exited all but a core position in overnight trading (there was a modest bounce).

I agree with your analysis bgold and DaveT. What troubles me about the long side (apart from terrible technicals and fundamentals) is that despite the massive recent fall, small speculators seem to be hanging on. Never a good sign as the large specs will try and take more of them out.

 

[bgold]

I exited all but a core position in overnight trading (there was a modest bounce).

I agree with your analysis bgold and DaveT. What troubles me about the long side (apart from terrible technicals and fundamentals) is that despite the massive recent fall, small speculators seem to be hanging on. Never a good sign as the large specs will try and take more of them out.

To confuse matters, wave count for gas can also be depicted as a5 wave down from the Dec peak of 11.650. This could mean that the downside is limited and that possibly the next big move in Natural Gas will be up. (might take a while). According to the Wave Principle, when a five-wave move ends, a correction occurs where a portion of the preceding move is retraced.

Therefore the most obvious Elliott wave target for the upcoming retracement could be as high as 9.910. It typically ends at or near the previous fourth wave extreme of one lesser degree. If however, the 5th wave extends, as it has in Nat Gas, the extreme of wave two of five is either the ultimate target for the whole A-B-C corrective wave or the termination point of its initial wave (i.e., wave A). instead therefore I would perhaps concetrate initially on 8.740, the extreme of wave 2 of v. Still a considerable move.

Yesterdays' price action in Natural Gas was interesting. While storage figures were bearish, prices recovered from the initilal tumble. Now that is bullish in my books. In the shorter time frame a bottom can also be counted into the recent 6.450 low. Is this the end of the December decline in Natural Gas? Based on wave analysis, I think a more bullish scenario can be painted. All we need now is confirming price action. A decisive move over 6.920? We'll see soon enough which way to trade this monster. I will try to have an open mind.

 

[bgold]

A decisive move over 6.920? We'll see soon enough which way to trade this monster. I will try to have an open mind.

Watch that 6.92. Thusfar QG's have traded at 7.01 before turning south. I had a small 10ct scalp. Bounce from oversold or something more. Well, the key is that it moves!! ;-)

 

[starspacer]

Watch that 6.92. Thusfar QG's have traded at 7.01 before turning south. I had a small 10ct scalp. Bounce from oversold or something more. Well, the key is that it moves!! ;-)

Core position moved nicely into profit and I'm not selling.

As I've said, a perfect hedge against global disaster.

Good luck

 

[CYOF]

Hi Starspacer,

How about taking up this thread again - I would like to learn something about Energy Commodity trading - or any other commodities for that matter - and will input some ideas in relation to Options on commodities.

What do you think?

Regards,

 

[techcherry]

agree as well ... a good thread ... sp and twi , is it just ng or wti as well you trade , what do u thing about todays selloff , good support on the 55 / 57 level? do u buy at this levels , even with this mild weather previsons for the next 7/10 days, even note the surplus in stocks is gone !??
any ideas?
please keep the good threads !