TheDuder_69
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No B.S. Day Trading
- Thread starter SFL Trader
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sounds like this dude just blew his account during a session of TA trading
He's not entirely wrong.
If you read Market wizards you'd find many successful traders dismiss TA is being almost useless. William Eckhardt says its as good as useless.
One of the godfathers of TA, trader vic says in the book trading on TA is not advisable.
Even the great Larry Williams said in his "make a million like Larry" seminar that TA is almost as good as useless and its the last thing he looks at when deciding on trades. He says its one big scammerole and admits to having being part of it for years.
Challenger
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fugly, can you please tell me the name of the book by vic trader? I am newbie. I need to find my path. Now I look at candles only and different time frames and nothing else. If when I start trading software and my instrument goes down for long time already (I check on different time frames) then I sell, if it goes up then I buy. I would like more precise entering. Especially on short time frames. Looking at Ninja Trader superDOM gives nothing, should I look at NT Level 2 tool to read the book?
TheDuder_69
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People do actually make serious money with TA trading (which makes them able to pay the rent and other stuff) so I can´t see what´s the deal to call it useless. If TA trading is just not your cup, than that´s fine too.
timsk
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Hi Challenger,
Welcome to T2W.
I might be wrong but, for the most part, I think SFL Trader's criticism of TA relates primarily to scalping. This is a style of trading which is fast and furious, where you're in and out of the market in a matter of minutes and where you're attempting to capture small price movements. Some people may say that TA is useless period, but they are in a minority. Most traders - including longer term day traders (5 min's to an hour or more) use it as their primary decision making tool. I'm not sure which book fugly was referring to in his post above but, certainly, in the one I read (albeit a long time ago) 'Trader Vic' studied TA in great depth and is a very accomplished expert. It's not for me to tell you what to do or not do but, to ignore TA completely would be a mistake, unless you're a scalper - IMO. And then, as a general rule of thumb, most traders would advise strongly against scalping for a newbie - especially if you're a home based retail trader. (Different story if you're in a bank or prop' shop with state of the art kit and professional training etc.) Anyway, the two books I have by Victor Sperandeo (aka 'Trader Vic') are:
'Trader Vic - Methods of a Wall Street Master'
'Trader Vic II - Principles of Professional Speculation'
Both are published by Wiley. If you want some other suggestions re. good books, this thread provides some good leads: [FAQ]Which books should a beginner read?
Enjoy!
Tim.
I never said its not my cup of tea. All I said is some well known traders share the same view as SFL Trader.
Jaydee
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Personally, I like to use all three bits of info when I'm trading - fundamentals, techs and orderflow. Fundamentals give me a feel of what's going on in the long run, technicals allow me to visualise several possibilities of what the market may actually do at specific points and, finally, the orderflow is what I use to finesse my entries (and sometimes direction).
A lot of TA is useless but, then again, most pretrade analysis is. Analysis is not trading and the two are very distant 2nd cousins. At the end of the day, trading is about exploiting an opposing player and minimising the amount you are being exploited. This means you can only make money when others get their stops triggered and not because some magical lines on a chart have crossed over.
A lot of TA is useless but, then again, most pretrade analysis is. Analysis is not trading and the two are very distant 2nd cousins. At the end of the day, trading is about exploiting an opposing player and minimising the amount you are being exploited. This means you can only make money when others get their stops triggered and not because some magical lines on a chart have crossed over.
wallstreet1928
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I disagree my friend , but difference of opinion is a source of mercy
visit my blog and you can see my historical results and analysis........I hit my daily target consistently utilising TA , not by playing poker(second guessing my opponents move).
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/uk-...alls-ftse-dax-s-p-aimed-help-new-traders.html
trade what you see and not what you think ........
the statement above sums up the argument
but please my friend, I respect your strategy
at the end of the day, its all about the bottom line
and if you are trading @ 2000 then your bottom line is much better than mine
on a good day of course........
P.S. how do you manage your risk? .............when do you interpret when to get in and out??
and have yo ever been vulnerable to a news event .....leaving yourself vulnerable to a spike which could severely dent your account?? !!
TheDuder_69
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I apologize, I admit I wasn't clear, but saying that I ment the thread starter, not you
.SFL Trader
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Prices don't follow trendlines. Trendlines follow prices. That's why trendlines change. And, of course, where your trendline is depends upon the scale of your chart. The trendline on a two-minute chart is much different than the one on a daily chart. Which one do I follow.....
SFL Trader
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sounds like this dude just blew his account during a session of TA trading
I blew plenty of money on TA many years ago before I figured out why the market does what it does. Hence the reason I advise not using it. And it's not because I was using the "wrong" TA.
SFL Trader
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A portion was made while trading for a prop firm and another portion was made after I left the firm. I literally started with a one lot and only moved up a few contracts at a time. I couldn't really tell you what my worst drawdown has been as I've never kept track. I once did something really stupid and lost somewhere around 20%...but that was a one time occurrence and was due to my being a moron. My general rule is to trade small enough so that if you lose twice as much as you think is possible, you still have bullets to fire (i.e. If you think there's no way you can go on a 20 tick losing streak, make sure you can lose 40 ticks and still have money to trade...after a long vacation and a serious re-evaluation of your strategy).
SFL Trader
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For wallstreet1028....
If TA works for you, great. But my point is that I've seen the market go down 20 and then rally 30 without ever hitting support or resistance or a trendline or a pivot, etc. So it's not just about picking bad entries due to watching TA. It's also about missing opportunities because you're not familiar with reading order flow. A scalper may make 12 ticks in an area where you don't even want to be involved because no indicators are lining up right.
I determine when to get in and out based on the order flow. Does it look like more money is interested in buying or selling? That's the question. I determine the amount of risk on the trade by knowing ahead of time where I'm wrong. If I think the market is going down to 06 here, then, based on what I know, it should not go up to 12 first. If it does, i'm wrong and I get out.
I do not trade 2000 but I've met people who have and they don't use charts.
I do not leave myself open to news events because I never hold a position into a number. I think that's lunacy. If you've ever seen the unemployment number miss the projection by 150K...and consequently witnessed the bonds jump 3 full points (96 ticks) in a matter of minutes...you understand why.
If TA works for you, great. But my point is that I've seen the market go down 20 and then rally 30 without ever hitting support or resistance or a trendline or a pivot, etc. So it's not just about picking bad entries due to watching TA. It's also about missing opportunities because you're not familiar with reading order flow. A scalper may make 12 ticks in an area where you don't even want to be involved because no indicators are lining up right.
I determine when to get in and out based on the order flow. Does it look like more money is interested in buying or selling? That's the question. I determine the amount of risk on the trade by knowing ahead of time where I'm wrong. If I think the market is going down to 06 here, then, based on what I know, it should not go up to 12 first. If it does, i'm wrong and I get out.
I do not trade 2000 but I've met people who have and they don't use charts.
I do not leave myself open to news events because I never hold a position into a number. I think that's lunacy. If you've ever seen the unemployment number miss the projection by 150K...and consequently witnessed the bonds jump 3 full points (96 ticks) in a matter of minutes...you understand why.
wallstreet1928
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thank you for replying my friend
Its always good to hear a success story after i get daily emails of help from people who have blown there trading accounts and lost £X thousand in a day .....
I wish you a prosperous year my friend, keep up the good work
I can't see how one can trade without looking at a chart. For me, for better or worse, as long as I trade shares I must use TA.
For investment I use FA and, oddly, none of mine are in the FT100 because none of these are going to grow to the extent that the smaller capitalised ones can and the only way they can be detected is by FA. However, in any turn of the economy the FT100 shares perform like a yo-yo which means that a lot of people pile into an out of them and , I suspect, not many use charts.
"Oils going to go up" If not oil, it's gold or whatever. That's not for me, though. I have to have a chart when trading otherwise I feel blind.
For investment I use FA and, oddly, none of mine are in the FT100 because none of these are going to grow to the extent that the smaller capitalised ones can and the only way they can be detected is by FA. However, in any turn of the economy the FT100 shares perform like a yo-yo which means that a lot of people pile into an out of them and , I suspect, not many use charts.
"Oils going to go up" If not oil, it's gold or whatever. That's not for me, though. I have to have a chart when trading otherwise I feel blind.
I have been experimenting using failed T.A patterns and it has been working out fairly well...the fact that so many short term traders use T.A makes it a method you cant really ignore.. I have been scanning the markets for failed patterns.. it's not a new strategy I know. lets say you have a bearish engulfing pattern on a stock (a normally bearish signal) and the next day the stock opens above the prior close and starts to rally.. i will then know that all the short term traders are short and will HAVE to cover pushing the stock higher.. with so many technical traders out there you know exactly what positions people will have and exatcly when they are in trouble!. while I personally believe that T.A has little predictive value i know that with so many people using it i would be foolish to ignore it completely!
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